[Public Opinion Brief No. 100] The Grand National Party's National Convention on July 4 and Key Issues in the Current Political Climate

[Public Opinion Brief No. 100] Joint Project by EAI, YTN, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research June Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. Grand National Party National Convention on July 4: Low Public Interest, "Not Interested 66.8%"

2. Key Issues in the Current Political Climate: Half-Price Tuition / Public Official Corruption / Seoul City Free Meal Plan

3. Key Political Indicators: Opposition Party's Upward Trend Stalled After April 27 By-election

【Grand National Party National Convention on July 4】Low Public Interest, "Not Interested 66.8%"

- Support for Next Party Leader: 2 Frontrunners (Na Kyung-won/Hong Joon-pyo) - 2 Mid-tier (Won Hee-ryong/Nam Kyung-pil) - 3 Underdogs (Yoo Seong-min/Park Jin/Kwon Young-se)

(1) Grand National Party National Convention on July 4

General Public, "Interested 31.0%", "Not Interested 66.8%"

Grand National Party Supporters, "Interested 52.3%", "Not Interested 45.6%"

● The ruling party's national convention is scheduled for July 4 to elect a new party leader who will guide the party through the 2012 general and presidential elections, following the shock of the April 27 by-election defeat. On June 23, the deadline for candidate registration, candidates Won Hee-ryong, Kwon Young-se, Hong Joon-pyo, Nam Kyung-pil, Park Jin, Yoo Seong-min, and Na Kyung-won (in order of registration number) submitted their applications and began campaigning in six regional events, starting with the vision presentation in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region on June 24.

● While it should be considered that the campaign has just begun, public interest in the national convention remains lukewarm. When asked, "How interested are you in the Grand National Party's national convention on July 4?", only 31.0% of all respondents answered "Interested," while 66.8% responded "Not Interested."

Women, 20s-30s, Chungcheong Region, and Unaffiliated Voters are Areas of Low Interest

● Among women, the "Interested" response was 27.7%, lower than the 34.3% among men. By age group, interest was significantly lower among those in their 20s (21.2%) and 30s (17.0%) compared to those in their 50s (42.1%) and 60s and above (47.4%). For those in their 40s, considered a balance point in public opinion, the interest level was 29.3%, slightly below the average.

[Figure 1] Interest in the Grand National Party National Convention on July 4 (%)

● Regionally, Daegu-Gyeongbuk showed the highest interest at 38.1%. Gwangju/Jeolla (34.2%) and Busan/Gyeongnam (33.5%) also exceeded 30%. Seoul (29.4%) and Incheon/Gyeonggi (29.5%) were below the average, while Daejeon/Chungcheong showed the lowest interest at 23.9%.

● In terms of party support, only 52.3% of Grand National Party supporters expressed interest in the national convention. Among Democratic Party supporters, interest was 20.9%, and among minor party supporters, it was 22.2%. The Grand National Party's national convention failed to capture the attention of unaffiliated voters, with only 13.2% expressing interest. It will be important to observe how much interest can be generated not only among Grand National Party supporters but also in the areas of low interest during the candidate nomination process.

[Figure 2] Areas of Low Interest for the Grand National Party National Convention on July 4: "Interested" (%)

(2) Support for Next Party Leader Election

General Public (Sum of first and second responses), 2 Frontrunners - 2 Mid-tier - 3 Underdogs, Half of Respondents Have No Preferred Candidate

- Na Kyung-won 25.9%, Hong Joon-pyo 22.3% - Won Hee-ryong 15.4%, Nam Kyung-pil 13.0% - Yoo Seong-min 8.1%, Park Jin 5.6%, Kwon Young-se 2.9%

● The election for the next leader of the Grand National Party will be decided by combining the results of a nationwide vote by registered party members at 251 polling stations on July 3, a vote by convention delegates at the national convention on July 4, and a public opinion poll conducted on July 2-3. The public opinion poll involves selecting two out of seven candidates, and this survey was also conducted by asking respondents to select two candidates regardless of ranking.

