[Public Opinion Briefing No. 96] 2011 Survey on the Trust and Influence of Powerful Politicians

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 96] A Joint Project by EAI, YTN, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research: March Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. Survey on the Trust and Influence of Powerful Politicians

2. Is the Race for the Next Presidential Election Gearing Up?

3. The Japanese Earthquake and South Korea's Nuclear Power Plant Safety

4. Regular Political Indicators

[Survey on the Trust and Influence of Powerful Politicians] Park Geun-hye Rises from 4th to 2nd in Influence, Maintains 1st in Trust

Lee Myung-bak Ranks 1st in Influence with a score of 6.36 → 6.25↓, and 2nd in Trust (previously 4th), with a score of 4.92 → 4.93

Park Geun-hye Ranks 2nd in Influence and 1st in Trust, with scores improving from 5.69 → 6.06 for influence and 5.40 → 5.68 for trust

● Following the 2010 survey, 10 influential politicians and potential presidential candidates were selected, and 800 adult men and women nationwide were asked to rate their influence and trust on a scale of 0 (very low) to 10 (very high), with 5 being neutral.

● The survey results show that President Lee Myung-bak ranked first in influence with 6.25 points and second in trust with 4.93 points. In the 2010 survey, President Lee ranked first in influence with 6.36 points and fourth in trust with 4.92 points. His influence score decreased by 0.11 points compared to last year, while his trust score remained similar. The increase in his trust ranking is largely attributed to the decline in trust scores of Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Governor Kim Moon-soo, who showed strong performance in last year's survey.

● In contrast, former Representative Park Geun-hye, who had fallen to fourth place in influence in the survey immediately after the 2010 local elections, ranked second in influence with 6.06 points and maintained an undisputed first place in trust with 5.68 points in the 2011 survey. In the 2010 survey, she ranked fourth in influence with 5.69 points and tied for first in trust with Governor Kim Moon-soo at 5.40 points. Former Representative Park was the only politician whose influence and trust scores both increased. This indicates that she is perceived as a leader with strong influence and a solid base of trust among the 10 surveyed politicians.

[Table 1] 2011 Survey on the Influence and Trust of Powerful Politicians (Scores)

Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Governor Kim Moon-soo, who surged in the 2010 local elections, Showed Deterioration in 2011 Rankings

Opposition Candidates Mostly Saw Declines in Trust Scores; Chung Dong-young Trails, Sohn Hak-kyu and Yoo Si-min Compete

● The most significant characteristic of the 2011 survey is the sharp decline in evaluations for Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Governor Kim Moon-soo, who had rapidly risen in influence and trust rankings in the 2010 survey. Governor Kim Moon-soo, who ranked second in influence (5.82 points) and tied for first in trust (5.40 points) in 2010, fell to fourth in influence (5.06 points) and third in trust (4.69 points) in 2011. Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who ranked third in influence (5.79 points) and third in trust (5.25 points) in 2010, maintained his third-place ranking in influence (5.26 points) in 2011 but dropped to fourth in trust (4.65 points). Former Representative Chung Mong-joon remained in the lower-middle tier, ranking sixth in influence (4.39 points) and seventh in trust (4.18 points).

● Among opposition candidates, Democratic Party leader Sohn Hak-kyu and People's Participation Party leader Yoo Si-min received relatively high evaluations. Sohn Hak-kyu, who was in seclusion in Gangwon Province during the June survey last year, saw his influence score increase after being elected party leader in the October convention. His influence score rose from 4.35 points (7th place) in the 2010 survey to 4.61 points (5th place) in the current survey. Although his trust score slightly decreased from 4.36 points in 2010 to 4.20 points in the current survey, he moved up two places to tie with Yoo Si-min for fifth place. Yoo Si-min, who recently took office as party leader, dropped one place in influence from sixth (4.55 points) in 2010 to seventh (4.37 points) in 2011. His trust score decreased from 4.63 points in 2010 to 4.20 points, but he maintained his fifth-place ranking.

