Crisis of American Soft Power

Crisis of American Soft Power

1. Crisis of American Soft Power: Global Opinion Does Not Respect American Leadership

2. Worsening Anti-American Sentiment in Korea: Ideological Anti-Americanism Fades Among the 2030 Generation

Crisis of American Soft Power: Global Opinion Does Not Recognize American Leadership

-Anti-American sentiment significantly increased in 18 countries surveyed for three consecutive years; 52% view American international leadership negatively.

-Korea's anti-American tendency ranks 14th out of 25 countries, which is not high.

-American citizens' recognition of US leadership is 57%, but they are negative about specific policies.

-President Bush's new policy for stabilizing Iraq is unlikely to gain the consent of the international community.

American leadership is in crisis. This is the result of an analysis of the findings from surveys conducted since 2005 by BBC, GlobeScan, Maeil Business Newspaper, and the East Asia Institute, asking citizens of about 20 countries worldwide about "the impact of the United States on the international community." In the 18 countries that have consistently responded to the survey for the past three years, positive responses were balanced with negative responses (40% vs. 46%) in 2005. In the 2007 survey, positive responses plummeted to 29%, while negative responses increased to 52%.

Looking at the opinions of the 25 countries participating in the 2007 survey, positive responses were 32% and negative opinions reached 49%. Chinese citizens, emerging as America's greatest competitor, were negative about America's role by 52%. Even among traditional allies, American leadership is being questioned. In Germany, 74% of respondents evaluated American leadership negatively; in France, 69%; in Australia, 60%; and in Korea, 54%. Notably, even in the UK, which led the Iraq War alongside the US, 57% believed that the United States was having a negative impact on the international community. Among American citizens themselves, 57% still positively assessed America's international influence, with negative assessments at 28%. However, excluding some African countries and Eastern European countries like Hungary and Poland among the 25 countries, negative evaluations significantly outweighed positive ones. Korea also has a significant amount of critical public opinion regarding America's international role, but it is relatively difficult to assess it as having strong anti-American sentiment. [Figure 1-3], [Table 1]

The evaluation of America's response to major international issues is even more severe. [Figure 4] In the 2007 survey, only 20% expressed support for America's handling of the Iraq War, while opposition reached 73%. Notably, 68% of all respondents believed that US troops stationed in the Middle East were causing conflict. Only 28% and 21% supported America's approach to the Iranian nuclear issue and the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, respectively, in its Middle East diplomacy, which the US is heavily invested in. This appears to reflect a critical perception of the unilateral pro-Israel policy. Additionally, only 27% supported America's approach to the issue of global warming, as the US delays its accession to the Kyoto Protocol aimed at regulating carbon dioxide emissions.

Regarding specific policy matters, even American citizens are critical. 57% of Americans responded that they do not agree with America's handling of the Iraq War. 53% of Americans agree with the assertion that US troops in Iraq are a source of conflict rather than contributing to regional stability. Regarding Iran policy, 41% were in favor and 50% were opposed; regarding the Israel-Hezbollah conflict policy, 46% were in favor and 47% were opposed.

The policy on North Korea's nuclear issue received a relatively positive evaluation. Although 54% of all respondents were critical of America's North Korea policy, it was the most favorable evaluation compared to other policies. This is interpreted as the US government's use of diplomatic means, such as the Six-Party Talks, for the North Korean nuclear issue, which has mitigated criticism of unilateral American diplomacy.

As Joseph Nye pointed out, in the age of information and globalization, power does not solely mean military or economic strength. Since the 21st century, the ability to elicit voluntary assimilation and cooperation based on cultural, value, and moral superiority, along with traditional physical power, has been gaining attention as a source of leadership. So-called 'soft power' becomes an issue. While the United States continues to exert influence as the world's strongest nation by leveraging its traditional power advantages in military and economy, domestic and international views on this are cold. The new policy for stabilizing Iraq, announced by the Bush administration in early January, is based on the idea of quickly eliminating armed forces through additional troop deployment to Iraq. This again seems to lean towards strengthening physical power through military expansion. The problem lies in soft power, which captures public sentiment.

