[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 46-1] Political Mood and Party Ideological Basis of Ruling and Opposition Parties as Seen Through Public Opinion

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 46] May Public Opinion Barometer

[Theme] Political Mood and Party Ideological Basis of Ruling and Opposition Parties as Seen Through Public Opinion

[Current Issues] Dignified Death, Illegal/Violent Protests, Kaesong Industrial Complex, Private Education

[Tracking] May 2009 Presidential Approval Ratings and Party Support Ratings

Theme: Political Mood and Party Ideological Basis of Ruling and Opposition Parties as Seen Through Public Opinion: Comparison of Public Opinion Between General Public and Party Supporters

Changes in Political Mood and the Ideology of Ruling and Opposition Parties

Recently, there has been a heated debate about the ideological identity of major parties, both ruling and opposition. The Lee Myung-bak administration, which advocated a 'pragmatic approach,' has faced criticism regarding its ideological identity from conservative factions within and outside the party since its early days in power. The Democratic United Party is also experiencing fierce ideological debates between its mainstream and non-mainstream factions as its leadership proposes a 'New Democratic Party Plan' that emphasizes a growth-oriented path and focuses on presenting alternatives rather than blind opposition as part of its party reform efforts. For the ideological positioning of each party, which is currently leading to internal strife, to succeed, it must align with the support base of each party and the ideological orientation of the general public. This analysis examines the ideological differences between so-called 'core supporters' and 'swing voters,' and how these differences affect the ideological identity of each party.

1. Changes in Political Mood

- Political Mood Before and After the Lee Myung-bak Administration: Shrinking Conservatives, Expanding Moderates, Gradual Recovery of Progressives

Analyzing the results of public opinion surveys conducted by EAI since 2007 asking respondents about their self-identified ideological orientation reveals that Koreans' ideological orientations are significantly fluctuating in response to changes in the political and social environment. In 2007, the year of the presidential election, the proportion of conservatives, which was only 28.0% in the April survey, surged with the high approval ratings of the Grand National Party and candidate Lee Myung-bak, reaching a peak of 45.0% by February 2008, just before the presidential inauguration.

However, during the transition team period, the cabinet appointment process, and particularly the candlelight protests from May to July, which led to a political crisis, criticism of the conservative government intensified. Consequently, the conservative ideological group decreased to 33.2% in the September 2008 survey and further declined to 29.8% in the current survey. The reduction in conservatives has led to an expansion of the moderate group and a gradual increase in the shrinking progressive group. The moderate group had shrunk to 29.1% in 2007, inversely proportional to the increase in the conservative group. As the conservative group decreased, the moderate group steadily increased to 41.8%. The progressive group also contracted until October 2007, but has shown a gradual and steady upward trend since the Lee Myung-bak administration took office. In the current survey, it has slightly decreased to 28.5% compared to the previous month, showing a pause.

The ideological climate in South Korea is moving in conjunction with changes in the political and social environment. It can be summarized as an expansion of the moderate group, a weakening of the conservative group, and a pause in the gradual upward trend of the progressive group. This political mood appears to have significantly influenced the post-election party reorganization activities following the overwhelming defeat of the ruling party with a 5:0 score in the April 26 by-elections, and the Democratic Party's reform efforts to regain its footing. This is because the main focus of the party reorganization and reform activities of these major parties is on establishing their ideological identity. The Grand National Party, whose party support ratings hovered above 50% in the last presidential election, has seen its support drop to around 30%. The Democratic Party has been facing a crisis of party decline with consistently low support ratings below 20%. While party reorganization and consolidation of its structure are one aspect of party innovation, the re-evaluation of the party's ideology and policies to expand its base constitutes another crucial aspect.

This paper aims to examine the challenges and tasks faced by the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party in their process of ideological positioning by analyzing how the general public and their respective supporters evaluate and expect the ideological stances of these two parties, and to suggest political implications they should consider.

[Figure 1] Changes in Ideological Group Size (2007-2009) (%) (Excluding 'Don't Know/No Answer')

2. Current Ideological Basis of the Two Parties

- Conservatives are the main base for the Grand National Party, Progressives for the Democratic Party; ultimately, it boils down to competition for moderate voters.

- Grand National Party Supporters: Moderates + Conservatives; Democratic Party Supporters: Progressives + Moderates.

- Among unaffiliated voters and the general public, moderates are dominant, with progressives and conservatives in a near-tie.

In the current survey, when the general public is classified by subjective ideological orientation, moderates constitute the largest group at 41.8%, while progressives (28.5%) and conservatives (29.8%) are in a near-tie. This represents a significant change compared to the period surrounding the 2007 presidential election, when the proportion of those identifying as conservative surged following the election of Lee Myung-bak. Among Grand National Party supporters, moderates account for 41.6%, conservatives for 38.8%, and progressives for 19.6%. As expected from a party with a moderate-conservative orientation, the proportions of moderates and conservatives are significant.

