[Public Opinion Briefing 2-1] The World as Seen by Korea ①

[Public Opinion Briefing 2] The World as Seen by Koreans

[1] How the Survey Was Conducted - EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center

[2] Koreans' View of the International Order - Sook-Jong Lee

[3] International Threats Perceived by Koreans - Byung-Wook Min

[4] Koreans' Perceptions of Foreign Affairs in the Era of Globalization - Nae-Young Lee

[5] Nuclear Fatigue Evident, Public Opinion for Physical Preparedness Strengthens - Tae-Hyun Kim

[6] The ROK-US Alliance and US Forces Korea - Namkoong Gon

[7] China's Rise as Seen by Koreans - Jeong Han-wool & Jeong Won-chil

1. How the Survey Was Conducted.

EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center

?xml:namespace prefix = o /

The East Asia Institute (EAI), in conjunction with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (formerly the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, CCFR), conducted an international public opinion survey in seven countries regarding foreign perceptions, following a similar survey in 2004. JoongAng Ilbo provided sponsorship again this year.

The survey was conducted among citizens of seven countries: Korea, the United States, China, Japan, India, Indonesia, and Australia. (1) This survey is significant in that it allows for an examination of the reactions of Korea and major Asian countries to Korean Peninsula issues, such as the North Korean nuclear issue, the transfer of wartime operational control, and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) issues, which are causing tensions not only on the Korean Peninsula but also on a global scale. It will provide crucial data for predicting the reactions of the international community, which is actively seeking a resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue, as well as the United States, the world's superpower. (2) It also holds particular significance in that it allows for an in-depth analysis of Asian perceptions of the rise of "Chindia," a matter of global concern, while also analyzing the worldviews and foreign policy preferences of China and India, for which access to data is difficult.

For Korea to emerge as a key player on the international stage, it is essential to prepare not only for visible crises but also for invisible long-term challenges. While the North Korean nuclear issue is undeniably a matter of survival for us and a subject of international concern, we must also realistically acknowledge that, from a global perspective, it is merely one among many international issues. The rise of Chindia, a matter of global interest, is the greatest variable that will shape the economic order of the 21st century. The emerging energy and environmental issues are also international matters that the world is closely watching and preparing for. To avoid falling behind in international competition, we must emphasize that we cannot afford to lag behind in addressing global issues, not just our own.

In March, the East Asia Institute formed an International Public Opinion Research Team (Chair: Professor Sook-Jong Lee, Sungkyunkwan University) and finalized the research and survey plan in close consultation with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Surveys were conducted in seven countries from June to July, after which opinions on the survey results were exchanged. Some manuscripts were to be directly written and published by the US side. The survey results were to be introduced in the JoongAng Ilbo on December 13.

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

2. Koreans' View of the International Order:

Korea should participate in the international community, but national interests and power development should take precedence.

Sook-Jong Lee (EAI International Public Opinion Research Team Leader, Department of Public Administration, Sungkyunkwan University)

ㆍPerception of being mistreated by the international community; increasing demand for physical hard power

ㆍ81% believe military strength is necessary to survive in the international community.

ㆍ69% believe Korea is not being treated properly in the international community.

ㆍForeign policy priorities: Economic priorities are prominent; fatigue evident regarding security issues.

ㆍ48% for deterring North Korea's nuclear development; 45% for Korean unification.

ㆍ48% agree that Korea should comply with unfavorable decisions made by international organizations; 51% disagree.

How do Koreans perceive Korea's status and responsibilities in the international community? Koreans believe that while Korea should actively participate in the international community, national interests should take precedence over international demands when they conflict, and that Korea should enhance its hard power to achieve this.

[Figure 1] Koreans' Perceptions of Foreign Affairs: "Agree" Percentage

Underlying this is a sense of victimhood, with the perception that Korea is being mistreated in the international community. Nearly 70% of Koreans agree with the statement, 'Korea is not being treated properly on the international stage.' An overwhelming majority of Koreans recognize the need for hard power for national survival. 81% responded positively to the idea that 'military strength is necessary to survive in the international community,' and 64% agreed with the statement 'Our country should possess nuclear weapons,' significantly higher than the 36% who disagreed. This represents a substantial shift from the 2004 survey, where support for possessing nuclear weapons (51%) slightly outweighed opposition (49%), to this survey two years later, where support outpaced opposition by 28%.

[Figure 2] Foreign Policy Goals the Korean Government Should Pursue: "Agree" Percentage

Specifically, the perception of not being treated properly in the international community leads to a defensive stance on economic issues. 63% support the argument, 'We must block the opening of the rice market at all costs,' and 62% believe that 'Large foreign companies are increasingly harming the Korean economy.' Regarding the statement 'Buying domestic products is anachronistic in the era of globalization,' 54% agreed, indicating a preference for protecting domestic products, compared to 45% who disagreed.

