[Public Opinion Briefing No. 77] MB Approval Rating at 46.3%, Down 2.8%p from Last Month

EAI · Korea Research April Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

MB Approval Rating at 46.3%, Down 2.8%p from Last Month

■ Rally around the flag effect and political negative factors appear to have offset each other during security crisis

[Figure 1] Trend of Presidential Approval Rating

In the April regular survey conducted by EAI and Korea Research on April 24, the presidential approval rating has stalled for two consecutive months, just short of entering the majority support range. Since the Cheonan sinking incident on March 26, national attention has been focused on identifying the truth behind the incident and searching for the missing personnel. Domestically, there have been significant negative developments for the ruling party, including the acquittal of former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook on bribery charges in the first trial on April 9, and the escalating scandal involving prosecutors and sex services recently. The presidential approval rating fell to 46.3%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points compared to the survey on March 27. Considering the margin of statistical error, this cannot be considered a significant change. Generally, the phenomenon of a rise in presidential approval ratings during a severe national crisis, known as the 'rally around the flag effect,' and political negative factors appear to have acted as offsetting factors, resulting in no major change in the presidential approval rating.

[Table 1] Lee Myung-bak Presidential Approval Rating by Social Strata (%)

The pattern of presidential approval by social stratum remains consistent, with higher approval ratings among older individuals, low-income earners, and those with lower educational attainment.

By age group, approval was 28.1% for those in their 20s and 32.5% for those in their 30s, significantly below the overall approval rating of 46.3%. For those in their 40s, it was 44.4%, and for those aged 50 and above, it was 65.8%. By education level, approval was a high 74.9% among those with a junior high school education or less, 50.1% among high school graduates, and 40.5% among college graduates or higher. By income level, approval was 66.0% among respondents with a monthly household income of less than 1 million KRW and 51.2% among those with an income in the 1 million KRW range, indicating higher approval among low-income earners than the overall average. Conversely, approval ratings were relatively lower among middle and high-income earners, with 41.0% among those with an income in the 2 million KRW range, 43.4% among those in the 3 million KRW range, and 44.5% among those with an income of 4 million KRW or more. By region, favorable public opinion towards the president's administration was observed in Daegu/Gyeongbuk at 55.8%, Busan/Gyeongnam/Ulsan at 53.0%, Seoul at 51.3%, and Incheon/Gyeonggi at 45.6%. Meanwhile, critical public opinion towards the president was relatively higher in Daejeon/Chungcheong at 41.2% and Gwangju/Jeolla at 22.9%.

By political orientation, approval ratings were higher among those who identify as conservative (55.7%) and lower among those who identify as progressive (31.5%). Among moderates, who have shown increased favorability towards President Lee's administration since the emergence of pragmatic centrism in 2009, the approval rating was 48.2%, slightly above the overall average. By party support, approval was high among supporters of the Grand National Party (86.6%), indicating strong cohesion within the party's base. Among opposition parties, approval was 44.0% among supporters of the Liberty Forward Party, 22.7% among supporters of the Democratic Labor Party, and 17.0% among supporters of the Democratic Party. Among unaffiliated voters, the approval rating was 37.5%, significantly below the overall average. This suggests that the unaffiliated segment consists of individuals who are disillusioned with the government but have not aligned with any specific opposition party.

■ Han Myeong-sook Emerges as Second Favorite for Next Presidential Election

Park Geun-hye 23.7% > Han Myeong-sook 10.2% > Yoo Si-min 8.8% > Chung Mong-joon 8.0%

In the preference poll for the next presidential candidate (Question: "If tomorrow were the presidential election, who would you vote for among the following?"), former Representative Park Geun-hye remains in the lead at 23.7%, with a notable rise in support for former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook. Her support increased from 4.5% in the February survey to 6.3% in March, and reached 10.2% in the April survey, surpassing the 10% mark for the first time in this regular survey. This contrasts with former Representative Park's approval rating, which has remained stagnant at 25.2% in February, 24.2% in March, and 23.7% in April. Former Gyeonggi Province Governor Yoo Si-min followed at 8.8%, and Grand National Party Chairman Chung Mong-joon at 8.0%. With former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook rising to second place, the race continues to be characterized by a 'one strong candidate, three contenders' dynamic.

