[Briefing on Public Opinion No. 111] Causes and Prospects of a Competitive Political Landscape

[Briefing on Public Opinion No. 111] Joint Panel Survey of the 2012 General and Presidential Elections by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Hankook Research

1. Electoral Landscape

2. Prospects for the April 11 General Election: Electoral Fluidity Remains

1. A Competitive Electoral Landscape: From an Overwhelming Opposition Advantage to a Close Contest

● The 19th general election contrasts with the 18th general election in several respects. Although the opposition was expected to have an advantage in the final stages of the election due to the revelation of the Prime Minister's Office's surveillance of civilians, a close contest between the ruling and opposition parties has been maintained.

● In terms of party support for the general and proportional representation votes in this general election, the Saenuri Party and the Democratic Party are neck and neck. When including progressive parties such as the Unified Progressive Party, the opposition holds an advantage. However, unlike the 2007 and 2008 general elections, there is no overwhelming support for the Grand National Party, which can be considered a balanced state overall.

● In the 18th general election, public opinion favored supporting the ruling Grand National Party. In the 18th general election, held early in the Lee Myung-bak administration, support for the Grand National Party was 41.8%, more than double the 19.7% for the Democratic Party. However, in this survey, support for the Saenuri Party was 30.0% and for the Democratic United Party was 29.0%, a close race. Unlike the 2007 election where public opinion to judge the participatory government led to the selection of the Grand National Party as an alternative, voters are currently hesitant to accept the opposition party as a viable alternative. Comparing party favorability scores, the Grand National Party led by more than 10 points in the 18th general election, but in the 19th general election, the Saenuri Party scored 47 points and the Democratic United Party scored 50 points, indicating a close race.

● In the 18th general election, support for the Grand National Party among voters in their 20s and 40s surpassed that for the Democratic Party. The Grand National Party's dominance was evident across all age groups. However, in the 19th general election, there is a significant generational divide, with the Democratic United Party leading among those in their 20s and 40s, and the Grand National Party leading among those in their 50s and 60s. This foreshadows serious political conflict leading up to the December presidential election.

[Figure 1] Preference for District/Proportional Representation Votes in the 19th General Election

Note: Responses from those intending to vote.

[Figure 2] Comparison of Preferred Candidates by Generation for District Representation

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[Figure 3] Favorability Score (Converted to a 100-point scale: 0 = Very Unfavorable, 50 = Neutral, 100 = Very Favorable)

● In April 2007 and April 2012, at eight months before the presidential election, presidential approval ratings were similar: 29.8% for former President Roh Moo-hyun and 30.8% for President Lee Myung-bak. The consensus on judging the government was also similar, at 60.0% in the 2007 survey and 63.0% in the 2012 survey. While the positive evaluation (expectation) of the opposition's candidate unification, achieved with difficulty, has indeed increased compared to April 2007 (when it was for the pro-government camp), it is only 50.7%, a decrease of 18.3 percentage points compared to the 2010 local elections, which the opposition won. When combining those who oppose or are indifferent, it approaches a majority.

● In terms of party support, the Grand National Party's support rate in the April 2007 survey was 46.8%, nearly a majority. In contrast, the current survey shows 30.4% for the Saenuri Party, 28.1% for the Democratic Party, and 4.9% for the Unified Progressive Party. Combining the Democratic Party and the Unified Progressive Party, the opposition holds an equal or slightly leading position, indicating a balanced situation in terms of party support base. The proportion of undecided voters is also higher compared to the 2007 presidential election landscape.

[Figure 4] Judgment of Government and Support for Opposition Candidate Unification

Note: Candidate unification options analyzed as agreement/disagreement for the 17th presidential election, positive/negative evaluation for the June 2nd local elections, and desirability for the 19th general election.

