[Public Opinion Brief No. 82] Public Opinion Changes Since the Cheonan Announcement

EAI · JoongAng Sunday · Korea Research May Public Opinion Survey

Security Perception / Presidential Approval Rating / Government Response Evaluation

1. The gravest security crisis since 2000, widespread security anxiety

Security anxiety at its peak since 2000 immediately after the Cheonan announcement: "Korea's security is unstable"

April 24 Survey 66.8% -> May 29 Survey 75.4% Record-high security anxiety

[Figure 1] Changes in Security Perception: Korean Security is Unstable (%)

* : Data from 2000-2004 from the National Defense University's Security Awareness Survey, 2006-2009 from EAI's Security Perception Survey, 2010 from EAI and HRC's Public Opinion Barometer Survey

** Combined percentage of responses for "Very unstable" and "Somewhat unstable" out of "Very unstable," "Somewhat unstable," "Neutral," "Somewhat stable," and "Very stable"

In the security awareness survey conducted nearly a month after the sinking of the Cheonan (March 26), South Korean citizens felt a high level of security anxiety. When asked on a 5-point scale from "Very unstable" to "Very stable" about the overall security situation in Korea, seven out of ten Koreans (66.8%) responded that it was unstable ("Very unstable" 16.5%, "Somewhat unstable" 50.2%). However, in this survey conducted on May 29, after the announcement of the Cheonan incident (May 20), the proportion of those who felt it was unstable surged to 75.4% ("Very unstable" 25.1%, "Somewhat unstable" 50.2%).

This is the highest figure since 2000, based on comparisons with results from similar surveys conducted by the National Defense University, EAI, and others since 2000. In the 2000 survey, immediately after the first inter-Korean summit, the response for "unstable" was only 18.9%. However, due to the North Korean nuclear issue following the emergence of the Bush administration, anxiety rose to 54.8% in January 2003, triggered by North Korea's withdrawal from the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty). Security anxiety, which had eased to 43.0% in 2004 after two rounds of Six-Party Talks, rose to 63.8% due to the shock of North Korea's nuclear test in 2006, but then dropped to 31.9% following the second inter-Korean summit in 2007.

Following the emergence of the Lee Myung-bak administration, security anxiety saw a slight increase amidst cooled inter-Korean relations, rising to a level where a majority of citizens (48.4%) felt anxious after North Korea's second nuclear test in April 2009. The current survey indicates that a significant 75.4% feel anxious about Korea's security, surpassing the level of anxiety during the first North Korean nuclear test in 2006. Considering the high probability of North Korean involvement and the subjective sense of security felt by the public, it is not an exaggeration to define the current situation as a security crisis.

2. Presidential Approval Rating at 52.0% - "Security Rally Effect"

In the survey conducted on May 29, after the joint civilian-government investigation team announced the Cheonan incident on May 20, the presidential approval rating rose to 52.0%. This is the first time the approval rating has surpassed 50% in the regular Public Opinion Barometer surveys conducted since February 2009 by EAI and Korea Research. In the EAI and Korea Research regular public opinion barometer surveys for February-March, the presidential approval rating was on the verge of breaking the 50% mark but faltered for two consecutive months. In the survey on April 24, it dropped to 46.3% due to the aftermath of the not-guilty verdict for former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook. For reference, in the first national panel survey for the June 2 local elections, conducted in early May by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research among 1,200 national panelists, the approval rating was slightly higher at 47.8%.

As of the April survey, public attention was intensely focused on understanding the cause of the Cheonan incident and the search for missing persons following its occurrence on March 26. Domestically, politically, a not-guilty verdict was issued on April 9 for former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook on bribery charges, and the recent sex scandal involving prosecutors has caused significant controversy, presenting numerous adverse factors for the ruling party. The presidential approval rating decreased by 2.8 percentage points from the March 27 survey to 46.3%. Considering the margin of statistical error, this cannot be considered a significant change. Generally, the phenomenon of presidential approval ratings increasing during severe national crises from external sources, known as the "rally around the flag effect," and political adverse factors appear to have offset each other, resulting in no major change in the presidential approval rating.

