[Public Opinion Briefing No. 101] Top National Agendas Center on Economy and Quality of Life

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 101] Joint Project of EAI, YTN, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research: July Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

Pyeongchang Effect: MB's Approval Rating Returns to 40% Range, Moon Jae-in Emerges

1. Top National Priorities: Clear Emphasis on Economy (Addressing Polarization, Economic Growth, Improving Quality of Life)

2. Regarding Next Presidential and General Elections: Park Geun-hye Leads, Sohn Hak-kyu Stagnates, Moon Jae-in Emerges

3. Key Political Indicators: Pyeongchang Effect Boosts MB's Approval Rating to 40% Range, Narrowing Grand National-Democratic Party Gap Among Moderates

【Top National Priorities】The Issue is the Economy - Worsening Perceived Economy

Focus on "Resolving Polarization, Economic Growth, Improving Quality of Life," with Polarization Concerns Rising from 20.7% in February to 32.8%

Compared to the February Survey, "Strengthening National Security" and "Improving Inter-Korean Relations" Have Plummeted in Priority: From 4th and 6th to 10th and 7th Place, Respectively

● Examining the top national agendas identified by the public, with one and a half years remaining in President Lee Myung-bak's term, reveals that 32.8% prioritized alleviating polarization, 15.6% economic growth, and 12.8% improving quality of life. Comprehensively considering macro and personal levels, economic agendas accounted for a significant 61.4% of responses. Notably, the response prioritizing the alleviation of economic polarization surged from 23.2% in the December 2010 survey and 20.7% in the February 2012 survey to 32.8% in this survey.

● In contrast, foreign policy and national security agendas, such as improving inter-Korean relations, strengthening national security, and enhancing international competitiveness, are perceived by the public as lower national priorities. In the December survey last year, influenced by the Yeonpyeong shelling incident, responses prioritizing inter-Korean relations (14.8%) and strengthening national security (11.1%) maintained relatively high rankings at 2nd and 5th place, respectively. Even in the February survey, strengthening national security (10.0%) and improving inter-Korean relations (8.0%) were considered relatively important national agendas, ranking 4th and 6th, respectively, despite a slight decrease in response rates. However, in the July survey, improving inter-Korean relations ranked 7th with 4.5%, and strengthening national security received the lowest response rate among the options at 3.5%. National integration (8.1%) ranked 4th, political reform 5th, and educational reform 6th, filling the void left by security-related agendas.

[Table 1] Top National Agendas Since December 2010 (%)

Source: EAI · Korea Research December 2010, EAI · YTN · JoongAng Ilbo · Korea Research February 2011 Public Opinion Barometer Survey

No Differences in Top National Agendas Based on Socioeconomic Variables and Political Orientation

● The public consensus that the perceived economy has worsened underlies the prioritization of economic agendas at both macro and personal levels. Prices are rising sharply, and the job market shows no signs of significant improvement. International economic conditions also raise concerns. While the US avoided default, a credit rating downgrade was unavoidable. The possibility of an economic crisis originating in Europe continues to be mentioned.

● As if to prove this point, the public prioritizing economic agendas is not confined to a specific demographic. Analysis by key socioeconomic variables such as age and household income, as well as ideological orientation and party affiliation, key political variables, confirms the public's high regard for economic issues.

● Among socioeconomic variables, an examination by age group reveals that alleviating economic polarization, economic growth, and improving quality of life were generally considered the top three national agendas. Alleviating economic polarization received the highest response rate across all age groups. Economic growth ranked second highest for all age groups 40 and above, while it ranked lower than improving quality of life only for those in their 20s and 30s. Improving quality of life was also considered a top three agenda, with response rates of 17.5% and 19.7% for those in their 20s and 30s, respectively, and 10.1% and 9.9% for those in their 40s and 50s, respectively, excluding those aged 60 and above. Analysis by household income also shows that alleviating economic polarization was commonly cited as the top priority across all income brackets. There were also strong calls to address economic growth and improving quality of life as top national agendas across all income levels.

