Opinion Briefing 18-3: The Meaning of the 17th Presidential Election: The Ideological Landscape of Korean Society Over the Past Five Years

Opinion Briefing 18: "Analysis of Candidate Support Bases in a 1-Strong, 2-Moderate Race and Presidential Election Outlook"

[1] A Strange Election: The Voting Choices of the Core Supporters of the Pan-Opposition Camp - Kim Min-jeon

[2] A Race for Second Place No Less Intense Than the Race for First - Lee Hyun-woo

[3] [Appendix] The 17th Presidential Election Viewed Through the Ideological Landscape: An Election Outlook Based on the 4th Survey - Jeong Han-wool

3. The Meaning of the 17th Presidential Election: The Ideological Landscape of Korean Society Over the Past Five Years

Jeong Han-wool (Senior Researcher)

1. Ideological Attitude Changes in Korean Society Over Five YearsWhile a gradual moderate-conservative shift is observed in the security domain, a rapid spread of deregulation discourse is evident in the market (chaebol regulation) domain. Over the past five years, the following ideological attitude changes have been confirmed in Korean society. Notably, a general conservative trend is observed in attitudes toward traditional security issues such as relations with the US and North Korea. However, there is a difference in the public opinion distribution on issues related to the US, where public opinion opposing a departure from the US-centered alliance relationship still constitutes the majority, and issues related to North Korea, where a conservative stance emphasizing cautious support for North Korea is the majority.

Crucially, perceptions of chaebol regulation have significantly changed over the past five years. In the 2002 JoongAng Ilbo ideological survey, 49.7% advocated for regulating chaebol reform, while 49.6% favored easing or abolishing regulations, resulting in a near-even split. However, the results of the 2007 Presidential Panel Survey in November show that despite worsening public opinion toward corporations due to incidents like the Samsung slush fund scandal, a majority favors easing regulations on chaebol reform.

These perceptions of chaebol regulation reflect ideological attitudes toward the market and state regulation, as well as perceptions of corporations in Korean society. They indicate that public economic perceptions have largely shifted toward neoliberalism or economic growth-first perspectives over the past five years. Due to this trend of changing perceptions, many voters prioritize policy areas closely related to daily life, such as employment policy (24.1%), real estate policy (21.0%), and education policy (18.1%), as the most important policy areas for the 17th presidential election. Conversely, only a very small number of respondents considered policy areas that are sources of ideological conflict, such as North Korea policy (5.2%) and US relations (2.4%), or macroeconomic policy areas like finance and taxation, as priorities.

Policy Areas Prioritized in the 17th Presidential Election

Decreased desire for US independence, increased support for strengthening alliance

Decreased support for North Korea aid, decreased maintenance and expansion

Significantly increased desire to reduce or abolish chaebol regulations, decreased desire to maintain or strengthen current levels

□ Problem Statement: A Hypothesis for Interpreting Changes in the Ideological Landscape of Korean SocietyIn the past, voters primarily considered their stance on security issues, particularly the ROK-US alliance and North Korea, when positioning themselves ideologically. Recently, various issue axes are overlapping or intersecting, leading to multidimensional differentiation. The Western ideological distinction between economic pragmatism and market discipline versus state discipline has begun to influence voters' ideological attitudes. If we categorize the ideological attitudes of Korean voters along the two axes of security and economy, they can be divided into four types: security conservative-market conservative, security progressive-market conservative, security conservative-market progressive, and security progressive-market progressive. In 2002, the progressive stance (breaking away from the alliance) strengthened in security issues, while opinions on market regulation were sharply divided. In 2007, conversely, security issues are rebalancing, while the market conservative stance critical of market regulation is strengthening.

We hypothesize that the current situation, where security issues are evenly split between conservatives and progressives while market-conservative attitudes are spreading, is one of the reasons why candidates representing conservatives can remain competitive in the 17th presidential election despite the differentiation, and continue to vie for the lead without facing significant challenges from reformist progressive forces. A more definitive verification process will be presented through further research.

Ideological Landscape Classification by Ideological Classification

2. Analysis of Presidential Election Variables1. Lee Myung-bak's BBK Scandal: How Far Will It Go?



The controversy over Lee Myung-bak's ethics is acting as a factor for defection. Support dropped from 54.7% in the October 3rd survey to 41.7% in the 4th survey, a decrease of 15 percentage points.

Evaluation of Lee Myung-bak's ethics: "Significantly declined from 'average' (5.1) to 'unethical' (4.1)"



This survey tracked changes in ideological and ethical evaluations of candidates. While the ideological evaluations of each candidate showed little difference from the 3rd survey conducted in October, negative evaluations of Lee Myung-bak's ethics significantly increased. This appears to be the result of negative public opinion forming regarding Lee Myung-bak's ethics due to recent issues such as his children's false employment, Hanyang University lecture fees, and the BBK scandal. However, Lee Hoi-chang's ethical evaluation also stands at only an 'average' (5.1 points) level, making it difficult to claim he has a strong advantage in ethics. It is evident that Lee Hoi-chang's ethical evaluation is not very favorable due to his reversal of his decision to run for president for the third time.

In fact, among the supporters who backed Lee Myung-bak in the 3rd survey, 30.1% (392 individuals) withdrew their support in the 4th survey, while 69.9% (910 individuals) of the 1,302 Lee Myung-bak supporters in the 3rd survey expressed their continued intention to support him. When asked about the reasons for defection among the 392 individuals who withdrew their support, 69.5% cited disappointment with the candidate's ethics. Lee Hoi-chang is the primary beneficiary of Lee Myung-bak's supporters withdrawing their support.



