[Public Opinion Briefing 83-1] EAI Expert Opinion Brief: Significance and Tasks of the June 2 Local Election Results

[Public Opinion Briefing 83] EAI · JoongAng Ilbo · SBS · Korea Research 2010 Local Election Panel Survey

June 2 Local Election Results and Future National Governance Direction

1. EAI Expert Opinion Brief: Significance and Tasks of the June 2 Local Election Results

2. Preliminary Analysis of the 2nd 5-Region/3rd National Panel Survey

A Shift from Authoritative to Harmonious Leadership is Needed

Joo Hyung Lee (EAI Civic Politics Panel Chair, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Soongsil University)

This election saw a confrontation between the judgment of the Lee Myung-bak administration and the judgment of the Roh Moo-hyun administration. However, the panel survey results indicated that more voters sympathized with the judgment of the Lee Myung-bak administration. A total of 65.6% agreed with this assertion, while 33.5% disagreed. The ratio of those who agreed with the judgment of the Lee Myung-bak administration was 2:1. When asked for the reasons behind their agreement with the MB administration's judgment, a majority of 74.5% responded that it was due to the administration unilaterally pushing policies against public opinion, such as the Sejong City or the Four Major Rivers Project.

Furthermore, when asked about the reasons for problems in President Lee Myung-bak's and the administration's state governance, 67.9% of respondents cited the 'method of pursuing tasks,' while only 23.8% cited the 'content and direction of policies.' The panel survey results suggest that the ruling party's defeat in this local election is closely related to President Lee Myung-bak's bulldozer-like, unilateral leadership style.

Indeed, 67.9% of respondents desired a harmonious leadership style that ensures stability, while only 14.2% expected a presidential image of strong national governance, and 11.7% desired a meticulous, practical CEO-type president. This indicates that the public desires a president with communicative political skills, leadership based on persuasion and compromise, rather than strong driving force.

[Figure 1] Agreement with Judgment Theory and Desired Leadership Style for the President (%) (National Survey of 904 Respondents)

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Grand National Party's Defeat, Democratic Party's Victory?

Lim Sung-hak (EAI Election Panel Research Team, University of Seoul)

The survey on the causes of the ruling party's defeat in the local elections revealed that MB's state governance was the biggest problem. More than half (50.8%) of the respondents answered that it was because President Lee Myung-bak or the government performed poorly, and 28.4% responded that it was the Grand National Party's fault, indicating that more than two-thirds of respondents held dissatisfaction with the ruling camp. For the latter half of President Lee Myung-bak's term, a comprehensive reflection by the ruling camp and policies to regain public trust are urgently needed.

Can the victory of the Democratic Party and the pan-opposition bloc in the local elections be evaluated as the opposition's comparative advantage over the ruling camp? Only 11.2% responded that it was because the opposition parties performed well or their candidates were superior. Therefore, this opposition victory can only be seen as a backlash against the ruling camp's failures. Consequently, for the upcoming general elections and presidential election, the Democratic Party must discover strong and innovative leaders and gain the public's validation of their capabilities by presenting constructive policy alternatives.

[Figure 2] Reasons for the Grand National Party's Defeat and the Democratic Party's Victory in the Local Elections (National Survey of 904 Respondents)

[Figure 3] Reasons for Agreement with the "Judgment Theory" (National Survey of 593 Respondents Who Agreed with the Judgment Theory)

Policy Direction After the Local Elections

Seo Hyun-jin (EAI Election Research Team, Sungshin Women's University)

Following the local elections, attention has naturally shifted to whether changes are needed in the government's future policy direction and leadership. The national panel survey results, comparing the periods before and after the elections, show a shift in public sentiment regarding the government's most important policies: Sejong City and the Four Major Rivers Project. In the first survey regarding the Sejong City issue, the proportion of respondents who agreed with the revised plan, the Education, Science, and Technology-centric Economic City, was highest at 42.6%. However, in the second survey, this figure decreased to 36.5%, becoming similar to the proportion who agreed with the original plan, the Administrative Capital City (37.7%).

Regarding the Four Major Rivers Project, the response 'should proceed as planned' decreased by 5 percentage points, while the response 'should reduce the scale or postpone the timing' increased by 5.6 percentage points. Notably, among Grand National Party supporters, the proportion who responded that the scale should be reduced increased by 12.3 percentage points, from 29.8% in the first survey to 41.1% in the second. Among respondents aged 60 and above, the increase was also significant, from 27.6% in the first survey to 40.6% in the second, a 13% percentage point rise, indicating a particularly noticeable shift in the stance of conservative segments.

Overall, there is a trend of decreasing agreement with the government's revised plan for Sejong City and an increasing public opinion that modifications are needed for the Four Major Rivers Project, such as reducing its scale or postponing its timing. This, coupled with the Grand National Party's defeat in the local elections, suggests that it will be difficult for the government to continue its major policies as planned.

[Figure 4] Public Opinion on the Sejong City Project and the Four Major Rivers Project

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Furthermore, young voters in their 20s, who are presumed to have had the most significant influence on the election results, showed substantial differences in their stances on various policy issues compared to voters in their 60s and above. Regarding the revised Sejong City plan, which the government has actively promoted, there was a 25.4 percentage point difference in agreement rates between respondents aged 19-29 (27%) and those aged 60 and above (52.4%). The difference in opposition rates to the Four Major Rivers Project was even larger (43.6%), with only 16.5% of respondents in their 60s opposing it, while 60.1% of respondents aged 19-29 opposed it.

Regarding the direction of North Korea policy, the response that policy should be pursued in a direction that strengthens reconciliation and cooperation between South and North Korea was 53.5% among those aged 60 and above, and 71.8% among those aged 19-29, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. On the stance towards political order and freedom, 86.5% of respondents in their 20s answered, 'The government should strive for the people's freedom rather than political order,' while only 40% of those aged 60 and above responded similarly. The intergenerational difference on this response was a significant 46.5 percentage points.

Therefore, the success of future political operations will depend on how well the government and the ruling party read and sensitively respond to these shifts in public sentiment and intergenerational differences in stances when pursuing major policies. Additionally, as indicated by the survey results showing 67.9% of respondents desiring a harmonious leadership style from the president, the extent to which the president exercises harmonious leadership will also be a crucial factor in political stability and social integration.

[Figure 5] Intergenerational Perception Gaps on Key Issues