[Public Opinion Briefing 94-2] Presidential Approval Rating 45.0%, Presidential Pre-candidate Park Geun-hye 36.0%

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 94] Joint Project of EAI, YTN, JoongAng Ilbo, Korea Research: February Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

Evaluation of the 3rd Anniversary of Presidential Inauguration and Outlook for the 4th Year of Administration

The Economy is the Issue!

1. Evaluation of the 3rd Anniversary of Inauguration: "Did Well" 44.7% / 4th Year Administration Direction: The Economy is the Issue!

2. Public Opinion on Sectoral Issues / Presidential Approval Rating 45.0%, Presidential Pre-candidate Park Geun-hye 36.0%

【Public Opinion on Sectoral Issues】

1. Economy

In economic and social issues, pro-government opinion shows a slight advantage. Regarding the National Assembly's ratification of the FTA and the selection of recipients for free school lunches, a majority favors rushing the ratification and adopting a selective approach to free lunches based on certain criteria rather than universal welfare for all students. In terms of economic outlook, a majority expects to emerge from the economic crisis soon, while a realistic assessment suggests that household and national economies will not change significantly in a year.

[FTA] 65.8% in Favor of Ratifying Korea-US FTA, 71.8% in Favor of Ratifying Korea-EU FTA

"The National Assembly should quickly ratify the Korea-US FTA": 65.8% in favor vs. 27.3% against, 6.3% don't know/no response

"The National Assembly should quickly ratify the Korea-EU FTA": 71.8% in favor vs. 21.3% against, 6.8% don't know/no response

- The survey results indicate that a majority of public opinion favors the ratification of the Korea-US FTA and Korea-EU FTA, which are currently contentious issues between the ruling and opposition parties. For the Korea-US FTA, 65.8% were in favor and 27.3% were against. For the Korea-EU FTA, 71.8% were in favor and 21.3% were against.

- Support for FTA ratification is led by the President's approval base and the Grand National Party's support base, with 87.4% and 84.5% in favor, respectively. Conversely, among those critical of the President's state administration, support for ratification was 59.6%, and among Democratic Party supporters, it was 62.2%, showing relatively lower support. However, a significant portion of respondents with opposition leanings also favored prompt ratification by the National Assembly.

[Free School Lunches] Universal Lunches 34.2% < Selective Lunches 55.2%

When asked about "free school lunches for elementary, middle, and high school students," 34.3% supported the "universal lunch theory" of providing lunches to all students regardless of income. 55.2% supported the "selective lunch theory" of providing lunches only to students from certain income brackets, and 9.7% believed that "free school lunches should not be provided." 0.7% did not know or refused to answer.

This reflects clear political divides. Among Democratic Party supporters, 50.4% advocated for the universal lunch theory, while 40.8% supported the selective lunch theory. Conversely, among Grand National Party supporters, 17.6% supported the universal lunch theory, 68.3% supported the selective lunch theory, and 13.4% believed free lunches should not be provided.

In Seoul, where Mayor Oh Se-hoon's petition for a referendum against free school lunches has garnered attention, 27.1% supported the universal lunch theory, 58.9% supported the selective lunch theory, and 13.5% favored discontinuing free lunches. If the current trend continues and the Seoul referendum is initiated, the Seoul proposal is likely to pass.

[Economic Expectations] "Will Soon Escape Economic Crisis" 58.1%

Outlook for household and national economies remains unchanged; no difference from December 2009 survey

Although the current perceived economy has worsened and pessimistic forecasts are prevalent for specific livelihood issues, cautious optimism is shown regarding the economic situation in 2011 and overcoming the economic crisis.

Regarding the economic crisis, only 10.4% responded that they are "currently overcoming the economic crisis," indicating a lack of confidence in having already overcome it. However, the largest group, 58.1%, expressed the expectation that "although we have not yet overcome the economic crisis, we will soon overcome it." The proportion of those with a pessimistic outlook, who believe "it will take a long time to overcome the economic crisis," was 29.8%, a significant minority.

For the outlook of the national and household economies in one year, the most common realistic assessment was that "it will not change much." However, optimistic forecasts of "it will improve" outnumbered pessimistic forecasts of "it will worsen." Compared to the December 2009 survey results, the expectation for actual economic recovery, whether for the national or household economy, has not significantly increased.

