[Public Opinion Briefing 7-1] India-Friendly World, Korea ①

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 7] The World's View of India-Friendly Nations and Korea

[1] How This Survey Was Conducted - EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center

[2] Americans' Views on Terrorism, the Iraq War, and Bush's Foreign Policy - Namgung Gon

[3] The World's Perspective on the United States - Min Byung-won

[4] Americans' Views on China - Christopher Whitney and Jeong Han-ul

[5] The World's View of India-Friendly Nations: How China and India View Themselves and the World? - Lee Tae-hwan

[6] Perceptions of an East Asian Community Among the Peoples of Korea, China, and Japan - Lee Nae-young

[7] The World's View of Korea - Lee Sook-jong

[8] North Korea as a 'Problem Child' of the World and Korea's Collateral Damage - Kim Tae-hyun

[9] The Perspectives of Korea and the International Community on the UN - Lee Nae-young

1. How This Survey Was Conducted.

EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center

Following the survey conducted in 2004, the East Asia Institute (EAI) once again collaborated with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (formerly the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations) to conduct an international public opinion survey on foreign perceptions across seven countries. JoongAng Ilbo provided sponsorship for this year's survey, as it did in 2004.

The survey targeted citizens in seven countries: Korea, the United States, China, Japan, India, Indonesia, and Australia. (1) This survey is significant as it allows for an assessment of the reactions of Korea and key Asian nations to Korean Peninsula issues, such as the North Korean nuclear issue, the transfer of wartime operational control, and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) matters, which are causing tensions not only on the peninsula but also on a global scale. It will provide crucial data for predicting the reactions of the international community actively engaged in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, as well as those of the United States, the world's superpower. (2) The survey holds particular significance in its in-depth analysis of Asian perceptions of the rise of India-friendly nations, a matter of global concern, while also analyzing the worldviews and foreign policy preferences of China and India, countries for which access to data is often difficult.

For Korea to emerge as a major player on the international stage, it is essential to prepare not only for visible crises but also for invisible long-term challenges. While the North Korean nuclear issue is undeniably a matter of survival for us and a subject of international concern, we must also soberly acknowledge that from a global perspective, it is merely one among many international issues. The rise of India-friendly nations, a global concern, is the most significant variable shaping the economic order of the 21st century. Emerging energy and environmental issues are also international matters that the world is closely watching and preparing for. To avoid falling behind in international competition, we must emphasize that we cannot afford to lag behind in addressing global issues, not just our own.

In March, the East Asia Institute established an International Public Opinion Research Team (chaired by Professor Lee Sook-jong of Sungkyunkwan University). In close consultation with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the team finalized the research and survey plans. The surveys in the seven countries were conducted from June to July. Subsequently, opinions on the survey results were exchanged, and some manuscripts were to be directly written and published by the U.S. side. The survey results were to be introduced in the JoongAng Ilbo on December 13.

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2. Americans' Views on Terrorism, the Iraq War, and Bush's Foreign Policy

Namgung Gon (Department of Political Science and International Relations, Ewha Womans University)

□ Among the surveyed countries, South Korea ranks first for the third consecutive year as the country where the U.S. military should be stationed long-term, with 62%

□ Americans believe the U.S. is not qualified to be the world's police, with 65% holding this view

□ Americans prioritize cooperation with other countries (75%) over maintaining U.S. hegemony (10%)

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, which managed the U.S. portion of this comparative international survey, has been periodically conducting surveys on foreign perceptions among Americans every four years since 1974, using the same survey items.

Looking solely at the results of the 2006 survey, it appears clear that Americans strongly support firm responses to terrorism following 9/11. However, even before the 9/11 attacks, Americans recognized terrorism as a significant foreign policy issue related to U.S. national interests. It seems more accurate to interpret that the 9/11 attacks heightened their awareness of the seriousness and reality of the terrorism issue.

In this survey, nearly 90% of Americans identified terrorism as a critical foreign policy issue facing the U.S., alongside the rise of China, Islamic fundamentalism, nuclear proliferation, mass immigration, global warming, AIDS, and energy supply issues. These issues have been consistently identified as important foreign policy concerns for the U.S. in all surveys conducted since the 1990s.

Americans also consistently support the legitimacy of the U.S. role in international affairs. The proportion of Americans who believe the U.S. should play an active role in international events has remained around 70% since 1974. This survey also found that 69% of Americans support the U.S. international role, a figure nearly identical to the average from surveys conducted before 9/11. The 9/11 attacks or the War on Terror did not cause a sudden surge in Americans' assessment of the legitimacy of the U.S. international role.

However, it is important to note that while Americans support the U.S. international role, they do not unconditionally accept its scope. In this survey, when asked whether the U.S. has a responsibility to act as the world's police, 75% of Americans responded 'no.' Only 22% of Americans believed the U.S. has such a responsibility.