● In contrast, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, Liberty Forward Party leader Lee Hoi-chang, and Representative Chung Dong-young are classified in the lower tier for influence and trust as potential presidential candidates. Former Prime Minister Han, who was considered a leading opposition contender until the 2010 local elections, has seen her influence and trust scores decline since then. In the 2010 survey, she ranked fifth in influence (4.58 points) and sixth in trust (4.50 points), but in the 2011 survey, she ranked eighth in influence (4.05 points) and eighth in trust (4.06 points). Liberty Forward Party leader Lee Hoi-chang saw some improvement in both influence and trust scores compared to the 2010 survey, but his ranking remained the same at ninth. Representative Chung Dong-young ranked last. The notable decline in trust scores among most opposition candidates suggests that political setbacks for the ruling party are not translating into increased support for the opposition.

Classification of Leadership Types: Former Representative Park Uniquely Possesses a Trust Base Proportional to Strong Influence

President Lee Myung-bak, Governor Kim Moon-soo, and Mayor Oh Se-hoon have low credibility relative to their influence, representing power with weak legitimacy.

Latecomers such as Sohn Hak-kyu, Yoo Si-min, and Chung Mong-joon face the dilemma of a weak presence and low trust.

● By cross-referencing influence and trust scores, public evaluations of politicians' leadership can be categorized into four types: strong leadership with high influence and trust; leadership with high influence but low trust, making it vulnerable to legitimacy crises; moralistic leadership with low influence but high trust; and weak leadership with low influence and trust, indicating a weak presence.

● President Lee Myung-bak was evaluated as a leader with high influence and a strong trust base during his 2007 presidential campaign. However, since taking office in 2009, he has been perceived as a leader whose trust does not match his influence. Former Representative Park has consistently maintained high scores in both influence and trust since the 2007 survey. She is classified as a leader with a stable trust base, which is rare among South Korean politicians [Table 2].

● In the 2010 survey results [Figure 1], Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Governor Kim Moon-soo, buoyed by the expectations of Grand National Party supporters after their victories in the local elections, received high trust along with strong influence, similar to former Representative Park. However, in the 2011 survey, one year later, their trust scores declined sharply, classifying them as leaders with lower trust relative to their influence [Figure 2].

● Excluding these individuals, most politicians received evaluations below the neutral score of 5 for both influence and trust, placing them in the category of low influence and low trust. They are perceived as leaders with a weak presence and face challenges to their authenticity. Sohn Hak-kyu, Yoo Si-min, and Chung Mong-joon maintain relatively higher influence and trust among this group, while Han Myeong-sook, Lee Hoi-chang, and Chung Dong-young are in the lowest tier.

● It is noteworthy that influence and trust generally show a proportional relationship. This implies that power and legitimacy should be cultivated as complementary political assets. Moralistic leadership with weak influence is rarely effective in practice, while leadership with high influence but weak trust is vulnerable to crises of authenticity.

[Table 2] 2007-2011 Scores and Rankings for Trust and Influence

[Figure 1] 2010 Survey on Influence and Trust of Powerful Politicians (Scores)

[Figure 2] 2011 Survey on Influence and Trust of Powerful Politicians (Scores)

[Is the Race for the Next Presidential Election Gearing Up?]

Support for Presidential Candidates and Reasons for Support: Park 36.9% > Yoo 10.6% > Oh 8.1% > Han 6.4%

- Ruling party candidates are supported for personal attributes; opposition candidates for ideology

● In the March survey of potential presidential candidates, former Representative Park Geun-hye's support rose by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month to 36.9%. Yoo Si-min, who recently became the leader of the People's Participation Party, ranked second with 10.6%, followed by Mayor Oh Se-hoon and former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook at 8.1% and 6.4%, respectively. Governor Kim Moon-soo ranked fifth with 5.2%.