● The survey results, combining both responses, show Na Kyung-won (25.9%) and Hong Joon-pyo (22.3%) in a close race within the margin of error, followed by Won Hee-ryong (15.4%) and Nam Kyung-pil (13.0%) in the mid-tier, and Yoo Seong-min (8.1%), Park Jin (5.6%), and Kwon Young-se (2.9%) trailing. Nearly half of all respondents were undecided, responding "Don't know" or refusing to answer, accounting for 50.9% in the first response and 55.8% in the second response.

[Figure 3] Grand National Party Leader Support: Sum of First and Second Responses (%)

Note: Figures are the sum of the first response (100%) and the second response (100%). The sum of "Don't know/No response" is 106.7% and excluded from the figure.

Na Kyung-won and Hong Joon-pyo Lead Across All Demographics

- Na Kyung-won Strong Among Women, Young Voters, High Education/Income Groups, and in Honam/PK Regions

- Among Grand National Party Supporters, Na Kyung-won 37.3%, Hong Joon-pyo 33.4% in a Close Contest

● By demographic group, both Na Kyung-won and Hong Joon-pyo are leading consistently across all segments. Na Kyung-won only trailed Hong Joon-pyo within the margin of error among men, those in their 50s-60s, those with a monthly income below 3 million KRW, in the Chungcheong region, and among production workers. However, she led Hong Joon-pyo in all other demographic groups. Notably, there were significant gaps favoring Na Kyung-won among women (Na 25.6%, Hong 17.2%), those in their 30s-40s (30s - Na 29.8%, Hong 17.7%; 40s - Na 26.2%, Hong 20.6%), those with a college degree or higher (Na 27.9%, Hong 14.8%), in the Honam region (Na 22.6%, Hong 10.8%), and in the Busan/Gyeongnam region (Na 30.0%, Hong 23.0%), and among ideological conservatives (Na 30.8%, Hong 24.5%). However, overall, the race is neck-and-neck, making it difficult to predict the outcome ([See Table 1]).

● Among Grand National Party supporters, Na Kyung-won and Hong Joon-pyo significantly lead other candidates. Na Kyung-won garnered 37.3% support, and Hong Joon-pyo received 33.4%, both well above the average support rate. Won Hee-ryong followed with 15.5%, Yoo Seong-min with 11.1%, Nam Kyung-pil with 10.9%, Park Jin with 8.1%, and Kwon Young-se with 3.0%.

[Table 1] Support by Demographic Group: Sum of First and Second Responses (%)

【Current Political Issues】Half-Price Tuition / Public Official Corruption / Seoul City Free Meal Plan

- Half-Price Tuition: Public Opinion Divided 50:50, Grand National Party Proposal 45.5% vs. Democratic Party Proposal 44.0%

- Public Official Integrity: 80% Believe Officials Are Not Honest, "High-Ranking Officials" Are the Problem 70.9%, "Will Not Improve" 64.3%

- Free Meal Referendum Support 60.0%, Full Free Meal Plan 39.1% vs. Income-Bottom 50% Plan 53.4%

(1) Major Political and Social Issues in June

Half-Price Tuition Issue 41.4%, Busan Savings Bank 6.1%, Free Meal Plan 2.1%

● When asked open-endedly, "What was the most significant political and social issue you followed in June?", the "half-price tuition controversy" was cited by 41.4% of respondents. The "Busan Savings Bank investigation" was mentioned by 6.1%, the free meal plan by 2.1%, and "candlelight protests, Hanjin Heavy Industries strike" and "North Korea's secret inter-Korean talks" each by approximately 1.2%. "Other issues," "don't know/no response" accounted for 34.1%, indicating that public attention is currently focused on the half-price tuition controversy.