[Figure 5] Party Support Rate Difference: 2007-2012

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2. Factors Contributing to the Emergence of a Competitive Landscape Favoring the Opposition

1) Coexistence of Judgment of MB's Mismanagement and Opposition Party Scrutiny: Conflicting Attitudes

● This appears to be the result of conflicting attitudes where both the call for judgment of the current administration and criticism of an irresponsible opposition party coexist. When cross-analyzing the judgment of the MB administration and the veto of an irresponsible opposition party using a 2x2 matrix, we can categorize respondents into those with a one-sided call for MB's judgment (disagreeing with opposition party veto), a one-sided opposition party veto (disagreeing with MB judgment), those with a conflicting stance (agreeing with both), and those with no stance (disagreeing with both). Among these, those who agree with the call for MB's judgment but also agree with the veto of the opposition party, arguing that votes should not be given to an irresponsible opposition, constitute the majority at 38.4%. One-sided MB judgment was 27.2%, one-sided opposition party veto was 22.8%, and those who did not agree with either stance were the smallest group at 11.7%. The fact that a majority holds a conflicting stance on the two main issues of this election—judgment of the government and veto of the opposition party—and that the support for these opposing views is similar, appears to be a factor driving the current balanced state.

[Figure 6] Perception Types Based on Attitudes Toward Government Judgment/Opposition Party Veto

Note: Analysis excludes 124 respondents who answered 'don't know' or 'no response'.

● Notably, these conflicting attitudes were more prevalent among the 20s and 40s, known as opposition party supporters, and among the ideologically progressive, compared to the 50s and 60s or the ideologically conservative. Conversely, the call for government judgment was relatively higher among the 30s and 40s and progressives, while the opposition party veto was relatively higher among the 50s and 60s and conservatives. Among those in their 20s, voters who held a negative attitude towards both parties was close to a majority, rather than a one-sided call for judgment.

● In terms of party support, these conflicting attitudes are creating a middle ground of undecided voters, rather than a concentration on a specific party. The direction of these voters is expected to break the current balance and play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 19th general election. They harbor distrust and anxiety towards both camps, are resistant to the unchecked dominance of any single force, and are likely to engage in 'balancing' votes to prevent excessive concentration of power in one party.

[Table 1] Attitudes Toward Ruling and Opposition Party Election Campaigns by Generation/Ideology

[Table 2] Party Support by Attitude Toward Ruling/Opposition Party Judgment

2) Failed Nominations by Ruling and Opposition Parties and Diminished Power of Candidate Unification

● Contrary to the initial expectation of an overwhelming opposition advantage early this year, the gap has narrowed as the election campaign began. This is attributed to the Saenuri Party's relatively smooth nomination process under its interim committee and name change, while the Democratic Party and other opposition parties experienced internal divisions during nominations and controversies over vote manipulation during candidate unification, leading to alienation of opposition supporters and undecided voters. In this survey, the evaluation of the Saenuri Party's nomination process was 32.4%, and for the Democratic Party, it was 27.1%, indicating a slightly more favorable evaluation for the Saenuri Party.

● This indicates that the evaluation of the Saenuri Party's nomination process has worsened retrospectively compared to the favorable evaluations of the Democratic Party's nomination process in various surveys conducted in March. This appears to be a result of controversies surrounding candidates such as Son Su-jo and Moon Dae-sung. However, internally, 65.2% of Saenuri Party supporters evaluated their party's nomination positively, while only 47.3% of Democratic Party supporters evaluated their party's nomination positively, confirming the severe internal divisions within the Democratic Party's nomination process.

● Furthermore, the weakened legitimacy of the candidate unification process between the Democratic United Party and the Unified Progressive Party, marred by controversies such as the alleged manipulation of public opinion polls by Representative Lee Jung-hee's office, is another factor that enabled the Saenuri Party to catch up. As noted earlier, not only has the positive evaluation of opposition candidate unification decreased compared to the 2010 local elections, but it also failed to exceed a majority among undecided voters, in particular.

