Public Opinion Briefing 80-2: Detailed Analysis of the 1st 5-Region Panel Survey

Public Opinion Briefing 80: EAI · JoongAng Ilbo · SBS · Korea Research 2010 Local Election Panel Survey

1st Survey of the 5-Region Panel Survey for the June 2nd Local Elections

1. Key Issue in the June 2nd Local Elections: Analysis of the 'Roh Effect'

2. Preliminary Analysis of the 1st 5-Region Panel Survey

1. Comparison of Voting Preferences in 5 Regions

High interest in metropolitan mayoral elections in battleground areas; high interest in local district mayoral elections

Lower interest in local council and superintendent of education elections

With all candidates confirmed for the June 2nd local elections, interest in the elections is rising. This survey indicates relatively high interest in metropolitan mayoral elections in areas where fierce competition is anticipated. The Seoul mayoral election, a key battleground where Grand National Party candidate Oh Se-hoon faces Democratic Party candidate Han Myeong-sook, shows an interest level of 79.3%, exceeding the average interest level of 69.2% across the five surveyed regions by more than 10%. Following Seoul, the election in Gyeongnam Province, which has garnered attention due to the contest between Lee Dal-gon of the Grand National Party, a former Minister of Government Administration and Home Affairs under the current administration, and independent candidate Kim Du-gwan, a member of the pro-Roh faction, also showed a high interest level of 71.1% compared to other regions. Conversely, local district mayoral elections in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province are receiving relatively little attention from voters. However, local district mayoral elections in Chungnam, Jeonbuk, and Gyeongnam Provinces are receiving greater attention than the aforementioned two regions.

[Figure 1] Election Interest Levels

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Analysis of Candidate Support Rates in 5 Regions

Panel surveys are advantageous for precisely analyzing and verifying the causal relationships of voting changes within the same group. For estimating public opinion at a specific point in time, such as support rates, a general one-time survey (ad hoc) is considered a more appropriate methodology. However, as this is the first survey of the 1st 5-Region Panel Survey, issues such as panel attrition due to respondent dropout in repeated surveys and panel contamination effects where respondents become politically awakened are absent. Therefore, it is judged that there are no fundamental flaws compared to one-time surveys. Nevertheless, careful interpretation is necessary, considering the characteristics of panel surveys. In practice, based on experiences with panel surveys from the 2006 local elections and the 2007 presidential election, EAI panel survey results have shown predictive accuracy comparable to one-time surveys for most questions, excluding 'voter turnout' and 'election interest,' even during repeated surveys. (See 'Changing Korean Voters 1 & 2')

□ Oh Se-hoon vs. Han Myeong-sook: 10.4%P difference in support rates; 9.8%P difference among actively voting constituents

This survey reveals that Democratic Party candidate Han Myeong-sook is closely trailing Grand National Party candidate Oh Se-hoon with 29.8% support compared to Oh Se-hoon's 40.2%. The gap between the two candidates, which widened to 15-20% in early May, has narrowed to a single-digit difference in this survey. Among those who stated they would 'definitely vote,' Han Myeong-sook garnered 33.7% support, narrowing the gap to Oh Se-hoon's 43.5% by 9.8%. Han Myeong-sook's support, which seemed to have lost momentum due to her avoidance of TV debates during the Democratic Party primaries, appears to be recovering as the official election campaign begins.

Conversely, it is possible to interpret that Oh Se-hoon's support rate has already peaked with little room for further increase, while Han Myeong-sook's support rate, which started from a lower point, still has potential for growth as the election heats up. In Seoul, the proportion of voters who have not decided on a candidate is 24%, which is lower than the average of 34.5% across the five surveyed regions, suggesting this could be a variable for upward movement.

□ An Upset in Gyeongnam? Kim Du-gwan at 25.7%, Lee Dal-gon at 23.4% within the margin of error

Gyeongnam Province is attracting as much attention as the Seoul election. Despite Gyeongnam being a region with strong Grand National Party leanings, independent candidate Kim Du-gwan, associated with the pro-Roh faction, is narrowly leading Lee Dal-gon of the Grand National Party, whose nomination was controversial as a 'parachute appointment' from the Blue House. In this survey, independent candidate Kim Du-gwan, the unified opposition candidate, has a support rate of 25.7%, leading Lee Dal-gon's 23.4% by 2.3%, within the margin of error. The gap widens to 3.9% in terms of support among actively voting constituents, with Kim Du-gwan receiving 30.2% and Lee Dal-gon receiving 26.3%.

