[Public Opinion Briefing 81-2] Preliminary Analysis of the 2nd 5-Region Panel Survey

[Public Opinion Briefing 81] EAI · JoongAng Ilbo · SBS · Korea Research 2010 Local Election Panel Survey

2nd Survey of the 5-Region Local Election Panel

1. Changes in Public Opinion in 5 Regions for the June 2 Local Elections and Their Causes

2. Preliminary Analysis of the 2nd 5-Region Panel Survey

1. Changes in Approval Ratings Over Two Weeks

In the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo maintained their leads, while in Chungnam and Gyeongnam, Ahn Hee-jung and Kim Doo-kwan were in a close race within the margin of error against Park Sang-don and Lee Dal-gon, respectively.

[Figure 1] Changes in Approval Ratings

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2. Vote Switching: Three out of ten voters have newly decided on or changed their preferred candidate.

Vote Switching Between the 1st and 2nd Surveys

An average of 28.6% of voters in the five surveyed regions changed their preferred candidate during the campaign period. Seoul showed the least vote switching, with only 19.3% of voters newly choosing a candidate or switching from undecided, while Gyeonggi Province had the highest fluidity, with 33.9% of voters deciding on or changing their candidate. This was attributed to significant vote switching among supporters of candidate Kim Jin-pyo following the candidate consolidation after the first survey. In Jeonbuk and Chungnam, a higher proportion of undecided voters decided on a candidate as the election approached. In the two-way races in Seoul and Gyeongnam, vote switching was minimal, with a high rate of maintaining previous choices.

[Figure 2] Percentage of voters who newly decided on or changed their preferred candidate between the 1st and 2nd surveys over two weeks

Seoul

Specifically, in Seoul, a remarkable 89.7% of Oh Se-hoon's supporters from the first survey maintained their support in the second, and 83.6% of Han Myeong-sook's supporters also maintained their support. Among undecided voters, Oh Se-hoon and Han Myeong-sook gained 23.3% and 20.6% respectively, slightly widening the overall gap between the candidates.

Gyeonggi

In Gyeonggi Province, Kim Moon-soo maintained an 88.2% support rate. Of those who supported Yoo Seong-min before the consolidation, 92.0% continued their support. After the candidate consolidation, 64.6% of Kim Jin-pyo's supporters switched to Yoo Seong-min, leading to an overall increase in Yoo Seong-min's approval rating. However, as Yoo Seong-min's camp currently claims, if the support of Kim Jin-pyo and the Democratic Party is not fully absorbed, there appears to be room for further increase in approval ratings. Among undecided voters, 23.6% turned to Kim Moon-soo and 38.5% to Yoo Seong-min, indicating a significant effect of candidate consolidation in Gyeonggi Province.

Chungnam

In Chungnam, Ahn Hee-jung's supporters showed the highest cohesion, with 83.9% expressing continued support in the second survey. Park Hae-chun's supporters maintained their support at 70.8%, and Park Sang-don's supporters at 71.5%. Among undecided voters, 32.9% shifted to Ahn Hee-jung and 20.3% to Park Sang-don, indicating Ahn's upward trend. However, 40.5% of undecided voters remained undecided, classifying Chungnam as a region with significant remaining fluidity.

Gyeongnam

In Gyeongnam, Kim Doo-kwan's supporters also showed stronger cohesion than Lee Dal-gon's. While 84.2% of Lee Dal-gon's supporters maintained their support in the second survey, 90.6% of Kim Doo-kwan's supporters continued to back him, demonstrating high supporter cohesion. Among the 187 undecided voters in the first survey, 18.1% moved to Lee Dal-gon and 23.1% to Kim Doo-kwan, indicating that the race remains extremely close.

3. Profit and Loss Calculation of the Cheonan Incident and the "Roh Wave"

1) Rally around the flag effect

Presidential approval ratings increase, consensus on bipartisan cooperation grows, promoting stability over containment

Stability-oriented sentiment increased in all regions except Chungnam

[Figure 3] Rally around the flag effect between the 1st and 2nd surveys over two weeks

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2) Why didn't the "Roh Wave" materialize?

Favorable views of former President Roh are not considered a decisive factor in voting decisions.

Half of the public agrees with the idea of inheriting former President Roh's political philosophy; only 36% consider the issue of Roh's passing when deciding their vote.

The proportion of respondents who agreed with the need to inherit former President Roh's political philosophy was relatively high in Jeonbuk and Chungnam, and lowest in Seoul at 44.4%. While 54.1% of respondents indicated they would consider the Cheonan incident when voting, only 35.9% stated they would use the first anniversary of Roh's passing as a basis for their voting decision.

