[Opinion Briefing 80-1] Key Issues of the June 2 Local Elections: How Will the 'Roh Wave' Blow?

[Opinion Briefing 80] EAI · JoongAng Ilbo · SBS · Korea Research 2010 Local Elections Panel Survey

1st Survey of the 5-Region Panel Survey for the June 2 Local Elections

1. Analysis of the 'Roh Wave' as the Biggest Issue in the June 2 Local Elections

2. Basic Analysis of the 1st 5-Region Panel Survey

EAI, JoongAng Ilbo, SBS, and Korea Research plan to conduct a panel survey targeting 600 respondents, recruited proportionally to the population in five regions (Seoul, Gyeonggi, Gyeongnam, Chungnam, and Jeonbuk), all of whom are the same individuals. This survey represents the results of the first round. A total of three surveys will be conducted after the election to track how the voting intentions of voters in these regions change over time.

At this stage, with candidate registration for the local elections concluded, the most noteworthy aspect is which party is forming a favorable confrontation structure for itself. In 9 out of the 16 metropolitan mayoral races, pro-Roh Moo-hyun figures are running as opposition candidates. The Grand National Party (GNP) is creating a confrontation structure of 'MB vs. Pro-Roh' and launching a large-scale offensive under the banner of judging the pro-Roh faction. In response, the Democratic Party is aiming for a one-on-one confrontation with the GNP by forming a unified opposition candidate, framing it as 'MB vs. Anti-MB' and countering with a call to judge the current administration. Notably, in Seoul and Gyeonggi, they are pursuing an alliance of four opposition parties in the Seoul metropolitan area, including an agreement for candidate unification with the Democratic Labor Party candidate.

Through an analysis of the panel survey results, we aim to analyze how much the influence of the 'Roh Wave,' which has emerged as the biggest variable in this election, will affect voters' choices, and whether the current framing of the situation as a confrontation between 'living MB and deceased Roh Moo-hyun' is valid.

Will the first anniversary of former President Roh Moo-hyun's death become an election variable?

Greater mobilization effect for ruling and opposition parties than issues like Sejong City, the Four Major Rivers Project, and free school meals

Seo Hyun-jin (Professor, Department of Social Education, Sungshin Women's University)

The first panel survey, conducted from March 10 to 13 in five regions, shows that the issue of former President Roh Moo-hyun's death and its first anniversary had a lower impact on voting choices compared to other issues such as free school meals, the Four Major Rivers Project, and Sejong City. However, for issues like free school meals, the Four Major Rivers Project, and Sejong City, there are clear differences in pro and con stances among party supporters, and the proportion of respondents who would consider these issues in their voting choice showed little variation by party affiliation.

However, regarding the issue of former President Roh's death, while most supporters of the Grand National Party considered it unimportant regardless of region, a significant portion of Democratic Party and People's Participation Party supporters viewed it as an important issue.

A considerable number of Democratic Party and People's Participation Party supporters consider the first anniversary of former President Roh's death an important issue. Among current party supporters, a difference was observed in all five regions between Grand National Party supporters and Democratic Party and People's Participation Party supporters. In Seoul, 14.3% of Grand National Party supporters and a striking 62.1% of Democratic Party supporters responded that they would consider it in their vote. In Gyeonggi, this figure was 22.8% for Grand National Party supporters and 56.7% for Democratic Party supporters. In Gyeongnam, it was 25.3% for Grand National Party supporters and 68.5% for Democratic Party supporters. In Chungnam, it was 20.2% for Grand National Party supporters and 63.4% for Democratic Party supporters. Supporters of the People's Participation Party and the Democratic Labor Party also showed a high proportion of respondents who would use the first anniversary of former President Roh's death as an important criterion for their voting choice, similar to Democratic Party supporters.

The issue of former President Roh's death appears to be an issue that strengthens political mobilization between the ruling and opposition parties more than other issues in actual voting.