[Table 2] Most Followed Political and Social Issues in June: Open-ended (%)

(2) The Core of the Current Political Climate: The Half-Price Tuition Issue, Public Opinion Divided "Half and Half"

Support for Government Funding for Tuition Reduction 73.9%, Opinions Divided on Uniform vs. Differentiated Reduction Rates

Evaluation of Reduction Methods and Feasibility is Also Split: Grand National Party Proposal 45.5% vs. Democratic Party Proposal 44.0%

Support for Government Funding for Tuition Reduction 73.9%, Uniform Reduction Rate 47.1% vs. Differentiated Rate 50.5%

● The fundamental issue surrounding tuition reduction is whether it is appropriate to use national finances for tuition reduction. The survey results show that 73.9% of respondents believe that tuition should be reduced even if it requires national financial investment. Conversely, 22.6% were opposed.

● Support rates were particularly high among the 20s age group and low-income brackets, who are directly affected. Among those in their 20s, support for national financial investment reached a high of 87.9%. Support was also high among those in their 30s (69.5%), 40s (74.5%), 50s (68.4%), and 60s and above (69.5%), although lower than in their 20s, it remained at a high absolute level. By income level, support for national financial investment was high among households with a monthly income below 2 million KRW (79.2%) and those in the lower-middle income bracket of 2.01-3 million KRW (75.6%). For the middle-income bracket of 3.01-5 million KRW, support was 69.8%, and for the upper-income bracket of over 5.01 million KRW, it was 64.6%, indicating a slightly weaker level of support for national financial investment ([Figure 4]).

● When asked about the preferred method for applying tuition reduction rates, 47.1% favored the stance that "a uniform reduction amount should be set and applied equally to all students," while 50.5% believed that "it should be applied differently based on student grades or income level," resulting in a close split ([Figure 5]). Those in their 30s and 40s preferred the uniform application (30s: 54.6%, 40s: 56.2%), while support for uniform application was relatively lower among those in their 50s and 60s (50s: 37.6%, 60s and above: 34.4%). However, even among the 20s age group, who are directly involved, the opinions were split, with 50.2% favoring uniform application and 49.8% favoring differentiated application.

[Figure 4] Public Opinion "Support" for National Financial Investment for Tuition Reduction (%)

[Figure 5] Method of Applying Tuition Reduction Rates (%)

Tuition Reduction Proposals: "Grand National Party Proposal for 15-30% Reduction Over 3 Years" 45.5% vs. "Democratic Party Proposal for Half-Price Tuition Starting 2012" 44.0%

● Regarding tuition reduction proposals, preferences are evenly split between the "Grand National Party's proposal to lower tuition by 15-30% over three years" and the "Democratic Party's proposal to implement half-price tuition starting in 2012." Support for the Grand National Party's proposal was 45.5%, while support for the Democratic Party and opposition parties' proposal was 44.0%, with 10.5% undecided or unwilling to answer.

● By generation, those in their 20s (Grand National Party proposal 37.3% vs. Democratic Party proposal 60.3%), 30s (34.8% vs. 52.2%), and 40s (39.9% vs. 50.6%) showed higher preference for the Democratic Party's proposal over the Grand National Party's. Conversely, those in their 50s (55.9% vs. 28.1%) and 60s (62.0% vs. 26.3%) showed higher preference for the Grand National Party's proposal. Regionally, the Grand National Party proposal received higher support in Seoul (48.7% vs. 39.6%) and the Yeongnam region (TK 53.5% vs. 35.6%, PK 52.5% vs. 36.7%). The Democratic Party's half-price proposal garnered stronger support in the Chungcheong region (42.7% vs. 55.4%) and the Honam region (29.6% vs. 64.4%). In the Gyeonggi region, support for both proposals was split evenly (42.0% vs. 44.9%).

● The difference in opinions was particularly pronounced based on party affiliation. Among Grand National Party supporters, 66.9% supported the Grand National Party's proposal, while only 26.5% supported the Democratic Party's half-price proposal. Conversely, among Democratic Party supporters, 28.4% agreed with the Grand National Party's proposal to lower tuition by 30% over three years, while 65.1% supported the immediate implementation of half-price tuition starting next year. Unaffiliated voters leaned more towards the Democratic Party's proposal than the Grand National Party's. Support for the Grand National Party's proposal was 32.3%, while 46.8% supported the Democratic Party's half-price proposal. However, 20.9% were undecided, a higher percentage compared to party supporters.