Regionally, Lee Dal-gon leads by a narrow margin in Miryang/Changnyeong/Changwon/Masan/Uiryeong/Haman, while Kim Du-gwan leads by a relatively large margin in Gimhae/Yangsan/Jinhae and by a narrow margin in other areas. Of course, with the proportion of undecided voters being nearly half at 45.3%, significantly higher than in other regions, and furthermore, with 39.2% of those who expressed a strong intention to vote still undecided, the direction of undecided votes will be the biggest key to the Gyeongnam election. Fierce competition between the two candidates to secure undecided votes is expected to unfold.

□ Chungnam Province: Pro-Roh 386 Group Performing Well. Ahn Hee-jung 23.3%, Park Sang-don 17.3%, Park Hae-choon 11.7%

The election in Chungnam Province, the center of the Sejong City controversy, is experiencing a close contest. In this survey, Ahn Hee-jung, a key figure of the 386 group from the Roh Moo-hyun administration, is leading Park Sang-don of the Liberty Forward Party by 6%P and Park Hae-choon of the Grand National Party by 11.6%P. The three-way race, with Ahn Hee-jung and Park Sang-don vying for the role of appropriately handling the original Sejong City plan, and Park Hae-choon, a candidate from the business sector who recently entered the race advocating for Chungnam's development, is expected to be a close contest with 41.1% of undecided votes.

Notably, in Chungnam Province, 41.3% of voters indicated they would vote based on the candidate's political party, a higher proportion than in other regions, suggesting that party affiliation is more significant than individual candidates, policies, or pledges. In this survey, the party support rates in Chungnam Province show the Democratic Party with 24.6%, the Grand National Party with 20.1%, and the Liberty Forward Party with 20.0%, with the Democratic Party having a slight lead. On the other hand, the proportion of voters without a party affiliation is 24.9%, higher than those with a party affiliation. Among those without a party affiliation, 67.8% have not yet decided on a candidate, indicating that the votes of unaffiliated undecided voters will determine the outcome.

□ In a Democratic Party stronghold, the 'Mad Cow Disease Controversy' figure struggles. Kim Wan-ju 50.5%, Chung Woo-cheon 7.2%

Chung Woo-cheon, the first Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs under the Lee Myung-bak administration who resigned amidst the controversy over mad cow disease imports from the U.S., is facing expected difficulties in Jeonbuk Province, the home region of former Democratic Party leaders. In this survey, Democratic Party candidate Kim Wan-ju received a 50.5% support rate, while Chung Woo-cheon received 7.2%. Kim Wan-ju appears to be benefiting significantly from the incumbent effect, enjoying strong local support due to the central government's assistance and cooperation for the Saemangeum development project, a long-standing regional aspiration. Chung Woo-cheon is positioning himself as the right person to secure economic support from the central government to revitalize the underdeveloped regional economy, but he has yet to elicit significant shifts in voter sentiment in Jeonbuk, a region with a strong Democratic Party base.

□ Can the unified opposition candidate overcome Kim Moon-soo in Gyeonggi? If unified, Kim Moon-soo 37.6%, Yoo Si-min 28.7%

Yoo Si-min was confirmed as the Gyeonggi gubernatorial candidate through the opposition party primaries on May 13th. This survey, conducted before the opposition candidate was finalized, does not reflect the effect of candidate unification. In this survey, Grand National Party candidate Kim Moon-soo is significantly leading both Democratic Party candidate Kim Jin-pyo and Participation Party candidate Yoo Si-min. Kim Moon-soo's support rate is 38.4%, leading the combined support of the two opposition candidates, Kim Jin-pyo and Yoo Si-min, which totals 30.1%, by 8.3%. Kim Moon-soo also leads the opposition candidates in support rates across all regions, both in northern and southern Gyeonggi. Attention is focused on whether the gap between the ruling and opposition party candidates can be narrowed as the election campaign intensifies. In particular, whether the unification of opposition candidates will create synergy and boost their support rates is also a point of interest.

