[Public Opinion Briefing No. 118] The Evolution of the Ahn Cheol-soo Phenomenon? Continuity and Differentiation of the Ahn Cheol-soo Wave

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 118] Joint Project by EAI and Korea Research: July Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings After "Healing Camp": A Typhoon Among Progressive Supporters, a Gentle Breeze Among Moderates

2. Continuity and Differentiation Between the First and Second Ahn Waves

3. Stance on Candidacy: Increased Support After Publication of Book Urging Against Candidacy

4. July Political Indicators

1. Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings After "Healing Camp": A Typhoon Among Progressive Supporters, a Gentle Breeze Among Moderates

1. Simple Choice Among Multiple Candidates: Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo Both Rise

Compared to the previous month, Park increased by 4.3%p (35.1%→39.4%), Ahn by 6.0%p (21.4%→27.4%)

● In terms of simple approval ratings, which indicate the size of a candidate's independent support base, Park Geun-hye's upward trend, which had surged after the April 11 general election in the June survey, had stalled, dropping by 6.6%p to 35.1% from the previous month. However, in July, it rose by 4.3%p to 39.4%. In contrast, Ahn Cheol-soo, who is perceived to be making de facto presidential campaign moves following the publication of "Ahn Cheol-soo's Thoughts" and his subsequent appearance on "Healing Camp," saw a larger increase. His approval rating rose by 6.0%p from the previous month to 27.4%.

● Moon Jae-in narrowed the gap with Ahn Cheol-soo until before the March general election, but after the general election, he has been unable to gain momentum in the current Democratic United Party presidential primary process and has remained stagnant. In this survey, his approval rating dropped to 10.5%, similar to the June level. This indicates that his support has not translated into support for trailing candidates such as former representative Sohn Hak-kyu and Gyeongnam Governor Kim Doo-kwan, but has instead shifted to the undecided category. Chairman Moon Jae-in's approval rating remained almost unchanged at 11.2% in May and 12.0% in June, while former representative Sohn Hak-kyu garnered 1.1% and Governor Kim Doo-kwan 0.8%, failing to establish an independent support base.

[Figure 1] Presidential Approval Ratings in a Multiple-Choice Scenario (%)

Source: EAI·Korea Research Regular Survey, * March data is from the 1st General Election Panel Survey by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research; April data is from the 2nd Panel Survey

(* Don't know/No answer rates are not shown)

2. Primary Season: Who are the Leading Candidates in Each Camp? Party Supporters Favor Frontrunners

Saenuri Party Candidate Suitability: Park 60.3%, Kim 11.4%, Ahn 2.9%; 87.2% of Saenuri Party Supporters Favor Park Geun-hye

Opposition Unification Candidate Suitability: Ahn 37.5%, Moon 20.6%, Sohn 8.9%; 55.2% of Democratic Party Supporters Favor Ahn Cheol-soo

Democratic Party Candidate Suitability: Moon 41.5%, Sohn 15.8%, Kim Doo-kwan 6.4%; 62.6% of Democratic Party Supporters Favor Moon Jae-in

● In the survey for Saenuri Party candidate suitability, Park Geun-hye led with 60.3%, significantly ahead of Kim Moon-soo (11.4%) and Ahn Sang-soo (2.9%). Kim Tae-ho followed with 2.5%, and Im Tae-hee with 0.9%. This indicates Park Geun-hye's dominance as a Saenuri Party candidate is strengthening. In the June survey, Park received 54.2%, Kim Moon-soo 7.7%, Chung Mong-joon 7.3%, and Lee Jae-oh 2.3%. The departure of competing candidates Chung Mong-joon and Lee Jae-oh in July appears to have resulted in the absorption of their conservative support base. Among Saenuri Party supporters alone, a remarkable 87.2% responded that Park Geun-hye is suitable as the Saenuri Party candidate in the July survey, while only 7.3% chose Kim Moon-soo, showing a significant gap within the Saenuri Party's own base.

