Public Opinion Briefing 67-1: Analysis of Presidential Approval Ratings - MB Concludes 2009 with 44.1% Approval Rating and Upward Trend

Public Opinion Briefing No. 67: Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. MB Concludes Term with Upward Approval Trend: 44.1% Positive Evaluation, Up 4.9%p from Previous Month

2. Party Support: Grand National Party 28.1% / Regarding the investigation of former Prime Minister Han, 48.7% believe 'Political Intentions Involved'

Presidential Approval Rating Reverses Decline for Two Consecutive Months, Easing Conflicts over Sejong City, etc.

September 44.5% → October 41.8% → November 39.2% → 44.1%

In the final regular survey of the year, conducted on December 19th, President Lee Myung-bak concluded the year with an approval rating of 44.1% (9.5% strongly approving, 34.6% generally approving), reversing the downward trend in approval ratings observed for two consecutive months since September. Negative evaluations stood at 52.8% (34.1% not doing well, 18.7% not doing well at all), with 3.1% undecided or refusing to answer. These findings are from the December regular public opinion barometer survey conducted by the East Asia Institute and Korea Research on December 19th. The survey involved 800 adult men and women nationwide via telephone, with a margin of error of ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level (response rate 13.8%).

[Figure 1] Changes in President Lee Myung-bak's National Approval Rating (%)

Surveys from March 2008 to January 2009 were compiled from media reports, not from EAI/Korea Research's own surveys.

[Year-End Review of Presidential Approval Ratings in Second Year of Term] 2009 National Approval Management Improved Compared to First Year of Term

Resolved Three Major Crises: Economic Crisis, North Korean Security Concerns, and Internal Strife

Centrist Pragmatism: The Driving Force Behind Rising Approval Ratings

As shown in [Figure 1], examining the trend of President Lee Myung-bak's national approval rating throughout 2009 reveals that despite repeated sharp declines due to various political, social, and economic uncertainties, there were considerable efforts to secure public support, yielding significant results compared to the previous year. The initial high approval rating of 57.4% at the beginning of his term in March 2008 plummeted to the 10% range during the candlelight vigils in May, but it has steadily maintained the 30% range since the end of the candlelight protests.

This year also saw significant challenges, including the 'economic crisis' that swept the globe in the latter half of the previous year, 'North Korean security concerns' such as the rocket launch (April) and the second nuclear test (June), and the Third Battle of Yeonpyeong (November), as well as intensified internal strife stemming from the deaths of two former presidents (May, August) and issues like the media legislation (June), Sejong City (October-November), and the Four Major Rivers Project (November-December). However, by adopting a centrist pragmatic approach, the administration achieved a degree of success in managing and resolving these crises, concluding 2009 with an approval rating in the mid-40% range. Unlike the previous year, when the rating remained in the low 30% range following the candlelight protests, this year saw the rating maintained in the high 30% to mid-40% range after the period of mourning for former President Roh, suggesting an improvement in the government's national management capabilities compared to the first year of its term.

While the controversies surrounding Sejong City and the Four Major Rivers Project, which served as flashpoints for political and social conflict, have not entirely disappeared, the core factor behind the reversal in approval ratings appears to be the shift towards a lull in intense political and social conflict, initiated by dialogues with President Lee Myung-bak. After reaching a peak of 44.5% in the survey on September 25th, the rating slightly declined to 41.8% in the October 24th survey and fell back into the 30% range to 39.2% in the November survey. During this period, issues that sharply divided stakeholders, such as Sejong City and the Four Major Rivers Project, emerged prominently, sparked by various scandals involving presidential staff and the confirmation hearing of the new Prime Minister, Chung Un-chan.

However, the strategy of apologizing for the Sejong City pledge and persuading the public to wait for a revised plan through dialogues with the people, coupled with a renewed emphasis on engaging with ordinary citizens after a brief pause, proved effective in shedding the image of representing vested interests and acting unilaterally, which had been frequent criticisms of President Lee Myung-bak since his inauguration. Additionally, the early containment of concerns about a second economic crisis triggered by Dubai's default declaration in late November, and the favorable external assessments of the South Korean economy for the upcoming year, also played a significant role in the approval rating reversal.