● Among opposition candidates, the election of the leader of the People's Participation Party, which advocates for the pro-Roh faction, has led to an upward trend in support for pro-Roh candidates and a downward trend for Representative Sohn Hak-kyu. While there is a noticeable upward trend for pro-Roh figures such as Yoo Si-min (3.4%p), Han Myeong-sook (2.0%p), and Governor Kim Doo-kwan (0.9%p), the gradual nature of this increase suggests it is unlikely to cause a significant shift in the opposition landscape beyond a temporary convention effect. Representative Sohn's support, which was 6.8% in the January survey, dropped by 3.2 percentage points to 3.6% in the February survey and further to 3.1% this month, placing him behind Lee Hoi-chang of the Liberty Forward Party (3.8%) in seventh place. This indicates a return to his support levels prior to his election as party leader in October. Following Representative Sohn were former Representative Chung Mong-joon (3.0%), former Minister Chung Dong-young (2.6%), and Governor Kim Doo-kwan (2.0%).

[Table 3] Support for Next Presidential Candidates (%)

* The survey was not conducted in May due to local elections and security perception surveys.

** Minister of Special Affairs Lee Jae-oh has been included in the survey since September.

*** Governor Kim Doo-kwan of Gyeongnam Province has been included in the survey since January 2011.

**** The January survey was conducted by Korea Research independently, not as part of the EAI/Korea Research regular survey.

● What factors are influencing the choices of these potential candidates? Supporters of ruling party candidates primarily cite personal attributes, while supporters of opposition candidates mainly cite ideological factors. When asked about the reasons for supporting their chosen candidate, a significant majority of respondents cited personal factors such as 'individual ability and career.' This was the case for 44.2% of Park Geun-hye's supporters, 50.1% of Oh Se-hoon's supporters, 46.4% of Kim Moon-soo's supporters, and 41.7% of Lee Hoi-chang's supporters. In contrast, opposition supporters primarily cited ideological factors as the top reason, with personal attributes ranking second. For Yoo Si-min's supporters, 42.1% cited ideological factors, while only 22.8% cited personal abilities. Among Han Myeong-sook's supporters, 39.0% cited ideological factors and 33.7% cited personal attributes. For Sohn Hak-kyu's supporters, 35.3% cited the candidate's ideology and 34.8% cited personal attributes.

● Factors such as party affiliation or perceived electability do not appear to be the primary determinants for current candidate selection. However, for Representative Sohn Hak-kyu, whose presidential support rating is currently declining, party affiliation was cited as a reason by 16.5% of respondents, a significantly higher proportion compared to other candidates. For former Representative Park, the response indicating consideration of electability was 12.3%, suggesting some effect of the 'inevitable winner' narrative.

[Table 4] Reasons for Supporting Next Presidential Candidates (%)

Suitability for the Presidential Nomination within the Ruling and Opposition Parties: Undecided Voters Decreasing, Preferences for Presidential Candidates Beginning to Shift

Grand National Party Nomination Suitability: Park Geun-hye 55.0% > Oh Se-hoon 12.1% > Kim Moon-soo 9.9% > Chung Mong-joon 6.2%

Among Grand National Party Supporters: Park Geun-hye 57.8% > Oh Se-hoon 14.7% > Kim Moon-soo 10.0%

● In questions asking respondents to choose from potential presidential candidates regardless of party affiliation, personal attributes appear to play a relatively significant role in determining presidential support compared to party affiliation. However, the opposition parties are attempting to reverse their disadvantage by forming a unified opposition candidate to face the ruling party's candidate.

● Compared to the January survey results, the proportion of undecided voters has sharply decreased, and the percentage of respondents expressing a preference for a presidential candidate has increased, with one year remaining until the presidential election. This indicates that voters' preferences for presidential candidates are beginning to shift. Among ruling party candidates, there is a clear concentration of support for former Representative Park Geun-hye, while the opposition is witnessing a contest between Representative Sohn Hak-kyu and Yoo Si-min for the position of a unified opposition candidate.