[Figure 6] University Tuition Reduction Proposals (%)

Feasibility of Half-Price Tuition: "Possible" 47.8% vs. "Not Possible" 46.5%

● Opinions were also divided on the feasibility of the half-price tuition proposal. When asked, "Do you believe it is possible or not possible to effectively halve current university tuition through national financial investment, university restructuring, utilization of university reserves, and expansion of scholarships?", opinions were sharply divided. "Possible" was the response from 47.8%, while "Not Possible" was from 46.5%.

● Public opinion favoring feasibility was a majority among those in their 20s (62.2%), 30s (54.6%), and 40s (51.9%). It did not reach a majority among those in their 50s (40.5%) and 60s and above (28.5%). By income level, a majority favored feasibility among those with a monthly household income of 2.01-3 million KRW (54.5%) and 3.01-5 million KRW (50.0%). It did not reach a majority among those with incomes below 2 million KRW (38.4%) and above 5 million KRW (49.3%). Notably, in terms of party support, only 36.0% of Grand National Party supporters believed it was possible, while 59.4% of Democratic Party supporters and 55.8% of minor party supporters believed it was possible. Among unaffiliated voters, 50.6% believed it was possible and 38.5% believed it was not possible, with 11.0% undecided, highlighting a significant perception gap between the ruling party's stance and that of the opposition parties and unaffiliated voters.

[Figure 6] Feasibility of Half-Price University Tuition (%)

(3) Public Official Corruption Issue: Predominantly Pessimistic Assessment

Korean Public Officials "Not Honest" 80.1%

Most Corrupt Rank: "High-Ranking Officials" 70.9%

Government's Efforts to Establish Public Integrity "Will Not Improve" 64.3%

● Amidst public corruption scandals involving public officials, such as the Busan Savings Bank incident, provision of entertainment by Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs officials, and offshore secret funds in Swiss banks, the government is attempting to tighten public integrity. However, public opinion surveys indicate a predominantly pessimistic assessment and outlook.

● Firstly, when asked, "How clean do you think Korean public officials are?" only 16.6% responded that they are clean, while a significant 80.1% held a negative view, stating they are not clean. This negative perception was high across all social strata, regardless of age, income, or region, and was not influenced by political attitudes such as support for the government or political parties.

● Regarding the question, "Which rank of public official do you consider least clean?" 70.9% of respondents answered high-ranking officials, indicating a prevailing perception that corruption among public officials originates from the top. Intermediate officials were cited by 19.0%, lower-ranking officials by 2.3%, and 7.3% were unsure or did not respond.

● Consequently, when asked, "To what extent do you believe the government's current efforts to establish public integrity will improve the cleanliness of the public sector?" only 31.2% expressed optimistic expectations for improvement, while a pessimistic outlook predicting no improvement was held by 64.3%. This demonstrates that corruption within the public sector, particularly among high-ranking officials, is perceived as a chronic problem.

● Notably, even among respondents who positively assess President Lee Myung-bak's current administration, more responded that it would not go well (50.1%) than that it would go well (45.3%). Among supporters of the Grand National Party, pessimistic views (53.9%) also outnumbered optimistic ones (40.7%). Among unaffiliated voters, a substantial 71.6% predicted that improvement would be difficult.

[Figure 7] Feasibility of Realizing Half-Price University Tuition for Public Officials in Korea (%)

(4) Prospects for Seoul's Free Lunch Referendum: High Likelihood of Selective Meal Plan Passage Based on Current Public Opinion

Regarding free school lunches, 60.0% are "in favor of holding a referendum in Seoul," 58.9% of Seoul citizens are in favor, and 69.2% will "participate in the referendum."

Universal free lunch plan 39.1%, selective meal plan for the bottom 50% of income earners 53.4%, however, the referendum frame is highly debatable.

Regarding free school lunches, 60.0% are "in favor of holding a referendum in Seoul," and 58.9% of Seoul citizens are in favor.