[Figure 2] Voting Preferences in 5 Regions

Factors for Voting Decisions: Seoul/Jeonbuk prioritize candidate factors; Chungnam Province prioritizes party affiliation

When asked what they would consider when choosing a candidate, voters in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province cited the candidate's individual ability and qualifications as the primary factor. In Seoul, 36.2% of voters responded they would vote based on the candidate's individual qualities rather than party or policy, while in Gyeonggi Province, 41.2% expressed the same. In contrast, 41.3% of voters in Chungnam Province indicated they would vote based on the candidate's party affiliation rather than the candidate or policy. Therefore, this election can be characterized as one where votes are determined by candidates and parties, rather than by the superiority of policies and pledges.

[Figure 3] Factors Influencing Support Decisions in 5 Regions

June 2nd Local Elections: Widespread sentiment for checks and balances

Voters in the five surveyed regions generally agree with the sentiment that 'the opposition party should be supported to prevent the unchecked dominance of the Grand National Party and the President.' In Jeonbuk and Chungnam Provinces, over half of the voters, 67.8% and 54.6% respectively, agreed with the need for checks and balances. While the proportion was somewhat lower in the other three regions, the sentiment for checks and balances was still dominant. Conversely, the proportion of voters who agreed with the 'stability theory,' stating that 'the ruling Grand National Party should be supported for stable state administration,' was somewhat higher in Seoul and Gyeongnam Provinces at 35.2% and 33% respectively, but still lower than those who agreed with the checks and balances theory. This can be interpreted as a reflection of the public's desire to check the Grand National Party, which controls both the government and the National Assembly, through the local elections.

[Figure 4] Ratio of Stability Theory vs. Checks and Balances Theory by Region

June 2nd Local Elections Landscape: Still Uncertain

Close contests expected in 4 regions, excluding Jeonbuk

Seoul/Gyeonggi/Gyeongnam: Ruling party advantage; Chungnam/Jeonbuk: Opposition party relative advantage expected

Voters predict a close contest in four of the five surveyed regions, excluding Jeonbuk. Close races are anticipated not only in Gyeongnam and Chungnam Provinces, where the ruling and opposition candidates are currently in a tight race, but also in Seoul and Gyeonggi Provinces, where Grand National Party candidates are leading significantly. In Seoul, 45.8% of voters expect the ruling party candidate to have an advantage, only slightly more than the 41.5% who anticipate a close election. In Gyeonggi Province, despite a larger gap in support rates than in Seoul, 43.0% of voters believe the race will be a close contest, indistinguishable in terms of advantage, which is 16.5% more than the 36.5% who expect the ruling party candidate to have an advantage. Nearly half of the voters in Chungnam and Gyeongnam Provinces, where a close race is currently underway, at 47.2% and 45.7% respectively, believe the outcome is difficult to predict. Overall, voters seem to expect that, as the election is still in its early stages, there is ample room for shifts in support rates between ruling and opposition candidates during the campaign.

[Figure 5] Predicted Election Landscape by Region

2. Factor Analysis

(1) Candidate Factors: Han Myeong-sook trails Oh Se-hoon in moral evaluation in Seoul, possibly due to prosecution investigation

Grand National Party candidates perceived as conservative, Democratic Party candidates as progressive: Kim Wan-ju candidate in Jeonbuk perceived as conservative

Oh Se-hoon, Kim Moon-soo, Kim Wan-ju: Superior in both morality and mayoral/provincial administration capabilities; Han Myeong-sook also trails in morality

The survey results indicate that leading candidates are ahead of their opponents in evaluations of both morality and administrative capabilities. Oh Se-hoon in Seoul, Kim Moon-soo in Gyeonggi, and Kim Wan-ju in Jeonbuk lead their respective opponents in evaluations of morality and capability. In Seoul, despite being acquitted of bribery charges, Democratic Party candidate Han Myeong-sook received lower ratings than Oh Se-hoon and also trailed in the evaluation of her administrative capabilities.

