[Public Opinion Briefing 40-3] Focus on Restoring Political Trust Rather Than Approval Ratings

[Public Opinion Briefing 41] The Second Year of the MB Administration: Challenges and Public Opinion

[1] The MB Administration's Dual Challenges in its Second Year

[2] How to Resolve Economic Issues? "Pursue Both Economic Polarization Resolution and Economic Growth"

[3] For the Lee Myung-bak Administration to Succeed in Revitalizing the Economy...

[4] Security Threats the MB Administration Must Address

For the Lee Myung-bak Administration to Succeed in Revitalizing the Economy...

Rather than being swayed by fluctuations in approval ratings, efforts should be focused on expanding the foundation of political trust.

- High distrust leads to blind cynicism towards government policies and reduces policy effectiveness.

- Government approval: 32.2%, Government trust: 29.4%, Positive evaluation of economic crisis response: 20.3%

The Lee Myung-bak administration, launched with the nationwide expectation of revitalizing the economy, rapidly became the administration with the lowest approval ratings in history compared to previous administrations, due to key personnel appointments and the mad cow disease beef import controversy early in its term. However, starting from the six-month mark after the candlelight protests subsided, approval ratings have shown a slight rebound, reaching 32.2% at present, on the eve of its second year. This figure is comparable to the approval ratings of former President Roh Moo-hyun during his second year in office. [Figure 1]

In conjunction with this recovery in approval ratings, the Lee Myung-bak administration has been actively pursuing policies characteristic of its administration, such as resolving the economic crisis from the latter half of 2008, the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project, and the revision of the Media Law. The Blue House and the Grand National Party are inwardly pleased with the changes in approval ratings and are seeking ways to boost President Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings, looking towards the April 29 by-elections in the short term and the 2010 local elections in the long term.

While it is inevitable for politicians to consider their approval ratings, attaching excessive importance to them can lead to a loss of direction in state management. This is because government approval ratings are subject to variable factors such as the honeymoon effect (high approval ratings at the beginning of a term), the rally-round-the-flag effect (rallying support for the government during external crises), and objective changes in economic conditions.

Democratic theory and the experience of Western democracies suggest that governments should focus on the level of political trust to garner stable public support and participation, rather than being preoccupied with temporary fluctuations in approval ratings. Political trust is the psychological belief that the government or politicians are pursuing policies that align with the public interest; it is not easily formed, but once established, it is not easily dismantled. Conversely, political trust is formed through long-term evaluations of both the policy-making process (procedure) and the outcomes (product). A policy failure or two may lead to a drop in approval ratings, but it does not necessarily result in political distrust. However, if such failures are repeated and the voices of the people calling for improvement are ignored, the government will become an object of distrust and cynicism. In other words, it becomes an entity that is disliked regardless of its actions. At this stage, the public tends to oppose any policy the government implements without even examining its content.



The Lee Myung-bak administration, with four years remaining in its term, needs to reflect on the precedent set by the Roh Moo-hyun administration. President Roh Moo-hyun's approval ratings dropped to the 30% range within a year of his inauguration, but after the impeachment attempt by the opposition party, his approval ratings recovered to over 50% within just three months, and the ruling Uri Party experienced a turnaround by securing a majority in the general elections. However, after the impeachment, the Roh Moo-hyun administration experienced a period of fluctuating approval ratings and faced governance challenges that necessitated consideration of a coalition with the Grand National Party in the latter half of its term. This can be attributed to the forceful pursuit of policies with strong ideological leanings, such as the revision of the Private School Act, the resolution of past injustices, and the revision of the National Security Law, which provoked opposition from the opposition parties. Furthermore, dismissing the public's complaints about a deteriorating economy as 'conservative attacks' rapidly eroded public trust in the government [Figure 1]. Indeed, in the Power Institutions Trust and Influence Survey, conducted annually by EAI and the JoongAng Ilbo since 2004, while the President's approval ratings fluctuated, public trust in the Blue House consistently remained in the lower tier (17th-21st out of 25 surveyed institutions) [Figure 2].

The Lee Myung-bak administration, too, needs to focus on the level of public trust in the government, rather than on fluctuating approval ratings. The percentage of people who trust the Lee Myung-bak administration is currently 29.8%, slightly below the government approval rating of 32.2%. Based solely on government approval ratings, the current economic crisis presents both a challenge and an opportunity for President Lee Myung-bak. This is because the public is viewing the opposition parties and certain social forces that obstruct the ruling party and government with disapproval as the economic crisis deepens. In fact, although the opposition parties and civil society have launched fierce attacks against the ruling party and government, triggered by incidents such as the Yongsan tragedy and the revision of the Media Law, the fact that this has not led to a drop in approval ratings can also be seen as a result of the rally-round-the-flag effect [Figure 3].

However, even if government approval ratings rise in the future, if the level of political trust cannot be raised to the same extent, the administration may follow the same path as the Roh Moo-hyun administration. In reality, the presence or absence of trust in the government significantly influences the evaluation of the government's policy capabilities. Among those who trust the government, 47.4% responded that it is handling the economic crisis well, while 52.6% responded that it is handling it poorly, indicating a close split. However, among those who distrust the government, a staggering 90.6% overwhelmingly responded that it is handling the crisis poorly [Figure 4]. Ultimately, for the current administration to rebound in approval ratings and be recognized as a successful government by pursuing the economic revitalization and election pledges it has made, the restoration of public trust in the government must be a prerequisite. Instead of being swayed by short-term fluctuations in government approval ratings, it is necessary to prioritize the consensus demands of the public in the policy-making process.

[Figure 1] Trend of Approval Ratings for Former President Roh and President Lee Myung-bak at the Same Point in Time (%)

[Figure 2] Changes in Blue House Trust Ranking Among 25 Power Institutions

[Figure 3] Lee Myung-bak Administration's Government Approval Rating, Government Trust Rating, and Positive Evaluation of Economic Crisis Response Rate (%)

[Figure 4] Evaluation of Government's Response to Economic Crisis Based on Trust in Government (%)