[Public Opinion Brief No. 87] July 28 By-elections: Mid-term Assessment vs. Local Candidate Theory

EAI · 한국리서치 July Public Opinion Survey Joint Project

Security concerns persist; ROK-US military exercises gain support

July 28 By-elections: Mid-term Assessment Theory Falters; 51.2% Favor Electing a Local Candidate vs. 44.8% for Mid-term Assessment

In the April 29, 2009 by-elections, 42.6% favored electing a local candidate vs. 50.6% for mid-term assessment.

[Figure 1] Changes in Perception of By-election Nature: April 29, 2009 and July 28, 2010 By-elections (%)

Ahead of the July 28 by-elections, the first to be held since the Grand National Party's crushing defeat in the June 2 local elections, the opposition bloc seeks to maintain its political momentum through a mid-term assessment theory and candidate unification, following the June 2 local elections. The ruling party, conversely, is striving for a political turnaround by emphasizing the local candidate theory and the need to check the local governments.

In the five National Assembly by-elections held on April 29, 2009, in Bupyeong (Incheon), Buk-gu (Ulsan), two constituencies in Jeonju (North Jeolla Province), and Gyeongju (North Gyeongsang Province), the Democratic Party won three seats, the New Progressive Party won one, and an independent won one. In the National Assembly by-elections on October 28, the Democratic Party secured two seats in Gyeonggi Province and one in Jeungpyeong (North Chungcheong Province), while the Grand National Party won two seats in Gangneung (Gangwon Province) and Yangsan (South Gyeongsang Province). Notably, the victory in Yangsan was narrowly won by the then-ruling party's leader, Park Hee-tae, the current Speaker of the National Assembly, against Song In-bae, a relatively unknown young candidate from the Democratic Party, leading to a widespread assessment that it was a de facto defeat for the ruling party. Despite being by-elections, the results were widely interpreted as a mid-term assessment of the incumbent government. Indeed, in a joint survey conducted by the East Asia Institute (EAI) and Hankook Research on March 30, 2009, regarding the nature of the April by-elections, 50.6% of the 800 respondents nationwide answered that it was a mid-term assessment of the government, while 42.6% stated it was an election to choose a local representative, indicating a slight leaning towards the mid-term assessment theory.

In the current survey, conducted on July 24, four days before the July 28 by-elections, 51.2% of respondents considered it an election to choose a local candidate, exceeding half of the respondents. Meanwhile, 44.8% viewed it as a mid-term assessment of the incumbent government. The two positions are in a close contest. However, compared to the April 29 by-elections a year ago, the Grand National Party's emphasis on the local candidate theory has increased by 8.6 percentage points, while the mid-term assessment theory has decreased by 5.8 percentage points, indicating a shift in the balance of opinion in the opposite direction.

Mid-term assessment sentiment sharply declines among Grand National Party supporters and undecided voters

[Figure 2] Support for Mid-term Assessment Theory by Party Supporter (%)

Specifically, when examining the proportion of respondents agreeing with the mid-term assessment theory by party affiliation, 59.2% of Democratic Party supporters and 50.0% of undecided voters held this view during the April 29 by-elections. Notably, even among Grand National Party supporters, 42.6% agreed, indicating a broad base for the government-judging theory nationwide, despite it being a by-election. However, in the current survey, while the sentiment for government judgment remains strong among Democratic Party supporters at 60.1%, only 29.5% of Grand National Party supporters and 35.8% of undecided voters agree with this sentiment.

Compared to the previous period, Grand National Party supporters have remained stagnant, while Democratic Party supporters have increased, preventing a significant overall decline in the mid-term assessment sentiment. The fact that a higher proportion of undecided voters agree with the local candidate theory than the government judgment theory appears to be a disadvantage for the opposition bloc. However, these survey results only reflect the national sentiment and do not necessarily align with the sentiments in the specific regions where the by-elections are held. Given that by-elections are often decided by the votes of organized party supporters rather than undecided voters, the election outcomes are difficult to predict.

However, assuming the overall atmosphere applies to the region, the Grand National Party needs to focus on increasing the turnout of its supporters and undecided voters on election day, while the Democratic Party's victory will depend on its ability to mobilize its core supporters.

Easing of security concerns after the Cheonan sinking

59.6% still "concerned"

[Figure 1] Changes in perceived security: Percentage responding "concerned" (March 2009 - July 2010, in %)

Following the announcement by the joint civilian-military investigation committee on May 20th that the sinking of the Cheonan was "the work of North Korea," and the President's address at the War Memorial of Korea, the government's hardline stance towards North Korea intensified. North Korea's strong reactions and retaliations led to a continuous rise in public anxiety regarding national security. In early 2009, after North Korea's long-range rocket launch (April 5th) and second nuclear test (May 25th), a survey in August 2009 showed that the percentage of respondents feeling insecure about national security had dropped to 24.9%, following Hyun Jeong-eun's visit to North Korea and the release of two detained American journalists. In the April 2010 survey, conducted one month after the Cheonan incident, the proportion of respondents feeling insecure about national security reached 66.8%, the highest level recorded since the 2000s. In the May survey, conducted amidst tense inter-Korean confrontation immediately after the government's announcement on May 20th, a staggering 75.4% of the public reported feeling insecure about national security.