● Meanwhile, in the survey for opposition unification candidate suitability, Ahn Cheol-soo led with 37.5%, significantly ahead of Moon Jae-in (20.6%) and Sohn Hak-kyu (8.9%). Kim Doo-kwan, who had garnered attention, received only 4.6%, with other candidates trailing. While other candidates showed little change from June, Ahn Cheol-soo's rating increased by 5.9%p from 31.6%. In the July survey, even among Democratic Party supporters, the proportion supporting Ahn Cheol-soo, who is seen as more competitive than Democratic Party candidates, exceeded half at 55.2%. Based on public opinion alone, it is highly probable that Ahn Cheol-soo would be chosen as the opposition candidate if unification proceeds. On the other hand, Moon Jae-in received a very high approval rating as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate. Moon Jae-in led with 41.5%, significantly ahead of Sohn Hak-kyu (15.8%) and Kim Doo-kwan (6.4%). The gap widens further among Democratic Party supporters, with 62.6% deeming Moon Jae-in suitable as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate.

[Figure 2] Suitability Ratings for Saenuri Party, Opposition Unification, and Democratic Party Presidential Candidates (%)

Source: EAI·Korea Research Regular Survey, July 2012

3. Head-to-Head Matchups: Ahn Cheol-soo Edges Ahead Within Margin of Error; The Second Ahn Wave Remains in a Competitive Phase

Park Geun-hye 44.1% vs. Ahn Cheol-soo 47.8%, a reversal within the margin of error

Park Geun-hye vs. Moon Jae-in: 54.4% vs. 36.4%; Gap Has Not Narrowed Since General Election

First Ahn Wave (Dominant Period, September 2011 - General Election 2012): January - Park Geun-hye 35.6% vs. Ahn Cheol-soo 49.2%, a 13.6%p gap

● In a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, Ahn Cheol-soo led with 47.8% and Park Geun-hye with 44.1%, a reversal within the margin of error. As shown in [Figure 3], around September of last year, with Ahn Cheol-soo's consideration of running for Seoul Mayor, a competitive landscape was created against Park Geun-hye, who had been considered the frontrunner. After the October by-elections, Park Geun-hye experienced a decline in support, and the gap widened. By January of this year, Ahn Cheol-soo had a lead of 13.6%p over Park Geun-hye (49.2% vs. 35.6%). During this period, Moon Jae-in's support also rose, narrowing the gap with Park Geun-hye from over 25%p to 12.1%p at one point in January (Park 47.2% vs. Moon 35.1%) (Figure 4).

Second Ahn Wave (Competitive Phase, Post-General Election): Competition within the margin of error between Ahn and Park after the general election

● However, from January to the April general election, Park Geun-hye personally led the Saenuri Party's emergency committee during a crisis, spearheading the party's name change to Saenuri Party and the adoption of a platform emphasizing economic democratization. She also led the party to victory in the general election, where an overwhelming defeat was anticipated. Subsequently, the one-on-one matchup with Ahn Cheol-soo shifted back to a competitive phase within the margin of error. While Ahn Cheol-soo continued his external activities, such as giving lectures, without making a clear statement of his intentions, Park Geun-hye successfully restored her competitiveness against Ahn Cheol-soo, which had fallen to the mid-30% range, by leading party reforms and the general election campaign. The gap in approval ratings between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in also widened after the general election, reaching 21.6%p in the May survey. In this survey, the gap was 18%p, with Park Geun-hye at 54.4% and Moon Jae-in at 36.4%.

● Consequently, although Ahn Cheol-soo has succeeded in reversing the approval ratings against Park Geun-hye in a one-on-one matchup following the publication of "Ahn Cheol-soo's Thoughts" and his participation in "Healing Camp," he has not risen enough to completely escape the competitive phase of the second Ahn wave, which remains within the margin of error.