[Figure 4] Agreement with Inheriting Former President Roh's Political Philosophy (%)

[Figure 5] Considerations for Voting: Cheonan Incident and Roh's Passing (%)

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Vote Conversion Rate Between Stability and Containment Sentiments

Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo lead in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Kim Wan-ju leads in Jeonbuk

Gyeongnam and Chungnam are neck-and-neck, but Park Sang-don's candidacy has a vote-splitting effect.

In the Seoul Metropolitan Area, 91.3% of those favoring stability supported Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo, while only 68.0% of those favoring containment in Seoul and 70.7% in Gyeonggi supported Yoo Seong-min. In contrast, in the Chungcheong region, due to Park Sang-don's vote-splitting effect, only 46.7% of those favoring stability and 49.7% of those favoring containment supported Park Hae-cheon and Ahn Hee-jung, respectively. In Gyeongnam, 68.3% of those favoring stability supported Lee Dal-gon, while 63.9% of those favoring containment supported Kim Doo-kwan, indicating a close contest.

[Table 1] Support by Stance on Stability/Containment (%)

Candidate Factors: Evaluation of Incumbent Governors' Performance and Image in Local Elections

Particularly in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Oh Se-hoon and Kim Moon-soo, and in Jeonbuk, Kim Wan-ju, led not only in the evaluation of their administrative capabilities but also in all other areas compared to their opponents. In Chungcheong and Gyeongnam, Ahn Hee-jung and Kim Doo-kwan received positive evaluations for their personal image, excluding administrative capabilities.

[Table 2] Candidate Image Evaluation Scores (%)

[Table 3] Candidate Image Scores

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4. Remaining Variables: What Are They?

1) Will voters bandwagon? Or support the underdog?

Bandwagoning with the leading candidate

Will undecided voters choose to bandwagon with the leading candidate or sympathize with and support the lagging candidate? Given the high cohesion among current supporters, a significant portion responded that they would vote without considering electability. Among voters, the sentiment of bandwagoning with the candidate with higher electability was relatively more prevalent than supporting the underdog.

[Figure 6] Consideration of Electability (%)

In most regions, the leading candidate's electability is perceived as high

Only in Gyeongnam is there a perception that candidate Lee is advantageous; Kim Du-kwan's electability rose from 7.8% to 18.9%

A close race is anticipated, reaching 45.7%

Therefore, perception of the current race is important. In most cases, the electability of candidates currently leading in opinion polls is viewed favorably. However, in Gyeongnam, although candidate Kim Du-kwan is in a close race within the margin of error with candidate Lee Dal-gon, the dominant perception is that Lee is leading in the race, which appears disadvantageous for Kim. Consequently, the bandwagon effect with candidates of higher electability is expected to favor the Grand National Party candidates in the Seoul Metropolitan Area and Gyeongnam. In Chungcheong, candidate Ahn Hee-jung can be considered to be in an advantageous position.

[Figure 7] Current Race Perception

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2) Variable 2: Potential for Shifting Support and Undecided Voters: Chungnam/Gyeongnam Remain Uncertain

One in five undecided, unwilling to change: Average 75.6% in five regions say "yes", 19.3% say "no"

Supporters of leading candidates are highly likely to stick with their choice ('80-90% will not change')

[Figure 8] Supporter Cohesion

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3) Overreach invites backlash: Strong consensus on critical views regarding the 'Cheonan incident security vacuum' and 'dismissal of Korean Teachers and Education Workers Union members'

While the responsibility of North Korea and the international community's response to the Cheonan incident are at the forefront, if the issue shifts to the government's responsibility for security lapses, public opinion could turn unfavorable for the President and the ruling party. The demand for the President's apology and accountability in most regions could benefit the opposition parties. However, the remaining election campaign period is very short, and with high-level visits from the US and China, the issue of international cooperation on North Korea is likely to dominate, making such a shift in focus difficult.

Another variable is the potential for backlash if the ruling party takes actions that excessively provoke the opposition and progressive camp, such as the recent dismissal of Korean Teachers and Education Workers Union (KTU) members. Public opinion in all regions, including the Seoul Metropolitan Area, strongly disapproves of the dismissal of 134 KTU members who joined the Democratic Labor Party, deeming it undesirable. Had the dismissals been pushed through before the election without measures such as postponing them to July, there was a high probability of significant backlash.

[Figure 9] Attitudes Towards Cheonan Incident Responsibility and KTU Dismissals

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