Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 62-2: Security Issues Opinion Poll

Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 62: October Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. Is the Effect of Moderate Pragmatism Over? Support from the Center Drops by 7.7%

2. Security Issues Opinion Poll

North-South Summit: "Proceed Without Conditions" 47.0% vs. "Proceed with Precondition of Nuclear Abandonment" 48.3% - A Close Split

With the increasing possibility of resuming North Korea-U.S. dialogue and the rise in inter-Korean contact since President Lee Myung-bak introduced the Grand Bargain policy, interest in the possibility of a North-South summit has grown. The results of the regular survey asking the public's thoughts on a North-South summit show that 47.0% believe it "should proceed without conditions," while 48.3% believe it "should only be held after North Korea abandons its nuclear weapons," indicating a close division. Conversely, only 3.2% held a negative opinion, stating "it should not be held." [Refer to Appendix 1 for detailed differences in opinions by demographic group].

[Figure 1] Opinion on Holding a North-South Summit (%)

Transfer of Wartime Operational Control: "Proceed as Agreed" 49.3% vs. "Postpone Transfer" 36.6% vs. "Cancel Agreement" 6.1%

During U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' visit to South Korea, several contentious issues were highlighted during the Security Consultative Meeting between South Korea and the United States. Firstly, the defense ministers of both nations officially reaffirmed the agreement to transfer wartime operational control to South Korea by 2012. However, arguments have been raised that the agreement on the transfer of wartime operational control should be comprehensively re-examined, given that the North Korean nuclear issue remains unresolved and North Korea's intentions are unclear.

Regarding this issue as well, public opinion is divided: 49.3% believe that "the process of transferring operational control should proceed as agreed by 2012," while 36.6% believe that "the transfer period should be delayed through renegotiation." Additionally, 6.1% argued that "the agreement should be completely nullified."

[Figure 2] Opinion on the Transfer of Wartime Operational Control (%)

Dispatch to Afghanistan: "Combat Troops" 12.9% vs. "Non-military Support" 64.8% vs. "Non-intervention" 19.0%

The issue of expanding South Korea's role in Afghanistan has been raised, particularly in light of U.S. Secretary of Defense Gates' visit. Regarding this matter, only 12.9% held the position that South Korea "should actively intervene, including dispatching combat troops." Conversely, the opinion that "South Korea should not intervene in Afghan issues" was also a minority view, at 19.0%. However, 64.8% of respondents expressed the view that South Korea "should participate in Afghanistan support efforts requested by the international community, but limit it to non-military areas." On the issue of dispatching troops to Afghanistan, there is a high level of consensus across different socioeconomic statuses and political or ideological leanings to limit support to non-military areas.

However, regarding the pursuit of a North-South summit and the transfer of wartime operational control, generally, those with progressive leanings (in their 30s, highly educated, self-identified progressives) showed a higher preference for proceeding with the North-South summit without conditions. Conversely, those with conservative leanings (aged 50 and above, less educated, self-identified conservatives) were more likely to respond that it should be conditional on nuclear resolution or that they should not meet in principle. For the transfer of wartime operational control, a majority favored proceeding as scheduled. Conservative respondents showed a relatively higher proportion of opinions favoring renegotiation to delay the transfer or outright cancellation.

However, among the younger generation, those in their 20s tend to hold relatively more conservative positions compared to those in their 30s. Regarding the North-South summit, while the opinion "should meet without conditions" was lowest among those aged 50 and above at 34.5%, it reached 56.6% among those in their 40s and 60.9% among those in their 30s, indicating significant differences. Notably, among those in their 20s, the proactive stance of "should meet without conditions" was 42.7%, lower than respondents in their 30s and 40s. Similarly, the opinion "wartime operational control should be transferred as scheduled" reached 53.4% among those in their 30s and 55.8% among those in their 40s, but was relatively lower at 46.2% among those aged 50 and above. However, among those in their 20s, the opinion that it should proceed as agreed was only 46.2%.

When issues with inter-group perceptual differences, such as the North-South summit and the transfer of wartime operational control, are pursued in earnest, they are expected to have significant implications not only diplomatically but also domestically. If the government unilaterally pursues such conflict-inducing issues, they are likely to transform into domestic political disputes, amplifying unproductive debates and political conflict. In such a scenario, it is anticipated that President Lee Myung-bak's administration will face considerable burdens.

[Figure 3] Stance on Afghanistan Support Issue (%)