[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 20-2] Is Korean Society Becoming More Conservative?

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 20] "The 17th Presidential Election Results and Predictions for Future Political Changes"

[1] Based on the current situation, the Grand National Party is close to securing two-thirds of the seats in the general election - Lee Hyun-woo

[2] Is Korean Society Becoming More Conservative? - Seo Hyun-jin

[3] The influence of BBK after the presidential election - Lim Sung-hak

[4] President-elect Lee Myung-bak's honeymoon effect - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The 17th Presidential Election and Media Effects - Kim Sung-tae

Is Korean Society Becoming More Conservative?

Seo Hyun-jin (Department of Social Education, Sungshin Women's University)

□ Trend of Conservatism among Korean Voters

A notable change in the survey results from the first round in April to the present is the trend of conservatism in voter ideological orientations. In the survey immediately after the presidential election, 43.3% of respondents identified their ideological orientation as conservative, approximately double the 22.5% who identified as progressive. Among these, 28% had also identified as conservative in April, fewer than the 30% progressive and 41.2% moderate at the time. However, the proportion of voters identifying as conservative increased to 35% in the third survey in October and reached 43% in December, an increase of as much as 15% over eight months.

Among voters who identified as conservative immediately after the election, the proportion who were moderate (37.2%) and even progressive (21.5%) in the early stages of the election was considerably high. In each survey period, over 25% of moderate or progressive voters switched to conservative, while only slightly over 10% of conservative voters switched to progressive or moderate. In other words, the proportion of conservative voters steadily increased during the election campaign period.

[Figure 1] Changes in Ideological Orientation by Panel Survey Wave (%)

□ Voter assessment of Lee Myung-bak's ideological orientation also shifted towards conservatism

This trend of conservatism emerged alongside changes in voter assessments of Lee Myung-bak's ideological orientation. Voter assessments of each candidate's ideological orientation were surveyed from the third round onwards. Candidate Chung Dong-young received an average score of 4.4, while candidate Lee Myung-bak received 5.4. In the fourth survey, the assessments of these candidates were similar, with the newly emerged candidate Lee Hoi-chang receiving the most conservative rating at 6.4. However, in the sixth survey, while voter assessments of Chung Dong-young and Lee Hoi-chang showed little change, the assessment of Lee Myung-bak shifted significantly towards conservatism. This is similar to the phenomenon where the average ideological score of voters themselves gradually shifted towards conservatism, from 4.9 in the first round to 5.5 in the sixth round.

[Table 1] Changes in Ideological Assessment of Voters and Major Candidates by Panel Survey Wave (Points)

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* Numbers in parentheses indicate the difference from the voter's average score; a minus sign (-) indicates more progressive than voters, and a plus sign (+) indicates more conservative.

** 0-4: Progressive, 5: Moderate, 6-10: Conservative. Closer to 0 (very progressive) means more progressive, and closer to 10 (very conservative) means more conservative.

More interestingly, the average score for candidate Lee Myung-bak was consistently closest to the average voter score in each survey period. This means voters perceived Lee Myung-bak as the candidate most similar to their own orientation, which is presumed to have ultimately had a significant impact on his election victory.

Indeed, among conservative voters, support for candidate Lee increased from the first to the fifth survey. Among progressive voters, 34.2% voted for candidate Lee, while 62.1% of conservative voters cast their ballot for him. Furthermore, tracking the ideological orientation of Lee Myung-bak's supporters during the election period shows a steady increase: the proportion of conservatives was only 28.9% in the first survey, but rose to 32.7% in the second, 40.6% in the third, and reached 51.3% in the sixth survey. The increase in the proportion of conservative supporters for Lee Myung-bak closely coincides with the increase in the proportion of conservative voters.

This shift may stem from candidate Lee Myung-bak's strategic move towards conservatism, emphasizing a pragmatic approach in line with the conservative trend in public opinion. Alternatively, it could be seen as the 'Lee Myung-bak effect,' arising as he focused more intensely on mobilizing conservative voters in response to the strong attacks from Lee Hoi-chang, who claimed to be the true conservative.

What is important is that, regardless of whether the public became more conservative due to the Lee Myung-bak effect or whether candidate Lee capitalized on the shifting conservative public opinion, there is a congruence between the societal conservatism and the public's expectations of the president-elect. If the majority of the public believes that the president shares their orientation and will pursue policies and tasks accordingly, they will offer unwavering support. This support is expected to act as a positive factor, enabling the president to focus on building a solid policy foundation and ensuring political stability, thereby avoiding the honeymoon period effect.