[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 57-1] 1 Year and 6 Months into MB's Presidency: Challenges and Opportunities for the Lee Myung-bak Administration

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 57] 1 Year and 6 Months into Lee Myung-bak's Presidency: National Priorities and Outlook for the Second Half of the Year

1. 1 Year and 6 Months into MB's Presidency: Challenges and Opportunities for the Lee Myung-bak Administration

2. Public Opinion on the August 15th Political Turning Point

Optimistic Outlook for the Economy and Inter-Korean Relations in the Second Half Increasing, Pessimism Decreasing

Discrepancy in Perceptions of National Priorities is a Burden: Difficulty in Setting Government Priorities and Mobilizing National Strength

Green Light for State Administration: Rising Approval Ratings and Optimistic Outlook for the Economy and Inter-Korean Relations in the Second Half

There are positive signs for the Lee Myung-bak administration's state affairs in the second half of the year. The approval rating for President Lee Myung-bak, which had declined following the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun and the forceful passage of the media bill, has recently turned upward with the presentation of turning point strategies such as "pragmatic centrism" and "political reform." Public optimism regarding state administration is also growing. This is based on the results of a public opinion poll conducted by the East Asia Institute (EAI), JoongAng Sunday, and Korea Research on August 22nd, during the mourning period for former President Kim Dae-jung, surveying 800 adults nationwide. The margin of error for this survey is ±3.5%p at a 95% confidence level.

President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating, which was 30.5% in July, rose by 6.8% to 37.3%. While the prevailing view was that there would not be significant changes in the second half, this survey result indicates that optimistic outlooks for inter-Korean relations and economic growth/job creation now outweigh pessimistic views. Compared to the survey conducted around the first anniversary of MB's inauguration in February, optimistic views are gradually increasing and pessimistic views are sharply declining on key issues such as economic growth and job creation, inter-Korean relations, and the resolution of the wealth gap.

[Figure 1] Changes in Sectoral Outlook Over 6 Months (%)

Pessimism ("Will Worsen") Decreasing, Optimism ("Will Improve") Increasing

In terms of economic growth and job creation, the response that it will improve increased from 24.8% in February to 30.6%, while pessimism that it will worsen significantly decreased from 33.6% to 13.1%. Regarding the wealth gap issue, pessimistic views (49.5%) are more prevalent than optimistic views (10.2%) that it will improve. However, this is a considerable improvement compared to the February survey, where the gap between optimistic views (6.9%) and pessimistic views (63.7%) on the wealth gap was a wide 56.8%p. The growing optimism in economic sectors can be attributed to increased expectations of economic recovery as various economic indicators have recently improved.

Meanwhile, the area where optimism is most pronounced is inter-Korean relations. In this survey, the optimistic outlook for inter-Korean relations rose significantly to 31.8% compared to 8.3% in February, while pessimistic responses sharply decreased from 48.9% to 18.1%. This is interpreted as a result of increased expectations for changes in inter-Korean relations, which had been frozen, following Hyundai Asan Chairman Hyun Jeong-eun's visit to North Korea, the release of detained Hyundai employees, and North Korea's dispatch of a delegation to mourn former President Kim Dae-jung.

[Figure 2] Outlook for the Second Half by Sector (%)

[Table 1] Changes in Outlook for Key Sectors Between February and August 2009 (%)

Discrepancy in Perceptions of National Priorities is a Burden: Difficulty in Setting National Priorities and Developing Policy Instruments

From the government's perspective, there are also considerable burdens. Although optimism is increasing and pessimism is decreasing, the majority of the public believes that "things will not change much," and diverse demands regarding policy priorities are emerging.

When asked about the national tasks that the government should prioritize, public attention was concentrated on the two major tasks of "economic growth" and "resolving economic polarization" during the early period of the administration. However, 1 year and 6 months later, in addition to these tasks, demands for "national unity" and "resolving inter-Korean relations/diplomatic security" are also growing. The overlapping of various domestic and international factors of instability, such as the U.S.-led economic crisis, North Korea's nuclear test, the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun, and the chaotic passage of the media bill, has broadened the scope of policy priorities considered by the public.

In the survey conducted in March 2008, shortly after the Lee Myung-bak administration took office, nearly half (46.9%) chose the issue of economic polarization as the top national priority. "Economic growth" was the second most frequent response with 32.8%. In the February survey for the first anniversary of President Lee Myung-bak's inauguration, although it decreased slightly compared to the survey immediately after taking office, economic polarization remained the top issue at 33.9%, followed by economic growth at 26.6%. In this latest survey, the response for "economic growth" as the top national priority decreased by 7.8%p to 25.0% compared to the previous survey, and "alleviating economic polarization" decreased significantly by 15.4%p to 21.5%. This is the first time in public opinion surveys since the Lee Myung-bak administration took office that prioritizing economic growth has surpassed prioritizing the issue of polarization.

In contrast, while only 6.3% of respondents emphasized "national unity" in the survey immediately after taking office, this figure increased to 16.6% in the current survey. The proportion of respondents who selected "inter-Korean relations and diplomatic security" as a priority task also increased from 4.0% to 14.8%. Additionally, the percentage of respondents who cited "improving quality of life" as the government's top priority increased from 5.5% to 12.2%, and the proportion emphasizing "political reform" also saw a slight increase from 3.6% to 6.6%. As public perceptions of national priorities become more diverse, it becomes more difficult for the government to respond with appropriate policies and to select and concentrate resources for problem-solving, which inevitably becomes a burden for the administration.

[Figure 3] Changes in Perceptions of Top National Priorities Since President Lee Myung-bak Took Office

One Month into MB's Presidency (March 2008) 1 Year and 6 Months into MB's Presidency (August 2009)

[Table 1] Changes in Perceptions of Top National Priorities