Among Seoul citizens (169 people), 69.2% will "participate in the referendum."

● The most noteworthy aspect of this survey is that when asked, "Are you in favor of or against holding a referendum in Seoul in August regarding free school lunches?", 60.0% responded in favor, 27.6% opposed, and 12.5% were unsure. Particularly among the 168 Seoul respondents, 58.9% were in favor and 33.6% were opposed, indicating that positive responses regarding the referendum significantly outnumbered negative ones. Although the number of Seoul respondents is not large, considering the significant gap in responses, this trend is unlikely to change even with an increased sample size.

● Article 24, Paragraph 2 of Chapter 4 of the Referendum Act, "Effect of Referendum," states that if "the total number of votes is less than one-third of the total number of eligible voters," the votes will not be counted, making voter turnout the primary variable for the referendum. In this survey, when asked the 168 Seoul respondents, "Do you intend to participate in the referendum scheduled for August?", 69.2% responded that they would participate, and 17.5% said they would not.

● Currently, groups opposing the referendum, particularly some within the Democratic Party, are advocating for a boycott of the referendum, citing issues such as the cost of approximately 18 billion won and the validity of the referendum requirements. However, assuming the results of this survey can be generalized, the high level of public support for holding the referendum and participating in it suggests a potential for public backlash.

[Figure 8] Favorability/Unfavorability of Holding a Seoul Referendum in August: National and Seoul Responses

● However, as this is a national survey, the sample size of Seoul respondents (168) is admittedly insufficient when considering the margin of error. A large-scale survey targeting Seoul citizens is necessary for precise predictions. Nevertheless, even with a relatively small sample size, the fact that response rates approach 70% suggests that public opinion on such issues, reaching a level of consensus, is relatively less influenced by sample size.

● Furthermore, considering recent elections, it is necessary to interpret the results cautiously, as questions about intention to vote often show participation rates 20-30% higher than actual turnout due to the normative obligation to vote, i.e., the "tendency to give socially desirable answers."

Universal free lunch plan 39.1%, selective meal plan for the bottom 50% of income earners 53.4%

● The signature campaign by the National Movement to Expel Welfare Populism (hereinafter referred to as the "Movement Headquarters"), which is promoting the referendum against free school lunches, is essentially a binary choice: "Oppose the currently promoted universal free lunch plan, and support the plan to gradually implement free lunches for the bottom 50% of income earners by 2014." Assuming the referendum is conducted based on this proposal, it will be framed as a choice between the current universal free lunch plan, "implementing free lunches for all elementary school students starting this year and middle school students next year, regardless of income," and the plan, "gradually implementing free lunches for students in the bottom 50% of income earners by 2014."

● In a public opinion poll using this question frame, 39.1% of respondents chose the universal free lunch plan, and 53.4% supported the plan for gradual implementation targeting the bottom 50% of income earners. Among the 168 Seoul respondents alone, 37.4% favored the universal free lunch plan and 55.0% favored the selective meal plan. If current public opinion persists, there is a high likelihood that Mayor Oh Se-hoon's position will prevail.

[Figure 9] Public Opinion (%) on the Referendum Proposal Based on the Current Movement Headquarters' Signature Campaign

However, the question frame is a variable.

The current referendum signature frame is highly debatable due to the possibility of a "third option."

● In EAI Public Opinion Briefing No. 98 (dated May 30, 2011), the author pointed out the framing effect that favors universal free lunches by contrasting a choice-based question frame between a "universal free lunch plan" and a "selective free lunch theory," where the latter garners higher support (54.7%), but a question frame asking about support for or opposition to the current free lunch plan leads to opposition against suspending free lunches, thus favoring the universal plan (http://www.eai.or.kr/main/publication_01_view.asp?intSeq=6407&board=kor_report). This survey, while different in content, uses a choice-based question frame, similar to the previous survey, showing high support for the selective meal plan.