[Figure 7] Evaluation of Both Parties' Nominations

[Figure 8] Evaluation of DUP + UPP Candidate Unification

3. Prospects for the April 11 General Election: Opposition Gains Momentum, Ruling Party Seeks a Comeback

1) Impact of the Civilian Surveillance Scandal

● “Bad news for the ruling party, good news for the opposition”: As the election campaign began, the civilian surveillance scandal involving the opposition and KBS's new union dominated the major media. The direction of this issue's impact on the election is relatively clear. Illegal surveillance of civilians occurred under the current administration, and suspicions of a cover-up have emerged. The revelation of records of "approximately 2,600 cases of illegal surveillance" provided an opportunity for the opposition, which had struggled to reignite the call for government judgment, and was undoubtedly significant bad news for the ruling party, which had been steadily narrowing the gap under the leadership of Park Geun-hye. This is particularly true as it could sway undecided voters in the Seoul metropolitan area, who are sensitive to challenges against democratic values, and those with conflicting attitudes, towards judging the government.

● However, the impact of the civilian surveillance scandal is diminishing compared to its initial revelation. Most importantly, the Blue House revealed that approximately 2,200 of the 2,600 cases of illegal surveillance records were from the Roh Moo-hyun administration. By having the opposition acknowledge this, the Blue House and the Saenuri Party were able to counter the narrative by stating that illegal surveillance also occurred during the participatory government era, thus escaping a situation of being solely blamed.

● Meanwhile, the opposition, by focusing all its efforts on the civilian surveillance issue, aimed to reignite the call for government judgment. However, it appears that this has not elicited the expected response from voters. When asked about the most important issues for the general election in this survey, issues related to people's livelihoods and the economy, such as economic growth (22.4%), regional development pledges (17.8%), and welfare issues (13.3%), were considered more important than political issues like civilian surveillance and power corruption (13.4%) or the KORUS FTA (12.1%). There is a significant possibility that if both ruling and opposition parties become solely engrossed in current political issues, it could fuel voter dissatisfaction and cynicism. It is particularly important to consider that the middle ground and undecided voters tend to prioritize economic and livelihood-related issues over the Blue House surveillance issue.

● Although the scandal's impact has lessened, this issue is relatively advantageous for the opposition. After all, evidence of civilian surveillance has emerged under the current administration, and the strong sentiment for government judgment must be considered. Furthermore, the Blue House's direct confrontation with the opposition has inadvertently amplified the call for government judgment, contradicting the Saenuri Party's strategy of downplaying it and focusing on "self-reflection and change" to gain an advantage. The ruling party should recall that in the 2010 local elections, they initially had an advantageous position but shifted the narrative to judging the participatory government and employing aggressive security rhetoric, which ultimately triggered a last-minute check from ambivalent voters.

● Although the controversy over the

[Figure 9] Most Important Issues in This General Election (%)

2) Ideological Convergence and Conflict: Caution is Needed in Ideological Framing

● While the differences in voting preferences by ideology are widening, voters' ideological attitudes are proving to be very flexible. That is, rather than thinking within the framework of a progressive-conservative dichotomy, they exhibit complex and ambivalent attitudes that transcend ideological boundaries on key issues. When asked about voters' attitudes toward the KORUS FTA, economic democratization represented by chaebol regulation, North Korea policy, and welfare policies—issues that could become points of contention before and after the election, leading up to the next presidential election—the results show that while a majority hold conservative attitudes on the KORUS FTA and welfare policies, a majority hold progressive-leaning attitudes on chaebol regulation and North Korea policy.

● Regarding the KORUS FTA, 6.9% favored immediate abolition, and 34.9% favored renegotiation and re-ratification. However, 46.6% favored implementation first and subsequent adjustments, and 8.6% favored implementation as is, indicating that a majority (55.2%) support implementing the ratified agreement. On the controversial issue of welfare, only 29.8% supported the government providing universal welfare services such as healthcare, childcare, and education. In contrast, selective welfare, which focuses on urgent areas and specific demographics, received support from 69.4%.

● Conversely, regarding North Korea policy, 61.7% supported a conciliatory approach emphasizing exchange and cooperation, while 35.6% demanded a hardline response, indicating a majority favoring a moderate stance. Notably, on the issue of chaebol reform, which has been a major point of contention in this election, 53.5% believe that regulation needs to be maintained at least at the current level or strengthened (10.9% maintain current level, 42.6% strengthen regulation). Conversely, 42.8% believe that chaebol regulation should be minimized or relaxed (36.3% limited to unfair practices, 6.5% complete deregulation).

