Opinion Briefing 14-2: First Analysis of Presidential Panel Survey ②

Opinion Briefing 14: First Analysis of Presidential Panel Survey

[1] Why a Panel Survey? "How the Survey Was Conducted" - Kim Byong-kook, EAI President

[2] Can the Pro-Government Coalition's Alliance Against the Grand National Party Be Realized? - Lee Nae-young, Chairperson

[3] Analysis of Factors Affecting Defections and Realignments in the Pro-Government Coalition - Kwon Hyuk-yong, Chairperson

[4] Supporters of Lee and Park, Voting Intentions if Their Preferred Candidate Withdraws - Jeong Han-wool, Chairperson

[5] Korean Women Declare Political Independence - Kim Min-jeon, Chairperson

[6] The 386 Generation at 40: The Equation '386 = Anti-Grand National Party' Is Broken - Lim Sung-hak, Chairperson

[7] Competition Between the Grand National Party's Big Two and New Regional Divides: The Emergence of North-South Divides - Kim Jang-soo, Chairperson

4. Prediction of Voting Changes Among Lee and Park Supporters Following the Grand National Party Primary

Jeong Han-wool (EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center, Deputy Director)

Analysis of Voting Intentions When Current Preferred Candidate Does Not Run

If Candidate Lee Does Not Run: 47% of Lee's Supporters Would Support Candidate Park, 14.6% Would Support Candidate Sohn Hak-kyu

If Candidate Park Does Not Run: 58.1% of Park's Supporters Would Support Candidate Lee Myung-bak, 7.4% Would Support Candidate Sohn Hak-kyu

The most prominent characteristic of the 2007 presidential election political landscape thus far is the delay in the formation of a new party by the pro-government coalition and the absence of a clear frontrunner. This has led to intense competition between the two Grand National Party candidates, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, rather than a contest between pro-government and opposition candidates. If one of these two candidates is selected as the Grand National Party's presidential nominee through the primary, how the supporters of both candidates will shift their votes post-primary is expected to significantly influence the election outcome. Furthermore, as the competition and conflict between the two candidates intensify, concerns are growing about whether the defeated candidate's supporters will indeed support the eventual nominee. This survey presents interesting findings regarding the voting intentions of supporters of both candidates after the Grand National Party primary.

When asked about their voting intentions if their current preferred candidate were not running, 47% of Lee Myung-bak's supporters responded they would support Park Geun-hye, while 14.6% indicated they would shift their support to Sohn Hak-kyu. Conversely, among Park Geun-hye's supporters, 58.1% stated they would support Lee Myung-bak if Park were not running. The proportion defecting to the pro-government candidate camp, including the 7.4% who would switch to Sohn Hak-kyu, appeared relatively low. These results could serve as an argument for the overwhelming advantage of the Grand National Party nominee if Lee Myung-bak is selected as the party's candidate in the primary. However, from another perspective, Lee's supporters' base may overlap significantly with the pro-government camp's supporters, leaving considerable room for a decline in support depending on the realignment of the pro-government forces.

Since elections are relative games where the situation can change depending on who the opposing candidate is, it is difficult to assess the advantage or disadvantage of any candidate based solely on these results. However, assuming that the existing support bases of the two candidates remain unchanged, if one candidate is ultimately selected, adding the votes flowing in from the opposing candidate's supporters to their current support, it is clear that the Grand National Party holds an advantageous position, even if all the votes from the current pro-government camp coalesce behind a single candidate. Ultimately, the Grand National Party's most crucial election strategy is to prevent a catastrophic situation where the party splits due to excessive competition and distrust between the two candidates within the party, and to conduct a democratic internal primary.

[Table 1: Presidential Panel Survey 1st Round] Preferred Candidate if Current Candidate Does Not Run

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17th Presidential Election: Analysis of Cleavages 1.

5. Women in South Korea Declare Political Independence

Women Begin to Possess Gender-Conscious Political Awareness

Kim Min-jeon (Professor, Kyung Hee University)

Female voters' support for candidate Park is higher than male voters' support for candidate Park.

In younger generations, the gap in support for candidate Park between men and women is large: Signs of gender-conscious political awareness.

In the 50s and 60s age groups, there is no difference in support for candidate Park between women and men.

‘Women don’t vote for women.’ ‘Women vote the same way as their husbands.’ These are widely held myths regarding women’s voting behavior. However, the currents of female sentiment leading up to the 2007 presidential election are neatly disposing of these conventional myths. Looking at the approval ratings for the two main presidential candidates, former Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak and former Grand National Party Chairwoman Park Geun-hye, men tend to prefer former Mayor Lee, while women tend to prefer former Chairwoman Park. While 45.2% of male respondents and 43.6% of female respondents support former Mayor Lee, 19.2% of male respondents and 25.2% of female respondents support former Chairwoman Park.

