Briefing on Public Opinion No. 101: The Economy and Quality of Life are the Top National Agendas

Briefing on Public Opinion No. 101: Joint Project of EAI, YTN, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research, July Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

Pyeongchang Effect: MB's Approval Rating Returns to the 40% Range and the Rise of Moon Jae-in

1. Top National Priority Agendas: Clear Emphasis on the Economy (Polarization, Economic Growth, Quality of Life Improvement)

2. Regarding the Next Presidential and General Elections: Park Geun-hye Leads, Sohn Hak-kyu Stagnates, Moon Jae-in Rises

3. Key Political Indicators: Pyeongchang Effect Returns MB's Approval Rating to the 40% Range, Gap Between Grand National Party and Democratic Party Narrows Among Moderates

【Top National Priority Agendas】 The Issue is the Economy - Worsening Perceived Economy

Focus on “Resolving Polarization, Economic Growth, Improving Quality of Life”; Concern over Polarization Specifically Increased from 20.7% in February to 32.8%

Compared to the February Survey, “Strengthening National Security” and “Improving Inter-Korean Relations” Have Plummeted in Priority: From 4th and 6th to 10th and 7th, Respectively

● Examining the top national agenda items chosen by the public at a point one and a half years before the end of President Lee Myung-bak's term, we find that 32.8% chose alleviating polarization, 15.6% economic growth, and 12.8% improving the quality of life. Comprehensively considering macro and individual perspectives, 61.4% of respondents selected economic agendas. Notably, the proportion of respondents choosing to alleviate economic polarization has significantly surged to 32.8% in this survey, compared to 23.2% in the December 2010 survey and 20.7% in the February 2012 survey.

● In contrast, diplomatic and security agendas such as improving inter-Korean relations, strengthening national security, and enhancing international competitiveness are perceived by the public as lower priority national tasks. In the survey conducted last December, in the aftermath of the Yeonpyeong shelling incident, responses favoring inter-Korean relations (14.8%) and strengthening national security (11.1%) ranked relatively high at 2nd and 5th, respectively. Even in the February survey, strengthening national security (10.0%) and improving inter-Korean relations (8.0%) were considered relatively important national agendas, ranking 4th and 6th, respectively, despite a slight decrease in response proportions. However, in this July survey, improving inter-Korean relations ranked 7th with 4.5%, and strengthening national security received the lowest response rate among the options at 3.5%. National integration at 8.1% (4th) and political reform at 7.7% (5th) and educational reform at 7.6% (6th) filled the void left by security-related agendas.

[Table 1] Top National Agendas Since December 2010 (%)

Source: EAI · Korea Research December 2010, EAI · YTN · JoongAng Ilbo · Korea Research February 2011 Public Opinion Barometer Surveys

No Difference in Top National Agendas Based on Socioeconomic Variables and Political Tendencies

● The reason why economic agendas are being selected as top national priorities from both macro and individual perspectives is the widespread public consensus that the perceived economy has worsened. Prices are rising sharply, and the narrow job market shows no signs of widening. News about the global economic situation is also concerning. While the United States avoided default, a credit rating downgrade was unavoidable. The possibility of an economic crisis originating in Europe continues to be mentioned.

● As if to prove this, the public's prioritization of economic agendas is not limited to specific strata. Analysis based on key socioeconomic variables such as age and household income, as well as key political variables like ideological orientation and party affiliation, confirms the public's high regard for the economic sphere.

● Among socioeconomic variables, a generational breakdown reveals that alleviating economic polarization, economic growth, and improving the quality of life are generally considered the top three national agendas. Alleviating economic polarization, in particular, received the highest response rate across all age groups. Economic growth ranked second highest in all age groups 40 and above, while it received a lower response rate than improving the quality of life only among those in their 20s and 30s. Improving the quality of life was also considered a top three agenda, with response rates of 17.5% and 19.7% among those in their 20s and 30s, respectively, and 10.1% and 9.9% among those in their 40s and 50s, respectively, excluding those aged 60 and over. Analysis by household income also shows that alleviating economic polarization was commonly cited as the top priority across all income levels. There were also many calls to address economic growth and improving the quality of life as top national agendas across all income brackets.

● There were no differences in analysis based on political tendencies either. Whether respondents identified as progressive or conservative, alleviating economic polarization was the most frequently cited issue. There were no differences in the proportion of respondents who chose economic growth and improving the quality of life. No particular points of interest were found in the analysis based on party affiliation either. The priority of top national agendas did not change whether respondents supported the Grand National Party or the Democratic Party. The difference in response rates was within 2 percentage points. The only difference observed in the results based on party affiliation was that respondents who supported minor parties, i.e., parties other than the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party, cited alleviating economic polarization at a rate of 42.9%, higher than the overall average of 32.8%, and improving the quality of life (12.6%) was slightly higher than economic growth (9.7%).