● In fact, Article 15 (Form of Referendum) of Chapter 2 of the current Referendum Act stipulates that "a referendum shall be conducted in a form that expresses consent or dissent on a specific matter or selects one of two options." This can be interpreted as a regulation to prevent the referendum content from encompassing the entirety of public opinion while allowing for multiple interpretations, by using a consent/dissent or choice-based question frame.

● According to these regulations, the signature campaign by the Movement to Expel Welfare Populism is, formally speaking, a binary choice proposal: "Oppose the currently promoted universal free lunch plan, and support the plan to gradually implement free lunches for the bottom 50% of income earners by 2014." However, in terms of content, the issue itself allows for multiple interpretations, making it highly debatable.

● The problem is that the latter option, "gradually implementing free lunches for the bottom 50% of income earners by 2014," does not encompass all positions opposing universal free lunches. This is because various third options are possible regarding selective free lunches, even for those who oppose universal free lunches. The ruling Grand National Party, for instance, criticizes the universal free lunch plan as a "rich lunch" that benefits even the wealthy and has proposed extending free lunches to the bottom 70%. Furthermore, there can be diverse differences in opinions regarding the timing of free lunches. Although the signature campaign is framed as a binary choice, the existence of these third options means that proceeding with the referendum based on the Movement Headquarters' proposal, which does not encompass them, could lead to the exclusion of residents with third perspectives.

● Furthermore, Article 7, Paragraph 2 (Subject of Referendum) of the Referendum Act also appears to be grounds for legal dispute. The provision states that "matters falling under the authority or jurisdiction of the state or other local governments" cannot be subject to a referendum. Given that the budget for the current universal free lunch plan is executed not by the Seoul Metropolitan Government but by the Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education and district offices, the question of whether a Seoul referendum has binding power over this matter could also become a point of contention.

[Key Political Indicators] Opposition's upward trend falters after April 27 by-elections

- Presidential approval rating and Grand National Party approval rating decline; Democratic Party approval rating declines.

- Park Geun-hye maintains lead as potential presidential candidate; Sohn Hak-kyu declines to single digits at 8.0%.

(1) Presidential Approval Rating / Political Party Approval Rating

MB and the Grand National Party reverse their downward trend after the April 27 by-elections.

MB: 35.9% (April) → 39.3% (June), Grand National Party approval rating: 37.5% (April) → 38.4% (June)

Democratic Party: 32.1% (April) → 27.6% (June); gap in approval ratings with the Grand National Party widens again to double digits.

- In the June survey, the approval ratings for the President and the Grand National Party, which had been declining since their defeat in the April 27 by-elections, show a slight upward reversal. The President's approval rating, which was 44.6% in the March survey before the by-elections, fell to 35.1% in the April survey and 34.9% in the May survey following the by-election accountability debate, but rose slightly to 39.3% in the June survey. The ruling Grand National Party, whose approval rating had shown a slight downward trend from 38.4% in March to 37.5% in April and 36.4% in May, rose again to 38.4% in the June survey, returning to its March level.

- In contrast, the Democratic Party's approval rating, which was 22.2% just before the election, trailing the Grand National Party by 16.2 percentage points, rose to 32.1% in the April 27 by-elections, narrowing the gap to 3.0 percentage points behind the Grand National Party. However, it began to decline again from the May survey, falling to 30.0% in May and 27.6% in June. In the June survey, the approval rating gap with the Grand National Party has widened again to 10.8 percentage points.

[Figure 10] Trend of Approval Ratings for the President, Grand National Party, and Democratic Party (%)

Ruling party consistently pursues leftward policies.

Democratic Party faces dual pressure from left and right; shows inconsistent stance on FTA, tuition fees, and KBS license fees.

- The reason the President and the ruling party's approval ratings have escaped their downward trend is that, despite recent adversities following their election defeat, they have consistently pursued leftward policies by successively raising reform agendas such as the excess profit sharing system and the eradication of public corruption, as well as the issue of halved tuition fees. Indeed, as argued on page 5, 76.2% of the public has called for the Grand National Party to shift its policy position towards the center or progressive spectrum.