[Figure 3] Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo One-on-One Matchup (%) [Figure 4] Park Geun-hye vs. Moon Jae-in One-on-One Matchup (%)

2. Continuity and Differentiation Between the First and Second Ahn Waves

● Examining the public opinion distribution of the second Ahn wave reveals continuity and differentiation from the first Ahn wave in several aspects. Failure to consider these two aspects simultaneously will inevitably lead to an incorrect diagnosis of the current second Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon, significantly increasing the possibility of errors in predicting the subsequent presidential race.

1. Continuity: The "Three Discontents" (Political Distrust, Economic Dissatisfaction, Future Anxiety) are the Origin of the Ahn Wave

● The commonality between the current Ahn Cheol-soo support phenomenon and the pre-general election Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon is that, above all, the strengthening of Ahn Cheol-soo's support—the so-called 'Ahn Wave'—is a phenomenon created by distrust and dissatisfaction with existing politics and the current economic situation, along with anxiety about the future, i.e., the "Three Discontents" (3不). There has been no significant change in this regard.

[Figure 5] The "Three Discontents" and Ahn Cheol-soo Support (%)

(1) Economic Dissatisfaction (2) Government Distrust (3) Future Anxiety

Source: EAI·Korea Research Regular Survey, July 2012

55.0% of those pessimistic about the national economy support Ahn Cheol-soo

● As shown in [Figure 5], among those who believe the national economy has improved (6.9% of respondents) or is maintaining its current state (25.6%), Park Geun-hye receives majority support at 70.7% and 51.2% respectively. However, among those with economic dissatisfaction who believe the national economy has worsened (66.3% of respondents), Park Geun-hye receives 36.8% support, while Ahn Cheol-soo receives 55.0%.

57.5% of respondents who believe "The government represents a minority" support Ahn Cheol-soo

● Government distrust is also a source of the Ahn Wave. Among those who believe the government represents the general public (45.0% of respondents), Park Geun-hye receives 50.9% support and Ahn Cheol-soo 40.1%. In contrast, among those with government distrust who believe it represents a minority of specific groups (50.6% of respondents), Park Geun-hye receives 34.5% support and Ahn Cheol-soo 57.5%. Among the 4.4% who responded "Don't know," 62.1% supported Park Geun-hye and 21.6% supported Ahn Cheol-soo.

56.9% of those pessimistic about future social mobility support Ahn Cheol-soo

● Among those who believe social mobility is possible in the future (28.8% of respondents), 51.5% support Park Geun-hye, with only 37.4% supporting Ahn Cheol-soo. Conversely, among those who are pessimistic (64.0% of respondents), only 35.6% support Park Geun-hye, while 56.9% support Ahn Cheol-soo. Among the 7.3% who responded "Don't know," 76.8% supported Park Geun-hye and 12.5% supported Ahn Cheol-soo.

2. Differentiation: Increased Cohesion Among Progressive Supporters Compared to the First Wave, and Weakened Expansion Among Moderate/Conservative Supporters

● While Ahn Cheol-soo's competitiveness against Park Geun-hye has been restored following the publication of his book and his appearance on "Healing Camp," the composition of his support base shows significant changes compared to the period around the 2011 Seoul Mayoral by-election and the 2012 general election. Although the fundamental structure of his support base—predominantly favoring progressives and Democratic Party supporters, with some advantage among moderates and unaffluent voters, and a disadvantage among conservatives and Saenuri Party supporters—has not changed, there are notable differences in the cohesion between the first and second Ahn waves.

