[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 61-2] Future Political Forecast

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 61] Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey 2

1. Factors contributing to President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating increase: Centrist pragmatism/Economy/North Korea policy/Governing style

2. Outlook for future approval rating fluctuations: Four Major Rivers Project-Sejong City-September 3 Cabinet Reshuffle-October 28 By-election

Will it realize creative pragmatism that emphasizes consensus issues? Or

Will it repeat the path of former President Roh, who chose a positional issue after impeachment?

Because the forces supporting the current presidential approval rating are in play, optimistic projections are growing larger than at any other time since the current administration took office. There is broad support for the centrist pragmatic approach, and optimistic forecasts are emerging domestically and internationally that the economic downturn has bottomed out. No immediate adverse factors are apparent in inter-Korean relations. The significant achievements highlighted in recent diplomatic activities related to the G-20 are also likely to favorably impact the approval rating trend.

Risk factors are also latent, considering the current major political issues and schedule. This is because positional issues, which emphasize political partisanship, are emerging as current affairs. Focusing on positional issues, where stances diverge based on political partisanship, rather than valence issues, for which a broad consensus on policy goals has been formed, can lead to a rapid cooling of the political climate or the instantaneous loss of hard-won public support.

Latent conflict-inducing positional issues: Sejong City revision/change 41.2%, Opposition to the Four Major Rivers Project 54.7%

[Figure 1] Evaluation of the September 3 Cabinet Reshuffle (%)

[Figure 2] Stance on the Sejong City Controversy (%)

Following the September 3 cabinet reshuffle, political confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties has intensified, and conflict-inducing political issues are being highlighted. Public evaluation of the September 3 cabinet reshuffle, approved by the National Assembly on September 28, is not favorable. The assessment that the appointments of the Prime Minister and five ministers were appropriate was 41.4%, while the assessment that they were inappropriate was 47.4%, with 11.2% undecided/no response. Regarding the government's ambitious Four Major Rivers Project, 41.5% are in favor and 54.7% are opposed, indicating a majority opposition sentiment. Opinions are also sharply divided on the 'Sejong City revised administrative plan' announced by the new Prime Minister Chung Un-chan. Those who believe it should proceed as originally planned account for 33.3%, those who believe it should be scaled down or revised account for 41.2%, and those who believe it should be halted account for 14.2%, with 11.3% undecided/no response. Public opinion favoring scaling down or abolishing the project is high in the Seoul metropolitan area and the Yeongnam region, while public opinion favoring maintaining the original plan is high in the Chungcheong and Honam regions, indicating a significant potential for regional conflict.

October 28 By-election also a variable: "59.9% view it as a mid-term evaluation of the current administration"

The October 28 by-election is also a variable. A majority of the public views the by-election as a mid-term evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak administration. Those who responded that it is an election to select a local representative accounted for 33.8%, those who responded it is a mid-term evaluation accounted for 59.9%, and 6.3% were undecided/no response. In particular, supporters of opposition parties such as the Democratic Party, the Liberty Forward Party, and the Democratic Labor Party are poised for the by-election, with 65% to 95% viewing it as a mid-term evaluation. Among unaffiliated voters who do not support any particular party, the response that it is an election to select a local representative was 30.5%, while the majority response was that it is a mid-term evaluation of the current administration (54.7%). Only among supporters of the Grand National Party were the responses evenly split between selecting a local representative (45.3%) and a mid-term evaluation (49.5%).

[Figure 3] Evaluation of the Four Major Rivers Project (%)

[Figure 4] Meaning of the October 28 By-election (%)

Move beyond the temptation of unilateral dominance and prioritize issues with a broad consensus base

When the support base expands and political initiative is gained, the president and the ruling party are prone to succumbing to the temptation of unilateral political dominance and fixating on political positions. The sharp decline in approval ratings experienced by former President Roh and the former ruling party Uri Party immediately after securing a majority of seats in the 2004 general election following impeachment was also influenced by such factors. Disregarding the majority public opinion to 'revitalize the economy' and focusing instead on pushing through 'four major reform bills' and the 'new administrative capital relocation' bill, which were highly likely to cause political conflict, led to a full-scale alienation of public sentiment.

Although the domestic and international economic and security situations have improved, uncertainty remains high. The proportion of respondents who believe the national economy has worsened has decreased but still exceeds 60%, and over 40% believe their household economy has worsened compared to a year ago. While positive evaluations of the government's North Korea policy have increased, optimistic projections regarding the North Korean nuclear issue itself were only 41.2% (2.0% will be resolved soon, 39.2% North Korea will give up after some time). Conversely, pessimistic projections were higher at 53.8% (34.4% will be forced to recognize North Korea's nuclear possession, 19.4% the situation will worsen due to North Korea's refusal). Furthermore, the urgent political schedule, leading from the parliamentary audit, by-elections, to next year's local elections, suggests that the path ahead for the president and the ruling party may not be smooth.

At this juncture, the Lee Myung-bak administration requires a practical and inclusive leadership that listens to the public will more than ever. It remains to be seen whether the president will choose the creative centrist pragmatism he has consistently emphasized since his election, or whether he will overestimate the current rise in approval ratings and repeat past mistakes.■

[See Figure] Presidential Approval Rating Trend: Approval Rate (%)