- Ultimately, the halt in the decline and slight upward trend in approval ratings for the Grand National Party and President Lee Myung-bak can be attributed to the government and ruling party's leftward shift after the April 27 by-elections. While this may not have fully dispelled public doubts about the sincerity of these changes, it appears to have had a limited effect in preventing further decline and initiating an upward trend.

- Conversely, this report argued that the Democratic Party is under dual and conflicting pressures: the progressive base demands a further shift towards progressive policies, while the centrist bloc calls for a move towards centrist or conservative policy positions. This dual pressure has manifested as an inconsistent adherence to public opinion in the major policies of the Democratic Party leadership, which is interpreted as the cause of the current decline in approval ratings.

- The current leadership, particularly the leadership elected after the party convention in October, has shown inconsistency. After agreeing with the Grand National Party on the conclusion of the EU-Korea FTA and the recent increase in KBS license fees, they retracted the decision due to internal backlash. More recently, during candlelight vigils, party leader Sohn Hak-kyu proposed phased free school meals, but faced backlash from the protestors and changed course the next day to advocate for immediate implementation of halved tuition fees by 2012.

- The gap in approval ratings between the two parties is larger among centrists than among progressives or conservatives. This can be linked to the phenomenon where the Grand National Party's approval rating remains stable among centrists, while the Democratic Party's approval rating is significantly decreasing.

Gap in Grand National Party and Democratic Party approval ratings widens among centrists.

- [Figure 10] illustrates the trend in approval ratings for the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party among centrists. In the January survey, the Grand National Party received 39.6% support from centrists. After the defeat in the April by-elections, it fell to 34.1%, but has since shown a slight upward trend, reaching 34.9% by emphasizing its leftward reforms and 35.5% in the June survey.

- In contrast, the Democratic Party's approval rating among centrists rose to 38.0% in the April survey immediately after the April by-elections, surpassing the Grand National Party. However, it dropped to 32.9% just one month later, falling behind the Grand National Party again. In the current survey, it has decreased by 5.1 percentage points from the previous month to 27.8%, widening the approval rating gap between the two parties to 7.7 percentage points.

[Figure 10] Trend of Approval Ratings for the Grand National Party and Democratic Party among Centrists (%)

(2) Potential Presidential Candidate Approval Ratings: Park Geun-hye maintains lead; Sohn Hak-kyu declines; Moon Jae-in rises.

Simple approval rating: Park Geun-hye 37.1% > Sohn Hak-kyu 8.0% > Han Myeong-sook 5.7% > Oh Se-hoon 4.8% > Yoo Si-min 4.3% > Moon Jae-in 4.1%

Park Geun-hye vs. Sohn Hak-kyu: Gap widened from the previous month, Park 58.0% vs. Sohn 26.7%

● A notable characteristic of this survey based on simple approval ratings is that while former Grand National Party leader Park Geun-hye rose by 1.8%p from the previous month to 37.1%, Democratic Party leader Sohn Hak-kyu fell by 4.0%p to 8.0%, dropping back into the single digits. Following were former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook at 5.7%, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 4.8%, Representative Yoo Si-min of the Participation Party at 4.3%, and Chairman Moon Jae-in at 4.1%.

● Although Chairman Moon Jae-in ranked 8th with 2.6% in last month's survey, he rose to 6th place this month, an increase of 1.5%p. Considering that former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, who has pro-Roh Moo-hyun leanings, may not participate in the presidential primary, and that Yoo Si-min's political standing has been considerably damaged by the defeat in the April 27 by-election, with a high probability that Han Myeong-sook's supporters will shift to Moon Jae-in, it can be seen that if Sohn Hak-kyu's approval rating continues to decline, Moon Jae-in could rapidly emerge as a contender. We cannot rule out this possibility.

● Among the Grand National Party, Governor Kim Moon-soo at 3.5% and former Representative Chung Mong-joon at 3.0% remained in the lower ranks. Among the opposition parties, Supreme Council member Chung Dong-young of the Democratic Party at 2.1% and Governor Kim Du-gwan at 0.8% show signs of ceding the dark horse position to Chairman Moon Jae-in.