However, the regular survey in July 2010 showed a slight easing of this security anxiety, with the figure dropping to 59.6%. This can be interpreted as a partial mitigation of public concern over inter-Korean conflict, as the Cheonan incident shifted from an inter-Korean dispute to an issue on the international stage, including the UN Security Council and the ARF. Nevertheless, with the percentage of those feeling insecure about national security still significantly above half, and reaching levels comparable to the heightened anxiety following North Korea's nuclear test in the 2009 survey (59.2%), the survey results cannot be considered low in an absolute sense.

Security anxiety strengthens support for ROK-US combined exercises and the ROK-US alliance

61.6% positively evaluate large-scale ROK-US combined exercises, citing warning to North Korea and deterrence effect against North Korean threats

High anxiety about national security is translating into positive public opinion towards the ROK-US alliance and the ongoing combined exercises, which even involve aircraft carriers.

[Figure 2] Attitude towards large-scale ROK-US combined exercises (in %)

Firstly, amidst growing public attention to the large-scale combined exercises conducted by the ROK and the US in the East Sea from May 25th to 28th, as a warning to North Korea and a display of deterrence, a majority of the public sympathizes with the purpose of the exercises. Those who responded positively, stating that it strengthens the warning to North Korea and deterrence, accounted for 61.6%, while negative opinions, citing potential provocation to inter-Korean relations and China, were only 34.7%. Notably, among the ideologically conservative respondents, positive opinions were very high at 74.9%, and even among centrist respondents, 61.1% held a positive view. However, among the ideologically progressive respondents, positive opinions were relatively low at 42.6%, with negative perceptions exceeding half at 55.9%, showing a different perspective from conservative and centrist respondents.

Desirable ROK-US relations: Strengthening ROK-US alliance 43.2%, Maintaining status quo 30.4%, Independent diplomacy away from the US 23.7%

Comparing the current survey results with those from the January survey, a period of relatively lower security anxiety, it is evident that as security concerns have increased, expectations for the ROK-US alliance have grown, while support for independent diplomacy has decreased.

Even in the January survey, while strengthening the alliance was a majority opinion, it only accounted for 34.7%. Another 33.6% preferred policies that were moderate or aimed at maintaining the status quo. Support for independent diplomacy away from the US in the January survey was 30.8%, showing a similar distribution to those who favored strengthening the ROK-US alliance or maintaining the status quo. However, the results of the July survey present a stark contrast. The proportion advocating for strengthening the ROK-US alliance (43.2%) surpasses that of maintaining the status quo (30.4%) or pursuing independent diplomacy away from the US (23.7%).

[Figure 3] Desired ROK-US relations direction response rate (January 2010 - July 2010, in %)

MB approval rating stabilized after sharp decline in June, Democratic Party support rises

MB approval rating change: May Cheonan announcement 52.0% → June local election defeat 43.0% → July 44.3%

Centrist support increases; stabilizes despite civilian surveillance and pro-Lee faction conflict

[Figure 1] Presidential approval rating changes (%)

The President's approval rating, which had sharply declined after the June 2nd local elections, has stabilized. Following the May 25th address on the Cheonan incident, the President enjoyed a significant boost, reaching 52.0% just before the elections, marking the first time it surpassed 50% since the regular survey began in February 2009. However, after the Grand National Party's significant defeat in the June 2nd local elections, President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating dropped by 9.0 percentage points to 43.0% in the June 26th survey. In the current survey, it stands at 44.3%, indicating a halt to the downward trend.

The June survey revealed a severe erosion of support among centrist and progressive voters, despite strong mobilization among conservatives during the local elections. This pattern largely persisted in the July survey. However, it is noteworthy that support among centrist voters increased by 4.5 percentage points to 42.3%, compared to 37.8% in the June survey, thereby underpinning the stable approval rating.

Particularly noteworthy in this survey is the stabilization of the approval rating despite significant negative factors, such as internal conflict within the pro-Lee faction over the civilian surveillance scandal and the controversy surrounding Assemblyman Kang Yong-seok's remarks. While further empirical verification is needed, it appears that the security drive, including the large-scale ROK-US combined exercises conducted from July 26th to 28th following the Cheonan incident, continues to consolidate support among conservatives. Regarding the increase in support among centrist voters, it is worth closely observing whether the government's post-June 2nd local election efforts to focus on the public, communication, and future preparedness, such as addressing high-interest loan sharks from capital companies, have resonated with the public and contributed to the rise in approval ratings.