● There were no significant differences in analysis based on political orientation. Whether respondents identified as progressive or conservative, alleviating economic polarization was the most frequently cited priority. There were no notable differences in the proportions of responses for economic growth and improving quality of life. Similarly, no specific trends were observed in differences based on party affiliation. Whether supporters of the Grand National Party or the Democratic Party, the ranking of top national agendas did not change. The difference in response rates was within 2%. The only discernible difference in results based on party affiliation was that respondents supporting minor parties, other than the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party, showed a higher response rate for alleviating economic polarization at 42.9% compared to the overall average of 32.8%, and improving quality of life (12.6%) was slightly higher than economic growth (9.7%).

● Furthermore, the analysis based on approval of the president's performance showed no differences compared to analyses using other variables. Both respondents who positively evaluated President Lee Myung-bak's performance and those who negatively evaluated it cited alleviating economic polarization, economic growth, and improving quality of life as top national agendas, in that order. Of course, there are some differences in response rates. For positive evaluators, the response rate for alleviating polarization was 29.5%, while for negative evaluators, it was 36.2%. For economic growth, the rates were 18.0% and 13.5%, respectively. Consequently, respondents who positively evaluated President Lee Myung-bak's performance placed relatively more emphasis on economic growth compared to those who negatively evaluated it, while negative evaluators placed relatively more emphasis on alleviating economic polarization and improving quality of life compared to positive evaluators.

[Table 2] Top National Agendas by Socioeconomic and Political Orientation Variables (%)

Note: Cases categorized as "Don't know/No response" and "Other" have been excluded.

[Figure 1] Top National Agendas by Approval/Disapproval of Government Performance (%)

Deterioration of Perceived Economy: Reversal of Improvement Trend in National Economic Perception. Family Economic Assessment Also Worsened

● Further evidence supporting the notion that the increased emphasis on economic polarization alleviation and related agendas is due to the public's worsening perceived economy can be found. In EAI Public Opinion Briefing No. 94 (February 21, 2011), based on the February 2011 survey results, it was analyzed that the national tasks for the fourth year of the Lee Myung-bak administration would focus on the economy. The survey results from April of this year support this analysis.

● Regarding the perception of the national economy, the proportion of respondents who felt it had improved decreased from 22.5% in January 2011 to 18.8% in the February survey and 15.1% in the April survey, showing a clear downward trend. During the same period, the proportion of respondents who felt the national economy had worsened, after showing some moderation from 39.0% in January to 36.1% in February, rose to 42.8% in the April survey. In terms of household economic conditions, the proportion of respondents who felt it had improved remained stagnant at 12.0% in January, 11.0% in February, and 9.0% in April. Conversely, the proportion who felt it had worsened increased from 27.1% in January and 31.0% in February to 37.1% in the April survey, indicating a worsening trend.

[Figure 2] Changes in Perceived National and Household Economic Conditions: April 2007 - February 2011 (%)

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Note: [Figure 3] presents a time-series analysis of public perception of national and personal economic conditions, as surveyed by EAI and Korea Research. It compares the proportion of responses indicating improvement versus worsening.

Issue Ownership: Growth, Political Reform, and Diplomacy Belong to the Grand National Party; Improving Inter-Korean Relations Belongs to the Democratic Party

- Livelihood-related Issues (Alleviating Polarization / Improving Quality of Life / Educational Reform) are Unclaimed Territory

● The Democratic Party received positive evaluations for its potential to handle educational reform and improving inter-Korean relations better than the Grand National Party. However, it is not perceived as an alternative party for most issues (economic growth, political reform, international competitiveness, strengthening national security). For issues prioritized by the public, such as alleviating polarization, improving quality of life, and educational reform, public opinion is divided on which party, the ruling or opposition, can handle them better. In terms of issue ownership, this can be considered unclaimed territory. It is noteworthy that during the previous participatory government, political reform was an issue where the then-ruling Uri Party held an advantage, and alleviating polarization was an issue where the opposition Grand National Party held an advantage. However, under the current government, the Democratic Party has lost its advantage in political reform, and the Grand National Party has lost its advantage in polarization issues.

● For the issue of alleviating polarization, 28.5% of respondents cited the Grand National Party as the party best equipped to resolve it. While the Democratic Party was cited by 23.2%, trailing the Grand National Party, if the response rates for the Progressive Justice Party and the Participation Party (8.0% combined) are included, the total response rate for opposition parties exceeds that of the Grand National Party. For improving quality of life and educational issues, responses indicating the Grand National Party would handle them better were 24.5% and 24.2%, respectively, while responses indicating the Democratic Party would handle them better were 24.5% and 25.8%, respectively, resulting in a close contest. This foreshadows intense issue-based campaigning in the upcoming general and presidential elections.