Considering that Han Myeong-sook was relatively more trusted by voters among the key politicians of the former Uri Party, this suggests that the bribery charges, despite the acquittal, had a substantial impact.

In Gyeongnam, where a close race is underway, as expected from a contest between two former ministerial-level officials, the evaluation of administrative capabilities is neck-and-neck, with Lee Dal-gon at 6.0 points and Kim Du-gwan at 5.9 points. However, Kim Du-gwan leads in the evaluation of morality. In Chungnam, Ahn Hee-jung is competing with Liberty Forward Party's Park Sang-don for the lead in evaluations of morality and administrative capabilities, with the Grand National Party's Park Hae-cheon trailing behind.

In terms of ideological orientation, Grand National Party candidates were evaluated as conservative and Democratic Party candidates as progressive across all regions, indicating a perceived ideological gap between candidates. However, in Jeonbuk, voters assigned a score of 5.7 to Chung Woo-cheon and 5.6 to Kim Wan-ju, perceiving both as moderately conservative candidates.

[Figure 6] Candidate Evaluations by Region: Morality, Ideology, and Mayoral/Provincial Administration Capabilities

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(2) [Gyeonggi] What is the effect of the unification of Yoo Si-min and Kim Jin-pyo?

Before unification, Kim Moon-soo 38.4% > Yoo Si-min 15.6% > Kim Jin-pyo 14.5%

If unified under Yoo Si-min, Kim Moon-soo 37.6% > Yoo Si-min 28.7%

The biggest concern in this election is the extent of the destructive power of the opposition's candidate unification against the Grand National Party. In particular, attention is focused on the vote shift in the Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election, where unification was achieved under Yoo Si-min on the 13th. If not unified, the order of support was Kim Moon-soo of the Grand National Party at 38.4%, Yoo Si-min of the People's Participation Party at 15.6%, Kim Jin-pyo of the Democratic Party at 14.5%, Sim Sang-jeong at 1.1%, and Ahn Dong-seop at 0.6%. Undecided voters accounted for 26.0%.

However, when asked 'If unified under Yoo Si-min, who would you vote for?', Kim Moon-soo received 37.6%, similar to the previous figure, while the unified candidate Yoo Si-min trailed by a margin of 10 percentage points with 28.7%. Ahn Dong-seop received 3.2%, and Sim Sang-jeong received 2.2%. The proportion of respondents who had not yet decided on a candidate remained at 25.3%.

[Figure 7] Changes in Support for Gyeonggi Governor Candidates Before and After Unification (Survey of 600 people in Gyeonggi Province)

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The "+α" effect of unification is uncertain

Of Kim Jin-pyo's supporters (87 people), only 48.5% (42 people) shifted to Yoo Si-min.

With unification, 19.2% (30 people) of the 156 undecided voters shifted to Yoo Si-min, which is more beneficial than the 8.6% (13 people) absorbed by Candidate Kim.

Looking at the changes in support rates before and after unification, the proportion of respondents who would support candidate Yoo Si-min if unified was 28.7%. This is slightly lower than the combined 30.1% if both Yoo Si-min and Kim Jin-pyo ran individually (Yoo Si-min at 15.6% and Kim Jin-pyo at 14.5%). While there is potential for change during the election campaign, the synergistic effect of unification has not yet been confirmed. Although this survey was conducted assuming unification before it actually happened, and thus may differ from public opinion after experiencing the actual effects of unification, the results are noteworthy for their ability to predict vote shifts.

Most importantly, if unified under Yoo Si-min, a significant portion of Kim Jin-pyo's supporters are expected to defect. If both candidates ran individually, only 48.5% (42 out of 87 supporters) of those who would have supported Kim Jin-pyo indicated they would support Yoo Si-min after unification. While this expands Yoo Si-min's support base by 42 individuals, it results in a defection of 45 supporters. Among Kim Jin-pyo's supporters, 21.2% (18 people) remained undecided about supporting Yoo Si-min after unification, and 12.6% (11 people) even stated they would support Kim Moon-soo of the Grand National Party. Those who shifted to support Ahn Dong-seop of the Democratic Labor Party numbered 11, or 12.6%, and 4 people, or 4.2%, shifted to support Sim Sang-jeong. This indicates a considerable level of resistance from Kim Jin-pyo's supporters towards Yoo Si-min.