[Figure 1] Evaluation of American Leadership in 18 Countries Surveyed for Three Consecutive Years (2005-2007)

Germany Russia Mexico USA Brazil UK Argentina Egypt India Indonesia China Chile Turkey Portugal Poland France Korea Australia

[Figure 2] Comparison of Opinions in 18 Countries and American Citizens' Evaluation of US Leadership: Percentage Responding "Positive"

[Figure 3] Evaluation of US Leadership by Citizens of Major Powers: Percentage Responding "Negative"

[Table 1] Classification of US Leadership Evaluation in 25 Countries: Percentage Responding "Negative"

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[Figure 4] Evaluation of America's Response to Individual Foreign Policies by Citizens of 25 Countries

Korean Perception of the US: A Deteriorating Perception

Strengthening Anti-American Sentiment Despite North Korean Nuclear Threat and Rise of Moderates

-Positive evaluation of US international role: 2005 52% → 2006 44% → 2007 35%

-Ideologically, even among the younger generation, conservatives now outnumber progressives, yet anti-American sentiment persists.

-Ideological anti-Americanism is fading among the younger demographic.

-Conservatives in their 20s and 30s exhibit a coexistence of conservatism and anti-American sentiment.

Anti-American sentiment, which had been decreasing since North Korea publicly disclosed its nuclear development program in 2004, is showing signs of increasing again. 55% of Korean citizens responded that they do not agree with America's approach to North Korea's nuclear development, with only 43% in favor.

In the 2005 survey asking about the impact of the United States on the international order, a majority (52%) responded that the US has a positive international impact. This figure decreased to 44% in the 2006 survey and was only 35% in the 2007 survey. Until the early 2000s, the threat from North Korea and a positive perception of the ROK-US alliance tended to operate in opposite directions. That is, as the North Korean threat increased, pro-American public opinion strengthened, and conversely, as inter-Korean relations improved, critical public opinion towards the US intensified.

However, recently, there has been a tendency for anti-American sentiment to grow alongside increasing concerns about the North Korean nuclear threat and the advancement of societal conservatism. The survey was conducted in late November to early December, a period still within the aftereffects of North Korea's nuclear test. Furthermore, among those in their 20s, progressives accounted for 25%, moderates 46%, and conservatives 29%; among those in their 30s, progressives were 22%, moderates 50%, and conservatives 27%, indicating a considerable increase in the moderate and conservative segments among the younger generation. In the 2005 survey, progressives in their 20s were 44%, and progressives in their 30s were 34%. In the past, critical public opinion towards the US might have subsided, but in this survey, criticism of the US remains high.

Among young people in their 20s and 30s, even if they consider themselves moderate or conservative, their critical stance towards the US is very strong. As many as 73% of conservatives in their 20s responded that America's international influence is negative, approaching the 76% of progressives. In their 30s, 57% of moderates and 56% of conservatives responded critically towards the US. In contrast, among those in their 40s and 50s and above, the more progressive they are, the stronger their anti-American sentiment, and the more conservative they are, the more favorable their evaluation of the US. Ultimately, for moderates and conservatives among the younger generation, anti-Americanism and conservatism are compatible.

In other words, the anti-American sentiment observed among the younger generation can be interpreted as a product of cultural resistance rather than ideology, or as a critical stance towards the Bush administration's unilateral diplomatic practices. Concerns about the unilateral diplomacy demonstrated by the US during the Afghan and Iraq Wars following the 9/11 terrorist attacks are likely to have played a significant role. The increasing concern about a preemptive strike against North Korea by the US appears to be stimulating anti-American feelings among the younger generation, who tend to have strong anti-war sentiments.

[Table 1] Trend of Conservatism in Korean Society: Changes in the Size of Conservative and Progressive Segments Among the Younger Generation

2005

[Figure 1] Perception Gap Towards the US by Ideological Tendency Across Generations

[Figure 2] Evaluation of US Responses to Major Foreign Policy Issues by Country