This gender gap in support is remarkably large among those in their 20s, 30s, and 40s. While 17.1% of men in their 20s support former Chairwoman Park, 24.4% of women in their 20s support her. The gap widens further in their 30s and 40s, with women's support nearly double that of men. 23.3% of women in their 30s and 23.3% of women in their 40s support former Chairwoman Park, whereas support among men in their 30s and 40s is only 12.6% and 15.4%, respectively. However, the situation reverses for those aged 50 and above. While 23.8% of women in their 50s and 31.3% of women in their 60s support former Chairwoman Park, 25.0% of men in their 50s and 33.1% of men in their 60s support her. This phenomenon is also partially observed in the support for former Mayor Lee. 51.9% of men in their 20s and 40.9% of women in their 20s support former Mayor Lee, indicating a 11 percentage point difference in support between genders (Figures 1, 2).

The surprising gender gap in support among those in their 20s, 30s, and 40s can be attributed to the fact that women in these generations, who have received higher education, have begun to form gender-conscious political awareness. They appear to be awakening to the idea that women need political role models and that women better represent women. The political rise of former Chairwoman Park, as well as former Justice Minister Kang Kum-sil and former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, is distinctly different from the past when female politicians were merely considered token figures. At the root of this change lies the evolving consciousness of young female voters.

Furthermore, women appear to be developing unique identities concerning political issues, distinct from men. Compared to men, they tend to place greater emphasis on harmony and the protection of the vulnerable, and tolerance over maintaining order. Women show higher approval rates than men for the statements, 'The right to assembly and protest must be guaranteed, even if it is inconvenient,' and 'Income distribution is more important than growth.' Conversely, men show higher approval rates than women for the statements, 'Regulations on large corporations should be eased,' 'Domestic markets should be opened,' and 'Diplomatic policy should prioritize the ROK-US alliance' (Figures 3, 4). While these differences in gender perspectives on political issues are all statistically significant, the divergence in positions between genders is particularly pronounced among those in their 20s, 30s, and 40s.

Ultimately, it appears that in South Korea, a gender-conscious political identity is beginning to be forged, centered around young female voters. Our female voters are now likely to form a major political cleavage axis in society, similar to their counterparts in Western countries. Concurrently, society faces the challenge of making difficult choices when the policy positions of the majority of women conflict with those of female candidates.

[Figure 1] Lee Myung-bak Candidate: Support by Generation and Gender [Figure 2] Park Geun-hye Candidate: Support by Generation and Gender

[Figure 3] Public Opinion on Key Issues: Men vs. Women

Oppose Support

17th Presidential Election: Analysis of Cleavages 2.

6. Generations and Age

The 386 Generation, Now in Their 40s, Breaks the Equation '386 = Anti-Grand National Party'

Lim Seong-hak (University of Seoul)

The 386 Generation, Now in Their 40s, Breaks the Equation '386 = Anti-Grand National Party'

The younger the generation, the more progressives there are; progressive supporters also show high support for candidates Lee and Park. Age effect is unlikely to be significant.

Examining the Possibility of Re-mobilizing Pro-Government Supporters Based on Generation and Age

Despite the Grand National Party's crushing defeat in the by-election and internal conflicts between candidates Park and Lee, the approval ratings for the pro-government candidates and parties remain stagnant. If this situation persists, the probability of a pro-government candidate winning the presidential election will be very low. Conversely, if the pro-government camp can successfully re-mobilize the support base from the 16th presidential election and the 17th general election, and appeal to the progressive and anti-Grand National Party youth, this election could be as fiercely contested as past elections. First, based on the results of this survey, let us examine the traditional support base of the pro-government camp and the ideological and voting tendencies of the younger generation.

The 386 Generation, a Traditional Support Base: Increasingly Conservative

The 386 generation refers to those who experienced democratization during their university years and globalization upon entering society, and who tend to be more progressive than other generations. The 386 generation played a crucial role in the emergence of progressive governments and the reform of Korean society, but they are also criticized as an unprepared idealistic reform generation due to their increasingly critical views of the Roh Moo-hyun administration. The term 386 refers to individuals in their 30s, with university enrollment in the 1980s, and born in the 1960s (born between 1960-1969). As of 2007, the 386 generation can be considered to be between the ages of 37 and 46.

Examining the voting tendencies of the 386 generation since 2002 reveals that, overall, their support for progressive forces has been relatively higher than that of the general public. Their support for the Uri Party or the Democratic Labor Party is relatively higher compared to the general public. However, they have shown a trend of increasing conservatism since the 2002 presidential election; in the 2006 metropolitan mayoral elections, nearly half (47.5%) of the 386 generation chose a Grand National Party candidate. In the current survey, the 386 generation exhibits a similar pattern to the general public across almost all question items. Regarding preferred candidates in the 2007 presidential election, 44.9% support Lee Myung-bak and 20.1% support Park Geun-hye, indicating a conservative tendency. However, their support for candidate Park is lower than that of the general public, while their support for candidate Sohn Hak-kyu is higher at 8.6% compared to the general public's 5.7%. This phenomenon appears to reflect the fact that the 386 generation, now facing significant financial responsibilities, has become more pragmatic, leading to a weakening of their past democratic and reformist inclinations.

