[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 69-1] Public Opinion on the MB Administration's Top 3 National Tasks in its Third Year

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 69] EAI · Maeil Business Newspaper New Year Special Project (MB Administration's National Tasks and Prospects in its Third Year)

1. Public Opinion on the MB Administration's Top 3 National Tasks in its Third Year

2. President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating: 44.3%

Public Opinion on the MB Administration's Top 3 National Tasks in its Third Year

"Mitigating Polarization 37.2%․ Economic Growth 21.0%․ National Integration 13.5% in order (順)"

Regarding the top national tasks for the government entering its third year, 37.2% of the public cited the mitigation of economic polarization as the most important. Economic growth followed with 21.0%. National integration and improving the quality of life were cited by 13.5% and 10.0%, respectively. Other policy priorities such as political reform (6.2%), strengthening international competitiveness (5.8%), and improving inter-Korean relations (3.2%) received single-digit support. This conveys a message to focus on revitalizing the economy with polarization reduction and growth as dual pillars, while also striving for social integration.

In a survey conducted in February 2009, during the second year of the administration, economic polarization was cited by 33.9%, economic growth by 26.6%, and national integration by 13.9%, also ranking as the top 3 tasks. Compared to a year prior, the demand for polarization reduction has increased, while the demand for economic growth has decreased. Despite optimistic projections for various macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth in 2010, concerns about job losses and income reduction are growing among the middle and lower-income classes, reflecting public distrust in jobless growth.

These are the results of a national public opinion survey conducted by the East Asia Institute (EAI: Director Lee Sook-jong) and Maeil Business Newspaper from January 11-12, targeting 1,000 adults nationwide. The survey, conducted via telephone interview, has a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level. Korea Research was responsible for the fieldwork.

[Figure 1] Top National Tasks (%)

Weakening Consensus on "Growth, ROK-US Alliance First": Progressive vs. Conservative Stance Tightens

- Distribution 48.5% vs. Growth 49.4%, a decrease of 8.3%p from 57.7% prioritizing economic growth a year ago

- Support for strengthening the ROK-US alliance decreases from 43.7% a year ago to 34.7% (a decrease of 9.0%p)

Since the US-originated financial crisis spread globally in the latter half of 2008, South Korea has garnered domestic and international attention for its rapid economic recovery, to the extent that it has begun preparing for an exit strategy. While factors such as increased government spending, monetary policy based on low interest rates, and corporate self-help efforts have been significant contributors to this economic recovery, public opinion, which was supportive of both economic and social stability, also played a role.

However, this survey indicates that concerns over social polarization and jobless growth have intensified this year, leading to a resurgence of voices advocating for distribution and a weakening of support for the stability-oriented ideological line centered on the ROK-US alliance. This suggests a widening gap between progressive and conservative stances, foreshadowing increased potential for ideological conflict.

Indeed, in 2009, volatile issues such as the Yongsan incident, the media law dispute, and the passing of two former presidents occurred domestically, and factors like North Korea's Taepodong missile test and second nuclear test posed significant security concerns. However, these did not escalate into the worst possible chaos or instability. This contrasts sharply with the first year of President Lee Myung-bak's administration, when the candlelight protests over US beef imports persisted for over six months, raising concerns about governmental paralysis. Had these issues escalated into ideological conflicts to the extent of fearing governmental paralysis, as they did in the first year, it would have been difficult to be optimistic about the current rapid economic recovery. The primary factor is analyzed to be the establishment of a social consensus prioritizing growth and security under the special circumstances of an economic crisis.

Specifically, in EAI's February 2009 survey conducted immediately after the economic crisis, public sentiment favored prioritizing growth over personal gain and the practical benefits of alliances over the rhetoric of self-reliant diplomacy when addressing key ideological conflicts in our society, such as distribution versus growth and self-reliance versus alliance. In the distribution versus growth debate, the February 2009 survey showed 41.5% favoring distribution and 57.7% favoring economic growth, thus siding with the government's pro-growth stance. Regarding the debate between self-reliant diplomacy and the ROK-US alliance, which had emerged as a major conflict point both domestically and in ROK-US relations during the participatory government, only 29.9% supported self-reliant diplomacy and 25.9% held a moderate stance, while 43.7% favored strengthening the ROK-US alliance.

However, this survey reveals that the social support base for prioritizing growth and alliances, which represents the security-conscious conservative sentiment in South Korean society, is weakening. The proportion favoring distribution has risen by 7.0 percentage points to 48.5%, while the proportion favoring growth has decreased by 8.3 percentage points to 49.3%, resulting in a near-even split. For the government, which is contemplating an exit strategy, the increasing public demand for welfare and distribution, in contrast to last year's limited options for government spending or low-interest rate policies, is expected to be the biggest challenge in economic policy management this year.

In terms of security issues, the proportion supporting self-reliant diplomacy remains largely unchanged at 30.8% compared to last year. However, support for strengthening the alliance has decreased by nearly 9 percentage points from 43.7% to 34.7%, indicating a similarly balanced stance between self-reliance and alliance. As the social consensus favoring growth and alliance-based security, which underpinned the economic recovery in 2009, weakens, political and ideological conflicts are likely to intensify in 2010, potentially triggered by issues such as the Sejong City dispute and local elections. The conflict management capabilities of the government and civil society will be put to the test.

[Figure 2] Comparison of Perceptions on Distribution and Growth (%)

* "Don't know/No answer" not shown

[Figure 3] Preference for Desired ROK-US Relations (%)