Americans expect the U.S. to play an international role, but they also call for cooperation with other countries. Only 10% of Americans supported the U.S. acting alone to resolve international issues. In contrast, 75% of Americans desired a division of roles and responsibilities with other nations. The majority of Americans, therefore, support international cooperation with allies rather than unilateral approaches in handling international affairs.

An interesting finding in the 2006 survey is that Americans themselves are critical of the justification for the Iraq War. Only 35% of Americans agreed that the Iraq War helped to eliminate the threat of terrorism, while 61% believed it was not very helpful. Similarly, only 32% of Americans agreed that the victory in the Iraq War would lead to the spread of democracy in the Middle East, with 64% disagreeing.

American public opinion is negative towards foreign policies that seek to maintain U.S. hegemony unilaterally under the pretext of retaliation and prevention of terrorism. Therefore, the Bush administration's intervention in foreign countries to unilaterally implant democratic values and establish democratic regimes does not align with the direction of American public opinion. There is a clear gap and dissonance between the scope of the international role recognized by Americans and the foreign policy pursued by the Bush administration. The American criticism of the Bush administration's Iraq policy, revealed in this survey, can be seen as stemming from this gap and dissonance.

In this survey, Americans are demanding, first, that U.S. foreign policy goals should not be confined to U.S. national interests but should aim for universal international interests; second, that the U.S. should not ignore international events and should play a certain role; third, that the U.S. should resolve international issues through international cooperation rather than unilateral means and provide international assistance to countries in need; and fourth, that the U.S. should implement trade policies with other countries in a mutually beneficial manner. How much the Bush administration reflects these demands in its actual policies will likely serve as a litmus test for the American public's evaluation of the Bush administration.

[Figure 1] American Public Perception of U.S. Foreign Policy Goals

[Figure 2] National Attitudes Towards the Direction of Foreign Policy the U.S. Should Pursue

[Figure 3] Preference for Countries with Long-Term U.S. Military Presence

3. Domestic and International Criticism of U.S. Hegemony:

Demands for a reduced U.S. military role in Asia, constraints on hardline policy toward North Korea

Min Byung-won (Graduate School of IT Policy, Seoul National University of Science and Technology)

□ Acknowledgment of U.S. influence in the world and Asia

□ Extreme negativity regarding the qualifications and role of the U.S. as the world's police; even Americans do not acknowledge it

□ A majority opinion predicts a weakening of U.S. hegemony in the long term

□ Americans support U.S. military intervention if North Korea attacks South Korea, with 45% approval

The image of U.S. hegemony as perceived by the world is diminishing over time. While strong voices are rising within the U.S. regarding North Korea's nuclear test declaration, international criticism of American unilateralism is expected to act as a constraining factor. Since the post-Cold War era, and particularly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the negative perception of American unilateralism and its role as the world's police among global citizens has become prominent.

All surveyed countries acknowledge the U.S.'s influence in global politics. When asked to rate the U.S.'s influence on the world on a scale of 0 to 10, most countries showed an average score around 8. Although slightly lower, the average score for U.S. influence in Asia also ranged from 7 to 8. Notably, the prevailing view is that U.S. influence in Asia has increased over the past decade, indicating that American unilateralism has steadily expanded in Asia during the post-Cold War era.

Regarding the question of whether the U.S. is a responsible nation, the proportion of respondents who answered affirmatively varied significantly by country, ranging from 30% to 60%. However, with the exception of Australian citizens, a majority in most countries criticized the U.S.'s lack of responsibility. This critical perception of the U.S. is also confirmed by the high rate of negative responses to the question of whether the U.S. is qualified to be the world's police. Interestingly, this negative sentiment is even higher among Americans themselves (75%). The assessment of the U.S.'s actual role as the world's police is even harsher. More than 70% in the U.S. domestic population and major allied countries expressed a critical stance towards the U.S.'s international role.

The world is increasingly cynical about the justification for the Iraq War as claimed by the Bush administration. The proportion of respondents who agreed with the statement 'The Iraq War has reduced the threat of terrorism' was very low, even in troop-contributing countries like South Korea (17%) and Australia (14%), and was only 35% even among Americans. Furthermore, there was an overwhelmingly skeptical public opinion regarding the policy of promoting democracy in the Middle East, which was presented as another justification for the war.

This critical perception leads respondents to doubt the sustainability of U.S. hegemony in the long term. Less than 40% of respondents answered affirmatively when asked if the U.S. would remain the world's leading power 50 years from now. Notably, only 23% of Chinese citizens, who are perceived as potential challengers to the U.S., believe U.S. hegemony will be maintained. Views that a country comparable to the U.S. will emerge (30-50%) and opinions predicting the decline of the U.S. (20-30%) are also on the rise.