If unified under Yoo Si-min, 19.2% of the 156 undecided voters from the individual candidacy phase, or 30 people, shifted their support to Yoo Si-min. This means that Yoo Si-min gained the support of one out of every five undecided voters after unification, which is insufficient to significantly narrow the gap with Kim Moon-soo. Additionally, 6 supporters of Kim Moon-soo (out of 230), 1 supporter each from Ahn Dong-seop and Sim Sang-jeong (out of 4 and 7 respectively), and 4 individuals from the abstention or 'don't know' group (out of 22) expressed new support for Yoo Si-min. However, the fact that the gap with Kim Moon-soo, who was previously ahead by more than a double margin, has been narrowed to 10 percentage points clearly indicates that a foundation for pursuit has been established.

[Table 1] Changes in Support for Major Candidates Before and After Unification

[Table 2] Changes in Overall Vote Distribution Before and After Unification

(3) Issues and Topics for the June 2nd Local Elections by Region

Key Agenda for Local Elections: Livelihood/Welfare vs. Regional Development/Revitalization

There is a close contest between those who prioritize regional development and economic revitalization and those who emphasize the stability of welfare and livelihoods as the most important issues for the upcoming local elections. The average of the survey results from five regions (600 respondents each) shows a neck-and-neck race between "Measures for stabilizing livelihoods and expanding regional welfare" at 32.4% and "Measures for regional development and economic revitalization" at 31.1%. This indicates that 'welfare' and 'regional economy' are the main issues for the June 2nd local elections. Additionally, 13.8% of respondents cited measures for eradicating corruption and reforming local politics. "Measures for educational reform and expansion of educational infrastructure" accounted for 6.6%, and "Measures for administrative reform, such as administrative integration" accounted for 5.8%. Conversely, the importance of environmental and cultural aspects did not receive significant attention in the local elections, with "Measures for the development of environmental and regional cultural infrastructure" accounting for only 5.6% of the total responses.

In all five surveyed regions, there is a close balance between the proportion of respondents prioritizing livelihood stabilization and welfare and those prioritizing development and regional economic revitalization. In Seoul, "Measures for stabilizing livelihoods and expanding regional welfare" were chosen by 34.9%, while regional development was prioritized by 26.7%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. In Gyeonggi, livelihood/welfare was chosen by 35.1%, and regional development/revitalization by 30.1%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. In contrast, in Jeonbuk, "Measures for regional development and economic revitalization" were chosen by 34.0%, surpassing livelihood and welfare at 29.0% by 5.0 percentage points. However, in Chungnam and Gyeongnam, the response rates for each were closely matched.

[Table 3] Key Issues for Local Elections by 5 Regions (%)

Top issues considered when voting: free meals for elementary and middle school students, the Four Major Rivers Project, and the Sejong City project, in that order

Livelihood and regional economy issues prioritized over political security issues such as the Cheonan sinking, the Korean Teachers and Education Workers' Union (KTU), and the first anniversary of Roh Moo-hyun's death

We asked about the degree of consideration for major issues in the upcoming local elections in each of the five regions. In all regions, the free meals policy, the Four Major Rivers Project, and the Sejong City project were perceived as the most significant issues. The Cheonan incident, the disclosure of the KTU teacher roster, and the first anniversary of former President Roh Moo-hyun's death followed in terms of the proportion of respondents who stated they would "consider" them.

The proportion of respondents who would consider the issue of free meals for elementary and middle school students exceeded 70% in all five regions (Jeonbuk 80.3%, Gyeongnam 79.9%, Gyeonggi 79.7%, Seoul 75.1%, Chungnam 74.0%), confirming it as the top issue for this election. Consideration for the Four Major Rivers Project was relatively lower in Jeonbuk and Chungnam at 65.9% and 64.8% respectively, while receiving consistent support of around 72.0% in other regions. The Sejong City issue followed. Gyeonggi reported 64.6%, Seoul 66.4%, Gyeongnam 62.9%, and Jeonbuk 61.0%. However, in Chungnam, the proportion of respondents considering the Sejong City issue reached 73.4%, closely competing with free meals (74.0%) for the top spot, indicating it as the primary issue in the Chungnam gubernatorial election.

