Opinion Brief No. 6: The Crisis of American Soft Power

Opinion Brief No. 6: The Crisis of American Soft Power

1. Crisis of American Soft Power: Global Opinion No Longer Respects U.S. Leadership

2. Worsening Anti-American Sentiment in Korea: Ideological Anti-Americanism Fades Among the 20s and 30s Generation

The Crisis of American Soft Power: Global Opinion No Longer Recognizes U.S. Leadership

-Anti-American sentiment significantly increased in 18 countries surveyed for three consecutive years; 52% view U.S. international leadership negatively.

-Korea's anti-American tendency ranks 14th out of 25 countries, not particularly high.

-57% of Americans acknowledge U.S. leadership, but Americans are also negative about specific policies.

-President Bush's new policy for stabilizing Iraq struggles to gain international consensus.

U.S. leadership is in crisis. This is an analysis of the results from a survey conducted since 2005 by BBC, GlobeScan, Maeil Business Newspaper, and the East Asia Institute, asking citizens in about 20 countries worldwide about "the impact of the United States on the international community." In the 18 countries that have consistently responded to the survey for the past three years, positive responses were evenly split with negative responses in 2005 (40% vs. 46%). In the 2007 survey, positive responses plummeted to 29%, while negative responses increased to 52%.

Looking at the 25 countries surveyed in 2007, positive responses were 32% and negative opinions reached 49%. Chinese citizens, emerging as America's greatest competitor, had a 52% negative view of America's role. Even traditional allies question U.S. leadership. In Germany, 74% responded negatively; in France, 69%; in Australia, 60%; and in Korea, 54% of respondents evaluated U.S. leadership negatively. Notably, even in the UK, which co-led the Iraq War with the U.S., 57% believed the U.S. was having a negative impact on the international community. Among Americans themselves, 57% still viewed U.S. international influence positively, with negative evaluations at 28%. However, excluding some African countries and Eastern European nations like Hungary and Poland among the 25 countries, negative evaluations significantly outweighed positive ones. While critical public opinion regarding America's international role is prevalent in Korea, it is relatively difficult to characterize it as strongly anti-American. [Figure 1-3], [Table 1]

Evaluations of the U.S. response to major international issues are even more severe. [Figure 4] In the 2007 survey, only 20% expressed support for the U.S. approach to the Iraq War, while opposition reached 73%. Specifically, 68% of all respondents believed that U.S. troops stationed in the Middle East were causing conflict. Only 28% and 21% supported the U.S. approach to Iran's nuclear issue and the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, respectively, in its Middle East diplomacy efforts. This appears to reflect a critical perception of the one-sided pro-Israel policy. Additionally, only 27% supported the U.S. approach to the issue of global warming, as the U.S. delays its accession to the Kyoto Protocol aimed at regulating carbon dioxide emissions.

Regarding specific policy matters, even Americans themselves are critical. 57% of Americans responded that they do not agree with the U.S. approach to the Iraq War. 53% of Americans agree with the assertion that U.S. troops in Iraq are a source of conflict rather than contributing to regional stability. Regarding Iran policy, 41% were in favor and 50% opposed; for the Israel-Hezbollah conflict policy, 46% were in favor and 47% opposed.

The policy on North Korea's nuclear issue received relatively favorable evaluations. Although 54% of all respondents were critical of the U.S. policy toward North Korea, it was the most favorable evaluation compared to other policies. This suggests that the U.S. government's approach to the North Korean nuclear issue, which involves diplomatic means such as the Six-Party Talks, has mitigated criticism of unilateral U.S. diplomacy.

As Joseph Nye pointed out, in the age of information and globalization, power is not solely defined by military or economic strength. Since the 21st century, the ability to elicit voluntary assimilation and cooperation based on cultural, value-based, and moral superiority, alongside traditional physical power, has garnered attention as a source of leadership. This is what is termed 'soft power.' While the U.S. continues to exert influence as the world's strongest nation by leveraging its traditional power advantages in military and economy, domestic and international perceptions are cold. The new policy for stabilizing Iraq, announced by the Bush administration in early January, proposes the swift elimination of armed forces through additional troop deployment to Iraq. This again seems to lean towards strengthening physical power through military expansion. The issue lies with soft power, which captures public sentiment.

