[Public Opinion Briefing No. 75] D-60: Characteristics of the June 2 Local Elections as Seen Through Public Opinion

Planned by EAI and Hankook Research <Local Elections D-60>

According to the results of a regular public opinion poll conducted by EAI, JoongAng Sunday, and Hankook Research on March 27, the 2010 local elections scheduled for June 2 are expected to unfold differently from the local elections four years prior. In the 2006 local elections, the election was characterized by a confrontation between the then-opposition Grand National Party's (GNP) call for a referendum on the participatory government and the then-ruling Uri Party's call for the replacement of corrupt local power. The outcome, however, was a victory for the GNP, with the call for a referendum on the participatory government dominating the election landscape from start to finish. This trend in public opinion led to the election of President Lee Myung-bak in 2007, who campaigned on being an "economic president," and the GNP securing a majority in the National Assembly in the 2008 general elections. Will this concentration of votes be repeated? With 60 days remaining until the 2010 June 2 local elections, a comparison of the current party support distribution with that of the 2006 local elections reveals several commonalities and differences.

(1) Comparison of the 2010 and 2006 Election Landscapes

High MB Approval Rating, GNP Dominance with Two-Party Competition Maintained, Deepening Party Fragmentation

49.1% MB Approval Rating

The current high approval rating for President Lee Myung-bak, nearing 50%, is a significant variable in predicting the direction of these local elections. While there is room for fluctuation with over two months left until the election, a poll conducted by EAI in April 2006 showed President Roh Moo-hyun's approval rating at only 33.6% during the local elections. In contrast, President Lee Myung-bak received a positive evaluation of 49.1% in the regular poll conducted by EAI and Hankook Research on March 27, 2010. High public approval for a president's performance makes it difficult to stimulate a desire for checks and balances on the administration and to spread a narrative of judgment on the government. Furthermore, if the current support base solidifies and expands its reach, it could serve as an opportunity to solidify the foundation for stable governance in the latter half of the term by using the local election victory as a mandate for the administration. As will be discussed in detail later, the GNP's shift from a defensive to an aggressive election strategy, framing themselves as proponents of economic growth and the opposition as obstructors of economic progress, appears to be influenced by the fact that they have secured a relatively high approval rating for the administration in its second or third year, unlike previous governments.

[Figure 1] Approval Ratings of Former President Roh in April 2006 and President Lee in March 2010 (%)

Note) Don't know/No response not shown.

Two-Party Competition Landscape Dominated by the GNP

The role of party factors in major Korean elections has been growing since the 2006 local elections (see Lee Nae-young et al. 2006; Lee Nae-young 2007). Current party support rates serve as a basic starting point for predicting this election. The Grand National Party, which leads by more than 10%p in current party support rates, is in a favorable position, while the Democratic Party leads among the opposition parties.

First, similar to the 2006 elections, the basic structure is that the GNP maintains a lead in party support, with a two-party competition between the GNP and the Democratic Party (formerly Uri Party in 2006), and minor parties acting as variables in specific regions. Depending on the region, parties such as the Liberty Forward Party (Grand National Party in 2006), the People's Participation Party, the Democratic Labor Party, and the New Progressive Party (Democratic Party members who remained after the Uri Party's formation in 2006) are acting as variables.

In the Dong-A Ilbo poll conducted nationwide on May 20-21, 2006, the GNP garnered 39.2%, Uri Party 22.4%, Democratic Labor Party 12.8%, former Democratic Party 5.0%, Grand National Party 0.7%, and independents 18.7%. In the current March 2010 poll, the GNP received 34.5%, the Democratic Party 23.1%, the Democratic Labor Party 4.9%, the Future Hope Alliance (Pro-Park Alliance) 2.5%, the New Progressive Party 2.2%, the Liberty Forward Party 1.5%, the People's Participation Party 1.5%, and the Creative Korea Party 0.4%. Compared to 2006, the support for existing parties has generally remained stable, suggesting that the competitive landscape between the GNP and the Democratic Party, with the GNP in the lead, will likely continue. However, a significant characteristic is the shift in roles: in 2006, the GNP was on the offensive and Uri Party on the defensive, whereas in the current local elections, the roles have been reversed.

