[Public Opinion Briefing No. 26-1] Public Sentiment in the General Election as Seen Through Split Voting

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 26] "Post-General Election Political Climate: The Need for Harmonious Leadership"

[1] Public Sentiment in the General Election as Seen Through Split Voting - Kim Min-jeon

[2] Lessons from Declining Voter Turnout: The Hidden Sentiment of Non-Voters - Lee Hyun-woo

[3] The Future Path of Grand National Party Defectors and President Lee's Leadership - Seo Hyun-jin

[4] Strong Caution Against Pushing Forward with the Grand Korean Waterway Project - Yoo Sung-jin

Public Sentiment in the General Election as Seen Through Split Voting

Kim Min-jeon (Kyung Hee University)

• Golden Ratio - Proportional Representation Party's Success, Possible Through Split Voting

• Grand National Party Supporters - Support for Proportional Representation Party in Proportional Voting 10.4%

  Proportional Representation Party Supporters - Support for Grand National Party in District Voting 43.9%

Due to the election results that significantly deviated from the predictions of many and the public's attention to the conflict between political forces after the election, there is a crucial issue within the election results that has not received sufficient attention but should not be overlooked. This is the fact that the Grand National Party's vote share fell far short of its party support rate, while the Proportional Representation Party achieved more than expected. While the discrepancy between district voting and proportional representation can be attributed to the characteristics of the small constituency system, which favors large parties and parties with concentrated regional votes, an equally important cause is that voters actively engage in split voting.

As shown in [Figure 1], there are significant differences between the party support rates of each party, the proportion of votes cast for parties in district elections, and the proportion of votes cast for parties in proportional representation elections as revealed in the general election panel survey. Overall, large parties show higher vote shares in district elections, and minor parties gain slightly more votes in proportional representation elections; however, the difference is much more pronounced for supporters of the Grand National Party and the Proportional Representation Party.

The answer to this can be found in [Figure 2]. While 80.5% of Grand National Party supporters voted for the Grand National Party candidate in district elections, only 73.9% of respondents voted for the Grand National Party in proportional representation elections, with 10.4% voting for the Proportional Representation Party. Meanwhile, 43.9% of Proportional Representation Party supporters voted for the Grand National Party in district elections, while only 18.8% of respondents voted for the Proportional Representation Party. Among Proportional Representation Party supporters, 86.5% supported the Proportional Representation Party in proportional representation voting, while only 3.5% supported the Grand National Party. A considerable number of Grand National Party supporters split their votes, favoring the Proportional Representation Party in proportional representation elections, and a considerable number of Proportional Representation Party supporters split their votes, favoring the Grand National Party in district elections.

The characteristics of voters who cast their proportional representation votes for the Proportional Representation Party among Grand National Party supporters are those who are highly interested in the election, oppose the Grand Korean Waterway, agree with the opinion that the government's unilateral actions need to be checked, and frequently use internet media. [Table 1]

Of course, Grand National Party supporters were not the only ones who split their votes in the 18th general election. As revealed in [Table 2], nearly half of all respondents, 41%, engaged in split voting, with the proportion of split voting among supporters of minor parties and unaffiliated voters significantly exceeding the average. This appears to be a combination of passive split voting, where voters choose a candidate from another party when a candidate from their preferred minor party is not running in the district election, and active split voting, where voters choose a candidate with a higher chance of winning.

Overall, voters who identify their ideology as centrist and voters who evaluate the legislative activities of incumbent lawmakers negatively are more likely to engage in split voting. [Table 3]

[Figure 1] Party Support Rates, Proportion of Votes Cast for Parties in District Elections, and Proportion of Votes Cast for Parties in Proportional Representation Elections

[Figure 2] District and Proportional Representation Voting Status of Grand National Party and Proportional Representation Party Supporters

[Table 1] Split Voting Rates by General Election Issue and Internet Media Contact Frequency Among Grand National Party Supporters

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[Table 2] Split-Ticket Voting Rate by Party Supporter

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[Table 3] Ideological Self-Placement, Evaluation of Incumbent National Assembly, and Split-Ticket Voting

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