[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 76-2] G2 International Reputation Analysis by Country / The Current State and Policy Tasks of South Korea's Soft Power

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 76] BBC · GlobeScan · Maeil Business Newspaper · EAI

2010 Global Poll of 28 Countries: "Soft Power Competition and the Challenges of South Korea's Charming Diplomacy"

1. 2010 World Issues Survey / Soft Power of 17 Powerful Nations as Seen Through the Eyes of the World

2. G2 International Reputation Analysis by Country / The Current State and Policy Tasks of South Korea's Soft Power

G2 International Reputation Analysis by Country: The United States Takes the Lead Following Obama's Emergence

United States Improves Image in Europe, Asian Allies, and Non-Islamic Countries

As Doug Miller, President of GlobeScan, analyzes, "Currently, global public opinion is more strongly positive towards the United States than at any time since the Second Iraq War. While it still falls short of the favorable assessments for major European powers like Germany, the UK, and France, it is certain that expectations and positive perceptions of American international leadership have grown recently."

The improvement in the United States' international image appears to be the result of a spread of favorable public opinion, particularly among traditional European allies, advanced Asian nations, and non-Islamic countries, following the advent of the Obama administration. Survey results from 2005 to 2009 showed a deterioration in America's international reputation, with critical public opinion spreading even among traditional European allies like the UK, Germany, and France, as well as Asian allies like South Korea and Japan, regarding its unilateralist foreign policy.

However, perceptions among allies seem to have shifted during the Obama administration, which clearly articulated a critical stance towards the unilateralist foreign policies of the previous Bush administration. In the 2010 survey, positive assessments of the United States exceeded negative ones in Portugal (57%), Italy (56%), the UK (48%), France (45%), and Spain (40%). Germany was the sole exception, with positive assessments (39%) falling short of negative ones (47%).

In other words, as Steven Kull, Director of the Program on International Policy Attitude (PIPA) at the University of Maryland, points out, "The survey results indicate that while China's international image has stagnated, the United States is gaining ground in the soft power competition with China. This demonstrates that the so-called Obama effect is indeed at play, and while a solid foundation of favorable attitudes towards the United States in the international community has not yet been established, it is undeniable that the negative image of the United States is being mitigated."

Strong in China, Russia, and Islamic Countries, but Weak in Europe

Meanwhile, China's reputation surpasses that of the United States in some Asian Muslim countries like Pakistan (56%) and Indonesia (43%), as well as Middle Eastern Muslim countries like Egypt (64%). In Europe, there were many favorable assessments of China's international leadership in countries like Russia (42%). Conversely, European resistance to China's soft power is negatively impacting its strengthening. In other words, while China's soft power is effective in certain regions of developing countries, it is a half-power with limitations, failing to gain traction elsewhere.

While 40% of respondents in the UK held a favorable view of China, critical public opinion was prevalent in Portugal (25%), France (24%), Spain (22%), Germany (20%), and Italy (14%), with favorable ratings falling significantly below 30%. In these European countries, which are economically advanced and have long histories of democratic systems, the Chinese government's authoritarian rule and human rights abuses in Tibet appear to have strengthened negative sentiment towards China.

[Figure 1] International Reputation of the United States in 27 Countries (%) [Figure 2] International Reputation of China in 27 Countries (%)

Mixed Views in Africa and Latin America, Negative Views Towards Both in Australia/Germany/Mexico

While favorable public opinion towards the United States is increasing in most Western countries, and neutral assessments of China are dominant, Germany and Australia showed negative public opinion towards both the US and China. In Germany, positive assessments of the US were 39% and negative assessments were 47%, indicating that public opinion, which had soured during the Bush administration, had not fully recovered. Regarding China, assessments were even more negative, with positive ratings at 20% and negative opinions reaching a substantial 71%. Similarly, in Australia, positive assessments of the US were 37% and positive assessments of China were 36%, indicating a lukewarm response towards both G2 nations.