[Figure 2] Comparison of Party Support Ratings Immediately Before the 2006 and 2010 Local Elections (%)

Notes) Dong-A Ilbo poll results from May 20-21, 2006 (N=8000), EAI regular poll data from March 2010 (Party Support).

Changes in Regional Bases of the Two Major Parties

Regionally, the Democratic Party leads the GNP in Chungcheong and Honam, while the GNP holds a significant lead in the Seoul and Gyeongin metropolitan areas and the Yeongnam regions (TK/PK). In terms of party support, the GNP is expected to lead in all regions except Chungcheong and Honam.

In the 2006 poll, the GNP significantly led the Democratic Party in all regions except Honam. The metropolitan area is particularly noteworthy. The electoral process in the metropolitan area not only has a considerable impact on the overall election landscape but also occupies a very important position in the inter-party competition for future power. While the metropolitan area, along with Honam and Chungcheong, served as the regional base for the participatory government in the 16th presidential election in 2002 and the 17th general election in 2004, it shifted its support to the GNP following the administrative capital relocation controversy and the 2006 local elections. The GNP's dominance in the metropolitan area continues to this day.

The TK and PK regions are core regional bases for the GNP. The TK region is particularly noteworthy. Although the GNP's support base remains strong, it was the region where resentment over perceived discrimination in the Sejong City revision process was most strongly expressed. The decrease in the GNP's support rating from 51.6% to 42.9% in this region, along with an increase in the proportion of undecided voters, suggests an increase in the number of voters withholding their support for the GNP compared to 2006. In the PK region, the support rating is similar to 2006, at 44.5% compared to 47.4%.

The current regional base for the opposition is the Chungcheong and Honam regions. In the Chungcheong region, the GNP led with 35.2% and Uri Party with 26.2% in 2006, but as of 2010, the situation has reversed, with the GNP at 14.8% and the Democratic Party at 28.4%. In the Honam region, while votes were split in the 2006 poll between Uri Party (the predecessor of the current Democratic Party) and the Democratic Party due to their split, currently 51.8% support the Democratic Party.

However, the significant number of undecided voters in the Chungcheong and TK regions is noteworthy. Both regions have many local voters dissatisfied with the regional economy, and they were particularly prominent in the debate over the Sejong City revision, where the argument of reverse discrimination emerged. In these regions, the GNP's support is 42.9%, slightly above the average. However, with the undecided voter segment at 39.3%, nearing 40%, it suggests that voter sentiment may be fluid during the election campaign.

[Table 1] Regional Party Support in March 2010 (March 27, 2010)

[Table 2] Regional Party Support in May 2006 (Dong-A Ilbo, May 20-21, 2006)

Deepening Party Fragmentation, Increasing Importance of Inter-Party Electoral Alliances

Compared to 2006, party fragmentation has deepened. In 2006, conservative parties were divided between the GNP and the Chungcheong-based Grand National Party, while the ruling party was split between Uri Party and the Democratic Party, with the progressive Democratic Labor Party establishing its own party base.

Currently, conservative parties are divided among the GNP, the Liberty Forward Party, the Future Hope Alliance (Pro-Park Alliance), and the People's Grand National Union, recently declared by former governor Shim Dae-pyung. Meanwhile, the former ruling camp is also fragmented into the Democratic Party, the People's Participation Party founded in January by the pro-Roh faction, and the Peace Democratic Party centered around Representative Han Hwa-gap, who recently declared its formation in the name of inheriting the spirit of the traditional DJP. The progressive camp also saw a split between the Democratic Labor Party and the New Progressive Party before last year's general elections. However, this fragmentation of parties appears to be less about expanding the ideologies or policy-represented strata pursued by the parties, and more a result of power struggles and the division of shares within the regional and class bases of the existing major parties ahead of the elections.

As party fragmentation intensifies, the importance of inter-party electoral alliances and cooperation has become greater than ever. The ruling camp recently completed a merger between the Future Hope Alliance and the GNP after discussions about a merger with the People's Grand National Union. The opposition has also been discussing a unified candidacy among opposition parties since the beginning of the year. Although the success of candidate unification remains uncertain due to differences in interests among parties, the continued pursuit of electoral alliance discussions seems inevitable in the context of deepening party fragmentation.