● In particular, regarding chaebol regulation, a significant change is evident compared to the 2008 survey. In 2008, only 35.3% believed that chaebol regulation should be maintained at the current level or strengthened (14.6% maintain current level, 20.7% strengthen regulation), while 53.6% believed that regulation should be minimized or relaxed (48.7% limited to unfair practices, 14.9% complete deregulation). By party support, in the 2008 general election, 51.0% of Unified Democratic Party supporters favored maintaining or strengthening regulation, and this figure remained largely unchanged at 55.3% in the 2012 survey. However, among Saenuri Party supporters, the proportion favoring maintaining or strengthening regulation increased by nearly 20 percentage points, from 24.3% to 43.3%. This confirms that the gap in perceptions based on party support and ideological orientation is narrowing.

[Figure 10] Attitudes Toward Key Policy/Ideological Issues (%)

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● Concernant l'ALE États-Unis-Corée, 6,9 % ont exprimé la nécessité d'une abrogation immédiate, et 34,9 % ont plaidé pour une renégociation suivie d'une re-ratification. En revanche, 46,6 % ont proposé une mise en œuvre prioritaire suivie d'une amélioration, et 8,6 % ont souhaité une mise en œuvre telle quelle. Ainsi, une majorité (55,2 %) est favorable à la mise en œuvre de l'accord déjà ratifié. Par ailleurs, concernant la question controversée de la politique sociale, seulement 29,8 % soutiennent l'idée que le gouvernement devrait fournir universellement des services sociaux tels que les soins de santé, la garde d'enfants et l'éducation, tandis que 69,4 % soutiennent la politique de protection sociale ciblée, axée sur les secteurs et les groupes les plus urgents.

● En revanche, concernant la politique envers la Corée du Nord, 61,7 % soutiennent une politique d'apaisement visant à renforcer les échanges et la coopération, tandis que 35,6 % appellent à une réponse ferme, indiquant une majorité d'attitudes modérées. En particulier, sur la question de la réforme des conglomérats, qui a été le principal enjeu de cette élection, 53,5 % (maintien du niveau actuel 10,9 %, renforcement de la réglementation 42,6 %) estiment qu'une réglementation au moins supérieure au niveau actuel est nécessaire, tandis que 42,8 % (limitation aux réglementations inéquitables 36,3 %, suppression totale des réglementations 6,5 %) estiment que la réforme des conglomérats devrait être minimisée ou assouplie.

● En particulier, concernant la réglementation des conglomérats, une différence significative par rapport à l'enquête de 2008 est perceptible. Au total, seulement 35,3 % ont répondu que la réglementation des conglomérats devrait être maintenue au niveau actuel ou renforcée (maintien du niveau actuel 14,6 %, renforcement de la réglementation 20,7 %), tandis que 53,6 % ont répondu qu'elle devrait être minimisée ou assouplie (limitation aux réglementations inéquitables 48,7 %, suppression totale des réglementations 14,9 %). En analysant par soutien aux partis politiques, lors des élections générales de 2008, 51,0 % des partisans du Parti Démocratique Unifié soutenaient le maintien/renforcement de la réglementation, et ce chiffre est resté inchangé à 55,3 % dans l'enquête de 2012. Cependant, parmi les partisans du Saenuri Party, le soutien au maintien/renforcement de la réglementation est passé de 24,3 % à 43,3 %, soit une augmentation de près de 20 points de pourcentage. Il est confirmé que l'écart de perception entre le soutien aux partis et l'orientation idéologique se réduit.