Meanwhile, in Latin American countries (excluding Mexico) and African nations, which are both targets of significant attention from the US and China, generally over 60% expressed high support for both countries. This appears to be a product of the US and China's aid diplomacy towards Africa. In Mexico, positive sentiment towards the US was 13% and towards China was 32%, with a relatively higher proportion favoring China, but still falling far short of a majority, indicating a cold response towards both nations, similar to Australia and Germany.

The US Should Focus on Public Diplomacy Towards Islamic Countries, China on Human Rights Diplomacy Towards Europe

Synthesizing the analysis, the United States would benefit from strengthening public diplomacy targeting the Islamic world in the Middle East and Asia. The Obama administration's departure from pro-Israel policies in the Middle East conflict and its consistent expression of respect for and coexistence with Islamic culture, as announced shortly after taking office, have contributed to the most favorable global public opinion since 2005. While the repercussions of the previous administration's wars and unilateralist foreign policies still linger, leading to a lag compared to other developed nations like those in Europe, there is potential for further improvement through multilateral cooperation and a policy of tolerance.

China needs to gain recognition for a more attractive and supportive leadership in the international community, given its rapid economic growth, military expansion, and domestic human rights issues, which are stimulating concerns and vigilance, particularly in the West and non-Islamic nations. To this end, China needs to consider more proactive measures to alleviate concerns about its hegemony among neighboring countries and to mitigate the strong skepticism in Western Europe regarding its human rights policies. Despite the lingering effects of the global financial crisis, China's rapid growth has propelled it to the G2 level in terms of hard power. However, one of the core reasons why this economic growth has not translated into enhanced soft power appears to be the authoritarian nature of its political system and the resulting repressive human rights policies.

The Current State and Policy Tasks of South Korea's Soft Power

South Korea's Presence is Insufficient; Four Out of Ten People Say They "Don't Know" About South Korea's International Role

As briefly examined earlier, the survey results show that among the 28 countries surveyed (excluding South Korea and Thailand), 32% of respondents evaluated South Korea's international role positively, while 29% evaluated it negatively, indicating a close balance. While this is relatively better than the riskier countries like Israel, Pakistan, Iran, and North Korea, where positive responses were below 20% among the 17 major nations, the fact that 39% responded 'don't know, deferred, or neutral' indicates that South Korea's presence in the international community remains marginal. Examining public opinion by country provides insights that should be considered for recognizing the current state of South Korea's external reputation and for implementing effective soft power diplomacy.

Mixed Reactions in Asia, Indifference in Europe, Low Awareness in BRICS

China 57%, Philippines 50%, US 46% "Positive"; India 60%, Japan 55%, Russia 49% "Don't Know"

Germany 53%, France 45% "Negative towards South Korea"

First, even within Asia, there is not a high level of favorable perception regarding South Korea's international standing. Among Asian countries, China (57%), the Philippines (50%), and Indonesia (43%) showed relatively positive evaluations, followed by Japan (36%), Australia (35%), Thailand (23%), Azerbaijan (19%), and Pakistan (13%). Meanwhile, responses of 'don't know' regarding South Korea's international role were also high in Asian countries. Pakistan (70%), Azerbaijan (63%), India (60%), and Japan (55%) responded that they were unsure about South Korea's international role. This suggests the need to enhance international recognition even among neighboring Asian countries.

Notably, European countries were very unenthusiastic in their assessments of South Korea's international leadership. Ratings were 30% in France, 29% in the UK, 28% in Russia/Germany, and 23% each in Portugal/Italy, and 22% in Spain. Negative assessments were high in Germany (53%), Italy and Spain (46% each), and France (45%). In the UK (33%), Portugal (27%), and Russia (23%), negative responses were low, but 'don't know' responses were high. Specifically, in Portugal and Russia, 50% and 49% respectively responded neutrally or expressed uncertainty about South Korea's international role.