- For the national economy, 39.7% expected improvement, 45.3% expected little change, and 11.5% expected worsening. In the December 2009 survey, 40.5% expected improvement, 44.1% expected little change, and 12.0% expected worsening, indicating little significant improvement.

- For the household economy's one-year outlook, 31.9% expected improvement, 54.0% expected little change, and 12.6% expected worsening. In the December 2009 survey, 27.3% expected improvement, 55.7% expected little change, and 14.6% expected worsening, showing no significant difference from the current survey results.

2. Political/Social Trust and Fairness

The Lee Myung-bak administration, after experiencing significant political turmoil with the candlelight protests in its first year, has maintained high approval ratings in the 40%-50% range, higher than previous administrations, by proposing major national agendas each year. However, after dipping to the 10% range during the candlelight protests in 2008, approval ratings rose back to the 30% range in 2009 with the introduction of the "moderate pragmatism" line. In 2010, by proposing the "fair society" and pro-people policies, approval ratings stabilized in the 40%-50% range.

Ultimately, the core principle is that the government does not pursue policies biased towards specific classes or ideologically skewed, but rather represents the interests of the entire nation and implements fair social policies based on the rule of law. This is the essence of the moderate pragmatism line and the fair society initiative.

In a televised dialogue with the President on February 1, 2011, President Lee Myung-bak presented constitutional amendment and administrative district reorganization as key political reform tasks for the year. The public's evaluation and perception of these political agendas, which embody the core state philosophy of the Lee Myung-bak administration, are as follows:

[Fair Society] A Long Way to Go for a Fair/Trusting/Law-Abiding Society

In his August 15, 2010 Liberation Day address, President Lee Myung-bak presented "building a fair society" as the goal for the latter half of his administration, leading to a rebound in approval ratings and strengthening his control over state affairs. However, according to surveys conducted annually by the East Asia Institute from 2009 to 2010, it is difficult to confirm fundamental changes in the fair society and its underlying principles of the rule of law and government trust, which the administration has emphasized.

Regarding government trust, measured by the statement "The government works for the benefit of all citizens rather than for the interests of a few specific groups," 34.6% agreed, while 63.7% disagreed. Notably, there was no significant change in this perception before and after August 2010, when the fair society initiative was launched.

The perception that "We are disadvantaged by obeying the law" was agreed upon by 67.8%, indicating a weak institutional foundation for the rule of law and a fair society. In the October 2009 survey, 72.7% agreed with this perception, and in the October 2010 survey, 63.7% agreed.

Regarding fairness in social mobility, measured by the question "There are opportunities for upward social mobility in Korean society," the current survey shows a deterioration compared to October 2009. In October 2009, 41.7% responded positively. In the October 2010 survey, this figure dropped to 31.2%, and in the current February survey, it was only 33.4%.

The President emphasizes that the proactive role of social leaders is crucial for a fair society. Only 13.9% agreed with the statement "Korea's leaders serve as role models for society." In the October 2009 survey, this figure was 13.5%, and in the October 2010 survey, it was 17.1%, showing no significant change. As President Lee Myung-bak stated in his 59th radio address, the service and dedication of social leaders are essential for realizing a fair society, yet the public's view of social leaders is extremely cold.

Regarding the statement "Korean society is one where people can trust each other and live together," 52.3% agreed, approximately half. While this shows a slight improvement compared to 2009 and 2010, caution is needed in interpreting it as a significant improvement, considering the margin of error. Although this figure is relatively higher than the fairness and trust levels in government, elite circles, and social class structures, the fact that nearly half of the public believes it is difficult to live in a society with mutual trust highlights the ongoing need to strengthen social trust.

[Table 2] Evaluation of Fair Society/Trusting Society/Law-Abiding Society (%)

[Constitutional Amendment]

"Push for Constitutional Amendment within this year" 51.0% in favor, 38.9% against, 10.1% don't know/no response

"The 5-year single-term presidency should be changed" 38.3% in favor, 57.2% in favor of maintaining the current system

In this survey, 51.0% of respondents agreed with the statement, "We should pursue a constitutional amendment within this year," as advocated by the President and the administration, while 38.9% opposed it, indicating more support than opposition. However, 10.1% were undecided or refused to answer. Thus, public opinion is generally positive towards initiating discussions on constitutional amendment.