● Furthermore, the analysis based on approval of the president's performance showed no difference from the analyses using other variables. Whether respondents evaluated President Lee Myung-bak's performance positively or negatively, they consistently cited alleviating economic polarization, economic growth, and improving the quality of life as top national agendas, in that order. Of course, there were some differences in response rates. For positive evaluators, the response rate for alleviating polarization was 29.5%, while for negative evaluators it was 36.2%. For economic growth, the rates were 18.0% and 13.5%, respectively. Consequently, respondents who positively evaluated President Lee Myung-bak's performance tended to place relatively more emphasis on economic growth compared to those who evaluated his performance negatively, while negative evaluators relatively increased the emphasis on alleviating economic polarization and improving the quality of life compared to positive evaluators.

[Table 2] Top National Agendas by Socioeconomic and Political Tendency Variables (%)

Note: Cases corresponding to 'Don't know/No response' and 'Other' have been excluded.

[Figure 1] Top National Agendas by Approval of Government Performance (%)

Worsening Perceived Economy: Reversal in Improvement Trend for National Economic Perception. Household Economic Assessment Also Worsens.

● There is further evidence to suggest that the increased emphasis on economic polarization alleviation and other economic agendas is due to the worsening perceived economy among the public. In EAI Public Opinion Briefing No. 94 (February 21, 2011), based on the February 2011 survey results, it was analyzed that the national agenda for the fourth year of the Lee Myung-bak administration would focus on the economy. The survey results conducted last April support this analysis.

● Regarding the perception of the national economy, the proportion of respondents who felt it had improved decreased from 22.5% in January 2011 to 18.8% in the February survey and 15.1% in the April survey, showing a clear downward trend. During the same period, the proportion of respondents who felt the national economy had worsened decreased slightly from 39.0% in January to 36.1% in February, but rose to 42.8% in the April survey. Regarding the perception of household economic conditions, the proportion of respondents who felt it had improved remained stagnant at 12.0% in January, 11.0% in February, and 9.0% in April, while the proportion who felt it had worsened increased from 27.1% in January and 31.0% in February to 37.1% in the April survey, indicating an upward trend in negative perceptions.

[Figure 2] Changes in Perceived National and Household Economic Conditions: April 2007 - February 2011 (%)

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Note: [Figure 3] presents a time-series analysis of the perceived changes in national and personal economic conditions as surveyed by EAI and Korea Research. It compares the proportion of responses indicating improvement versus worsening.

Issue Ownership: Growth, Political Reform, and Diplomacy Belong to the Grand National Party; Improving Inter-Korean Relations Belongs to the Democratic Party

- Livelihood-related Issues (Alleviating Polarization / Improving Quality of Life / Educational Reform) are Unclaimed Territory

● The Democratic Party received positive evaluations for its ability to handle educational reform and improving inter-Korean relations better than the Grand National Party. However, it is not perceived as an alternative party to the Grand National Party on most issues (economic growth, political reform, international competitiveness, strengthening national security). Regarding livelihood issues that the public considers important, such as alleviating polarization, improving the quality of life, and educational reform, there is no clear consensus on which party, the ruling or opposition, would handle them better. In terms of issue ownership, this can be considered unclaimed territory. It is noteworthy that during the previous participatory government, political reform was an issue where the ruling Uri Party held an advantage, and alleviating polarization was an issue where the opposition Grand National Party held an advantage. However, under the current government, the Democratic Party has lost its advantage in political reform, and the Grand National Party has lost its advantage in the polarization issue.

● For the issue of alleviating polarization, 28.5% of respondents chose the Grand National Party as the party that would best resolve the issue. While the Democratic Party was chosen by 23.2%, which is lower than the Grand National Party, if we include the responses for minor parties like the Progressive Justice Party and the Participation Party (8.0%), the combined proportion is actually higher than that for the Grand National Party. For improving the quality of life and educational issues, responses indicating the Grand National Party would handle them better were 24.5% and 24.2%, respectively, while responses indicating the Democratic Party would handle them better were 24.5% and 25.8%, respectively, resulting in a tie. This foreshadows intense issue-based campaigning in the upcoming general and presidential elections.

[Table 3] Issue Ownership: Party Best Suited to Resolve Each National Agenda (%)

Source: EAI · YTN · JoongAng Ilbo · Korea Research July 2011 Public Opinion Barometer Survey

【Regarding the Next Presidential and General Elections】

55.8% Agree with "Judgment of the Current Government / Change of Power Theory"; 53.9% Agree with "Unification of the Broad Opposition Camp"

Considering Political Parties, Grand National Party Leads Next General Election at 34.3%, Democratic Party at 27.0%, Undecided at 23.8%; Many Undecided Favor Change of Power

● Recently, with the emergence of new figures such as Chairman Hong Joon-pyo at the Grand National Party's national convention, preparations for the next general and presidential elections, as well as current policy tasks, have begun to intensify. Following the by-elections on April 28th and the Grand National Party's national convention on July 4th, efforts are being made to gain an advantage in the next general and presidential elections through comprehensive party reform.

