[Public Opinion Briefing 15-4] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment 3

[Public Opinion Briefing 15] Grand National Party Primary and Voter Support Fluctuations

[1] Analysis of Voter Presidential Candidate Support Fluctuations and Support Base Changes - Jeong Han-wool

[2] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment 1 Through Panel Surveys - Kim Seong-tae

[3] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment 2 Through Panel Surveys - Lee Hyun-woo

[4] Once Progressive, Always Progressive? Once Conservative, Always Conservative? - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The Grand National Party Primary, and After? - Kwon Hyuk-yong

[6] The Pro-Government Camp: Should They Unify? If So, How? - Seo Hyun-jin

[7] Evaluation of the Grand National Party's Candidate Vetting Activities - Lim Seong-hak

4. Once Progressive, Always Progressive? Once Conservative, Always Conservative?

Jeong Han-wool (Deputy Director, EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center)

□ No Change in Overall Ideological Distribution, but Individual Shifts Occur:

One in Two Changed Their Ideology Over Four Months

□ Difference Between Individual Ideological Tendencies and Civic Group Ideological Tendencies: General Public's Progressive Segment Shows Higher Support for FTA

□ Ideological Polarization Phenomenon Also Persists

Political ideology is known to serve as a consistent standard for value judgments on various issues for individuals. Consequently, it can lead to the misconception that those with progressive tendencies will always take a progressive stance, and those with conservative ideological tendencies will always take a conservative stance. Looking solely at the distribution of responses to the question about one's own ideological tendency, in the first survey in April, 29.2% were progressive, 42.1% (1,203 individuals) were moderate, and 28.7% (821 individuals) were conservative. In the second survey in August, the distribution was 28.4% progressive, 42.2% moderate, and 29.4% conservative, showing seemingly little change.

Between the first survey conducted in late April and the second survey conducted in August, only half of the respondents answered that their ideological tendency remained the same. In the first and second surveys, the proportion of individuals who consistently identified as progressive was 14.3% (409 individuals) out of a total of 2,860 respondents, while those who consistently identified as moderate were 22.6% (646 individuals), and those who consistently identified as conservative were only 13.5%. The remaining half could be confirmed to be shifting across the three ideological tendencies. Notably, within a mere four months, the combined proportion of respondents who shifted from progressive to conservative or from conservative to progressive reached 10% (302 individuals).

Equally important as the ideological shifts observed among individuals is the difference between their perceived ideological stances and the ideological stances demonstrated by various civic and labor organizations. Regarding the government's trade liberalization policies, including the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which has recently become a contentious issue, major progressive civic groups oppose it. However, among the general public, the progressive segment showed 65.6% support for the current government's liberalization policies (18.6% advocating for more active liberalization, 43.3% advocating for maintaining the current pace). Only 35.1% responded that the pace should be slowed or the policy abolished. This result is not different from the 66% support for liberalization policies among the conservative segment.

Of course, when looking solely at the positive evaluation of the inter-Korean summit, there is still an ideological gap in perception, with 75.4% of progressives, 66% of moderates, and 61.4% of conservatives holding positive views. However, the fact that today's progressive may be tomorrow's conservative, and tomorrow's progressive may be today's conservative, and that past ideologies can change to present ideologies is a noteworthy finding.

[Table 1] Changes in Subjective Ideological Tendency Between 1st and 2nd Surveys (%)

[Figure 1] Stance on the South Korean Government's Trade Liberalization Policy (FTA) (%)

: Support for the Current Government's Trade Liberalization Policy and Stance on Strengthening Liberalization Policies

[Figure 2] Proportion of Positive Views (Very Positive + Somewhat Positive) on the Inter-Korean Summit (%)