[Table 3] Issue Ownership: Party Best Suited to Resolve Each National Agenda (%)

Source: EAI · YTN · JoongAng Ilbo · Korea Research July 2011 Public Opinion Barometer Survey

【Regarding the Next Presidential and General Elections】

55.8% Agree with "Judgment of the Current Government / Change of Power," 53.9% Agree with "Unification of the Broad Opposition"

Considering Party Affiliation for the Next General Election: Grand National Party 34.3%, Democratic Party 27.0%, Undecided 23.8%; Many Undecided Favor Change of Power

● Recently, with the emergence of new leaders such as Chairman Hong Joon-pyo in the Grand National Party's national convention, preparations for the next general and presidential elections, as well as current policy tasks, are gradually becoming more concrete. Following the by-elections on April 28 and the Grand National Party's national convention on July 4, efforts are being made to achieve an advantage in the next general and presidential elections through comprehensive party reform.

● However, this survey indicates that the sentiment for judging the current government and achieving a change of power remains prevalent among the public. In the April survey, support for the assertion "We must judge the current government in the next presidential election and achieve a change of power" was 61.9%; although it slightly decreased to 55.8% in this survey, it still exceeds half. Furthermore, public support for the opposition's unification efforts has also decreased from 57.2% in the April survey to 53.9% in the July survey, but it still remains above half at 53.9% for the broad opposition unification theory.

[Figure 3] Level of Agreement with Government Judgment Theory and Broad Opposition Unification Theory (%)

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● However, when asked which party respondents would vote for in the next general election, considering only party affiliation, 34.3% indicated they would vote for a Grand National Party candidate, the highest proportion. The Democratic Party received 27.0%, the Democratic Labor Party 2.9%, and the Participation Party 1.6%. The remaining 8.2% included responses indicating they would choose other parties, independents, or abstain. Those who had not yet decided and would decide closer to the time accounted for 23.8%.

● Nevertheless, when the support rates for opposition parties are combined, they are comparable to the Grand National Party's support rate. Moreover, considering that support for government judgment and opposition unification theories exceeds half, the situation is not necessarily pessimistic for the opposition. Rather, while no single opposition party is firmly recognized as a viable alternative to the current ruling party, the high level of support for government judgment among the undecided voters suggests that their voting choices may lean towards the opposition. This indicates that the general election, in particular, can be anticipated as a winnable contest for the opposition.

[Figure 4] Party Candidate to Vote for in Next General Election (Considering Party Affiliation Only) (%)

[Figure 5] Level of Agreement with the Necessity of Change of Power in the Next Presidential Election Among Undecided Voters (%)

Next Presidential Election Approval Ratings: Park Geun-hye 34.6%, Sohn Hak-kyu 8.2%, Kim Moon-soo 5.7%, Moon Jae-in 5.6%, Oh Se-hoon 5.0%

● The July survey results for potential presidential candidates show former Grand National Party representative Park Geun-hye maintaining a dominant lead at 34.6%. Democratic Party leader Sohn Hak-kyu ranked second at 8.2%. After the April by-elections, Sohn entered the double-digit support range at 12.0%, but his support dropped to 8.0% in the May survey due to his lack of a clear stance on issues such as the Korea-EU FTA and the half-price tuition debate. He remained at this level in the current survey.

● Governor Kim Moon-soo, who recently garnered attention for his critical stance on free school meals, ranked third at 5.7%. Director Moon Jae-in, emerging as an alternative amidst Sohn's stagnation, ranked fourth at 5.6%. Mayor Oh Se-hoon followed at 5.0%, and Participation Party leader Yoo Si-min ranked sixth at 4.6%.

[Table 4] Changes in Support for Next Presidential Candidates (%)

* Bold numbers indicate the highest support rate in the last 6 months.

** Governor Kim Doo-kwan has been included in the survey since January 2011, and Director Moon Jae-in since May 2011.

*** The January survey was conducted by Korea Research independently, not as part of the EAI·Korea Research regular survey.