In other words, rather than a generational effect where specific ideologies and values are shared based on common historical events or cultural homogeneity, the effect of age, where ideological tendencies and attitudes become more conservative with increasing age, is becoming stronger. Considering that the 386 generation, traditionally a support base for the pro-government camp, is becoming more conservative, the re-mobilization of the pro-government camp's traditional support base is expected to be difficult.

[Table 1] Comparison of Presidential Election Support in 2002, 2004, and 2006: Comparison of 386 Generation and All Respondents

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(Independent, Don't know/No response excluded)

* Analysis only for candidates with over 1% support rate

** The reason for the difference between the actual vote share of candidates and parties and the vote share in this survey is

Progressive Young Generation

Generally, the 20s and 30s are progressive, while the 40s and 50s are conservative. This phenomenon is called the age effect, and since the last presidential election, clear differences in voting patterns by age have emerged and persisted. Although the age effect was low due to low voter turnout, the proportion of young people who strongly intend to vote has significantly increased in this survey, suggesting that the age effect may be stronger in this presidential election than in the past. Can the pro-government camp increase its support rate through this age effect? Looking at the age distribution of those who identify themselves as progressive, the 20s show the highest at 34%, followed by the 30s at 32%, the 40s at 27.5%, the 50s at 22.5%, and those aged 60 and above at 20.0%, indicating an age effect. However, in this survey, the 20s and 30s also prefer Lee Myung-bak as the presidential candidate, followed by Park Geun-hye, which is not significantly different from the general public, suggesting that the age effect is not expected to appear. (Figures 1, 2)

[Figure 1] Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye Support by Ideological Tendency

[Figure 2] Lee Myung-bak - Park Geun-hye Support by Age

17th Presidential Election: Analysis of Cleavages 3.

7. Competition between Grand Nationals' Big Two and New Regional Cleavages: The Emergence of North-South Cleavages

Grand National Party's Big Two Candidates Reshape Presidential Support Landscape

Kim Jang-soo (Korea University)

The presidential candidacy competition within the Grand National Party (GNP) between former Seoul Mayor Lee Myung-bak and former party leader Park Geun-hye is fierce. The intra-party competition between the GNP's Big Two candidates has intensified since the April 25 by-election, which confirmed the widespread anti-GNP sentiment, comparable to the anti-Roh Moo-hyun sentiment. This survey suggests that the intra-party competition between the GNP's Big Two candidates may stem from more fundamental differences in their support bases, rather than being a temporary phenomenon related to the primary rules. The differences in support bases between the candidates are linked to the emergence of North-South cleavages, replacing the existing East-West cleavages. In other words, there is a possibility that the difference in preferred candidates between the Seoul metropolitan area and non-metropolitan areas will be highlighted in this presidential election, rather than the East-West divide.

Candidate Lee Myung-bak receives overwhelming support, far exceeding the national average, in the Seoul metropolitan area. In Seoul, the support gap between the two candidates is threefold. In contrast, among non-metropolitan areas, support is only close to the national average in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, and in all other regions, support falls below the national average. The exact opposite phenomenon appears in the support distribution for Candidate Park Geun-hye. In all non-metropolitan regions except for the Honam region, her support exceeds the average, narrowing the gap with Candidate Lee Myung-bak. In summary, Candidate Park Geun-hye shows strength in the GNP's traditional regional bases of Yeongnam and Chungcheong, while Candidate Lee Myung-bak's high approval ratings are attributed to overwhelming support in the Seoul metropolitan area, which was previously considered a close contest between parties.

The traditional East-West regional cleavage is assessed to be significantly weakened compared to past elections. In the Honam region, contrary to national preferences, support for pro-government candidates is relatively strong, but support for Candidate Lee Myung-bak reaches 30%. Furthermore, the survey results showing the combined support for the GNP's Big Two candidates exceeding 60% in the Chungcheong region demonstrate that the assertion that Chungcheong is being incorporated into the Western bloc, a pro-government support base, lacks realistic grounds.

Candidate Lee Myung-bak's high approval ratings stem from overwhelming support from voters who lead public opinion, specifically in the Seoul metropolitan area geographically, and among the 30-40s white-collar demographic by age and occupation. This allows for diametrically opposed predictions regarding future prospects. First, if a strong candidate emerges from the pro-government camp while the GNP's outdated practices remain unreformed, there is a possibility that Lee Myung-bak's current support base will significantly weaken. Conversely, if the current trend continues, it is also possible to predict that Lee Myung-bak will expand the external reach of the GNP's traditional support base.

[Table 1] Comparison of Support Rates for Candidates Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye by Region

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[Figure 1] Difference in support rates for candidates Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye by region.