In the Americas, perceptions of South Korea are relatively mixed. In the United States, South Korea's primary ally, positive evaluations were 46%, negative evaluations 28%, and 'don't know/deferred' 26%. This is more favorable than the overall average of 32%. However, considering the special alliance relationship maintained for over half a century, this is not a satisfactory figure. In Canada, positive responses were 37%, negative responses 30%, and 'don't know' responses 33%.

Meanwhile, Latin America showed a relatively higher proportion of favorable public opinion. Particularly in Chile, with which South Korea signed its first FTA, positive public opinion was 45% and negative opinion was only 16%. In Mexico and five other Latin American countries, positive public opinion also outweighed negative opinion. However, in Brazil, negative opinions (43%) outnumbered positive opinions (38%). Further research and countermeasures are needed to understand the impact of FTAs on national reputation and the reasons for more negative public opinion towards South Korea in Brazil.

[Figure 3] International Reputation of South Korea in 26 Countries (%)

South Korea's Soft Power Diplomacy Has a Long Way to Go; Long-Term Vision and Strategy Formulation are Paramount

It is known that public opinion changes are slower for foreign policy compared to domestic policy, even within governments. Fundamentally, foreign policy requires greater emphasis on expert information and a high degree of national responsibility, meaning it takes more time and strategic effort for government policies to be recognized by the general public. From the perspective of the general public, these are 'hard issue' areas where access to information and judgment are difficult (Pollock et al. 1993).

While it is true that the survey, conducted from late November 2009 to mid-February 2010, does not reflect the South Korean government's diplomatic achievements since then, the fact that a nation's reputation is difficult to change in a short period without the aid of major events like the Olympics suggests that South Korea's soft power diplomacy has a long road ahead. Furthermore, efforts must be made to establish a long-term vision and strategy, and to build political and social consensus, to ensure consistent soft power diplomatic policies across different administrations.

Implications to Consider When Formulating Strategy

Based on these survey results, the following points should be considered in the strategy formulation process. First, attention must be paid to the generally low level of awareness regarding South Korea's international role. In fact, South Korea has, to some extent, leveraged its status as a developing or less developed nation to avoid the burden of international responsibilities and protect its domestic industries, rather than actively engaging on the international stage. By bearing fewer burdens and responsibilities towards the international community, opportunities to foster recognition of South Korea's international standing and leadership among the global community have been forgone. The most fundamental way to increase international recognition is to enhance one's role and responsibilities within the international community.

Second, it is necessary to examine whether South Korea's foreign policy has been overly confined within the framework of the ROK-US alliance or China diplomacy. The EU is the second-largest trading partner after China, and economic cooperation has accelerated, as evidenced by the signing of the ROK-EU FTA in 2009. However, despite the growing importance of ROK-Europe relations in economic terms, it is questionable whether political, diplomatic, and socio-cultural exchanges and cooperation have kept pace. This survey reveals that European perceptions of South Korea are more serious than anticipated. The ROK-US alliance continues to play a crucial role in South Korea's security and economic development and will likely remain a fundamental pillar of South Korean diplomacy for a considerable period. The same applies to relations with China. However, in this era of transformation, where diverse actors create complex networks on the international stage following the end of the Cold War, if our diplomatic relations are to also form more complex networks, our room for maneuver should not be limited to G2 diplomacy (Ha Young-sun 2006).

Third, there is a need for a rediscovery of Asia and proactive Asian diplomacy based on this. Amidst changing domestic and international environments, the expectation that Asia will emerge as the central region of the future world order is no longer novel. Consequently, discussions on the vision and strategy for an East Asian community are also gaining momentum. Except for some countries like China and the Philippines, South Korea's international presence in the Asian region is weak, or there are a significant number of negative evaluations. It is time to reflect on whether South Korea, in its pursuit of catching up with developed nations, has relegated the promotion of diplomatic relations and public diplomacy targeting Asian countries to a lower priority■.