[Table 3] Changes in Support for Next Presidential Candidates (%)

** Governor Kim Du-gwan of Gyeongnam Province has been included in the survey subjects since January 2011; Chairman Moon Jae-in was added in May 2011.

*** The January survey was conducted by Hankook Research independently, not as a regular joint survey by EAI and Hankook Research.

**** Starting with the March 2011 survey, the RDD landline method was used.

Park Geun-hye vs. Sohn Hak-kyu: Gap Widens in Head-to-Head Hypothetical Matchup, Park at 58.0% vs. Sohn at 26.7%

● Meanwhile, in a one-on-one hypothetical contest between the leading candidates of each camp, former Representative Park Geun-hye and Representative Sohn Hak-kyu as the unified opposition candidate, the gap in approval ratings has widened further compared to the previous month.

● In last month's survey, former Representative Park garnered 51.7% and Representative Sohn received 37.1%, a narrowed gap of 14.6 percentage points. However, in the current survey, former Representative Park leads with 58.0% and Representative Sohn with 26.7%, widening the gap to over double at 31.3 percentage points. Former Representative Park's approval rating increased by 6.3 percentage points from the previous month, while Representative Sohn's approval rating decreased by 10.4 percentage points, resulting in an additional 16.7 percentage point widening of the gap.

● Former Representative Park's approval rating showed no significant difference among progressive voters, but increased by 7.5 percentage points among moderate voters and 8.2 percentage points among conservative voters. Conversely, Representative Sohn's approval rating declined across all ideological spectrums: a decrease of 7.2 percentage points among progressives and 7.6 percentage points among moderates, with a substantial drop among conservatives. Considering that Representative Sohn's primary support base lies within the progressive and moderate demographics, this indicates a simultaneous decline in support from his key constituencies. In terms of party support, there was a significant decrease among supporters of the Democratic Party and other minor parties. Support from Democratic Party supporters dropped from 68.7% in May to 54.0%, and from supporters of minor parties, it decreased from 56.8% in May to 41.5%, a decline of 15 percentage points in both cases.

[Table 4] Park Geun-hye vs. Sohn Hak-kyu: One-on-One Hypothetical Matchup (%)

Suitability as Ruling Party Candidate: Park Geun-hye 50.5% > Oh Se-hoon 10.2% > Kim Moon-soo 6.0% > Chung Mong-joon 5.5%

Suitability as Unified Opposition Candidate: Sohn 29.3% > Han Myeong-sook 10.6% > Yoo Si-min 9.1% > Moon Jae-in/Chung Dong-young 5.8%

● In the assessment of suitability as a ruling party candidate, former Representative Park Geun-hye leads significantly with 50.5%, far ahead of Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 10.2% and Governor Kim Moon-soo at 6.0%. Former Representative Chung Mong-joon garnered 5.5%, showing results close to Governor Kim Moon-soo, who has recently been embroiled in controversy due to public remarks. Although the response selecting former Representative Park decreased slightly compared to last month, her overall lead remains prominent. Among supporters of the Grand National Party, 61.9% chose former Representative Park, significantly outpacing the second-place candidate, Oh Se-hoon, who received 14.3%.

● Conversely, in the assessment of suitability as a unified opposition candidate, Representative Sohn Hak-kyu, who received 36.1% support in the May survey, saw his support decrease to 29.3% in the current survey. Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook follows with 10.6%, Representative Yoo Si-min with 9.1%, and Chairman Moon Jae-in and Supreme Council Member Chung Dong-young at 5.8% each. Among Democratic Party supporters, Representative Sohn Hak-kyu's support dropped from nearly half (44.9%) in the previous month's survey to 30.7% in the current survey. In contrast, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook received 18.8% support, Representative Yoo Si-min 13.2%, Supreme Council Member Chung Dong-young 9.6%, and Chairman Moon Jae-in 7.9%.

[Figure 11] Changes in Grand National Party Presidential Candidate Suitability (%)

[Figure 12] Changes in Opposition Unified Candidate Suitability (%)