Approval Ratings Increased Among Both Supporters and Opponents; Centrist Group Remains Observant

As external factors such as political and social conflicts, economic crises, and inter-Korean relations entered a lull, approval ratings improved among both the supportive and opposing demographics that had previously experienced a decline. In the December survey, the centrist group maintained a similar level of approval for the President as the previous month (40.7% vs. 41.8%), showing no significant change and maintaining an observant stance. However, the conservative bloc, considered the core support base, saw a 10.5%p increase to 57.0%, and the progressive bloc, the opposing demographic, also recorded an 8.9%p increase from the previous month to 34.8%.

[Figure 2] Changes in National Approval Ratings by Ideological Inclination: July-December (%)

Examining the President's approval ratings by region, the TK region, the largest support base, showed a high approval rating of 65.0%, an increase of 6.0%p from the previous month. The PK region, which had fallen to around 32.5% in the previous month's survey, saw an increase of 13.8%p to 46.3%. The recent visible moves towards integration between the Grand National Party and the Pro-Park Geun-hye United Party, following intensified conflict between pro-Lee and pro-Park factions over the Sejong City issue, appear to have strengthened the cohesion of the ruling party's support base.

Meanwhile, the Seoul metropolitan area maintained approval ratings at the national average level (Seoul 46.8%, Incheon/Gyeonggi 43.6%). Conversely, an upward trend in approval ratings was also observed in the Daejeon/Chungcheong region and the Honam region, where opposition to President Lee Myung-bak is strong. In the Chungcheong region, which has been a focal point of the current political situation, the approval rating increased by 6.0%p to 37.9% from 31.9% in the previous month's survey. In the Honam region, approval rose by 7.4%p from 16.7% last month to 24.1%. While caution is needed in interpretation considering the increases are within the margin of error, it is certain that the sharp downward trend in approval ratings observed since last month has been halted.

By age group, those aged 50 and above showed an approval rating of 61.9%, an increase of 7.2%p from the previous month. In the 20s, approval was 27.7%; in the 30s, 31.4%; and in the 40s, 44.1% positively evaluated the President's national administration. Approval among the 20s, which stood at 20.0% last month, recovered by approximately 7.7%p, while the 30s and 40s showed similar or slightly increased approval ratings compared to the previous month. While the pattern of younger demographics being the primary opposition and older demographics (50+) forming the support base remains unchanged, the increase in approval ratings among both the supportive and critical demographics compared to the previous month is noteworthy.

By income level, households with a monthly income of less than 1 million KRW showed a high proportion of favorable evaluations (48.8%), as did those with incomes between 1 to 2 million KRW (49.9%). For incomes between 2 to 3 million KRW, approval was 43.9%, and for high-income earners (over 4 million KRW), it was 41.7%. The lowest approval rating was recorded among those with incomes between 3 to 4 million KRW, at 34.7%. By education level, those with middle school education or less, who showed a marked decline in approval ratings in the November survey, recorded a high approval rating of 56.3%, an increase of 11.6%p. For high school graduates, approval was 48.0%, similar to the previous month. Even among those with college degrees or higher, who have shown strong opposition, approval increased by 4.5%p to 37.5%. By party support, 78.8% of Grand National Party supporters positively evaluated the President's national administration, demonstrating strong cohesion. Among Democratic Party supporters, approval increased by 6.8%p to 22.3%, and among unaffiliated voters, who have weaker political affiliations, approval also increased by 6.8%p to 35.8%.

[Table 1] Changes in Presidential Support Base Compared to Previous Month (%)

Note: The margin of error for a sample of 800 is ±3.5%. For smaller subgroups, the margin of error increases significantly (e.g., ±7.0% for a sample of 200), making it difficult to consider month-to-month changes in approval ratings as statistically significant. Therefore, the numerical changes in approval ratings should not be taken as absolute. Gangwon and Jeju combined have 33 respondents and are excluded from interpretation.