Ahn Cheol-soo's Support Increase After "Healing Camp": Effect of Progressive Supporter Cohesion, Not Base Expansion

● First, there is a pronounced phenomenon of Ahn Cheol-soo's support coalescing among progressive supporters and Democratic Party supporters, while Park Geun-hye's approval ratings have significantly weakened. Comparing this to the initial phase of the Ahn Wave in September 2011, the recent surge in support for Ahn Cheol-soo after the book publication and "Healing Camp" appears to be concentrated primarily among progressive supporters, rather than being a phenomenon across the entire electorate. In the September 2011 survey, the gap between Ahn Cheol-soo (56.3%) and Park Geun-hye (32.5%) among progressives was about 24%p. However, this progressive support has steadily strengthened, widening the gap to approximately 57%p in the July survey (Ahn Cheol-soo 74.7%, Park Geun-hye 18.0%). In terms of party support, in September 2011, the gap between Ahn Cheol-soo (68.9%) and Park Geun-hye (24.3%) among Democratic Party supporters was 45%p. In the July survey, Ahn Cheol-soo's support among Democratic Party supporters soared to 84.8%.

Weakened Erosion of Conservative Base by Ahn Cheol-soo: Overlap Between Ahn Cheol-soo and Park Geun-hye Supporters is an Optical Illusion

● Second, while Park Geun-hye's support has strengthened among conservatives, Ahn Cheol-soo's ability to erode this base has stagnated. In the September 2011 survey, Park Geun-hye received only 53.5% support, but this rose to 64.1% in the current survey. Even among Saenuri Party supporters, Park Geun-hye's approval rating rose from 74.7% in September to 81.0% in the current survey. In contrast, Ahn Cheol-soo's ability to penetrate these groups has stagnated. In the September survey, Ahn Cheol-soo recorded 29.1% support among conservatives, but in the current survey, this figure remained almost unchanged at 31.2%. Among Saenuri Party supporters, his support fell from 16.6% in September to 13.6% in the current survey.

Weakened Expansion of Support for Chairman Ahn Among Moderate/Unaffiliated Voters

● Third, during the first Ahn Wave, when the gap between Ahn Cheol-soo and Park Geun-hye was in double digits, Ahn Cheol-soo's advantage among moderate and unaffiliated voters continued to strengthen. However, after the general election, the gap has narrowed. This is even more evident in the July survey results, conducted immediately after the "Healing Camp" appearance and book release. In the September 2011 survey, moderates were evenly split between Ahn Cheol-soo (46.9%) and Park Geun-hye (42.5%). However, the gap steadily widened until the April 4.11 general election, and in the April survey conducted immediately after the general election, Ahn Cheol-soo led Park Geun-hye by approximately 12%p (Ahn Cheol-soo 54.1%, Park Geun-hye 41.6%). Among unaffiliated voters, the gap was about 14%p in the September 2011 survey (Ahn Cheol-soo 44.8%, Park Geun-hye 30.4%), but in the April 2012 survey, Ahn Cheol-soo led by a significant 34%p (Ahn Cheol-soo 62.4%, Park Geun-hye 28.6%). This explains why Ahn Cheol-soo maintained his lead despite strong conservative support for Park Geun-hye.

● However, despite the book becoming a bestseller in a short period and "Healing Camp" achieving viewership ratings close to 20%, leading to speculation about increased support among moderates and unaffiliated voters, the actual results show a significant narrowing of the approval rating gap between the two candidates compared to the April survey. Ultimately, the high interest in Ahn Cheol-soo, sparked by his appearance on "Healing Camp," is limited to a strong cohesion among progressive and Democratic Party supporters. It can be confirmed that this has not led to an expansion of support among moderate/unaffiliated voters or conservatives.

[Figure 6] Ideological Orientation and One-on-One Matchups (%)

(1) Progressive (2) Moderate (3) Conservative

[Figure 7] Party Support and One-on-One Matchups (%)

(1) Democratic Party Supporters (2) Unaffiliated Voters (3) Saenuri Party Supporters

Source: EAI·Korea Research Regular Survey

3. Reasons for the Stagnation of Ahn Cheol-soo's Expansion Potential

● Despite the intense focus on Ahn Cheol-soo, why has his potential to expand support beyond progressive/Democratic Party supporters to include moderate/unaffiliated and conservative/Saenuri Party supporters stagnated or weakened? Here, we will infer several reasons.