If the BBK allegations are proven true among current supporters, 24.6% (244 individuals) stated they would withdraw their support, similar to the 1st survey, while 59.8% said they would continue to support him. This suggests that despite a significant drop in support, the BBK incident could still be a crucial variable. Of those intending to withdraw their support, 52.8% would shift to supporting Lee Hoi-chang, and 19.2% to supporting Chung Dong-young. Moon Kook-hyun would absorb only 11.9%, and Kwon Young-gil 5.9%.

Is the undecided voter pool increasing?



Of the undecided voters in the 3rd survey, 20% supported Lee Hoi-chang in the 4th survey, while only 10% moved to Lee Myung-bak, showing a similar absorption rate of undecided voters as Chung Dong-young. Panel survey results show that the undecided voter pool decreased from 17.2% (412 individuals) in the 3rd survey to 15.8% (376 individuals) in the 4th survey. Of the 412 individuals, 45% still have not decided on a candidate in the 4th survey. Conversely, 55% of those who had a decided candidate in the 3rd survey have newly decided on a candidate. On the other hand, among the 1,970 respondents who had a decided candidate in the 3rd survey, 190 individuals (9.6%) have become undecided.

Reasons for Lee Myung-bak's defection from 3rd to 4th survey (392 individuals, open-ended response)

Meanwhile, along with the decline in Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings, the spread of negative public opinion regarding the Grand Canal project, which Lee Hoi-chang is promoting, is also noteworthy.

Changes in Support for and Opposition to the Grand Canal Project on the Korean Peninsula

2. The Impact of the Lee Hoi-chang Variable



His strength lies in evenly absorbing around 10% from the support bases of all political forces.

His absorption rate of undecided voters is the highest at 20%.



Furthermore, his strongest advantage is his highest absorption rate of undecided voters (those with no candidate to choose from) among the current primary candidates. Of the 299 individuals who had no decided candidate in the 3rd survey, 41.5% still had not decided on a candidate in the 4th survey, while 20% shifted to supporting Lee Hoi-chang, and less than half of that, only 10% (29 individuals), shifted to supporting Lee Myung-bak. This trend is expected to serve as a factor for further increases in Lee Hoi-chang's approval ratings.



However, his absorption of Park Geun-hye's support base is insufficient.

"In the 2nd survey, 40.2% of Park Geun-hye's supporters backed Lee Myung-bak, and 28.2% backed Lee Hoi-chang."

The Influence of the Lee Hoi-chang Variable



First, regarding Lee Hoi-chang, he absorbed 13.9% of respondents who supported Lee Myung-bak in the 3rd survey, 9.4% of Chung Dong-young's supporters, 16.7% of Kwon Young-gil's supporters, and 11.4% of Moon Kook-hyun's supporters. Compared to the 2nd survey results in August, absorbing only 28.2% of Park Geun-hye's support base can be seen as the core reason for his initial struggles. In the 2nd survey in August, 40.2% of Park Geun-hye's supporters backed Lee Myung-bak, and 28.2% backed Lee Hoi-chang. This implies that if Park Geun-hye actively supports Lee Myung-bak, it could significantly impact Lee Hoi-chang's approval ratings.



What is Lee Hoi-chang's path forward? If Lee Myung-bak maintains his approval ratings, 19.3% of Lee Hoi-chang's supporters believe he "should withdraw."



If Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings are maintained, 68.8% of Lee Hoi-chang's supporters favor him completing the election, while 19.3% believe he should withdraw, suggesting that the pressure for unification is relatively low. However, among the reasons for supporting Lee Hoi-chang, 35.3% of continuous supporters cite Lee Myung-bak's perceived instability, while only 27.3% cite Lee Hoi-chang's claimed moral superiority. Only 17.2% responded that he truly represents conservatives.



Specifically, regarding the claim that "Lee Myung-bak's stance on North Korea is ambiguous," which he uses as a basis for his candidacy, only 39% of conservatives agree, and even among Lee Hoi-chang's supporters, 44% agree. As Lee Hoi-chang, who received the most conservative evaluation (6.4) in ideological assessments, is closest to the ideological position of conservatives (7.2), while the average ideological score for the general public is 5.2, he is significantly lower than Lee Myung-bak (5.4). This is expected to create a dilemma where focusing on consolidating the conservative base alienates support from the centrist forces.

If Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings are maintained, what will Lee Hoi-chang do? [Only Lee Hoi-chang supporters, 349 individuals]

3. Possibility and Expectations for a Unified Pan-Government Candidate



Following the failed attempt at unification between Chung Dong-young and Lee In-je, expectations for pan-government unification have cooled.

Chung Dong-young and Lee In-je supporters agree on unification: 71-75%, Moon Kook-hyun supporters: 55.1%



First, looking at the trend in support for the necessity of pan-government unification, the proportion agreeing with pan-government unification increased in October. However, in this survey, it dropped back to 44.2%, indicating that public sentiment toward candidate unification is becoming indifferent.

Furthermore, looking at the changes in the total support for candidates classified as pan-government, while no candidate comparable to Lee Myung-bak has emerged since the first survey in April up to the third survey, the total support for candidates classified as pan-government has steadily increased: 10.4% → 15.2% → 24.8%. However, in this 4th survey, it slightly decreased to 23.9%, indicating a weakening of the impact of pan-government unification.

Changes in Total Support for Pan-Government Candidates

Moreover, the significant difference in opinion between supporters of Chung Dong-young and Moon Kook-hyun, who are considered potential candidates for unification, further dims the prospects for unification. While supporters of Chung Dong-young and Lee In-je have increased expectations for unification, support for unification among Moon Kook-hyun's supporters is declining.

Perception Gap Among Pan-Government Supporters Regarding Candidate Unification