Taking Seoul as an example, for the Sejong City issue, 40.2% of those who would consider it in their voting decision supported candidate Oh Se-hoon, while 31.4% supported candidate Han Myeong-sook. Among those who would not consider the Sejong City issue in their voting choice, support for Oh was 41.2% and for Han Myeong-sook was 27.3%. While the degree of support for candidate Oh Se-hoon differs based on whether the Sejong City issue is considered a voting criterion, it appears to benefit candidate Oh Se-hoon regardless of the stance. For the Four Major Rivers Project, among those who would consider it when voting, support for Oh was 38.1% and for Han Myeong-sook was 32.6%. Among those who would not consider it, support for Oh Se-hoon was 44.4% and for Han Myeong-sook was 23.8%. When considered as a voting criterion, the gap between the two candidates narrows, but it does not affect their ranking. For the free school meals issue, which has emerged as the biggest issue in the June 2 local elections, 39.6% of those who consider it an important voting criterion support candidate Oh Se-hoon, and 31.6% support candidate Han Myeong-sook. Among those who do not consider it, 43.9% support Oh Se-hoon, and Han Myeong-sook receives 25.2% support, widening the gap slightly.

In contrast, whether the first anniversary of former President Roh's death is considered a voting criterion has a significant impact on the choice of candidate compared to other issues. Among those who would consider the issue of former President Roh's death as a voting criterion, a majority, 49.0%, stated they would vote for candidate Han Myeong-sook, while only 19.7% said they would vote for candidate Oh. Conversely, among those who would not consider the issue of former President Roh's death, support for candidate Oh Se-hoon was a striking 51.9%, while support for candidate Han Myeong-sook dropped to 19.5%. This indicates a high likelihood of opposing candidate choices between voters who use the first anniversary of former President Roh's death as a voting criterion and those who do not.

Ultimately, the issue of the first anniversary of former President Roh Moo-hyun's death has a stronger influence on voting choices than any other issue in determining whether to use it as a voting criterion and in deciding the actual candidate to support. In actual voting choices, respondents who consider the issue related to former President Roh tend to support candidate Han Myeong-sook, while those who do not tend to support candidate Oh Se-hoon, suggesting a strong mobilization effect for both camps. It suggests that the grief or anger of supporters over the tragic death of President Roh, marked by the first anniversary, could be expressed through the political confrontation strategy of the Grand National Party versus 'pro-Roh' or 'anti-MB' alliances. It will be one of the points to watch in this election to see whether the issue of President Roh's death, which is not very important to Grand National Party supporters, will lead to the mobilization of pro-Roh supporters or become a key variable in mobilizing anti-MB supporters.

[Figure 1] Proportion (%) of respondents considering the 'First Anniversary of Former President Roh's Death' when voting, by current party affiliation

[Figure 2] Proportion (%) of respondents considering the 'First Anniversary of Former President Roh's Death' when voting, by voting party in the 2006 Local Elections

[Figure 3] Ruling and Opposition Party Support Differences Based on Consideration of Key Issues: Seoul Case (%)

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Will the 'MB vs. Pro-Roh' Structure Materialize?

Is it an 'MB vs. Pro-Roh' Confrontation or an 'MB vs. Anti-MB' Confrontation?

Focusing on Cases in Seoul, Gyeonggi, Gyeongnam, and Chungnam

Yoo Sung-jin (Ewha Womans University BK21)

With the candidates for the June 2 local elections finalized and election fervor gradually spreading, particularly in closely contested areas, one notable characteristic of this election is the significant presence of key figures from the previous participatory government, creating a confrontation structure with figures from the current administration. In Seoul, Han Myeong-sook; in Gyeonggi, Yoo Si-min; and in Gyeongnam, Kim Du-gwan, are prominent figures from the participatory government, competing against key figures from the current administration such as Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, Gyeonggi Governor Kim Moon-soo, and former Minister of Government Administration and Home Affairs Lee Dal-gon. This structure has led some to characterize this local election as a confrontation between the current administration and the former participatory government, or between MB and pro-Roh forces.