Ahn Cheol-soo's Progressive Stance Since the 2011 Seoul Mayoral Election

● Above all, the Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon was a result of concentrated expression of distrust in politics in general and a reaction against ideological polarization, rather than a binary confrontation between progressive-conservative or ruling-opposition parties. This can be interpreted as a result of strengthening pro-opposition party moves in the 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election and the April 11 general election in 2012. These pro-opposition moves led to a rapid consolidation of opposition party supporters who, despite strong sentiment for punishing the incumbent government, did not trust the current Democratic United Party as an alternative.

● The strengthening of these pro-opposition moves appears to have been primarily influenced by the realistic situation where his chances of winning would diminish if he ran independently. Figure 8 shows that in a three-way race, candidate Park Geun-hye obtained 43.8%, independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo 33.9%, and Democratic Party candidate Moon Jae-in 13.0%. This indicates that it would be difficult for Ahn Cheol-soo or the Democratic Party candidate to defeat Park Geun-hye alone without an alliance. Consequently, in a survey from October 2011, early in the Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon, 42.0% of public opinion favored Ahn running independently, while only 37.6% favored a unified candidacy with an opposition party. However, in the current survey, the opposite was true: 42.3% favored a unified candidacy with an opposition party, the highest proportion, while 35.9% favored running independently, a decrease from the early period. Nevertheless, 21.9% still responded that they did not know, suggesting that people are conflicted and have not yet formed a clear stance regarding Ahn Cheol-soo's political trajectory.

Figure 8: Support Ratings in a Three-Way Race (%) Figure 9: Ahn Cheol-soo's Path to Candidacy (%)

Source: EAI·Korea Research, July 2012 Regular Survey

Conservative/Centrist Backlash, Strengthening of Support for Park Geun-hye

● However, this strengthening of pro-opposition moves has stimulated a sense of crisis among conservatives, leading to a consolidation of support for candidate Park Geun-hye as pro-opposition moves intensify. It also appears to have created a certain distance for centrist/unaffiliated voters who seek balance between ruling and opposition parties, and between progressives and conservatives. Notably, the swift resolution of internal conflicts within the Saenuri Party regarding the general election rules and the withdrawal of candidates like Chung Mong-joon and Lee Hoi-chang, following the Saenuri Party's victory in the April 11 general election and the subsequent presidential race, seems to have been a result of the strong potential competition from Ahn Cheol-soo.

3. Stance on Candidacy: Public Opinion Favoring Non-Candidacy Increased After Book Publication

- Should run: 37.3% vs. Should not run: 43.4%, Don't know: 19.3%

● The biggest obstacle to Ahn Cheol-soo's expanding support is the considerable public desire for him not to run, regardless of their support for him. In this survey, when asked whether Ahn Cheol-soo should run or not, 43.4% of all respondents answered that he should not run, while 37.3% believed he should run, and 19.3% were undecided. Among Park Geun-hye's supporters, 74.1% stated he should not run, whereas 63.6% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters favored his candidacy.

● However, 17.8% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters believe he should not run, and 18.6% are still undecided. Approximately 36.4% are opposed or have reserved their stance. Particularly among undecided voters, who constitute 8.1% of all respondents and are unsure whom to choose between the two, 26.8% favored his candidacy, 33.8% opposed it, and 39.4% were undecided.

Table 1: Ahn Cheol-soo's Stance on Candidacy by 1:1 Matchup Supporter (%)

● Notably, as shown in Figure 10, public opinion favoring Ahn Cheol-soo's presidential candidacy is steadily increasing, particularly among opposition party supporters. Until the April 11 general election, public opinion against his candidacy was also continuously decreasing, strengthening expectations for his candidacy. However, after the general election, especially following the recent book publication and television appearances, the increase in opinion against his candidacy is a significant burden for Ahn Cheol-soo if he is considering running.

