Public Opinion Briefing 24-1: The Two Pillars of Shifting Public Sentiment: Disappointment and the Desire for Restraint

Public Opinion Briefing No. 24: "Volatile Public Sentiment; Whether it Will Lead to Shifts in Vote Intentions Remains Uncertain"

Topic 1: The Two Pillars of Shifting Public Sentiment: Disappointment and the Desire for Restraint - Kwon Hyuk-yong

Topic 2: It is Difficult to Predict Whether Shifting Public Sentiment Will Translate into General Election Vote Intentions - Jeong Han-wool

Topic 3: Three Key Variables for Predicting General Election Outcomes - Kwon Hyuk-yong & Jeong Han-wool

The Two Pillars of Shifting Public Sentiment: Disappointment and the Desire for Restraint

Kwon Hyuk-yong (Korea University)

Following Lee Myung-bak's victory in the presidential election with a near-majority of the vote, the highest in history, most experts predicted an overwhelming victory for the Grand National Party (GNP) in the general election. The argument for a GNP landslide was based on the expectation that public sentiment that supported Lee Myung-bak in the presidential election would continue to support the GNP in the general election, as the general election was to be held shortly after the presidential inauguration. Considering the honeymoon effect, where the public supports a new president 초당파적으로 (non-partisanly) in the early days of their administration, projections of securing not only a majority of seats but even the two-thirds required for constitutional amendments seemed plausible.

Signs of Change: 36.3% of 2007 Presidential Election Lee Myung-bak Supporters Intend to Defect in General Election

However, with about 20 days remaining until the general election, signs of change in these projections are becoming evident. The general election panel survey reveals a significant defection among Lee Myung-bak's supporters. Among the 666 individuals who supported Lee Myung-bak in the last presidential election, only 424 (63.4%) stated they would support a GNP candidate in the upcoming general election; the remaining 36.3% indicated they would support candidates from other parties or had not yet decided. Furthermore, even among the nearly half of all voters who identify as GNP supporters (47.6%), one in five are withholding their support for GNP candidates in the current general election. Support for GNP candidates in district elections stands at only 39.8%, indicating a failure to fully retain the GNP's support base. This casts a shadow of doubt on the prediction of securing a majority of seats [Figure 1].

Why is this Defection Occurring? (1) Disappointment (2) Desire for Restraint

When asked for the reasons behind their decision to vote for a different party in the upcoming general election, respondents who supported Lee Myung-bak in the last presidential election cited 'to check the president's power' (40.3%) and 'disappointment with President Lee Myung-bak and his administration' (23.8%) as primary reasons. 'Disappointment with the Grand National Party' accounted for 13.4% of responses. Other reasons included 'because the party I currently support is doing well' (6%) and 'because I like the candidate I currently support' (8%). Ultimately, the defection phenomenon arises from a combination of disappointment with the Lee Myung-bak administration's governance and a sentiment for checks and balances. [Figure 2]

Disappointment

In a panel survey conducted immediately after the presidential election, 86% of respondents expressed high expectations for the Lee Myung-bak administration's governance. However, in the current survey, only 60.2% responded that it was performing well. The fact that 55% were critical of the Lee Myung-bak government's initial appointments, and that opposition to the administration's flagship projects, the Grand Korean Waterway and English-immersion education, stood at 57.8% and 49.7% respectively, exceeding support, is also a burden. While 55.5% of those who evaluated the government's performance positively indicated they would vote for a GNP candidate in the general election, only 12.1% of those who evaluated it negatively stated they would support a GNP candidate. Disappointment with the Lee Myung-bak administration thus becomes a factor in the decline of the GNP's support for the general election. [Figures 3, 4]



This stark polarization appears to be related to disappointment with the initial livelihood policies proposed by the Lee Myung-bak administration. When asked about prospects for resolving issues such as private education costs, economic polarization, and labor-management conflicts under the Lee Myung-bak administration, the proportion expecting improvement in private education costs, which are directly linked to people's livelihoods, sharply decreased from 20.3% immediately after the presidential election to 8.9%. Expectations for improvement in economic polarization also decreased from 46.4% to 37.8%. There was no significant change regarding inter-Korean relations and labor-management relations. [Figure 5]

Voters' evaluations of the nomination processes of each party also appear to have had an impact. While 49.3% expressed satisfaction with the nomination process of the United Democratic Party (UDP), satisfaction with the GNP's nomination process was only 40.3%. The UDP's nomination process was framed as principled by excluding key party officials, including DJ's confidants like Kim Hong-up and Park Jie-won, whereas the GNP was influenced by the frame of conflict between the pro-Park faction and the MB faction. In particular, in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, a support base for former party leader Park Geun-hye, satisfaction was only 37.3%, while dissatisfaction was highest at 46.9%. This is likely to act as a destabilizing factor for the GNP's seat acquisition in the Yeongnam region. [Figure 6]

Activation of the Desire for Checks and Balances

The sentiment for checks and balances is a mechanism that creates divided governments with a minority ruling party in most countries with presidential systems. Particularly, as expectations for President Lee Myung-bak have begun to wane, the argument for supporting the opposition party to prevent the ruling party and the president from acting unilaterally is gaining traction, replacing the argument for supporting the ruling party for national stability. In the current survey, 'national stability' was favored by 42.2% of all respondents, while 'checks and balances' was favored by 40.0%. This contrasts with the December survey, where stability was favored by 45.4% and checks by 34.6%, a difference of about 10 percentage points. [Figure 7]

Compared to the December survey, the 'checks and balances' sentiment has increased, primarily in the Seoul metropolitan area, Chungcheong region, and Honam region. Among younger demographics, those with higher incomes and education levels, or those who hold negative views of the Lee Myung-bak administration's governance, the sentiment for checks significantly outweighs the sentiment for stability. Considering that these regions and demographics were the traditional support bases for the former ruling party, the sentiment for checks is acting as a factor that mobilizes and re-attracts former ruling party supporters who had defected to the GNP. This is instilling a sense of crisis in the GNP and offering a glimmer of hope for the pessimistic Democratic Party. (See Tables 1 and 2).