[Figure 2] Presidential approval rating changes by ideological orientation (%)

Grand National Party 34.4% vs. Democratic Party support 30.7%; 40s continue to shift back

Closest since the period surrounding former President Roh Moo-hyun's death in 2009

[Figure 3] Changes in support for the two major parties and undecided voters: January - July (%)

Although the Democratic Party's upward trend has slightly slowed following the recent local elections, it recorded 30.7% in this survey, a 3.6 percentage point increase from 27.1% last month, marking the first time it has entered the 30% range since the current administration took office. In contrast, the Grand National Party's support rose by only 0.6 percentage points from 33.8% in the previous survey to 34.4%. This is the closest the two parties have been since the EAI survey on June 5, 2009 (Grand National Party 22.7%, Democratic Party 22.3%), which occurred shortly after the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun. However, while the narrowing gap in party support at that time was due to a decline in the Grand National Party's support, the current close race is largely attributed to the rise in the Democratic Party's support.

In the July survey, as in the June survey, the Democratic Party maintained its lead among the 20s, 30s, and also the 40s, who are key demographics for the party. Among the 20s, the Grand National Party's support was 16.3% and the Democratic Party's was 47.3%, with a widening gap. Among the 30s, the Grand National Party garnered 22.2% and the Democratic Party 32.8%. In the 40s, the Grand National Party had 27.6% and the Democratic Party 32.8%. The Grand National Party received strong support from those aged 50 and above (56.0%), while the Democratic Party received only 18.9%. In the previous month's survey, the 40s demographic also showed the Democratic Party overtaking the Grand National Party, with 31.4% support compared to 27.8%.

[Table 1] Changes in party support by age group (%)

[Table 2] Changes in party support (January - July 2010) (%)

* First asked in the December 2009 survey

** Sum of "No party affiliation" and "Don't know/No response"

*** The January 14 survey was a joint political issues survey by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper (1,002 respondents), not a regular survey.

**** Pro-Park Geun-hye Alliance was renamed Future Hope Alliance in February 2010. On April 2nd, the Future Hope Alliance merged with the Grand National Party. Defecting members formed the Future Alliance on April 18th (Lee Gyu-taek).

***** In the March-May 2010 surveys, the parties of Cho Soon-hyung (Peace Democratic Party) and Sim Dae-pyung (People's Unity Party) were included in the options and categorized under "Other".

Next presidential election, Park Geun-hye 24.5% > Yoo Si-min 10.2% > Han Myeong-sook 9.1%

[Table 3] Support for next presidential candidates (%)

* The May survey was not conducted as it was combined with surveys on local elections and security perceptions.

In the July survey for next presidential candidate support, former representative Park Geun-hye received the most support at 24.5%, with little change from the previous month (25.0%). Following her were former minister Yoo Si-min (10.2%) and former prime minister Han Myeong-sook (9.1%), who is reportedly facing renewed prosecution investigations. Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who ranked second in the June survey with 11.2% support, and Governor Kim Moon-soo, who ranked fifth with 7.4% support, showed a slight decline in the July survey, with 8.5% and 5.3% respectively.

For former representative Park Geun-hye, she ranked first among those in their 40s and 50s and above, with 25.4% and 32.3% support respectively. Among the 20s, she ranked second with 18.4% support, and among the 30s, with 16.0% support, trailing behind former minister Yoo Si-min. Former minister Yoo Si-min led former representative Park Geun-hye among the 20s (18.8%) and 30s (21.9%), but fell behind in the 40s (6.4%) and 50s and above (0.8%), indicating the formation of a strong rejection group among middle-aged and older demographics. In these age groups, he ranked lower than former representative Park Geun-hye, former prime minister Han Myeong-sook, and even candidates Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo.

By party support, former representative Park Geun-hye was first among Grand National Party supporters and undecided voters, with 32.3% and 21.5% support respectively. Among Grand National Party supporters, Mayor Oh Se-hoon ranked second with 18.4% and Governor Kim Moon-soo third with 10.3%. It is particularly noteworthy to examine the preferences of supporters of the main opposition Democratic Party, where former prime minister Han Myeong-sook garnered 21.0% support, ranking first. Former representative Park Geun-hye followed with 17.2% support, ranking second, and former minister Yoo Si-min ranked third with 13.6%. Absorbing the support of Democratic Party voters remains the biggest challenge for former minister Yoo Si-min. Among undecided voters, former minister Yoo Si-min ranked second with 7.3% support, followed by Mayor Oh Se-hoon in third place with 6.1%, and former prime minister Han Myeong-sook in fourth place with 4.9%. ■