● When asked about suitable candidates for the Grand National Party's presidential nomination, the January 2011 survey showed that 41.5% of respondents chose former Representative Park Geun-hye, falling short of a majority, with Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 6.5% and Governor Kim Moon-soo at 6.3%. Those who responded 'none' or 'don't know' accounted for 41.1%. However, in the March survey, two months later, a strong concentration of support for former Representative Park is evident. The proportion of respondents who considered former Representative Park suitable for the Grand National Party's nomination exceeded a majority at 55.0%. Mayor Oh Se-hoon received 12.1%, Governor Kim Moon-soo 9.9%, and former Representative Chung Mong-joon 6.2%. The 'none/don't know' responses significantly decreased, and while overall support for existing potential candidates increased, it was primarily concentrated towards former Representative Park.

[Figure 3] Preference for Grand National Party Presidential Nominee (%)

● Examining the responses for former Representative Park by region, she received the highest support in all regions. Support was particularly high in Daegu/Gyeongbuk (73.0%), Chungcheong (60.6%), and Busan/Gyeongnam (57.9%). In Seoul (48.2%), Incheon/Gyeonggi (50.2%), and Gwangju/Honam (53.2%), her support base appeared relatively weaker.

● Ideologically, across all demographic groups, more than half of respondents preferred former Representative Park as the Grand National Party's nominee. This preference was observed among conservatives (56.6%), moderates (57.8%), and even progressives (52.5%).

● By party affiliation, 57.8% of Grand National Party supporters considered former Representative Park suitable for the nomination, followed by Mayor Oh Se-hoon (14.7%), Governor Kim Moon-soo (10.0%), and former Representative Chung Mong-joon (5.8%). Among unaffiliated voters, 51.8% chose former Representative Park, 9.4% chose Mayor Oh Se-hoon, and 9.0% chose Governor Kim Moon-soo, with 20.5% responding 'none' or 'don't know'.

[Table 5] Preference for Grand National Party Presidential Nominee by Demographic Group (%)

Suitability for Unified Opposition Candidate: Sohn Hak-kyu 21.1% > Yoo Si-min 18.8% > Han Myeong-sook 11.9%

The Direction of Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook's Supporters and Undecided Voters Will Play a Decisive Role.

● Although Representative Sohn Hak-kyu ranked seventh with 3.1% in the survey of potential presidential candidates regardless of party affiliation, he emerged as the top choice for a unified opposition candidate, with 21.1% of respondents selecting him over other opposition candidates. As indicated by the factors influencing candidate choice, the premium associated with being the leader of the largest opposition party appears to be at play for Representative Sohn.

● Yoo Si-min, leader of the People's Participation Party, ranked a close second with 18.8% support. Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, who has stepped back from the presidential race, showed political resilience by securing 11.9%. Former Representative Chung Dong-young received 9.4%, Representative Chung Sye-kyun 2.0%, and Noh Hoe-chan and Lee Jung-hee received less than 2% each.

● In the January survey, when respondents were asked about their suitability for a unified opposition candidate among opposition candidates only, the rankings were the same. Compared to January, the proportion of respondents who had no preferred candidate or were undecided decreased significantly from 50.0% to 30.5%. However, their choices did not concentrate on a single candidate but rather led to a general increase in support for potential opposition candidates such as Sohn Hak-kyu, Yoo Si-min, Han Myeong-sook, and Chung Dong-young.

[Figure 4] Preference for Unified Opposition Candidate (%)

● Examining the preference for a unified opposition candidate by region, Representative Sohn Hak-kyu leads in Seoul, Honam, and Daegu/Gyeongbuk, while Yoo Si-min leads in Daejeon/Chungcheong and Busan/Gyeongnam. In Seoul, Sohn Hak-kyu received 23.4% and Yoo Si-min received 16.0%. In Gwangju/Honam, Sohn Hak-kyu received 24.1% and Yoo Si-min received 8.6%. In Daegu/Gyeongbuk, Sohn Hak-kyu narrowly led with 24.4% compared to Yoo Si-min's 21.2%. In Gyeonggi/Incheon, the percentages were similar at 19.8% and 20.6%, respectively. Conversely, in Daejeon/Chungcheong, Sohn Hak-kyu received 15.8% and Yoo Si-min received 21.0%, while in Busan/Gyeongnam, Sohn Hak-kyu received 19.6% and Yoo Si-min received 25.1%.