[Figure 1] Evaluation of U.S. Leadership in 18 Countries Surveyed for Three Consecutive Years (2005-2007)

Germany Russia Mexico USA Brazil UK Argentina Egypt India Indonesia China Chile Turkey Portugal Poland France Korea Australia

[Figure 2] Comparison of Public Opinion in 18 Countries and U.S. Citizens' Evaluation of U.S. Leadership: Percentage Responding "Positive"

[Figure 3] Evaluation of U.S. Leadership by Citizens of Major Powers: Percentage Responding "Negative"

[Table 1] Classification of U.S. Leadership Evaluation in 25 Countries: Percentage Responding "Negative"

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

[Figure 4] Evaluation of U.S. Individual Foreign Policies by Citizens of 25 Countries

South Korean Perceptions of the U.S.: A Deteriorating Trend in Perceptions

Strengthening Anti-American Sentiment Despite North Korean Nuclear Threat and Rise of Moderates

-U.S. International Role "Positive" Evaluation: 2005 52% → 2006 44% → 2007 35%

-Ideologically, even among the younger generation, conservatives now outnumber progressives, yet anti-American sentiment persists.

-Ideological anti-Americanism is fading among the younger demographic.

-For those in their 20s and 30s, conservative views coexist with anti-American sentiments.

Anti-American sentiment, which had been declining since North Korea publicly disclosed its nuclear development program in 2004, shows signs of increasing again. 55% of South Koreans responded that they do not agree with the U.S. approach to North Korea's nuclear development, with only 43% in favor.

Regarding the impact of the United States on the international order, the 2005 survey showed that a majority (52%) responded that the U.S. has a positive impact internationally. This figure decreased to 44% in the 2006 survey and was only 35% in the 2007 survey. Until the early 2000s, the threat from North Korea and positive perceptions of the ROK-U.S. alliance tended to operate in inverse directions. That is, as the North Korean threat increased, pro-American sentiment strengthened, and conversely, as inter-Korean relations improved, critical public opinion toward the U.S. intensified.

However, recently, there has been a tendency for anti-American sentiment to grow alongside increasing concerns about the North Korean nuclear threat and societal conservatism. The survey was conducted in late November and early December, a period when the reverberations of North Korea's nuclear test had not yet subsided. Furthermore, among those in their 20s, 25% were progressive, 46% moderate, and 29% conservative; among those in their 30s, 22% were progressive, 50% moderate, and 27% conservative, indicating a considerable increase in the moderate and conservative segments within the younger generation. In the 2005 survey, 44% of those in their 20s were progressive, and 34% of those in their 30s were progressive. In the past, critical public opinion toward the U.S. might have been expected to subside, but this survey shows high levels of criticism toward the U.S.

Among young people in their 20s and 30s, even if they identify as moderate or conservative, their critical stance towards the U.S. is very strong. As many as 73% of conservatives in their 20s responded that the U.S.'s international influence is negative, approaching the 76% of progressives. Among those in their 30s, 57% of moderates and 56% of conservatives responded critically towards the U.S. In contrast, among those in their 40s and 50s and older, the more progressive they are, the stronger their anti-American sentiment, and the more conservative they are, the more favorable their evaluation of the U.S. Ultimately, for moderates and conservatives among the younger generation, anti-Americanism and conservatism are compatible.

In other words, the anti-American sentiment observed among the younger generation can be interpreted as a product of cultural resistance rather than ideology, or as a critical stance towards the Bush administration's unilateral diplomatic behavior. Concerns about the unilateral diplomacy demonstrated by the U.S. during the Afghan and Iraq Wars following the 9/11 terrorist attacks appear to have played a significant role. The rising concerns about a preemptive strike against North Korea by the U.S. seem to be stimulating anti-American feelings among the younger generation, who tend to have strong anti-war sentiments.

[Table 1] Trend of Conservatism in South Korean Society: Changes in the Size of Conservative and Progressive Segments Among the Younger Generation

2005

[Figure 1] Perception Gap Towards the U.S. by Generational Ideological Orientation

[Figure 2] Evaluation of U.S. Responses to Foreign Policy Issues by Country