Meanwhile, consideration for the Cheonan sinking incident was 58.3% in Chungnam, 58.1% in Seoul, 58.0% in Gyeonggi, 58.0% in Gyeongnam, and 57.1% in Jeonbuk. For the issue of the KTU teacher roster disclosure, responses were 49.4% in Seoul, 49.0% in Jeonbuk, 49.2% in Gyeongnam, 47.1% in Gyeonggi, and 45.4% in Chungnam, showing similar levels across regions. Lastly, regarding the issue of former President Roh Moo-hyun's death, which is emerging as a major concern, the proportion of respondents considering it was 50.3% in Jeonbuk, higher than in other regions and similar to the KTU teacher roster disclosure issue (49.0%). This was followed by Chungnam at 42.3%, Gyeongnam at 42.2%, Gyeonggi at 36.9%, and Seoul at 34.6%.

Overall, it can be concluded that concrete issues with a closer impact on daily life and the regional economy, such as free meals, the Four Major Rivers Project, and the Sejong City project, are being considered as important factors in voting decisions, rather than political security issues like the Cheonan sinking, the KTU teacher roster disclosure, and the anniversary of former President Roh Moo-hyun's death.

[Figure 8] Consideration Rates for Major Issues in Local Elections by 5 Regions (%)

Public Opinion Distribution on the Top 3 Issues by Region

Full implementation of free meals for elementary and middle school students vs. selective implementation: Neck-and-neck in the Seoul metropolitan area, with full implementation favored in provincial areas

Those in their 30s and 40s prefer full implementation

We analyzed the stances of voters in each region regarding the key issues of the upcoming local elections: free meals for elementary and middle school students, the Sejong City project, and the Four Major Rivers Project. Regarding free meals for elementary and middle school students, the proportion of respondents favoring full implementation (for all students) was slightly higher than that for selective implementation (limited to low-income students) in all regions except Seoul. Opposition to free meals remained low, at 1-3%.

[Figure 9] Differences in Stance on Free Meals for Elementary and Middle School Students by 5 Regions (%)

One notable point is the difference in stance on free meals for elementary and middle school students by age group. Support for full implementation was particularly high among those in their 30s and 40s. Considering that these age groups likely have children in elementary and middle school, it can be interpreted that educational stakeholders prefer the full implementation of free meals.

[Table 4] Proportion of "Full Implementation" Responses for Free Meals for Elementary and Middle School Students by 5 Regions and Age Group (%)

Original Sejong City plan maintained: favors opposition parties in Chungnam and Jeonbuk, Grand National Party in Seoul metropolitan area and Gyeongnam

Regarding the Sejong City project, the revised plan, which proposes development as an education and science-focused city, received higher support overall than the original plan for an administrative hub complex city. In Seoul, in particular, the proportion of respondents supporting the revised plan exceeded half, showing the highest response rate among the five surveyed regions. In contrast, in Chungnam, which is directly affected, 53.4% supported the original plan, and in Jeonbuk, the proportion supporting the original plan was also higher than that supporting the revised plan.

[Figure 10] Differences in Stance on the Sejong City Project by 5 Regions (%)

Four Major Rivers Project: High public opinion for project suspension even among President Lee Myung-bak's supporters

The Four Major Rivers Project is facing the greatest resistance among the issues included in this survey. In all five surveyed regions, the proportion of respondents favoring scale reduction, postponement, or project suspension was higher than that for maintaining the original plan.

[Figure 11] Differences in Stance on the Four Major Rivers Project by 5 Regions (%)

3. Basic Variables

1. President Lee Myung-bak's national approval rating: The limitation of the "regime judgment" argument due to stable approval ratings?

President Lee Myung-bak's national approval rating shows some regional variations. In Seoul, he enjoys a high approval rating of 49.3%. In Gyeonggi, he secured an approval rating of 42.5%, and in Chungnam, 41.3%. However, in Jeonbuk, his approval rating is relatively low at 30.9%, but considering that the Honam region traditionally shows strong resistance to the ruling party, this can be considered a high approval rating. In Gyeongnam, he achieved an approval rating of over 50%, at 50.3%. Given the stable presidential approval ratings, the argument for "regime judgment" based on the current government's policy failures is unlikely to gain traction in this local election.