● By ideological tendency, among conservatives, Representative Sohn was preferred at 23.7% and Representative Yoo Si-min at 17.4%. Among moderates, Representative Sohn Hak-kyu was preferred at 20.7% and Representative Yoo Si-min at 18.8%, giving Representative Sohn an advantage. Among progressives, Representative Sohn was at 19.6% and Representative Yoo Si-min at 24.7%, with Yoo leading.

● By party support, 26.5% of Democratic Party supporters backed Representative Sohn Hak-kyu, while only 19.4% supported Representative Yoo Si-min. Among supporters of minor parties or unaffiliated voters, Representative Yoo Si-min's support exceeded that of Representative Sohn Hak-kyu.

● Representative Sohn Hak-kyu bases his support on Democratic Party constituencies in Seoul and the Honam region, while Representative Yoo Si-min is advantageous in the Chungcheong/Busan/Gyeongnam regions, among ideological progressives, and minor progressive parties. However, the current support levels between the two are broadly neck and neck. Han Myeong-sook, who is 11.9% in support as a unified opposition candidate despite being one step behind in the presidential race, and the undecided group (none/don't know) reaching 28.4%, will determine the future direction of opposition party unification.

[Table 6] Suitability for Unified Opposition Candidate by Demographic Group Preference (%)

【Major Issues】- Japanese Earthquake and Nuclear Power Plant Safety

● The magnitude 9.0 earthquake on March 11, followed by a tsunami, caused immense property and human casualties in Japan, along with nuclear power plant explosions. Consequently, there is heightened concern regarding the ripple effects domestically and internationally.

● Above all, concerns are growing about the negative impact of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami on the South Korean economy. As the risks associated with Japanese nuclear power plants have been exposed, concerns about the safety of nuclear power plants in South Korea are also increasing. Furthermore, given the strong anti-Japanese sentiment in South Korea, an atmosphere of unprecedented humanitarian aid is forming.

● This has led to optimistic views that a new turning point may be emerging in South Korea-Japan relations. However, amidst the response to the earthquake disaster, Japan's announcement on the 24th of reviewing middle school social studies textbooks that assert territorial claims over Dokdo has sparked criticism regarding fundraising for earthquake relief.

Impact of Japan's Great Earthquake on the South Korean Economy

Positive effects 33.7%, Neutral 22.8%, Negative effects 41.4%, Highly educated/younger demographic pessimistic

● Firstly, regarding the impact of the Japanese earthquake and nuclear power plants on the South Korean economy, divergent forecasts are emerging domestically. On one hand, as presented by the Korea Economic Research Institute, there is a projection that the decrease in Japanese industrial production will create a substitute effect, leading to an increase in South Korean exports. On the other hand, concerns are raised that if the supply chain disruptions for parts from Japan's component industry are prolonged, production disruptions for South Korean companies heavily reliant on Japanese components will become unavoidable. Additionally, as announced by Goldman Sachs Asset Management on March 24, there are projections that the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the global economy will be limited.

● The public opinion in South Korea generally expresses high levels of concern regarding the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the South Korean economy. Responses indicating 'positive impact' were 33.7% (very positive 6.3%, generally positive 27.4%), 'neutral' responses were 22.8%, and responses indicating 'negative impact' were 41.4% (generally negative 34.1%, very negative 7.3%). 'Don't know/no response' accounted for 2.1%. Overall, while concerns about negative impacts were prevalent, there were also a considerable number of responses suggesting positive impacts.

● Notably, there are differences in perception by generation and education level, with concerns about negative impacts being greater among younger generations and those with higher education. Among those in their 20s, the response of 'negative impact' was 54.8%, and among those in their 30s, it was 49.2%, reaching a majority. However, among those in their 40s, it was 38.3%, among those in their 50s, it was 32.2%, and among those aged 60 and above, it was only 31.6%. By education level, among those with middle school education or less, concerns about negative impacts were only 31.4%, while among high school graduates, it was 36.5%, and among those with university degrees or higher, it was 47.1%, showing a clear difference in perception.

