[Public Opinion Brief No. 8] Christians Support Lee, Buddhists Support Park

[Public Opinion Brief No. 8] Religion and Politics: The Role of Religion in Political Analysis in Korea

[Topic 1] Korean Religions and Korean Politics

[Topic 2] Do Islam and Western Civilization Clash?

Topic 1: Distinct Differences in Political and Social Perceptions by Religion

Jeong Han-wool (EAI Center for Public Opinion Analysis, Deputy Director)

□ Depoliticization of Religion

- Korea ranks 24th out of 27 countries surveyed, and 11th out of 14 OECD countries. Clear distinction between religion and politics

- The United States ranks 1st among OECD countries in the politicization of religion

□ Influence of Religion on Individual Political Attitudes in Korea

- Christianity (47%) > Catholicism (23%) > Buddhism (16%), compared to the national average of 24%

□ Clear Differences in Ideological Attitudes Among Religious Adherents

- Decline in progressives among Christians, significant increase in moderates and conservatives: Shift from pro-government to pro-opposition tendencies

․ A significant increase in moderate-conservative tendencies among Christians compared to two years ago

․ Buddhists are ideologically conservative but exhibit a pronounced depoliticized attitude

․ Catholics are closer to the general public's sentiment

□ Presidential Election Support by Religion

- In the 16th presidential election, Buddhists showed higher support for Lee Hoi-chang, while Christians supported Roh Moo-hyun; Catholics were divided

- Preference for the next presidential candidate: Buddhists prefer Park Geun-hye, while Christians and Catholics prefer Lee Myung-bak

Viewed internationally, South Korea can be classified as a country with a clear separation between politics and religion. This finding is based on an analysis of the results of an international public opinion survey planned by BBC World Service, the East Asia Institute (EAI), and Maeil Business Newspaper. To the question, “How much do religious beliefs influence your judgment on socio-political issues?” only 25% of South Koreans responded affirmatively, ranking 24th out of 27 surveyed countries and 10th out of 14 OECD countries. The average affirmative response rate among citizens of the 14 OECD countries was 40%, and the average among all 27 surveyed countries was 48%.

In the United States, 63% of respondents indicated that religion influences their political judgment, the highest rate among OECD countries. This appears to be a result of the growing influence and membership of Evangelical churches in the United States. On an individual level, respondents across the 27 countries showed that those with lower incomes and lower educational attainment were more likely to be influenced by religion.

In Korea, the socio-political influence of religion on individuals varies by religious affiliation. First, a clear trend of politicization is evident among Christians. The percentage of Buddhist adherents who responded that religion influences their political judgment was the lowest at 16%, while Catholic adherents' response rate was 23%, closest to the overall distribution. However, a significant 48% of Christians indicated that their political attitudes are linked to religious logic.

A notable characteristic is the rapid shift of Christians towards a moderate-conservative ideological orientation. Comparing the average self-rated ideological scores from the 2004 survey and the current survey, Christian adherents show a rapid shift from progressive to conservative over the two-year period compared to Buddhists and Catholics (4.8 points → 5.4 points). Considering that 33% of Christians supported Lee Hoi-chang and 46% supported Roh Moo-hyun in the 16th presidential election, indicating a generally pro-government tendency, the conservative shift among Christians appears even more pronounced. At the time, 44% of Buddhists chose Lee Hoi-chang, and 34% chose Roh Moo-hyun, showing a different voting pattern than Christians. Catholic adherents showed a nearly equal distribution, with 42% supporting candidate Lee and 40% supporting candidate Roh. The ideological conservatism among Christians can be interpreted as a result of various Christian denominations increasing their political discourse on issues such as national security, the North Korean nuclear issue, and the revision of the private school law.

What influence will religion have on the upcoming presidential election? Although this survey was conducted before candidate Goh Kun's withdrawal, it clearly shows diverging patterns of presidential election support by religion. Candidate Park Geun-hye's strength lies in her high support among Buddhists, who boast the largest number of adherents. In contrast, candidate Lee Myung-bak's strength lies in his broad support from Christians (Protestants and Catholics) and non-religious individuals. The withdrawn former Prime Minister Goh Kun received consistent support, mostly in the 10% range. Due to the distinct differences in voting tendencies by religion, each presidential candidate is inevitably busy trying to win over voters through various religious events.

Even in Korea, where separation of church and state is relatively distinct, religion is a significant variable in Korean politics. This year is an election year marked by social division and polarization. The socio-political role and responsibility of religion are expected to become even more important.

However, the responsibility of politicians toward religion should not be overlooked. First, candidates need to be particularly mindful to avoid confusion between their personal identity as adherents of a specific religion and their role as leaders representing the nation and its people. Furthermore, religion, a symbol of reconciliation and coexistence, should not be exploited as a political fault line to divide supporters and opponents, nor should it be reduced to a tool for attacking rivals.

[Figure 1] Percentage of respondents who answered, "Religion influences my socio-political judgment"

Note: OECD countries surveyed include: Mexico, Hungary, France, Korea, Portugal, Australia, Poland, Germany, United Kingdom, Canada, Turkey, Italy, Greece, United States (Source: BBC, EAI, Maeil Business Newspaper International Public Opinion Survey 2007)

[Figure 2] Percentage of Korean religious adherents who responded, "Religion influences my socio-political judgment"

Note: This figure combines responses of "Strongly agree" + "Somewhat agree" to the statement that religion significantly influences political judgment (Source: BBC, EAI, Maeil Business Newspaper International Public Opinion Survey 2007). Responses from adherents of other religions are omitted.