[Figure 12] Presidential Approval Rating by Region (%)

Strong national approval from Grand National Party supporters and conservatives; low intention to vote among critics of government performance

Based in Seoul, the presidential approval rating shows a clear division based on party affiliation. While 87.9% of Grand National Party supporters gave a positive evaluation, 74.3% of Democratic Party supporters gave a negative evaluation, demonstrating a clear split based on party support.

Furthermore, there are significant differences based on ideological orientation: 64% of conservatives, 48.4% of moderates, and 26.5% of progressives gave positive evaluations, indicating that support increases with conservative political leanings, while opposition strengthens with progressive leanings.

Examining the relationship between national approval ratings and voting intention, 53.6% of those who stated they would "definitely vote" approved, while 79.0% of those who expressed an intention to abstain disapproved. This suggests that those who are more critical of the government's performance may have a lower propensity to vote. The national approval rating of President Lee Myung-bak is strongly supported by Grand National Party supporters and conservatives, who also show a strong intention to vote.

2. Evaluation of Incumbent Local Officials

Overall, the retrospective evaluations of incumbent metropolitan mayors and provincial governors' administration by regional voters are quite positive, suggesting a low likelihood of punitive voting against current officeholders. Specifically, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon received a 62.5% approval rating, Gyeonggi Governor Kim Moon-soo received 64.7%, and Jeonbuk Governor Kim Wan-ju received 71.7%. Governors Lee Wan-koo of Chungnam and Kim Tae-ho of Gyeongnam, who are not running in this election, also received approval ratings of 64.4% and 62.7% respectively.

In terms of the effect of the mayor's approval rating on re-election, the higher the voting intention among those who positively evaluate the incumbent, the higher the possibility of re-election. In Seoul, there was no significant relationship between the evaluation of Mayor Oh Se-hoon's administration and voting intention. However, among those who intended to vote, 62.1% supported him, while 36.1% opposed. In Gyeonggi Province, 63.4% of those who intended to vote supported him, while 44.7% of those who intended to abstain opposed him. Notably, in Jeonbuk, those with a strong intention to vote showed higher support for Governor Kim Wan-ju, while those intending to abstain showed stronger opposition. These results suggest that incumbent governors who receive positive evaluations for their administrative performance are in an advantageous position for re-election.

[Figure 13] Evaluation of Incumbent Metropolitan and Provincial Governors by Region (%)

3. Party Support Rates

Party support rates show contrasting patterns across regions. In Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Gyeongnam, the Grand National Party had the highest support rates, while in Chungnam and Jeonbuk, the Democratic Party was the most popular.

In Seoul, the Grand National Party had 38.1% and the Democratic Party had 22.0%. In Gyeonggi, the Grand National Party had 34.3% and the Democratic Party had 24.1%, showing a difference. In Gyeongnam, the Grand National Party had 38.7% and the Democratic Party had 12.5%, a significant gap of over 26%. In contrast, the Democratic Party held an overwhelming majority in Jeonbuk with 52.8%. In Chungnam, the Democratic Party led with 24.6%, followed by the Liberty Forward Party at 21.0% and the Grand National Party at 20.1%, indicating a close race.

Undecided voters constitute approximately 30% in all regions, making their preference shifts a crucial variable for the election outcome. Particularly in Chungnam, where competition between parties is fierce, the preferences of undecided voters, representing one-fourth of the electorate, will act as a strong variable.

[Table 5] Party Support by Region (%)

Meanwhile, an analysis of party favorability reveals that the Grand National Party (GNP) was highest in Seoul and Gyeongnam, while the Democratic Party received the highest favorability in Gyeonggi, Chungnam, and Jeonbuk. However, excluding the Jeonbuk region, both the GNP and the Democratic Party scored below 5, indicating generally low favorability.

Compared to party support rates, favorability in the Gyeonggi region is noteworthy. While the GNP showed high support rates, the Democratic Party exhibited high favorability, presenting a peculiar pattern. In Chungnam, the Democratic Party ranked highest in both support and favorability. The Liberty Forward Party received the second-highest favorability in Chungnam, following the Democratic Party.