The results of this survey indicate that such a characterization of this local election may be overly simplistic or even distorted. If we consider voters who chose the Uri Party in the 2006 local elections, when former President Roh Moo-hyun's approval ratings were rapidly declining, as the core support base of the participatory government, then candidate Han Myeong-sook received 58.8% support in Seoul, while candidates Yoo Si-min, Ahn Hee-jung, and Kim Du-gwan received 45.1%, 40.6%, and 53.8% support, respectively. These figures suggest that while there is some mobilization of pro-Roh forces in this election, it is not to the extent that the election itself can be characterized as a confrontation between MB and pro-Roh forces.

Rather, the supporters of figures from the participatory government were broadly formed not only among pro-Roh forces but also across the broader opposition, including the Democratic Party and the Democratic Labor Party, as well as among undecided voters. Based on the party affiliations of each candidate's supporters, 48.3% of Han Myeong-sook's supporters are Democratic Party supporters, 30.3% are undecided, 5.6% are Democratic Labor Party supporters, and 5.6% are Grand National Party supporters. Supporters of the People's Participation Party, which advocates for being a pro-Roh party, constitute only 3.9% of Han Myeong-sook's support base. Yoo Si-min's support base is also composed of 46.0% Democratic Party supporters, 24.4% undecided, 8.5% People's Participation Party supporters, and 7.4% Democratic Labor Party supporters. For candidate Ahn Hee-jung in Chungnam, 62.1% of his total supporters were Democratic Party supporters, with undecided voters accounting for 13.6%. The support base for candidate Kim Du-gwan in Gyeongnam is somewhat distinct, with undecided voters comprising 32.5% of the total, followed by Democratic Party supporters at 18.2%, and notably, Grand National Party supporters at 15.6%. Democratic Labor Party supporters account for approximately 14.3%.

These support figures indicate that the support base for figures from the participatory government is broadly formed across the entire opposition, and the confrontation structure of this local election is defined by support for or opposition to the current Lee Myung-bak administration, rather than the former participatory government. Of course, as the election is still in its early stages and a significant portion of voters (24% to 45.3%) in each region have not yet decided on their candidate, there is ample possibility for this structure to change. However, it appears premature to characterize this election as a confrontation between MB and pro-Roh forces at this point.

[Table 1] Party Affiliation Composition (%) of Supporters of Metropolitan Mayoral Candidates with Pro-Roh Tendencies

Analysis of the Electoral Structure for the June 2 Local Elections

Emergence of the Pro-Roh Frame: Is it Beneficial for the Ruling or Opposition Party? Analysis of 625 Presidential Panel Survey

The direction of 'Anti-MB, Anti-Roh' voters is the key to this election

Jeong Han-wool (EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center)

Yoo Si-min, former minister and political bodyguard of former President Roh Moo-hyun, was selected as the Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial candidate for the opposition, defeating the Democratic Party's Kim Jin-pyo. With a significant number of opposition metropolitan mayoral candidates, including Han Myeong-sook in Seoul, Kim Du-gwan in Gyeongnam, and Ahn Hee-jung in Chungnam, being former pro-Roh figures, the gap in approval ratings between the ruling and opposition parties is narrowing, and with the first anniversary of former President Roh's death on May 23rd approaching, the 'Roh Wave' is emerging as a detonator in the election landscape. The political landscape, where the Grand National Party held a comfortable lead in most opinion polls until recently, except for Chungnam and Honam, is changing, leading to a tendency to understand the election as a dichotomous confrontation between MB and Roh Moo-hyun.