Figure 10: Changes in Stance on Ahn Cheol-soo's Presidential Candidacy (%)

Reasons for Hesitation Regarding Ahn Cheol-soo's Candidacy: Concerns about Lack of Political Experience and Power Base

"Will do better" 34.0% vs. "Concerned" 56.3%

● While expectations for Ahn Cheol-soo's candidacy have increased, the recent rise in negative sentiment towards his candidacy can be attributed to the fact that concerns raised about Ahn Cheol-soo have not been actively addressed, as he has primarily focused on off-the-record politics.

● Regarding the frequently raised concern of "lack of political experience or power base," only 34.0% responded that he "would likely do better in governing," while 56.3% expressed concern, stating "it is concerning as state administration cannot be done alone." Among Park Geun-hye's supporters, 78.7% expressed concern, whereas among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, 58.5% believed he would do better. However, 35.8% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters expressed concern, and 5.7% were undecided, indicating that nearly four out of ten supporters were lukewarm. Furthermore, among undecided voters who have not yet chosen a candidate, 22.9% believed he would do better, and 50.0% expressed concern. Therefore, if Ahn Cheol-soo decides to officially enter the presidential race, he will need to focus on demonstrating his political capabilities, not just his policy expertise, to surpass the second wave of the "Ahn Cheol-soo syndrome." Additionally, there is concern that if Ahn Cheol-soo enters politics, he may be influenced by the negative practices of the existing political establishment, thereby eroding the public trust and expectations he has built.

Table 2: Evaluation of Ahn Cheol-soo's Lack of Political Experience/Power Base (%)

4. Political Indicators for July

Party Support: Transition to a Two-Party System with Saenuri Party Leading by Approximately 10%p After the April 11 General Election

Saenuri Party: 39.1% immediately after April 11 → May 47.5% → June 45.2% → July 44.0%

Democratic United Party: 31.9% → 33.0% → 34.2% → 33.8%

Unified Progressive Party: 9.7% → 4.5% → 2.5% → 5.0%

● The Saenuri Party's lead in support ratings continued in July. The Democratic United Party, which showed comparable support ratings to the Saenuri Party at the beginning of the year, has only maintained its existing support, while the Saenuri Party has solidified the gains made after the April 11 general election.

● Support ratings, which remained around 30% before the April 11 general election, rose to 39.1% immediately after the election. In May, when the opposition party faced a significant leadership vacuum, support surged to 47.5%. Although it slightly decreased in the June survey to 45.2%, it recorded 44.0% in the July survey, recovering to the party support levels seen in 2007-2008. In contrast, while the Democratic Party has maintained a gradual upward trend since the March survey, it is generally trailing the Saenuri Party by about 10%p.

● In particular, the decline in support for the Unified Progressive Party, a key component of the opposition alliance, has led to a rapid shift from a three-party system to a two-party system, rendering the effectiveness of opposition unity questionable. That is, before the April 11 general election, the combined support for the Democratic United Party and the Unified Progressive Party surpassed that of the Saenuri Party. Although the Unified Progressive Party's support rose to 5.0% this month from 2.5% last month, considering the margin of error, it is difficult to definitively confirm an increase in support. Especially, the rejection of the expulsion motions for lawmakers Lee Seok-ki and Kim Jae-yeon just before the survey has intensified backlash from Unified Progressive Party members, including resignations and suspension of party dues payments. It appears that this public sentiment has not been fully reflected in this survey.

Presidential Approval Rating Down 8.3%p from Previous Month to 23.9%

● Meanwhile, President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating has significantly declined compared to June, dropping by 8.3%p from the previous month to 23.9%. This appears to be a result of the arrest of his elder brother, Lee Sang-deuk, a series of corruption scandals involving 청와대 (Cheong Wa Dae) officials, and the worsening economic conditions.

Figure 11: Changes in Party Support Ratings (%)

*Note: March and April surveys are results from the 2012 Election Panel Survey by EAI·SBS·JoongAng Ilbo·Korea Research.

Figure 12: Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings (%)