[Figure 5] Impact of Japan's Great Earthquake on the South Korean Economy (%)

* Don't know/no response not included.

[Figure 6] Perception of Impact of Japanese Earthquake on South Korean Economy by Generation and Education Level: Negative Outlook Rate (%)

High Consensus on Fundraising for Japanese Earthquake Relief, but Cautious Outlook on South Korea-Japan Relations

76.4% Consensus on "Fundraising for Japanese Earthquake Relief and Government Support"

● Currently, there is a high level of consensus regarding fundraising to aid victims of the Japanese earthquake and the government's dispatch of rescue teams, even after news of Japan's textbook review asserting territorial claims over Dokdo. Responses of 'strongly agree' were 30.0%, and 'generally agree' were 46.4%, with a remarkable 76.4% evaluating it positively. Conversely, 'somewhat disagree' was 17.7%, and 'strongly disagree' was 5.4%, with negative responses accounting for only 23.0%. Regardless of the Japanese government's foreign policy, the consensus for humanitarian aid was consistently high across all demographic groups.

[Figure 7] Consensus on Fundraising for Japanese Earthquake Relief and Government Personnel Support in South Korea (%)

* Don't know/no response not included.

South Korea-Japan Relations

"Deteriorate or remain the same" 24.4%, "Improve in the short term, return to original state in the long term" 49.5%, "Improve in the long term" 24.6%

● However, there is a predominantly pessimistic outlook regarding future South Korea-Japan relations. The projection that relations will 'worsen from now' was 2.3%, and the response for 'remain similar to now' was 22.1%, totaling 24.4% with a pessimistic outlook of worsening or no improvement. In contrast, nearly half, 49.5%, of respondents showed a cautious attitude, stating 'it will improve for a while but return to its current state over time,' while only 24.6% responded optimistically, believing it 'will improve in the long term.' Overall, cautious views were consistently high, with differences in perspectives identified by generation and education level.

● Among those in their 20s, pessimistic views that relations will 'worsen or remain the same' were 28.0%, cautious views that 'it will improve short-term but return to its original state long-term' were 56.2%, and optimistic views that 'it will improve in the long term' were only 15.8%. Among those in their 30s, pessimism was 20.4%, caution was 56.0%, and optimism was 23.0%. Among those in their 40s, pessimism was 26.2%, caution was 53.1%, and optimism was 20.1%. However, among those in their 50s, pessimism was 28.0%, and caution was 38.9%, both relatively low, while optimism was relatively high at 33.0%. Among those aged 60 and above, pessimism was 20.0%, and caution was 41.6%, but optimistic projections were 32.5%.

● By education level, pessimism was higher among those with lower education, with 32.2% projecting that relations will worsen or remain unchanged. Cautious views that relations will improve short-term but return to their original state long-term accounted for 35.4%, and optimistic projections that relations will improve long-term were only 25.1%. Among high school graduates, 21.0% held pessimistic views, 54.2% held cautious views, and optimistic projections remained at about 24.8%. Among those with university degrees or higher, pessimistic views were around 24.1%, cautious views were 51.5%, and optimistic views were around 24.2%. This indicates a trend where pessimism is stronger among those with lower education levels, and caution is more prevalent among those with higher education levels.

[Figure 8] Outlook on South Korea-Japan Relations (%)

* Don't know/no response not included.

Are South Korean Nuclear Power Plants Safe? "Safe" 41.1% vs. "Unsafe" 52.1%

"South Korean Nuclear Power Plants are Safe" MB Supporters 50.3% vs. MB Critics 32.5%

● Despite President Lee Myung-bak's strong confidence in the safety of South Korean nuclear power plants recently, public perception regarding their safety is largely one of concern. Public opinion affirming the safety of South Korean nuclear power plants was only 41.1% (very safe 2.4%, generally safe 38.7%), while responses indicating they are unsafe exceeded half at 52.1% (not very safe 43.4%, not at all safe 8.8%).

