[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 31-1] The Void in Global Leadership

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 31] The Void in Global/Regional Leadership

[1] The Void in Global Leadership

[2] Leadership Competition in the Asian Region

I. The Void in Global Leadership

• State of global leadership vacuum: No trusted leader exists.

• 67% of global citizens and 56% of Americans do not trust Bush; no alternatives exist.

• UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon: Highest trust at 35%.

In the international arena where the sharp interests of various nations clash, the leadership of great powers has played a crucial role in resolving and mediating these conflicts. It is a fact that the leadership of great powers like the United States has exerted greater influence in conflict resolution and mediation processes than international organizations such as the UN, established for the peace and prosperity of the international community. A leadership vacuum implies an increased likelihood that minor interstate conflicts could escalate into serious international disputes or that issues that could be resolved in the short term may persist long-term.


A public opinion survey conducted among 19,751 individuals in 20 countries revealed that the absence of trustworthy leadership in the international community is a serious problem. We asked how favorably people around the world perceive the actions of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, U.S. President Bush, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, French President Sarkozy, former Russian President Putin, Chinese President Hu Jintao, Iranian President Ahmadinejad, and Pakistani President Musharraf. For the eight world leaders included in this survey, more respondents expressed distrust than trust.

Distrust in U.S. President Bush, the world's strongest power, is particularly pronounced. Averaging the survey results from 19 countries excluding the United States, a significant 67% held a negative view of President Bush's leadership, with only 23% expressing trust. This figure is considerably higher than the negative response rates for Iranian President Ahmadinejad or Pakistani President Musharraf, who are currently causing international concern due to nuclear development and testing. Negative responses for President Ahmadinejad and President Musharraf were 52% and 54%, respectively [Figure 1].

Distrust in President Bush was particularly high in Muslim countries in the Middle East such as Palestine (95%), Egypt (92%), Jordan (88%), and Turkey (83%), as well as in countries considered America's backyard, such as Argentina (84%) and Mexico (83%). Critically, the assessment from citizens of traditional Western allies like the United Kingdom (77%) and France (85%) was also very cool. However, negative responses were relatively lower in Asian countries.

Even among Americans, only 42% expressed trust, while 56% indicated distrust, suggesting that President Bush is experiencing a crisis of confidence both domestically and internationally. This can be interpreted as a reflection of global rejection of the U.S.'s pro-Israel policy during the Israel-Middle East conflict and its unilateral foreign policy following the 9/11 terrorist attacks [Figure 2].

However, the lack of alternatives is also a problem. Distrust responses for Russian President Putin, who is at odds with the West, and French President Sarkozy, who has been involved in various controversies, were both 49%. Distrust responses for Chinese President Hu Jintao, considered a potential competitor to the U.S., and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who succeeded Tony Blair, were 43% each, indicating a relatively lower degree of distrust. However, trust in President Hu Jintao was only 28%, and trust in Prime Minister Brown was 30%, suggesting they may lack the qualifications to act as credible mediators in international disputes.

Ban Ki-moon, who has served as UN Secretary-General since 2007, is relatively the most trusted leader. Trust responses stood at 35%, while distrust responses were 38%. Responses indicating 'don't know' were 27%, suggesting his recognition in the international community is still low. While Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has the lowest level of international veto opinion, efforts are needed to gain broader international trust to strengthen his role in mediating international conflicts and resolving issues.

The world is suffering from various factors causing anxiety, ranging from physical threats like terrorism to natural disasters such as climate change and environmental issues, diseases like pandemics, and soaring oil prices. As confirmed by this survey, the absence of trustworthy leadership appears to be exacerbating these anxieties. This is why the entire world is paying attention to the U.S. presidential election scheduled for the end of the year. There are mixed concerns and expectations as to whether the next U.S. president will follow in the footsteps of President Bush, who has become an object of global distrust, or emerge as a new focal point of leadership. Regardless of performance, the dynamics of power place the United States at the center of global leadership.

[Figure 1] Average Trust Rating (%) of Major World Leaders in 19 Countries

Note 1. The trust rate is the sum of "strongly trust" and "somewhat trust" responses, and the distrust rate is the sum of "somewhat distrust" and "strongly distrust" responses.

Note 2. The figures for each national leader represent the average response rate from citizens of the other 19 countries, excluding responses from their own citizens.

[Figure 2] Distrust (%) in Bush's Leadership