(2) Party Supporter Mobilization as Seen Through Election Interest Levels

Election Interest Levels: Metropolitan Mayor Elections 56.4%, Local Mayor Elections 57.4%, Superintendent of Education Elections 47.1%

[Figure 3] Election Interest Levels by Election Unit (%)

Note) Don't know/No response regarding candidate unification not shown.

Election interest is one of the key factors determining voters' active participation in the election process and their voting behavior (Seo Hyun-jin, 2007). This survey asked voters about their interest in different types of elections. The results showed that 56.4% expressed interest in metropolitan mayor elections and 57.4% in local mayor elections, which were similar. However, only 47.1% expressed interest in superintendent of education elections, falling short of half.

Election Interest - GNP Supporters 63.1%, Democratic Party Supporters 59.7%

Examining the interest levels in metropolitan mayor elections, which are the focus of the local elections, among supporters of different parties reveals that GNP and Democratic Party supporters show higher interest than supporters of the Liberty Forward Party and the Democratic Labor Party. Among GNP supporters, 63.1% expressed interest in the election, and among Democratic Party supporters, 59.7% did. In contrast, only 53.7% of Liberty Forward Party supporters, 46.3% of Democratic Labor Party supporters, and 36.4% of Creative Korea Party supporters showed interest. This indicates that the smaller the party, the lower the election interest. Parties with a high level of election interest among their supporters can expect active participation and support, and these individuals are more likely to vote. This serves as an indicator for inferring the mobilization level of party supporters. The high election interest among GNP and Democratic Party supporters suggests that the election will likely be centered around the competition between these two parties in terms of campaign activities and actual voting.

[Figure 4] Metropolitan Mayor Election Interest by Party Support

However, interest in the election is very high among supporters of the New Progressive Party and the newly formed People's Participation Party (80.7% of a total of 18 New Progressive Party supporters and 92.3% of a total of 12 People's Participation Party supporters). While these supporters show high election interest, their relatively small numbers (2.2% for the New Progressive Party and 1.5% for the People's Participation Party) mean their impact on the overall election landscape will be very limited, except in some specific regions. This high interest may be attributed to these parties fielding prominent candidates in key battlegrounds, such as the metropolitan areas (No Hoe-chan for Seoul Mayor and Sim Sang-jung for Gyeonggi Governor from the New Progressive Party; Yoo Si-min for Gyeonggi Governor from the People's Participation Party).

(3) Cynicism and Indifference of Undecided Voters

Election Interest of Undecided Voters: 40.2%, Serious Indifference and Cynicism Towards Key Campaign Issues of Both Parties

As in every election, the voting behavior of undecided voters significantly influences the outcome. Undecided voters not only show a high level of indifference towards the election but also do not unilaterally favor either the ruling or opposition party's stance on key election issues. As many as 59.8% of respondents stated they were not interested in the metropolitan mayor elections. Regarding the local elections, 49.0% believe the election is about choosing local leaders for regional development, rather than a mid-term evaluation of the government (38.3%). Only 8.2% believe in supporting the ruling party for national stability, while 27.2% believe in voting for the opposition to check the government. However, 64.6% responded with "don't know," indicating extreme indifference and cynicism. Furthermore, 40.0% agreed with the idea of a unified opposition candidacy, while 45.6% disagreed. The election strategies considered important by the parties appear to be distant from the perceptions of undecided voters, making it difficult to garner their interest and participation under the current electoral structure. Strategic responses from the parties are needed at this juncture.

[Figure 5] Election Interest and Political Attitudes of Undecided Voters

(4) Election Competition Outlook: 2006 "Referendum on Government" Vote Concentration, 2010 "Must Wait Until the End"

"Election Outcome is Obvious" 30.2% vs. "Must Wait Until Voting Day" 65.6%

Reflecting the complex interplay of various variables, voters are not easily predicting the outcome of these local elections. Only 30.2% believe the election outcome is obvious, while 65.6% believe it will be a close race until election day. Among GNP supporters, 65.0% responded that it will be a close race until voting day, as did 72.6% of Democratic Party supporters and 64.6% of undecided voters. Overall, no party's supporters seem to be confidently optimistic about the election prospects. While it is clear that the GNP starts from a significantly advantageous position based on the party support distribution, there are still many important electoral variables remaining.

[Figure 6] Prediction of Metropolitan Government Election Landscape