Regional Support Base for the 'One Strong Candidate, Three Contenders' Dynamic

Regionally, Representative Park Geun-hye leads in all regions except Honam, with relatively lower support in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Honam, and Gangwon/Jeju, but exceeding the average support in Chungcheong and Yeongnam regions. Grand National Party Chairman Chung Mong-joon, who is expanding his sphere of activity with the local elections, ranked second after former Representative Park in Seoul (11.9%), Chungcheong (13.7%), and Busan/Gyeongnam (10.4%). Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, who was acquitted in the first trial, ranked second in Honam with 15.4% support, trailing Roh Moo-hyun supporter Chung Dong-young who received 16.4%. She ranked third in Busan/Gyeongnam (9.7%) and Seoul (11.7%), regions with relatively strong pro-Roh sentiment, after Representative Park Geun-hye and Chairman Chung Mong-joon, respectively. In Daejeon/Chungcheong, she ranked fourth with 10.7%, and in Daegu/Gyeongbuk, she ranked third with 6.3%. Former Minister Yoo Si-min ranked second in Daegu/Gyeongbuk with 8.7%, behind Representative Park Geun-hye, and second in Gangwon/Jeju with 11.2%. He ranked third in the Gyeongin region (8.6%), third in Honam (10.8%), and third in the Chungcheong region (10.8%). In Seoul, he ranked fifth with 7.7%, and in Busan/Gyeongnam, he ranked fifth with 7.3%, following Representative Park Geun-hye, Chairman Chung Mong-joon, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, and candidate Oh Se-hoon.

[Table 2] Support for Next Presidential Candidates (%)

Weak Cohesion of Grand National Party Supporters and Lee Myung-bak Supporters for Park Geun-hye

Intensified Competition Expected Between Han Myeong-sook and Yoo Si-min Among Democratic Party Supporters and Progressive Supporters

Examining by political orientation, among Lee Myung-bak's supporters, former Representative Park received 27.2% support, followed by Chairman Chung Mong-joon at 13.6%, candidate Oh Se-hoon at 9.0%, and Representative Lee Hoi-chang at 5.2%. Among those who responded negatively, former Representative Park led with 20.2%, with former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook at 15.5% and former Minister Yoo Si-min at 14.8% in pursuit.

By party support, 34.8% of Grand National Party supporters backed former Representative Park Geun-hye, while Chairman Chung Mong-joon received 19.7% support. Candidate Oh Se-hoon ranked next with 10.8%. Among Democratic Party supporters, 20.8% supported former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, currently leading. Former Minister Yoo Si-min garnered 15.0% support, and former Representative Park Geun-hye received 14.5%, demonstrating a significant support base even among Democratic Party supporters. Among unaffiliated voters, who serve as a barometer for political changes, former Representative Park led with 19.6% support. Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook was second with 8.9%, followed by former Minister Yoo Si-min at 7.2% and former Representative Sohn Hak-kyu at 5.0%.

By ideological orientation, among those who identify as conservative, former Representative Park received 28.3% support, followed by Chairman Chung Mong-joon at 12.8% and Liberty Forward Party Chairman Lee Hoi-chang at 6.8%. Among moderates, former Representative Park also ranked first with 23.8% support, with former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook at 9.1% and former Minister Yoo Si-min at 8.8%. Among progressives, former Representative Park held a slight lead with 20.0% support, narrowly ahead of former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook who received 18.4%. Former Minister Yoo Si-min was in pursuit with 15.1%.

In summary, former Representative Park is leading due to a broad support base among both current supporters and opponents. Among the opposition and progressive camps, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, who has garnered significant media attention following her recent acquittal, is emerging and has surpassed former Minister Yoo Si-min, who was previously leading. However, the gap between former Prime Minister Han and former Minister Yoo is not large, suggesting a potential intensification of competition for securing support bases in the upcoming local elections and future political developments.

However, it can be assessed that neither former Representative Park nor the leading opposition figures are fully recognized as representatives of their respective party and ideological bases. While former Representative Park is in a relatively better position, considering her 34.8% support from Grand National Party supporters and 28.3% from conservatives, the attitudes of those supporting other candidates or those whose preferences are not yet clear are likely to be significant variables. Among the opposition, former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook is emerging after lagging behind, and former Minister Yoo Si-min is demonstrating a considerable support base. However, they are only narrowly ahead of each other even among progressives and Democratic Party supporters, and their combined support does not exceed 40%.

[Table 3] Support for Next Presidential Candidates by Social Strata (%) (Unit: %)

Impact of the Cheonan Incident on the Local Elections

What is the impact of the Cheonan sinking incident on the local elections thus far? While the possibility of significant political repercussions cannot be ruled out as the full truth of the incident is revealed, it is difficult to consider this incident a critical event that has fundamentally altered the local election landscape at this point. This assessment is based on (1) the impact of the Cheonan incident on agenda setting, (2) how the public perceives the political gains and losses associated with the Cheonan incident, and (3) actual changes in party support ratings.

