Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 57-2: Public Opinion on the August 15th National Political Reversal Card

Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 57: One Year and Six Months into MB's Inauguration: National Priorities and Outlook for the Second Half of the Year

1. One Year and Six Months into MB's Inauguration: Challenges and Opportunities for the Lee Myung-bak Administration

2. Public Opinion on the August 15th National Political Reversal Card

Public Opinion on Moderate Pragmatism, Inter-Korean Relations, and Political Reform: A Green Light for Now

The Key Lies in How Latent Anxieties are Addressed

Public reaction to the political reversal card announced in President Lee Myung-bak's August 15th Liberation Day address is, for the moment, favorable. The recent rise in the Lee Myung-bak administration's approval ratings is based on a surge in support from the centrist demographic. Inter-Korean relations, which had cooled due to North Korea's rocket launch and second nuclear test, are rapidly thawing through events such as the visit of Hyundai Asan Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun to North Korea, the release of detained Hyundai employees, and the dispatch of a condolence delegation for former President Kim Dae-jung. Public opinion is also favorable towards the proposed administrative district reorganization and changes to the electoral system, presented under the banner of resolving regional conflict and achieving national unity.

Effect of Moderate Pragmatism: Lee's Approval Rating Rises 6.8%p Month-on-Month, Centrist Support Rises 13.1%p

Offsetting Weakening Support from Conservatives

Looking at the changes in approval ratings over the past few months, as the moderate pragmatic line solidifies as the Lee Myung-bak administration's policy stance, approval ratings among ideological centrists and progressives are increasing, while support from conservatives is declining.

First, looking at the changes in approval ratings by ideological group, support for the administration among centrists, which had fallen to 31.2% in June and 28.4% in July, has now risen to 41.5%. This is an increase of 13.1%p compared to July, reaching a level similar to that of conservatives. Among progressives, 24.4% positively evaluate the Lee Myung-bak administration's state affairs management, an increase of 5.6%p compared to July.

[Figure 1] Changes in National Approval Ratings by Ideological Group and Overall Approval Ratings (%)

Conversely, the President's approval rating among conservatives fell to 43.1% in July from 49.2% in June. In the current survey, it remains stagnant at 43.2%, dropping to a level similar to that of centrists. As the Lee Myung-bak administration emphasizes moderate pragmatism and unity, support from traditional conservatives is relatively weakening. There is a concern that the so-called excessive pursuit of 'mountain rabbits' might cause the 'house rabbits' to flee.

Expectations for Improved Inter-Korean Relations: 'Security is Unstable' Plummets from 59.2% (6/20) to 24.5% (8/22) in Two Months

Prospects for Resolving the North Korean Nuclear Issue: Optimism vs. Pessimism, MB's North Korea Policy

Meanwhile, as movements signaling change emerge in inter-Korean relations, which had frozen due to North Korea's rocket launch, second nuclear test, and the international community's pressure on North Korea, anxieties about security are significantly decreasing. In the March survey, 29.5% expressed that Korean security was unstable. However, in the survey conducted immediately after the second nuclear test on June 5th, this figure rose to 48.4%, and on June 20th, it soared to a remarkable 59.2%. Recently, due to positive developments in inter-Korean relations, including former US President Clinton's visit to North Korea, the visit of Hyundai Asan Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun, and North Korea's dispatch of a condolence delegation for former President Kim Dae-jung, security anxiety has fallen to 24.5%, the lowest figure this year. Optimistic outlooks for inter-Korean relations in the second half of the year have also significantly increased.

[Figure 1] Changes in Public Security Anxiety: 'Korean Security is Unstable' (%)

Although public security anxiety has weakened and optimism regarding the outlook for improved inter-Korean relations has increased, the government cannot solely welcome these changes. Firstly, it is unlikely that North Korea's change in attitude will be sustained. Furthermore, it is improbable that North Korea will easily abandon its nuclear weapons, which it is pursuing as a strategy for regime survival. Public opinion in South Korea is also divided on the prospects for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, which the government has set as a prerequisite for inter-Korean aid and cooperation. Only 3.2% responded that North Korea would soon abandon its nuclear program, while 42.2% believed it would abandon it in the long term. Conversely, a pessimistic outlook suggests that a compromise will be reached where neighboring countries accept North Korea's nuclear status, as North Korea will not abandon its weapons, with 32.6% holding this view. The most pessimistic view, that the North Korean nuclear issue will worsen and the crisis will intensify, was held by 17.2%. These results suggest that domestic public opinion could be significantly divided regarding the government's North Korea policy principle of 'first denuclearization, then aid'.

[Figure 2] Outlook on North Korean Nuclear Issue Resolution (%)

Political Reform for National Unity: Public Opinion is Favorable, but No Solutions for Stakeholder Opposition

In his August 15th Liberation Day address, President Lee Myung-bak proposed reducing administrative tiers, decreasing the number of election cycles, and introducing a multi-member constituency system where multiple National Assembly members are elected from each region, as measures for national unity. Public opinion on this proposal is favorable.

First, regarding the plan to abolish provinces and merge adjacent cities or counties to create new administrative districts, 56.9% expressed support (16.4% strongly support + 40.4% tend to support), which is 20.6 percentage points higher than the 36.3% who opposed it (8.3% strongly oppose + 28.0% tend to oppose).

Meanwhile, public opinion shows a much stronger consensus on the proposal to reduce the number of election cycles through constitutional amendment. A total of 81.2% of respondents expressed support (43.3% strongly support + 37.9% tend to support), which is more than five times higher than the 15.6% who opposed it (3.7% strongly oppose + 11.8% tend to oppose).

Furthermore, regarding the possibility of transitioning to a multi-member constituency system, where two or more members are elected simultaneously from a single electoral district as a key measure to resolve regionalism, there was also considerable favorable public opinion. 53.4% expressed support (17.7% strongly support + 35.7% tend to support), while 40.8% opposed it (14.0% strongly oppose + 26.8% tend to oppose). While it is true that public support is more divided compared to the proposal to reduce election cycles, the fact that favorable public opinion for the introduction of a multi-member constituency system is relatively dominant is also noteworthy.

[Figure 1] Administrative District Reorganization (%)

[Figure 2] Adjustment of Election Cycles (%)

[Figure 3] National Evaluation/Ideology/Party Support for Adjustment of Election Cycles (%)

* Excludes 'Don't know/No response'

[Figure 4] Adjustment of Electoral System (%)

It is noteworthy that the perception differences based on political stances and attitudes, such as presidential approval, party support, and ideological orientation, are not significant for administrative district reorganization, adjustment of election cycles, and the multi-member constituency system. However, it is difficult to consider the differences significant among supporters of political parties.

Although favorable public opinion has formed regarding the political reform proposals, there are many hurdles to overcome for these reform proposals to materialize. Above all, political reform issues are not among the public's top national priorities and are outside their immediate concerns. Given that these matters require a high degree of specialized judgment and insight, determining policy direction based solely on the distribution of public opinion can be extremely risky. Furthermore, when discussions 본격화 (become full-fledged) in the political sphere, the crucial variable will be whether the political establishment can relinquish its existing vested interests. It appears that there is still a long way to go for the political reform bills, put forth as a decisive move for the second half of the year's state affairs management, to be concretized into substantive reform policies.