[Figure 3] Change in average subjective self-ideology score by religious group over two years (2004-2006)

Note 1: The figures represent the average of individual adherents' self-rated ideology scores. Scores from 0 to 4 are classified as progressive, 5 as moderate, and 6 to 10 as conservative. Scores closer to the extremes (0 or 10) indicate a stronger ideological tendency.

Note 2: Data from BBC, EAI, Maeil Business Newspaper (2005; 2007). The years in the figure titles and legends are based on the survey period, while the years in the data names are based on the publication period, creating a discrepancy. Responses from adherents of other religions are omitted.

[Figure 4] Differences in support for candidates in the 16th presidential election by religion (%)

Note: Results from the 16th presidential election candidate support question (BBC, EAI, Maeil Business Newspaper 2005; 2007). Responses from adherents of other religions are omitted.

[Table 1] Support Rate for the Top 3 Presidential Candidates by Religious Adherence (%)

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Note: Results from the 16th presidential election candidate support question (BBC, EAI, Maeil Business Newspaper 2005; 2007). Survey period: November 20 - December 4, 2006. Responses from adherents of other religions are omitted, and support rates for other candidates are also omitted for brevity.

Topic 2: Clash of Civilizations Theory and International Politics

Is Conflict Between the West and Islam Inevitable? Is an Endless War Unavoidable?

Lee Sang-hyup (Deputy Director, EAI Center for Public Opinion Analysis)

□ Causes of Conflict between the West and Islam: Clash of Civilizations 29% vs. Political Power Struggle 52%

□ Responsibility for Conflict: Mutual Blame Dominant, Fundamental Cultural Differences 26%

□ Global Opinion: Optimism Prevails that Consensus for Compromise is Possible Instead of Clash of Civilizations

U.S. Opinion: Shift to Realist Stance After the Shock of 9/11

The results of a public opinion poll in 27 countries, jointly planned by Maeil Business Newspaper, BBC World Service, and the East Asia Institute (Director: Professor Kim Byong-kook, Korea University), indicate that the world does not view a clash of civilizations between Islam and the West as an inevitable choice. Judging the other side through a dichotomy of religious good versus evil or civilization versus barbarism leaves little room for compromise. Instead, it is viewed from the perspective of power struggles and conflicts of interest where realistic calculations and choices are possible. Only 29% of the 28,389 respondents across 27 countries believed that the conflict between Islam and the West stems from fundamental differences in religious or civilizational dimensions. A majority (52%) understood it as a struggle for political gain.

Regarding the question of who is responsible for the tension forming between Islam and the West, global public opinion is divided. Among the responses, mutual blame was the most prevalent. Thirty-nine percent of all respondents diagnosed the cause of the problem as the extremist elements on both sides. Only 12% pointed to Islamic extremists, and a mere 7% blamed Western extremists. However, 26% of respondents attributed the conflict to fundamental differences in the cultures of both sides.

Only 28% of global respondents predicted that an armed conflict between Islamic and Western civilizations is inevitable. In contrast, nearly double that amount, 56%, believed that compromise is possible between the two sides. Examining the predictions of armed conflict among the citizens of the involved nations, countries that sent troops to Iraq, such as Italy (78%), the United Kingdom (77%), Portugal (66%), and South Korea (57%), placed more weight on the possibility of compromise rather than armed conflict. Even in the United States, a superpower that has engaged in wars with Islamic countries twice in the 21st century, a significant 64% of respondents believed that a consensus for compromise is possible. Conversely, in countries heavily influenced by Islam, such as Turkey (49%), the United Arab Emirates (47%), the Philippines (42%), and Indonesia (40%), the perception that compromise is possible between the two civilizations fell short of a majority.

However, it is not appropriate to evaluate Islam as a more extremist religion or less inclined towards compromise compared to Christianity or Western religions. When viewed from an individual level rather than a national one, only 35% of Muslims and 27% of Christians believed that a clash of civilizations between Islam and the West is inevitable. Conversely, 52% of Muslims and 56% of Christians predicted that common ground for compromise can be found between the two sides. While it is true that the pessimism among Muslims is slightly higher, considering the margin of error, it is difficult to consider it a significant difference.

Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, bloody conflicts have continued between Islam and the Western powers represented by Christianity. Extreme situations of bloodshed severely limit the influence of moderates or pragmatists who calculate the balance of power and explore the possibility of compromise in conflicts of interest. They amplify the extreme voices of hardliners who call for an endless war. Current global public opinion demonstrates a shift from the anti-terrorism and anti-Islam sentiment that rapidly swayed American and global opinion immediately after the 9/11 attacks, towards a more realistic perspective.

[Figure 5] Causes of Conflict between Islam and the West (%)

Note) Source: (BBC, EAI, Maeil Business Newspaper, 2007) Total responses from 28,389 respondents in 27 countries.

[Figure 6] Responsibility for Conflict between Islam and the West (%)

Note) Source: (BBC, EAI, Maeil Business Newspaper, 2007) Total responses from 28,389 respondents in 27 countries.

[Figure 7] Differences by Religion Regarding Prospects for Conflict between Islam and the West (%)

Note) Source: (BBC, EAI, Maeil Business Newspaper, 2007) Total responses from 28,389 respondents in 27 countries.