Economic growth (79%), protecting jobs for Korean workers (68%), protecting the interests of Korean companies abroad (65%), and ensuring stable energy supply (63%) are prioritized as crucial foreign policy objectives for the Korean government. Improving global environmental issues was also ranked highly, with 60% considering it a very important objective. Preventing nuclear proliferation (56%), deterring North Korea's nuclear development (48%), and unification of the Korean Peninsula (43%) followed, along with strengthening the UN (32%), the war on international terrorism (34%), solving global hunger (30%), and strengthening the ROK-US alliance (29%). Support for democratization in non-democratic countries (21%) ranked lower. This indicates public fatigue with security issues. countries and support for democratization in non-democratic countries (21%) ranked lower. This indicates public fatigue with security issues.

However, approximately 60% of respondents support the ideas that 'Our country should increase aid to poor countries' and 'Korea should be proactive in accepting foreign cultures in the era of globalization,' suggesting a relatively open attitude towards foreign aid and cultural exchange. Conversely, 52% hold a negative view on the idea that 'Foreigners should be able to obtain Korean nationality more easily,' compared to 48% who hold a positive view. The idea of actively intervening in the international community translates into a willingness to participate in various international agreements. When asked about participation in agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol, conventions enabling the International Criminal Court to bring perpetrators to justice, new conventions under the Biological Weapons Convention, and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, high percentages ranging from 85% to 88% responded affirmatively.

3. International Threats Perceived by Koreans:

Insensitive to recurring security crises, sensitive to new threats such as energy and environment.

Byung-Wook Min (Professor, Graduate School of IT Policy, University of Seoul)

ㆍTop 5 security threat factors perceived by Koreans in 2004:

(1) International terrorism (2) North Korea's nuclear development (3) US unilateralism (4) Japan's militarization (5) China's rise

ㆍLess sensitive to recurring security threats compared to two years ago.

ㆍSensitive to new 21st-century security threats such as energy and environment.

How do international affairs pose threats to Koreans? Each time North Korea presents a nuclear threat, debates between pessimism and optimism flare up in Korea, accompanied by concerns about public complacency regarding security. However, systematic discussions on Koreans' threat perceptions have been scarce. The results of this survey provide data that allows for a comprehensive examination of Koreans' perceptions of external threats.

The most prominent feature of this survey is that security issues that have persistently emerged in the East Asian region over the past few years are the primary sources of threat. Threats are perceived from international terrorism, North Korea's nuclear development, China's rise, US unilateralism, and Japan's militarization – issues that have become all too familiar. When combining responses for 'very threatening' and 'somewhat threatening' for these five issues, over 90% of respondents perceived them as threats. This indicates that the very existence of surrounding countries, including North Korea, is considered a source of threat.

Considering the severity of threats expected within the next 10 years, there have been significant changes compared to two years ago. The perception of threat from international terrorism has also decreased significantly, from 61% to 49%. Despite North Korea's continuous escalation of military threats, the proportion of respondents who consider North Korea's nuclear issue 'very threatening' has decreased from 59% to 50%, and US unilateralism from 50% to 32%. Meanwhile, concerns about Japan's militarization remain similar, decreasing from 47% to 45%. These are indicators that people's sense of crisis regarding issues that have repeatedly occurred over several years is gradually becoming blunted. However, the proportion of respondents who perceive China's rise as a threat has slightly increased from 46% to 49%, indicating a threat level close to that of North Korea's nuclear issue.

However, the proportion of respondents who perceive direct military or economic conflicts between East Asian countries as a threat to the Korean Peninsula was relatively low. The percentage of 'very threatening' responses for conflicts between China and Taiwan (8%), economic competition among Asian countries (24%), US forces in Asia (12%), and competition between China and Japan (15%) was significantly lower compared to the core issues mentioned above.

Conversely, in addition to traditional security factors, Koreans' sense of crisis regarding new security threats such as energy, environment, and diseases like AIDS and avian flu is on the rise. These threat factors are characterized as international collective problems that cannot be resolved by the efforts of any single country alone. The perception that issues that humanity must resolve collaboratively, such as global warming (67%), disruptions in energy supply (64%), and infectious diseases (59%), can pose serious threats is spreading.

This survey indicates that as Koreans' interest in international affairs gradually increases, their realistic perception of external threats is also growing. The problem is that Koreans are becoming desensitized to long-term or recurring issues. This is a cause for concern regarding public complacency about security. However, the fact that awareness of global threats is spreading compared to the past is noteworthy, as it signifies adequate preparation for global crises.

[Figure 3] Factors Posing a Serious Threat to Korea's National Interests within the Next 10 Years