However, regarding the statement "The 5-year single-term presidency should be changed," which is the focus of discussion, 38.3% were in favor, while 57.2% favored maintaining the current system, indicating significant opposition to constitutional amendment aimed at restructuring the power system. While there is consensus on the need to review and reform the overall constitutional framework established in 1987, there is strong public resistance to discussions on constitutional amendment concerning the power structure, which involves conflicting political interests.

Given that discussions on constitutional amendment in political circles will inevitably lead to debates about restructuring the power system, if the amendment process proceeds with a focus on power restructuring without addressing livelihood issues, it may face public criticism even before becoming a prominent national agenda.

3. Security/Inter-Korean Relations

Security anxiety has somewhat weakened, from 81.5% (immediately after Yeonpyeong) to 68.2%

Security anxiety level during the Cheonan incident due to tensions in inter-Korean relations → Public opinion favors improving inter-Korean relations remains high

The decrease in the proportion of respondents who cited security/inter-Korean relations as the top priority national agenda compared to the December survey is somewhat predictable, as the shock from the Yeonpyeong shelling has subsided, somewhat weakening the perceived importance of these issues. However, given that inter-Korean relations and the security environment can deteriorate at any moment due to unforeseen events like the Cheonan incident or the Yeonpyeong shelling last year, it is possible that security and inter-Korean relations agendas could surge as core national priorities if tensions escalate. This is why preparations cannot be neglected. Therefore, in 2011, the government needs to prioritize the "economy" agenda while strengthening its preparedness for "security/North Korea" variables.

Above all, public anxiety about security remains high, requiring government management and response. [Figure 7] shows the changes in the proportion of respondents who expressed anxiety about the overall security situation. In the August 2009 survey, when inter-Korean relations, strained by North Korea's nuclear tests and missile launches, entered a thaw with Hyun Jeong-eun's visit to the North, the proportion expressing security anxiety fell to 24.5%. However, in 2010, after the Cheonan incident (March 24), it rose to 66.8% in the April survey and 75.4% immediately after the government announced the findings of the Cheonan incident investigation in May. By July, it had fallen to 59.4% during a period of relative calm, but following the Yeonpyeong shelling, it surged to 81.5% in the November survey. It slightly decreased to 75.4% in December and currently stands at 68.2%, similar to the level during the Cheonan incident.

Although the impact of the Yeonpyeong shelling has somewhat subsided, the lack of an environment to prevent such sudden incidents due to the tense relationship between the South and the North means that security anxiety is unlikely to dissipate easily.

[Figure 7] Changes in Security Anxiety (%)

Increased support for expanding/maintaining aid to North Korea, 65.7% in favor of inter-Korean summit

Aid to North Korea: "Reduce/Abolish" 31.6% (January) → 51.2% (May) → 56.9% (November) → 47.1% (December)

Following the Yeonpyeong shelling incident, voices calling for reduced aid to North Korea have grown louder. According to EAI surveys, in January 2010, 67.6% supported expanding or maintaining the current level of aid to North Korea, while only 31.6% advocated for reduction or cessation.

However, this trend reversed after the Cheonan incident. In the May survey, 41.8% supported expansion or maintenance, and in the survey immediately after the Yeonpyeong incident in November, this figure dropped to 40.5%, a significant decrease from January. Yet, as the strained inter-Korean relations and security anxieties have persisted, and the shock of the Yeonpyeong shelling has somewhat subsided, voices calling for improved inter-Korean relations are gradually rising. In the current survey, 50.3% supported expanding or maintaining aid to North Korea, exceeding a majority.

Conversely, the proportion advocating for reduction or abolition exceeded a majority in the May survey (51.2%) and the November survey (56.9%), but in the current survey, it dropped to 47.1%, a decrease of 9.8 percentage points from three months prior. This indicates that while a consensus emerged among the public for a more restrained approach towards North Korea after the Yeonpyeong shelling, signs of division are reappearing.

Reflecting this sentiment, when asked "What do you think about holding an inter-Korean summit at this time?", 65.7% of respondents answered in favor, while only 32.3% opposed. Support for holding an inter-Korean summit is higher among progressive respondents (73.5%) and moderate respondents (66.2%), and relatively lower among conservative respondents (59.7%), indicating a variation based on ideological orientation. However, overall, public opinion leans towards support.