■ Impact on Agenda Setting: Changes in Public Priorities for National Administration

Rise in Security and National Unity Issues / Decline in Economic Polarization and Growth Issues

Resolving Economic Polarization (22.8%) and Social Integration (16.2%) Remain Top Priorities

As security issues and public attention have focused on the Cheonan sinking incident, if the security agenda rises to the forefront of the local election campaign, it is generally expected to benefit the conservative Grand National Party. In January, when EAI asked about the top priorities for national administration, public interest was focused on resolving economic polarization and growth, and national unity and improving the quality of life. While 37.2% chose alleviating economic polarization as the top priority, only 21.0% cited economic growth. Those who believed national unity should be the top priority accounted for 13.5%, and improving the quality of life accounted for 10.0%. Political reform was cited by 6.1%, and strengthening international competitiveness by 5.8%. Issues related to inter-Korean relations (3.2%) and national security (1.2%) were mentioned by a minority.

[Table 4] Changes in Public Priorities for National Administration (%)

However, by April 24, nearly a month after the Cheonan incident, significant changes were observed. The proportion of respondents citing the alleviation of economic polarization as the top priority fell to 22.8%, a decrease of 14.4 percentage points from the January survey, but it still accounted for the largest share of responses. In this survey, the response that national unity is important rose by 2.7 percentage points to 16.2%, making it the second most frequent response after alleviating economic polarization. In contrast, the response citing economic growth fell by 6.2 percentage points from the January survey to 14.8%, dropping to third place.

Most notably, the proportion of respondents who considered national security as the top priority for government efforts, which was very low at 1.2% in the previous survey, surged by 10.6 percentage points to 11.8% in the current survey, climbing five ranks. This indicates a significant increase in the perceived importance of national security following the Cheonan incident. Additionally, the proportion of respondents prioritizing political reform rose by 4.2 percentage points to 10.3%, maintaining its previous rank. Those desiring improvement in the quality of life accounted for 9.4%, dropping two ranks. The response favoring improvement in inter-Korean relations also rose by 3.2 percentage points to 6.4%. However, the agenda of strengthening international competitiveness, which the government is actively pursuing, received only 5.6% support, indicating a decline in its perceived priority among the public.

In conclusion, while public opinion is increasingly prioritizing national security and social integration agendas due to the continuous media coverage of the Cheonan incident, overall, public opinion still places greater emphasis on alleviating economic polarization and economic growth. Therefore, although the Cheonan incident has partially strengthened the influence of the security agenda, its impact is not expected to fundamentally alter the agenda structure, as economic agendas continue to hold precedence at this juncture, ahead of the local elections.

■ Impact of the Cheonan Incident on the Local Elections

"No Significant Impact" 52.0%, "Will Benefit the Ruling Party" 19.5%, "Will Benefit the Opposition Party" 20.5%

[Figure 2] Impact of the Cheonan Incident on the Local Elections (%)

The results of asking about the actual impact of the Cheonan sinking incident on the local elections suggest that the incident may not have a direct impact on the upcoming local elections. Above all, the response that there will be no significant impact exceeded half the respondents at 52.0%. The response that it will benefit the ruling party was 19.5%, while the response that it will benefit the opposition party was 20.5%. Among Grand National Party supporters, 61.7% responded that there would be no significant impact, while among Democratic Party supporters, this figure was relatively lower at 45.4%. Among supporters of the president, 59.0% responded that there would be no impact, while among those critical of the president's administration, 45.0% held this view. This indicates that those more favorable to the government and ruling party tend to believe there will be no impact, while those critical and leaning towards the opposition tend to believe there will be an impact. However, even among those who believe there will be an impact, opinions are divided between those who think it will benefit the ruling party and those who think it will benefit the opposition, suggesting a mutually offsetting effect.

■ Party Support Ratings: Grand National Party Marginalized from the Political Center, Democratic Party Also Declines

[Figure 3] Party Support Ratings (%)

Following the Cheonan sinking incident at the end of last month, all of Korean society's attention has been focused on this event, to the extent that even routine political activities have not garnered public interest. While there were exchanges between the ruling and opposition parties regarding the Cheonan incident, given the sensitivity of the issue, hasty political attacks carried the risk of backlash. Consequently, the political confrontations between parties were not particularly intense, and a wait-and-see attitude prevailed. Despite the upcoming local elections, party primaries are only now beginning to intensify, with candidate outlines starting to emerge.

While both the ruling Grand National Party and the main opposition Democratic Party have been sidelined from the political center, their support ratings have declined concurrently. The Grand National Party, which received 34.5% support in the survey on March 27, saw its support drop to 29.7% in the current survey, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points. The Democratic Party also saw its support fall from 23.1% last month to 17.6%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points. In contrast, no significant changes were observed among minor parties, and the proportion of unaffiliated voters slightly increased from 24.4% to 27.3%. Consequently, the concurrent decline in support for both major parties does not appear to have fundamentally altered the balance of party support, which was previously dominated by the Grand National Party.■.