The increasing negative perception of U.S. military presence in East Asia, a region fraught with potential conflict factors such as the North Korean nuclear issue and U.S.-China/U.S.-Korea tensions, also captures our attention. In the seven surveyed countries, the response advocating for an increase in U.S. military presence in East Asia was less than 10%, including within the U.S. domestic population. Even in South Korea, which shows strong support for the ROK-U.S. alliance and the presence of U.S. Forces Korea, the opinion to increase U.S. forces stationed in East Asia was only 8%. Chinese citizens also showed only 9% support for an increase, with the rest demanding a reduction or maintenance of the current level.

The global view on U.S. hegemony remains unfavorable and shows signs of worsening over time. Despite some positive assessments of the U.S. role as the world's police, many people believe that U.S. influence is excessive and that the U.S. should reduce its overseas presence and intervention in East Asia, which has expanded unilaterally. This global public opinion is expected to weaken the position of conservatives within the U.S. who advocate for a hardline response to North Korea and Iran's nuclear issues, thereby constraining a unilateral U.S. response to the North Korean nuclear issue. It remains to be seen how the gradually declining U.S. hegemony will respond to these perspectives.

[Figure 1] Assessment of the U.S. Qualification and Role as World Police

[Figure 2] Assessment of U.S. Global Influence

(Closer to 10 indicates greater influence, 5 indicates average, 0 indicates no influence)

[Figure 3] Assessment of the Iraq War

[Figure 4] Outlook for U.S. Hegemony in the Next 50 Years

[Figure 5] Legitimacy of U.S. Military Intervention on Specific Issues

4. Americans' Views on China: Expectations and Concerns (Excerpt from an article published in Monthly NEXT, November issue)

Christopher Whitney (Research Director, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs)

Jeong Han-wool (Vice President, EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center)

□ "The U.S. and China are in a competitive relationship" 52%

□ Countries vital to U.S. national interest according to Americans: China 49% > Japan 44%

□ 58% of Americans: China is an unfair trading partner; acknowledges economic growth but not a good trade partner

□ Cooperation and engagement should be prioritized over hindering China's growth

One of the long-term challenges facing the United States is the rise of China as a great power. China has grown into a global manufacturing powerhouse and has surpassed the United States as a major trading partner for many countries around the world. China's rapid military expansion is also a cause for concern in the United States. Public opinion polls conducted in the United States aim to gauge American perceptions of whether China poses a strategic threat and whether relations with China should be managed through long-term cooperation or containment. The survey results indicate that the American public holds complex views on China.

The American public believes that China's rise will weaken the U.S. hegemonic system in the long run. Americans predict that U.S. influence will decline while China's influence will grow within the next decade. Notably, a majority of Americans believe that China's economy will catch up to the United States in about 20 years. The fact that only 40% of respondents believe the United States will maintain its superpower status 50 years from now is likely due to considerations of China. Consequently, 52% of the American public believes that the U.S. and China are more likely to be in a competitive rather than cooperative relationship.

However, American perceptions of China's rise vary significantly across different domains. While the American public has a strongly negative view (75%) of China's rise as a military and geopolitical power, there is relatively more positive sentiment regarding its expanding economic influence. Nevertheless, a perception of China as an economically favorable trading partner is not dominant. Fifty-eight percent of respondents (61% of Republicans, 59% of Democrats) indicated that China engages in unfair trade practices, and 56% of respondents (60% of Republicans, 56% of Democrats) opposed free trade agreements with China.

The negative perception of China's rise does not necessarily translate into a perception of serious threat. Only 36% of the American public views China's rise as a serious threat. This figure is slightly lower than the perceived threats to the Korean Peninsula and somewhat higher than the threat posed by economic competition with "low-wage" countries (32%, serious threat). It is considerably lower than the levels of perceived threat from international terrorism (74%, serious threat) or the nuclear armament of hostile states (69%, serious threat), which Americans consider more serious threats.

The reasons why the American public does not consider China a serious threat appear to be twofold. First, it is likely due to the importance of China to the realization of U.S. national interests. When asked whether China or Japan is more critical to U.S. national interests, 49% of respondents chose China, while 44% chose Japan. The fact that China's strategic importance is perceived as being on par with Japan, a long-standing ally, is noteworthy. Second, the recognition that cooperation with China is necessary to resolve major global issues appears to mitigate the perception of threat from China. Americans believe that cooperation with emerging Asian powers, including China, is important for alleviating competition over energy resources and preventing nuclear proliferation in Asia.

Consequently, a majority of the American public (65%) believes that the U.S. government should prioritize a policy of friendly cooperation and engagement rather than actively deterring China's rise. This will serve as a factor in sustaining economic cooperation between the United States and China. The American public recognizes that China, as a rising great power, must be a stakeholder in addressing the challenges facing the world and Asia.

[Figure 1] Comparison of U.S. and Chinese Influence as Seen by Americans

[Figure 2] American Attitudes Toward China's Rise

[Figure 3] American Assessment of China's Role

[Figure 4] American Assessment of China's Economic and Military Growth

[Figure 5] Which Country, China or Japan, is More Important to U.S. National Interests?