Survey using wired RDD method from March 2011 onwards

The rise of Director Moon Jae-in is noteworthy

● Director Moon Jae-in, who was included in the survey from May, has shown a steady upward trend, which is noteworthy. In particular, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook (3.5%) and Governor Kim Doo-kwan (0.9%), who are pro-Roh and whose presidential candidacies are uncertain, were included in this survey. If they do not run for president, their supporters are likely to shift to Director Moon Jae-in, who is perceived as the legitimate successor to the pro-Roh faction. Therefore, he has the potential to increase his current approval rating. Meanwhile, Mayor Oh Se-hoon's approval rating is not currently translating into support for the next presidential election, despite favorable public opinion regarding the selective free lunch program. It will be necessary to pay attention to the changes in Mayor Oh Se-hoon's approval rating during the subsequent free lunch debate.

Grand National Party next presidential candidate suitability: Park Geun-hye 51.0%, Oh Se-hoon 11.7%, Kim Moon-soo 10.0%, Chung Mong-joon 6.3%

Opposition unified candidate: Sohn Hak-kyu 30.2%, Yoo Si-min 10.9%, Moon Jae-in 7.6%, Han Myeong-sook 7.1%, Chung Dong-young 6.4%

● In the evaluation of suitability for the ruling party's presidential candidates, there were no significant changes, with former Representative Park Geun-hye at 51.0%, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 11.7%, Gyeonggi Governor Kim Moon-soo at 10.0%, and former Representative Chung Mong-joon at 6.3%. This confirms that former Representative Park's dominance is solidifying.

● In the survey for the opposition's unified candidate, Democratic Party leader Sohn Hak-kyu remained ahead with 30.2%, followed by Representative Yoo Si-min at 10.9%, Director Moon Jae-in at 7.6%, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook at 7.1%, and Supreme Council member Chung Dong-young at 6.4%. Director Moon Jae-in has not yet officially entered the political arena, resulting in a relatively lower response rate compared to his next presidential election support rating in the survey for the opposition's unified candidate.

[Table 5] Grand National Party, Opposition Unified Candidate Suitability (%)

Note: Director Moon Jae-in was included in the survey from May 2011.

【Key Political Indicators】

MB Approval Rating Returns to 40% Range: "Pyeongchang Effect" : 35.9% (April)
→ 39.3% (June) → 43.1% (July)

Party Approval Ratings: Grand National Party 38.6% vs. Democratic Party 28.8%

● In the July survey, President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating rose to 43.1%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous month, re-entering the 40% range. Although concerns about the worsening perceived economy and deepening polarization have fundamentally grown, and negative factors have accumulated due to incidents such as the Busan Savings Bank scandal and conflicts over prosecutorial investigation authority, this is primarily seen as a result of favorable public opinion forming around the President's overall state administration, bolstered by efforts such as strengthening the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics bid process and overseas diplomatic activities. However, as noted earlier, given that national priorities are concentrated on economic agendas, it is anticipated that this rebound in approval ratings will be difficult to sustain in the long term if performance in perceived economic and livelihood issues does not improve.

● Regarding party approval ratings, the Grand National Party recorded 38.6% and the Democratic Party 28.8%. Although the approval gap has narrowed slightly compared to June, the Democratic Party has failed to achieve any significant additional increase in support following its rise in approval ratings immediately after the April 28 by-election, which was won by the opposition.

Half-Price Tuition / Following the Busan Savings Bank Incident, the Approval Gap Between the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party Narrows Among Centrist Voters

● However, the approval gap between the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party among centrist voters, which had been falling since peaking immediately after the April by-election survey, has narrowed. Due to a series of negative developments for the ruling party, including the 'half-price tuition' candlelight protests in June and the investigation into the Busan Savings Bank incident, the Democratic Party's approval rating among centrist voters rose to 30.8%, an increase from 27.8% in the June survey. In contrast, the Grand National Party's rating was 33.7%, a slight decrease compared to 35.5% in the June survey.

[Figure 6] Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings and Grand National Party/Democratic Party Approval Ratings (%)

[Figure 7] Changes in Grand National Party-Democratic Party Approval Ratings Among Centrist Voters (%)