● Notably, the assessment of South Korean nuclear power plant safety is sharply divided based on the current administration's stance. Among supporters who view the President's state administration positively, 50.3% responded that they are safe, while only 39.7% held the view that they are unsafe. Conversely, among those who are critical and distrustful of the state administration, only 32.5% believed South Korean nuclear power plants are safe, with a significant 63.2% responding that they are unsafe.

● Since the current administration took office, extreme conflicts over national security and major issues, such as the import of U.S. beef and the sinking of the Cheonan, have exacerbated national division and social conflict. The issue of nuclear power plants is also likely to become a political contentious issue, irrespective of expert evaluations or the government's official position. It is assessed that comprehensive inspections and improvement measures for the nuclear power plant safety management system are urgently needed, along with multifaceted communication and persuasion efforts to resolve public distrust based on these measures.

[Figure 9] Assessment of South Korean Nuclear Power Plant Safety (%)

【Major Political Indicators】

[Presidential Approval Rating] 44.6% in March, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month

[Party Support Ratings] Grand National Party 38.4%, Democratic Party 22.2%

● The President's approval rating in March was 44.6%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from February, indicating that the approval rating has remained stagnant since February. The approval rating, which rose at the beginning of the year due to operations such as the rescue mission in the Gulf of Aden, has recently been stagnant due to factors such as the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, the housing crisis, price instability, and recent military corruption incidents.

● In the March survey, the Grand National Party had a support rating of 38.4% and the Democratic Party had 22.2%. Although the gap in support ratings narrowed slightly to 16.2 percentage points compared to the February survey, the gap between the two parties, which had narrowed to 3.7 percentage points after the opposition party's strong performance in the June 2010 local elections, began to widen continuously thereafter. Since the latter half of 2010, the gap between the two parties has been widening. On one hand, following the Yeonpyeong Island shelling, public opinion favoring a hardline stance against North Korea intensified, diverging from the Democratic Party's security policy towards North Korea. On the other hand, the Democratic Party's repeated moves towards a more radical left-wing stance, such as the universal free welfare policy, are presumed to have led to a considerable departure of centrist voters.

[Figure 10] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating (%)

* The January survey was conducted by Hankook Research independently, not as a regular joint survey by EAI and Hankook Research.

Grand National Party support among centrists: 29.2% (November) → 33.5% (December) → 39.6% (January) → 37.4% (February)

Support among centrists decreased after the Yeonpyeong Island shelling and the Democratic Party's shift to the left

● In fact, examining the party support patterns among centrists reveals that around November 2010, they were competing equally with the Grand National Party among ideological centrists. However, after the Yeonpyeong Island shelling in November and the Democratic Party's shift to the left, a trend of support leaning towards the Grand National Party emerged among centrists, and this gap has been gradually widening.

● Since November, support for the Grand National Party among centrists has been stable, maintaining the mid-30% range: 29.2% (November) → 33.5% (December) → 39.6% (January) → 37.4% (February) → 34.3% (March). In contrast, the Democratic Party's support has stagnated: 29.0% (November) → 28.5% (December) → 29.3% (January), and then fell to 21.7% among centrists in the February survey, remaining at 21.9% in the March survey.

[Figure 11] Changes in the Gap in Support Ratings Between Ruling and Opposition Parties Among Centrists (June 2010 - March 2011) (%)

[Table 7] Changes in Party Support Ratings (March 2010 - February 2011) (%)

* Includes 'No party support' and 'Don't know/no response'.

** From March to May 2010, Han Hwa-kap's new party (Peace Democratic Party) and Shim Dae-pyung's new party (People's Central Union) were included in the options and marked under 'Other'.

*** Not surveyed in January 2011.

**** The January survey was conducted by Hankook Research independently, not as a regular joint survey by EAI and Hankook Research.