In contrast, the Democratic Party comprises 40.5% moderates and 33.9% progressives, with these two groups forming the majority. The proportion of conservatives among Democratic Party supporters was relatively low at 22.3%. Among unaffiliated voters, moderates form the majority (43.5%), similar to the general public's distribution, with progressives (29.2%) and conservatives (28.7%) in a near-tie. The distinct ideological divisions between the support bases of the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party suggest that neither party can afford to ignore its ideological stance, even while advocating for de-ideologization and pragmatic reforms.

[Figure 2] Ideological Basis of the General Public and Major Parties (%) (Excluding 'Don't Know/No Answer')

- The Importance of Ideological Proximity in Choosing a Political Party.

As confirmed in the current survey, individuals tend to support a political party whose perceived or stated ideological position is closer to their own ideological orientation. Parties fundamentally distant from the ideological color and orientation of the majority of the public are unlikely to gain support. Therefore, for a party to expand its support base and solidify its supporters, it must make efforts to align with the ideological orientations desired by the general public and its own supporters.

Indeed, among those who perceive their ideological orientation as similar to that of the Grand National Party, the support rate for the Grand National Party is 44.8%. For those who perceive a slight or significant difference, the support rate for the Grand National Party drops sharply to 16.1% and 5.1%, respectively. Conversely, when individuals feel that the ideological orientation of the Democratic Party is close to their own, the support rate for the Democratic Party is 28.8%. Among those who perceive a slight distance, only 18.8% support the Democratic Party. For those who perceive a significant distance, there were no Democratic Party supporters, and the proportion supporting the Grand National Party was the highest (see Figures 3 and 4). This proximity model can be useful in explaining how changes in voters' ideologies are reflected in shifts in the party competition landscape.

[Figure 3] Ideological Distance Between the Grand National Party and Respondents, and Party Support Rate (%)

[Figure 4] Ideological Distance Between the Democratic Party and One's Own Ideology, and Party Support Rate (%)

3. The Impact of Changes in Public's Self-Identified Ideology on Party Ideology

We will now examine how this trend of convergence towards the center and de-ideologization within the public will act as a force to shift the ideology and policies of both parties, whether it will ultimately weaken the competition between the two parties, and how it will affect each party's efforts to re-establish its ideology, by analyzing the data from the regular May survey.

- Clear trend of public convergence towards the center: Ideological moderation from 5.5 in 2007 and 2008 to 5.1 in 2009.

The survey results indicate that while ideological conflict within the public is decreasing, the potential for ideological conflict between parties remains. The gap between the perceived ideological orientations of the ruling and opposition parties is larger than the gap between the ideological orientations of Grand National Party supporters and Democratic Party supporters. Examining the average ideological orientations of Democratic Party supporters and Grand National Party supporters, the ideological gap between them decreased from 1.5 points in 2007 (Democratic Party 4.6, Grand National Party 6.1) to 0.7 points in the current survey (Democratic Party 4.9, Grand National Party 5.6). The convergence of ideologies among the public can be attributed to factors such as ideological fatigue resulting from prolonged ideological conflict during the previous administration, a continuous worsening of economic sentiment, and the resulting emphasis on economic priorities.

[Figure 5] Changes in Ideological Orientation of the General Public/Grand National Party-Democratic Party Supporters and Perceptions of Party Ideological Orientation (2007-2009)

Note: 0 represents very progressive, 10 represents very conservative, and 5 represents moderate. Average response of respondents' self-assessment of ideological orientation.

- The ideological gap between the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party has not significantly narrowed.

- The Democratic Party has moved to the right (4.6 to 4.9), while the Grand National Party has shown little change (6.5 to 6.4).

While the ideological gap between the supporters of the ruling and opposition parties has narrowed over time, the ideological distance between the two parties remains significant. The gap between the perceived ideological orientation of the Democratic Party (4.8 points) and the Grand National Party (6.4 points) is 1.6 points, indicating a substantial perceived ideological difference. This suggests that the efforts of both parties to re-establish their ideologies and policies, aiming to move closer to the public, have not yet been recognized in reality.

4. Considerations and Challenges in the Process of Party Ideology Re-establishment

If the ideological orientations preferred by the general public and party supporters are aligned, it acts as a driving force for the party's ideological shift. However, if they diverge, the party faces a dilemma. Whether the ideological preferences of the general public and a party's supporters are consistent or conflicting is a key variable in determining a specific party's ideological stance. Let us examine the commonalities and differences in the changes of ideological preferences of the general public and supporters of each party, and explore the challenges this poses for each party's ongoing efforts to re-establish its ideology and policies.

- Pressure for public convergence towards the center: Pressure for the Grand National Party to move leftward and the Democratic Party to move rightward.

