Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 26-2: Lessons from Declining Voter Turnout – The Unvoiced Sentiments of Non-Voters Should Not Be Ignored

Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 26: "Post-General Election Political Climate: The Need for Harmonious Leadership"

[1] General Election Public Sentiment as Seen Through Split Voting – Kim Min-jeon

[2] Lessons from Declining Voter Turnout, The Unvoiced Sentiments of Non-Voters – Lee Hyun-woo

[3] The Future of GNP Defectors and President Lee's Leadership – Seo Hyun-jin

[4] Strong Caution Against Pushing Forward with the Grand Korean Waterway Project – Yoo Sung-jin

Lessons from Declining Voter Turnout

The Unvoiced Sentiments of Non-Voters Should Not Be Ignored

Lee Hyun-woo (Sogang University, Political Science and International Relations)

• Simulation Results of Non-Voters Participating in Voting Show Grand National Party Losing Majority

• Party vote decreases by 3 seats, Pro-Park Geun-hye United Party loses 2 seats, Creative Korea Party and MDP each gain 1 seat, possible 3 seats for the New Progressive Party

In the last presidential election, over 80% of voters thought a 63% turnout was low, and nearly 90% expressed concern about the continuous decline in voter turnout. However, the turnout for the recent general election recorded a historic low of 46%. The political distrust, where 93.3% of citizens believe 'politicians' actions after being elected differ from their campaign promises' and over 81% agree that 'a small number of people control the government and politics,' is reflected in this low voter turnout.

However, declining voter turnout exacerbates differences in turnout among different demographic groups, leading to issues of representation. As shown in the figure, the gap in voter turnout widens with age as turnout decreases. In the 1997 presidential election, with a turnout of 80.7%, the difference in turnout between those in their 20s and 50s was 21.7 percentage points. However, in the 2006 local elections, turnout fell to 68.2%, and the turnout difference between these age groups widened to 34.4 percentage points. Foreign examples show that when voter turnout falls below 50%, the turnout difference between age groups can more than double.

[Figure 1] Trend of Voter Turnout and Turnout Gap between 50s and 20s Since 1996

Elections are not merely opportunities to elect representatives but also chances to confirm the will of the voters. Therefore, in this general election where more than half of the eligible voters abstained, we must understand the intentions of these non-voters. One method is to predict how the election results might have changed if all of them had voted.

Differences in opinion between voters and non-voters appear in several areas. Firstly, the positive approval rating of the President among non-voters is 55%, which is more than 10 percentage points lower than among voters. The proportion of non-voters who believe the ruling party should be supported for stable state administration is 28.5%, significantly lower than the 44.8% among voters. The rate of optimistic prediction that the executive branch will cooperate efficiently with the National Assembly, given the election results, is also 13 percentage points lower among non-voters. This indicates that non-voters hold a more critical view of the ruling party.

The ideological average of non-voters is 5.1, which is 0.5 points lower than the ideological average of voters. They evaluate politicians such as Moon Kook-hyun, Sohn Hak-kyu, Kang Kum-sil, and Chung Dong-young more positively than voters do. Their favorability rating for President Lee Myung-bak is 5.6, indicating slight positivity, but it is 0.7 points lower than the average for voters. Therefore, if these non-voters had all participated in the election, the public will expressed through the election would have significantly changed.

The table compares the actual party vote with the seat distribution assuming 100% voter turnout. If all eligible voters had participated, the Grand National Party's seats would have decreased by 3, and the Pro-Park Geun-hye United Party's seats by 2. Instead, the New Progressive Party, which did not secure any seats due to a 0.06% deficit in support, would have won 3 seats. The Creative Korea Party and the Democratic Labor Party would each have gained an additional seat. This again confirms that a significant number of voters with progressive leanings abstained. Calculating seat distribution based on 100% voter participation for district seats is not feasible due to the numerous variables involved.

While the ruling Grand National Party benefited from the election results due to the low voter turnout, the government could face significant difficulties if it fails to seriously consider the political dissatisfaction with the ruling party among the non-voters who did not participate in the election. This is because it has been confirmed that the majority of non-voters abstained not because they are potential supporters of the ruling party, but because they could not find a satisfactory opposition party.

[Figure 2] Simulation Results of Seat Allocation Based on Non-Voters' Participation in Voting