Conservative Consolidation Drives Approval Rating Increase

However, with the joint civilian-government investigation team's official announcement on May 20 that the Cheonan incident was caused by a North Korean torpedo attack, and the subsequent escalation of North Korea's strong backlash and threats, the security rally effect appears to have strengthened. The approval rating among the Grand National Party's support base (those aged 50 and above, with a high school education or less, and conservatives) soared to a high of 66-72%. Conversely, the approval rating among the Democratic Party's support base (those aged 20-30, with a university degree or higher, and progressives) remained at around 36-40%. By age group, it was 46.9% for those in their 40s and 49.1% for those in the centrist group, falling short of a majority. The current increase in approval ratings is interpreted as being driven by the consolidation of support among conservatives. [Refer to the appendix cross-tabulation table in this briefing].

3. Evaluation of the Government's Response to the Cheonan Incident

Six out of ten people positively evaluated the government's response to the Cheonan incident after the announcement

1) Initial Public Opinion: Survey conducted May 4-6. 1st National Panel Survey of 1,200 respondents nationwide

Cheonan: "Government is responding well" 41.2%, "Responding poorly" 47.5%

Reasons for poor response: "Excessively blaming North Korea" 56.6% vs. "Being too hesitant" 39.9%

No impact on party support 65.4%, gains and losses for ruling and opposition parties offset

In the first national panel survey conducted from May 4-6, the proportion of respondents who felt the Lee Myung-bak administration's response to the Cheonan incident was poor (47.5%) was slightly higher than those who felt it was good (41.2%). Among the 570 respondents who felt the response was poor, when asked for specific reasons, 39.9% cited that the government was not taking firm action against North Korea and was being too hesitant, while 56.6% stated that the blame was being placed on North Korea before the facts were established. This appears to be a result of public distrust surrounding the Cheonan incident and anxiety over the rapid shift from an initial cautious stance to attributing blame to North Korea.

Examining the impact of the Cheonan incident on actual voting preferences, 65.4% of respondents indicated no significant change in their support for either the ruling or opposition parties. However, 13.7% responded that they would support the ruling party more, and 10.2% indicated they would support the opposition party more, suggesting a slight advantage for the ruling party's consolidation. The number of individuals switching their support from the opposition to the ruling party was 4.3%, while those switching from the ruling to the opposition party was 4.8%, indicating no significant difference. Among supporters of the Grand National Party, 32.2% stated they would strengthen their support for the ruling party, and 6.2% had switched from supporting the opposition to the ruling party. Among supporters of the Democratic Party, 27.2% stated they would strengthen their support for the opposition party, and 11.5% had newly decided to support the opposition party. An analysis of vote shifts due to the Cheonan incident suggests that it led to a reinforcing effect on existing support bases rather than causing new shifts in support, unlike in the past. (From EAI Public Opinion Brief No. 79: June 2 Local Elections, Will the Government Judgment Argument Prevail?)

[Figure 2] Evaluation of Government Response to the Cheonan Sinking Incident (1st National Panel Survey, May 4-6, 1,200 respondents)

[Figure 3] Impact of the Cheonan Sinking Incident on Party Support (1st National Panel Survey, May 4-6, 1,200 respondents)

2) Regular Survey on May 29 (800 respondents nationwide): 57.2% "Government is responding well," 37.2% "Responding poorly"

Six out of ten respondents believe the government is responding well; significant differences in views based on political orientation

However, in the regular survey conducted after the Cheonan announcement on May 20, the proportion of respondents who felt the government's response to the Cheonan incident was good was 57.2% ("Very good response" 18.1%, "Somewhat good response" 39.1%), with six out of ten people evaluating it positively. Those who felt the response was poor accounted for 37.2% ("Somewhat poor response" 21.4%, "Very poor response" 15.8%), and 5.6% were undecided or did not respond.

By age group, the proportion was 36.8% for those in their 20s and 49.8% for those in their 30s, falling short of a majority. For those in their 40s, it was 54.7%, and for those aged 50 and above, a significant 74.4% positively evaluated the government's response. In terms of self-identified ideology, 45.5% of progressives, 53.7% of centrists, and 72.9% of conservatives responded positively, indicating a polarization in perspectives on the government's response. By education level, 47.6% of those with a university degree or higher, 63.7% of high school graduates, and 78.0% of those with a middle school education or less responded positively. Positive evaluations were higher among groups that tend to support the Grand National Party, and lower among groups that tend to support the Democratic Party.

[Figure 4] Evaluation of Government Response to the Cheonan Sinking Incident (May 29 Regular Public Opinion Barometer, 800 respondents)

[Figure 5] Evaluation of Government Response to the Cheonan Sinking Incident by Demographic Group (May 29 Regular Public Opinion Barometer, 800 respondents)