● However, this survey indicates that the sentiment for judging the current government and achieving a change of power remains strong among the public. In the April survey, support for the statement "We must judge the current government in the next presidential election and achieve a change of power" was 61.9%, and although it has slightly decreased to 55.8% in this survey, it still exceeds half of the respondents. Furthermore, public support for the opposition's unification efforts has also decreased from 57.2% in the April survey to 53.9% in the July survey, but still, a majority of 53.9% support the theory of broad opposition camp unification.

[Figure 3] Consensus on Government Judgment Theory and Broad Opposition Camp Unification Theory (%)

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● However, when asked which party respondents would vote for in the next general election, 34.3% indicated they would vote for a Grand National Party candidate, the highest proportion. The Democratic Party received 27.0%, the Democratic Labor Party 2.9%, and the Participation Party 1.6%. The remaining 8.2% included responses indicating they would vote for other parties, independent candidates, or abstain. The proportion of undecided respondents who stated they would decide later was 23.8%.

● However, when the support for opposition parties is combined, it is comparable to the Grand National Party's support. Considering that support for the government judgment theory and opposition unification theory exceeds half, this does not necessarily indicate a pessimistic outlook for the opposition. Rather, while no single opposition party is firmly recognized as a viable alternative to the current ruling party, the high demand for government judgment among the undecided voters suggests that their voting choices may lean towards the opposition. This indicates that the general election, in particular, could be a winnable contest for the opposition.

[Figure 4] Candidates for Next General Election by Party Consideration (%)

[Figure 5] Consensus on the Necessity of Change of Power in the Next Presidential Election Among Undecided Voters (%)

Next Presidential Election Approval Ratings: Park Geun-hye 34.6%, Sohn Hak-kyu 8.2%, Kim Moon-soo 5.7%, Moon Jae-in 5.6%, Oh Se-hoon 5.0% in Order

● The July survey results for potential presidential candidates show former Grand National Party leader Park Geun-hye maintaining a dominant lead at 34.6%. Democratic Party leader Sohn Hak-kyu secured second place at 8.2%. After the April by-elections, Sohn entered the double-digit support range at 12.0%, but in the May survey, due to his lack of a clear stance during the process of handling the Korea-EU FTA and the half-price tuition controversy, his support dropped back to a single digit at 8.0%, and in this survey, he remained at a similar level.

● Governor Kim Moon-soo, who recently garnered attention for his critical stance on free school meals, ranked third with 5.7%. Director Moon Jae-in, emerging as an alternative amid Sohn's stagnation, ranked fourth with 5.6%. Mayor Oh Se-hoon followed with 5.0%, and Participation Party leader Yoo Si-min ranked sixth with 4.6%.

[Table 4] Changes in Support for Next Presidential Candidates (%)

* Bold numbers indicate the highest support rate in the last 6 months.

** Governor Kim Doo-kwan has been included in the survey since January 2011, and Director Moon Jae-in has been added since May 2011.

*** The January survey was conducted by Korea Research independently, not as part of the EAI·Korea Research regular survey.

Enquête par RDD téléphonique à partir de l'enquête de mars 2011

L'ascension de l'ancien directeur Moon Jae-in suscite l'attention

● Il est à noter que l'ancien directeur Moon Jae-in, inclus dans l'enquête depuis mai, a montré une tendance à la hausse constante. En particulier, dans cette enquête, l'ancien Premier ministre Han Myeong-sook (3,5 %) et le gouverneur Kim Doo-kwan (0,9 %), dont la candidature à la prochaine élection présidentielle est incertaine, ont été inclus dans les sujets d'enquête. Si ces derniers ne se présentent pas à l'élection présidentielle, il est probable que leurs partisans se rallient à l'ancien directeur Moon Jae-in, perçu comme le successeur légitime des partisans de l'ancien Premier ministre Han et du gouverneur Kim. Par conséquent, il est possible que son taux de soutien actuel augmente. Pendant ce temps, pour le maire Oh Se-hoon, l'opinion publique favorable à la proposition de gratuité sélective des repas scolaires ne se traduit pas pour l'instant par un taux de soutien en tant que candidat à la prochaine élection présidentielle. Il sera nécessaire de suivre l'évolution du taux de soutien du maire Oh Se-hoon au cours du mouvement de débat sur la gratuité des repas scolaires.