[Table 6] Party Favorability by Region (%)

4. Economic Voting

To examine the explanatory power of economic voting for local government executive elections, voters' assessments of economic conditions were surveyed. This analysis focuses on the social voting patterns observed in Korean election analyses, examining evaluations of regional and national economic conditions.

[Figure 14] Economic Perception (%)

Regional Economy

Regional Economy Compared to Other Regions

National Economy

First, regarding the overall assessment of the regional economy, a high proportion of respondents perceived improvement or no change. In contrast, for the national economy, a higher perception was that it had worsened. Therefore, election outcomes will likely differ depending on whether voters' behavior in local elections is strongly influenced by judgments about the regional economy or the national economy. If national economic conditions serve as the benchmark, there is a possibility of a punitive vote against the incumbent government and ruling party in all regions. However, if regional economic conditions are the primary benchmark, it could lead to different results in each region.

In Seoul and Gyeonggi, the perception of improvement was notably high at 40.4% and 41.4%, respectively, and Gyeongnam also showed a high positive evaluation at 32.4%. However, in Chungnam and Jeonbuk, the perception of improvement was relatively low at 26.4% and 24.4%. Nevertheless, the perception of worsening conditions in these regions was only around 16%, suggesting a low likelihood of punitive voting due to worsening economic conditions. Furthermore, the relative perception of regional economic conditions showed little difference from the direct assessment of regional economic conditions, and in all regions except Jeonbuk, the relative assessment was more positive than the evaluation of the regional economy itself. In Jeonbuk, the response indicating that regional economic conditions had worsened was 21.3%, higher than the perception of worsening regional economic conditions at 16.3%, indicating a distinct dissatisfaction with regional disparities compared to other regions.

[Figure 15] Attribution of Responsibility for Changes in Economic Conditions (%)

Attribution of Responsibility for Changes in the Regional Economy

Attribution of Responsibility for Changes in the National Economy

However, these economic perceptions do not appear to be directly linked to responsibility for the current local executive and influence voting choices. This is because the responsibility for worsening economic conditions is strongly attributed to the central government, and thus does not directly translate into an evaluation of the local executive. Rather, the tendency to attribute responsibility to the government and ruling party is more likely to lead to support for an opposition party executive.

In contrast to the attribution of responsibility for national economic conditions, the perception of responsibility for local economic conditions showed some regional differences. Specifically, in Seoul and Jeonbuk, over one-third of respondents attributed responsibility to the central government (37.9% and 39.2%, respectively). However, in Gyeonggi and Gyeongnam, the perception of local government responsibility was higher (41.3% and 30.7%, respectively) than that of the central government (25.2% and 27.9%, respectively). Therefore, in Gyeonggi and Gyeongnam, evaluations of the regional economy are likely to have a greater impact on the election than in other regions. However, since the perception of responsibility attributed to local governments for regional economic conditions is positive, it is more likely to benefit the current executive rather than disadvantage them.

[Figure 16] Attribution of Responsibility for Changes in Regional Economic Conditions (%)

Economy

Gyeongnam

In the case of Gyeonggi Province, when asked about the responsibility for worsening regional economic conditions, the central government was cited by 43.1%, while the local government was cited by only 15.5%. However, when it came to perceptions of improvement, the local government was credited by 62.4% as the reason, compared to only 9.8% for the central government. This confirms a tendency to attribute the positive impact of regional economic improvement to the local government and the negative impact to the central government. Therefore, voters' evaluations of regional economic conditions are highly likely to translate into support for the current executive, suggesting that the possibility of economic voting would favor Governor Kim Moon-soo of Gyeonggi.

Similarly, in Gyeongnam, regarding responsibility for worsening regional economy, the central government was cited by 48.5% and the local government by 19.6%. Conversely, for improvement, the local government was credited by 43.5% and the central government by 14.5%. Therefore, it is worth noting how much support for Governor Kim Tae-ho of Gyeongnam, stemming from the improvement of the regional economy, will be reflected in candidates from the same party, the Grand National Party.