3) Évolution des facteurs déterminant le vote des électeurs : Élections générales de 2008 « Partis » → Élections générales de 2012 « Personnalités »

● Il est également nécessaire d'examiner l'évolution des facteurs déterminant le vote des électeurs comme facteur d'instabilité de cette élection. Dans le cas des élections générales de 2008, le vote était moins fluctuant car l'opinion publique favorisait le choix des candidats en fonction de leur parti, centré sur le discours de jugement du gouvernement et l'alternative au Grand Parti National. Dans l'enquête de 2008, le parti politique a été cité comme critère de choix du candidat par 41,2 %, et la capacité/l'expérience du candidat par 32,2 %, ces deux facteurs étant les principaux déterminants. La moralité (7,4 %), l'idéologie et les promesses du candidat (7,4 %), et la probabilité de victoire (5,9 %) n'étaient pas des facteurs majeurs.

[Figure 11] Évolution des critères de choix des candidats : 2008-2012

Note : Les résultats de l'enquête portent sur 997 personnes ayant décidé de leur candidat préféré en 2008 et 1758 personnes ayant l'intention de voter en 2012.

● Cependant, dans l'enquête de 2012, la proportion de réponses considérant le parti d'appartenance est tombée à 18,5 %, tandis que la capacité/l'expérience du candidat a été citée par 36,0 %, recevant le plus grand soutien. Par ailleurs, la moralité et l'idéologie/politique, qui étaient des facteurs périphériques en 2008, ont été citées respectivement par 20,4 % et 19,7 %, montrant une influence non négligeable aux côtés du facteur du parti politique.

● En conséquence, le fait que les réponses indiquant une volonté de voter en considérant divers facteurs liés aux candidats, plutôt qu'une confrontation entre partis, constituent la majorité, devrait atténuer l'impact de la confrontation globale entre le parti au pouvoir et l'opposition sur le vote des électeurs dans chaque circonscription électorale. Cela devrait agir comme un facteur d'augmentation de la volatilité électorale.

4) Effet d'augmentation du taux de participation

● Une autre variable qui déterminera l'issue de cette élection est le taux de participation. Dans une situation où les préférences de vote diffèrent nettement selon les générations et les idéologies, la mobilisation des électeurs au sein des bases de soutien des partis est une variable qui influence grandement l'élection. Le fait que le parti d'opposition ait obtenu des résultats favorables dans diverses élections depuis 2010 peut être largement attribué à l'effet d'augmentation du taux de participation, en particulier parmi les jeunes.

● En ce qui concerne l'intention de vote, en se basant sur l'intention de vote active « Je voterai absolument », et en examinant l'intention de vote avant l'élection lors des précédentes enquêtes par panel, 57,8 % en moyenne ont déclaré qu'ils participeraient absolument au vote lors de l'enquête générale sur les élections générales de 2008. Ce chiffre est passé à 63,8 % lors des élections locales de 2010, où la participation des jeunes a commencé à se démarquer, et a atteint 75,5 % dans l'enquête actuelle.

● Bien que la proportion de personnes ayant une intention de vote active ait augmenté uniformément dans toutes les tranches d'âge par rapport aux élections locales précédentes, l'augmentation est particulièrement remarquable chez les personnes dans la vingtaine. Ce chiffre est passé de 34,8 % dans l'enquête de 2008 à 49,0 % dans l'enquête de 2010, et à 62,1 % dans l'enquête actuelle. Cela semble être le résultat d'une augmentation de l'efficacité politique, due à la perception que la participation au vote peut entraîner des changements, à l'intensification des campagnes de participation volontaire au vote ciblant les jeunes et aux activités de mobilisation des partis.

● Cependant, il est douteux que cela favorise unilatéralement l'opposition, car non seulement la participation des jeunes a augmenté, mais aussi celle des personnes âgées par rapport aux élections précédentes. De plus, bien que les personnes dans la vingtaine, qui ont montré la plus forte augmentation, aient une forte tendance à soutenir l'opposition, il existe également un grand nombre d'électeurs contradictoires qui ont une forte méfiance à la fois envers le parti au pouvoir et l'opposition. Le bilan de l'augmentation du taux de participation deviendra plus clair en fonction du résultat de la lutte entre le parti au pouvoir et l'opposition pour gagner le soutien de ces électeurs contradictoires pendant la période restante de la campagne électorale.

[Figure 12] Évolution du taux d'intention de vote active