Classifying the current perceptions of voters through the panel surveys conducted by EAI, JoongAng Ilbo, SBS, and Korea Research since the last presidential election, it is difficult to simplify the situation into a dichotomous confrontation of 'MB vs. Pro-Roh.' By cross-tabulating attitudes towards the current government and the previous government, we can identify four types of public opinion: 'Pro-MB, Anti-Roh' (positive towards the MB administration and negative towards the former Roh administration), 'Anti-MB, Pro-Roh' (negative towards the current government and pro-Roh tendencies), 'Anti-MB, Anti-Roh' (critical of both governments), and 'Pro-MB, Pro-Roh' (positive towards both governments).

From the panel survey conducted immediately after the 2007 presidential election, when the 'judgment of the Roh administration' was widespread, to the current survey, among the 621 respondents who participated, anti-MB sentiment is currently at 51.4% and negative sentiment is at 48.6%, showing a close race. Two years ago, the proportion of respondents who evaluated President Roh Moo-hyun positively was only 150 out of 621 respondents, or 24.2%. In contrast, those who were critical of President Roh's administration at the time numbered 471, or a striking 75.8%.

Among the respondents who evaluated President Roh Moo-hyun's administration negatively and the current administration positively, there are 274 out of a total of 674 respondents, accounting for 44.1%, the largest group. In contrast, respondents with an 'Anti-MB, Pro-Roh' tendency, who are negative towards the current MB administration and positive towards the former Roh administration, number only 105, or 16.9% of all respondents. This suggests that the ruling party could benefit if the election develops into an 'MB vs. Pro-Roh' confrontation.

Notably, the 'Anti-MB, Anti-Roh' sentiment, which expresses dissatisfaction with the current MB administration and was also negative towards former President Roh in 2007, accounts for a total of 197 respondents, or 31.7% of all respondents. These individuals are critical of MB but also have considerable reservations about the former pro-Roh camp. The fact that a significant portion of Kim Jin-pyo's supporters did not transition to supporting Yoo Si-min during the Gyeonggi gubernatorial primary process can be attributed to the fact that a substantial part of Kim's support base consists of these 'Anti-MB, Anti-Roh' voters. Respondents who were positive towards both governments numbered 45, or only 7.2% of the total.

If the 'Anti-MB, Anti-Roh' voters and the 'Anti-MB, Pro-Roh' voters coalesce under the 'Anti-MB' banner, the election is likely to operate under an 'MB vs. Anti-MB' frame, leading to the spread of a 'government check' narrative. Conversely, if they align with the 'Pro-MB, Anti-Roh' faction, mediated by the 'judgment of the previous administration' argument, and if 'Pro-MB, Anti-Roh' and 'Anti-MB, Pro-Roh' voters coalesce, a vote concentration similar to 2006 could be replicated. If this alliance does not materialize and at least the sentiment critical of both the current and previous governments does not lean towards either 'MB vs. Pro-Roh,' the incumbent government and ruling party, which already has a support base exceeding 40%, is likely to lead the election process advantageously.

Based on this calculation, the conflict between the Grand National Party, which seeks to block the possibility of an 'Anti-MB alliance' and steer the election towards an 'MB vs. Pro-Roh' structure, and the Democratic Party, which advocates for an 'MB vs. Anti-MB alliance,' is expected to dominate the early stages of the election. However, it is important to note that attempts by some in the opposition to strengthen 'pro-Roh marketing' could provoke a backlash by mobilizing Grand National Party supporters and also stimulate the 'Anti-MB, Anti-Roh' group's aversion to pro-Roh sentiment, thereby weakening and shrinking the anti-MB alliance on their own.

If the government and the ruling party become complacent due to their approval ratings hovering around 50% and succumb to the temptation of unilateral dominance, they risk catalyzing the alliance between the 'Anti-MB, Anti-Roh' camp and the 'Anti-MB, Pro-Roh' camp—whose divisions are deep enough to lead to party fragmentation—thereby inadvertently becoming a catalyst for a 'government check' narrative.

[Table 1] Election Frames and Voter Distribution Based on Cross-Analysis of Judgment of Former and Current Government Administrations: (%)