Adéquation en tant que candidat à la prochaine élection présidentielle du Grand Parti National : Park Geun-hye 51,0 %, Oh Se-hoon 11,7 %, Kim Moon-soo 10,0 %, Chung Mong-joon 6,3 %

Candidat unifié de l'opposition : Sohn Hak-kyu 30,2 %, Yoo Si-min 10,9 %, Moon Jae-in 7,6 %, Han Myeong-sook 7,1 %, Chung Dong-young 6,4 %

● Dans l'évaluation de l'adéquation des candidats présidentiels du camp au pouvoir, sans grand changement, l'ancienne représentante Park Geun-hye est arrivée en tête avec 51,0 %, suivie du maire de Séoul Oh Se-hoon avec 11,7 %, du gouverneur de la province du Gyeonggi Kim Moon-soo avec 10,0 % et de l'ancien représentant Chung Mong-joon avec 6,3 %. Cela confirme que la domination de l'ancienne représentante Park se consolide.

● Dans l'enquête sur l'adéquation des candidats unifiés de l'opposition, le représentant du Parti Démocrate Sohn Hak-kyu est toujours en tête avec 30,2 %. Il est suivi du représentant Yoo Si-min avec 10,9 %, de l'ancien directeur Moon Jae-in avec 7,6 %, de l'ancienne Première ministre Han Myeong-sook avec 7,1 % et du conseiller principal Chung Dong-young avec 6,4 %. L'ancien directeur Moon Jae-in, qui n'a pas encore entamé de démarche politique concrète, a montré un taux de réponse relativement faible en tant que candidat unifié de l'opposition, comparativement aux résultats de l'enquête sur le taux de soutien à la prochaine élection présidentielle.

[Tableau 5] Adéquation des candidats unifiés du Grand Parti National et de l'opposition (%)

Note : L'ancien directeur Moon Jae-in a été inclus dans l'enquête à partir de mai 2011.

【Principaux indicateurs politiques】

Taux de soutien à MB : retour dans la fourchette des 40 % « Effet Pyeongchang » : 35,9 % (avril) → 39,3 % (juin) → 43,1 % (juillet)

Taux de soutien aux partis : Grand Parti National 38,6 % contre Parti Démocrate 28,8 %

● En juillet, le taux de soutien au président Lee Myung-bak a augmenté de 3,8 points de pourcentage par rapport au mois précédent pour atteindre 43,1 %, réintégrant ainsi la fourchette des 40 %. Fondamentalement, les inquiétudes concernant la détérioration de l'économie ressentie et l'aggravation des inégalités s'accroissent, et bien que des facteurs négatifs se soient accumulés en raison de l'affaire de la Busan Savings Bank et des conflits sur les pouvoirs d'enquête entre procureurs et police, il semble que ce soit avant tout le résultat de la formation d'une opinion publique favorable à l'ensemble de la gestion des affaires publiques du président, renforcée par les efforts déployés lors de la candidature de Pyeongchang aux Jeux Olympiques d'hiver et lors de ses tournées à l'étranger. Cependant, comme mentionné précédemment, étant donné que les priorités de la gouvernance sont concentrées sur les questions économiques, il est peu probable que ce rebond du taux de soutien se poursuive à long terme si les résultats en matière d'économie ressentie et de problèmes de subsistance ne sont pas soutenus.

● En ce qui concerne le taux de soutien aux partis, le Grand Parti National a enregistré 38,6 % et le Parti Démocrate 28,8 %. Bien que l'écart de soutien se soit légèrement réduit par rapport à juin, le Parti Démocrate n'a pas réussi à susciter une augmentation supplémentaire significative de son taux de soutien après le rebond observé suite à la victoire de l'opposition lors des élections partielles du 28 avril.

Gratuité des frais de scolarité / Après l'affaire de la Busan Savings Bank, l'écart de soutien entre le Grand Parti National et le Parti Démocrate s'est réduit parmi les centristes.

● Cependant, l'écart de soutien entre le Grand Parti National et le Parti Démocrate parmi les centristes, qui avait atteint son maximum lors de l'enquête menée immédiatement après les élections partielles d'avril avant de continuer à baisser, s'est réduit. En juin, suite aux manifestations pour la gratuité des frais de scolarité et à l'enquête sur l'affaire de la Busan Savings Bank, qui ont constitué des facteurs négatifs pour le gouvernement et le parti au pouvoir, le taux de soutien au Parti Démocrate parmi les centristes a augmenté pour atteindre 30,8 %, contre 27,8 % lors de l'enquête de juin. En revanche, le Grand Parti National s'est établi à 33,7 %, soit une légère baisse par rapport aux 35,5 % enregistrés lors de l'enquête de juin.

[Graphique 6] Évolution du taux de soutien présidentiel et des taux de soutien du Grand Parti National/Parti Démocrate (%)

[Graphique 7] Évolution du taux de soutien du Grand Parti National et du Parti Démocrate parmi les centristes (%)