When the general public perceives the Grand National Party as being at the same ideological position as themselves, the support rate for the Grand National Party is highest, reaching 55.8%. When perceived as more progressive than themselves, the support rate is 31.1%, which is higher than the 19.6% support rate when perceived as more conservative. For the Grand National Party, support increases when respondents perceive their own ideological orientation as aligned with the party's, and they tend to support it more when it is perceived as progressive rather than conservative. Consequently, this public opinion exerts pressure on the Grand National Party to shift towards the center, where most respondents are located, from its conservative stance.

In contrast, for the Democratic Party, the support rate is highest when perceived as being at the same ideological position as oneself (28.2%). However, it receives higher support when perceived as conservative (27.0%) than when perceived as progressive (19.8%). Public opinion exerts pressure on the Democratic Party to move towards the center, where the majority of the public is located. As observed earlier, the expansion of the moderate group seen in 2008, following the conservative trend in 2007, is acting as an ideological pressure on each party.

[Figure 6] Ideological Orientation of the Grand National Party Compared to One's Own, and Grand National Party Support Rate (%)

[Figure 7] Ideological Orientation of the Democratic Party Compared to One's Own, and Democratic Party Support Rate (%)

- Conflicting Pressures from Party Supporters.

- Grand National Party Supporters (5.6 points) desire a moderation of conservatism in the party.

- Democratic Party Supporters (4.9 points) demand a clearer progressive stance from the party.

While many Grand National Party and Democratic Party supporters wish for their respective parties to maintain their current positions, the proportion of respondents who desire a shift towards the left (i.e., a more progressive stance) is higher than the proportion desiring a shift towards the right. Overall, there is a greater likelihood of pressure to move in a progressive direction.

Among 200 Grand National Party supporters, 45.8% are satisfied with the current ideological stance, but 34.1% desire a shift to the left, exceeding the 20.1% who desire a shift to the right. Among 156 Democratic Party supporters, 39.3% desire to maintain the status quo, followed by 34.6% who desire a shift towards a progressive direction. The demand for a shift towards a conservative direction was 26.1%. Unlike the general public's opinion, a notable characteristic among Democratic Party supporters is the higher proportion desiring a shift towards a more progressive direction rather than towards the center-right.

In terms of scores, Grand National Party supporters rated the current ideological position of the Grand National Party at 6.0 out of 10 (where scores closer to 10 indicate strong conservatism, 5 indicates moderate, and scores closer to 0 indicate strong progressivism). However, they rated the desirable ideological orientation of the Grand National Party at 5.5, indicating a demand for the party to align with the average ideological position of its supporters (5.6). This suggests a call for a moderated conservatism rather than a strong conservative stance, aligning with the proximity model.

In contrast, while consistently moving towards a more moderate position, Democratic Party supporters (average 4.9 points) perceive the current ideological position of the Democratic Party as 4.8, very close to the center. However, they desire an ideological stance of 4.5, which is more progressive. This indicates a demand for a clearer progressive stance, even if it means diverging from their own ideological alignment. Therefore, for Democratic Party supporters, a directional model, which suggests that support is gained by clearly defining a specific ideological stance, appears to be a more appropriate explanatory model than the proximity model.

[Figure 8] Changes in the Ideological Stance of the Grand National Party and Democratic Party Supporters (%)

[Figure 9] Changes in the Ideological Stance of the Grand National Party and Democratic Party Supporters (Score)

5. Summary

- Grand National Party: Consistent pressure from the general public and its supporters to moderate its conservatism.

- Democratic Party: Conflicting demands from the general public and its supporters, posing the greatest challenge to its ideological re-establishment.

In summary, the Grand National Party appears to be facing a common pressure from both the general public and its supporters to move towards the center. The voices calling for moderation of conservatism, emanating from both the general public and party supporters, are likely to lend momentum to the Grand National Party's reform efforts. However, given the deeply rooted conservative ideology and the current priorities of resolving internal factional disputes and establishing a cooperative government-party system, it remains uncertain whether substantial progress will be made. While the current party reorganization efforts are primarily focused on resolving factional conflicts, it is necessary to also pay attention to the party's ideological re-establishment, which is expected by the public and even by party supporters.

The Democratic Party faces a similar predicament. Although it has gained some momentum following its performance in the April by-elections and the election of its floor leader, the conflicting public opinion and supporter opinion suggest that the party's current efforts to modernize its ideology or find its ideological identity may stall. While the general public's opinion largely favors a move towards the center, supporters' voices calling for a more progressive stance are relatively strong. Reflecting this, debates are ongoing within the Democratic Party regarding its ideological identity: one side argues for a clearer ideological stance to rally supporters, while the other advocates for a shift towards the center-right to broaden its public support base, as proposed in the New Democratic Party Plan. The question of whether a solution can be found to satisfy both 'core supporters' and 'swing voters,' whose opinions differ, remains to be seen.