[Figure 8] Attitude towards Aid to North Korea (%)

【Key Political Indicators】

[Presidential Approval Rating] February: 45.0%, a decrease of 4.9 percentage points from the previous month

The President's approval rating in February was 45.0%, a decrease of 4.9 percentage points from the previous month. The approval ratings, which had risen at the beginning of the year due to the rescue operation in the Gulf of Aden, have recently turned downward due to factors such as the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, the housing deposit crisis, inflation, and recent military corruption scandals.

[Figure 9] Changes in Presidential Approval Rating (%)

* The January survey was conducted by Hankook Research independently, not as part of the regular EAI·Hankook Research survey.

[Potential Presidential Candidates' Approval Ratings] Park Geun-hye 36.0%, Yoo Si-min 7.2%, Oh Se-hoon 5.7%

In the February potential presidential candidate approval ratings, former Representative Park Geun-hye rose by 4.1 percentage points from the previous month to 36.0%. Former Minister Yoo Si-min ranked second with 7.2%, followed by Mayor Oh Se-hoon and Governor Kim Moon-soo at 5.7% and 4.5% respectively. Among opposition candidates, the decline of Representative Sohn Hak-kyu is notable. His rating dropped by 3.2 percentage points from the previous month to 3.6%, falling behind former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook (4.4%), who is not actively pursuing a presidential bid.

Following them were former Representative Chung Mong-joon (3.0%), Representative Lee Hoi-chang (2.9%), former Minister Chung Dong-young (2.2%), Governor Kim Doo-kwan (1.1%), former Representative Chung Sye-kyun (0.7%), and Minister for Strategy and Finance Lee Jae-oh (0.3%).

[Table 3] Potential Presidential Candidates' Support Ratings (%)

* The May survey was not conducted due to the local elections and security perception survey.

** Minister for Strategy and Finance Lee Jae-oh was included in the survey from September onwards.

*** Governor Kim Doo-kwan of Gyeongnam Province was included in the survey from January 2011 onwards.

**** The January survey was conducted by Hankook Research independently, not as part of the regular EAI·Hankook Research survey.

[Party Support Ratings] Grand National Party enters 40% range for the second consecutive month, Democratic Party at 20.4%

The Democratic Party's shift to the left is causing a departure of centrist supporters.

The Grand National Party's support rating is 40.8%, and the Democratic Party's is 20.4%, widening the gap to 20 percentage points. Throughout 2010, the Grand National Party maintained a support rating in the mid-30% range, and the Democratic Party consistently maintained a support rating in the mid-20% range, resulting in a gap of around 10 percentage points. However, since the Democratic Party's national convention in 2010, which emphasized a welfare platform with a 'three-no' series, the gap in support ratings has been widening as the party has rapidly pursued a progressive stance and a shift to the left.

Support for the Grand National Party among centrists: 29.2% (November) → 33.5% (December) → 39.6% (January) → 37.4% (February)

Centrist support shrinks following the Democratic Party's shift to the left.

Indeed, examining party support patterns among centrists reveals that while they competed on equal footing with the Grand National Party in 2010, a trend of support shifting towards the Grand National Party has emerged among centrists following the Democratic Party's move to the left, and this trend is gradually widening.

Grand National Party support among centrists has been on an upward trend since November: 29.2% (November) → 33.5% (December) → 39.6% (January) → 37.4% (February). In contrast, the Democratic Party's support has stagnated at 29.0% → 28.5% → 29.3% and then dropped to approximately 21.7% among centrists in the February survey.

[Table 4] Changes in Party Support Ratings (March 2010 - February 2011) (%)

* Includes 'No party preference' and 'Don't know/No response'.

** From March to May 2010, the approval ratings for the new parties of Han Gak-gap (Peace Democratic Party) and Shim Dae-pyung (National Central Union) were included. They are listed under 'Others'.

*** Not surveyed in January 2011.

**** The January survey was conducted by Hankook Research independently, not as part of the regular EAI·Hankook Research survey.

[Figure 10] Changes in Party Support Ratings (June 2010 - February 2011) (%)

**** The January survey was conducted by Hankook Research independently, not as part of the regular EAI·Hankook Research survey.