[Public Opinion Briefing 20-5] 2007 Presidential Election: Internet's Influence Significantly Diminished

[Public Opinion Briefing 20] "The 17th Presidential Election Results and Predictions for the Next Political Landscape"

[1] Based on the current political landscape, the Grand National Party is nearing a two-thirds majority in the general election - Lee Hyun-woo

[2] Is Korean society becoming more conservative? - Seo Hyun-jin

[3] The post-election influence of the BBK scandal - Lim Sung-hak

[4] President-elect Lee Myung-bak's honeymoon effect - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The 17th Presidential Election and Media Effects - Kim Sung-tae

2007 Presidential Election: Internet's Influence Significantly Diminished

Kim Sung-tae (Professor, Department of Media and Communication, Korea University)

The 2002 presidential election is referred to as the "Internet Election." Netizens were the primary contributors to President Roh Moo-hyun's victory. However, the influence of the internet was relatively diminished in this election. In 2002, the amplification of anti-American sentiment due to the protest commemorating the deaths of Shim and Mi-sun, and the 댓글 (comment) debates among young netizens hoping for change amidst the reconciliation mood following the inter-Korean summit, were absent in this election.

Recently, in the U.S. general election, User-Created Content (UCC) played a decisive role in determining the success or failure of candidates, leading most campaigns to invest heavily in internet-based electioneering throughout the campaign period. However, Camp-Created Contents (CCC) videos, produced by the candidate camps for promotional purposes, were more prevalent than user-generated content, failing to capture public interest. The presidential election sections, extensively prepared by portal sites at the start of the election, also saw lower-than-expected visitor numbers.

According to a recent panel survey (SBS-JoongAng Ilbo-EAI), when asked "Through which media did you obtain the most information to choose your preferred candidate during the election campaign period?", approximately 71% of voters chose traditional media such as television (54%) or newspapers (17%), while only 24% selected the internet. Comparing the importance of the internet by age group, respondents in their 20s answered that the internet was the most important source of election information (47%), while those in their 30s responded with 34%, those in their 40s with 17%, and those aged 50 and above with less than approximately 7%, indicating a rapid decrease in the importance of the internet as a source of information for choosing a candidate as age increased. Conversely, television was chosen as the most important information source by over 50% across all age groups 30 and above. Newspapers were also chosen as the most important information source by over 20% among those aged 40 and above, a higher proportion than the internet.

Analysis of respondents who identified the internet as the most important information source revealed a relatively high proportion of individuals in white-collar occupations (47%) or students (57%). In terms of ideological orientation, those who identified as conservative cited television (54%) as approximately twice as important a medium compared to the internet (21%) and newspapers (20%). However, for those with progressive ideologies, the order was television (42%), internet (37%), and newspapers (16%), with a smaller gap.

Comparing voter turnout, 23% of respondents who answered they voted stated they relied most on the internet for information, whereas this proportion was 35% among those who answered they did not vote. Consequently, individuals who cited the internet as their most important source of election information were more likely to abstain from voting.

These figures can be considered further evidence of the internet's relatively diminished influence on the election results. Overall, regardless of ideological spectrum or voting participation, it can be indirectly inferred that the internet's influence as a primary information source weakened in this election compared to the 2002 election, while the importance of traditional media such as television and newspapers increased again. Furthermore, the activities of progressive netizens in their 20s and 30s and civic groups, which led internet public opinion through spontaneously formed political fan clubs and significantly influenced the election landscape in the previous election, were also absent this time.

What, then, are the reasons for the relative decline in the internet's influence in this presidential election? Above all, compared to the previous election, there were almost no generational or ideological debates led by netizens, such as old vs. new generation or conservative vs. progressive, or debates about stability vs. change. Coupled with the candidates' incessant negative campaigning and the significant gap in approval ratings between the leading candidates, the interest of netizens, particularly young netizens, in the election demonstrably decreased compared to the previous election. Stricter regulations, such as the Public Official Election Act prohibiting the posting of internet comments supporting or opposing specific candidates or parties, and the real-name comment system, significantly curtailed the activities in political discussion forums, which had been a primary channel for netizens' political participation in the previous election.

Additionally, UCC, dominated by campaign promotional materials, led to a lack of voter interest. Most importantly, since the last presidential election, our society has experienced the immense destructive power that an issue raised by a single netizen via the internet can wield. This could be a source of fear for both candidates and voters, and as a result, doubts about information reliability are bound to increase. The "BBK" video, which surfaced three days before the election and was actively uploaded online, instead strengthened the solidarity of Lee Myung-bak's supporters, indicating this trend and serving as a lesson learned from the 2002 presidential election. In this regard, the decrease in the internet's influence in this election is unlikely to be coincidental.

[Table 1] Presidential Election Information Acquisition Media by Socio-Political Characteristics (%)