[EAI Public Opinion Brief No. 1] Analysis of Korean Social Issue Structure and the 2007 Presidential Election Competition

Topic 1. Preliminary Analysis of Korean Social Issue Structure and the 2007 Presidential Election Competition

Jeong Han-wool (Senior Research Fellow, EAI)

Source: EAI
Korea Daily (2006.12.11)

1. Analysis of Issues and Party Support

1) "The Public Wants an Economic President."

By examining the public's priority ranking of future national agenda issues through the most desired capability for the next president, it is evident that the public primarily designates economic issues as the most crucial task for the next president. The "political reform issue" and the "anti-American/security issue," which were key points of contention in the 2002 presidential election, are not currently receiving significant public attention. Therefore, under the current issue structure, parties or candidates with strengths in economic issues are likely to hold a considerably advantageous position. However, this economic issue encompasses not only economic growth but also a strong emphasis on resolving social polarization, suggesting that new value debates may arise within the economic issue itself.

(1) Economic Growth 36.1% (2) Wealth Gap and Welfare Improvement 27.4% (3) Resolving Social Conflict and National Unity 22.4%

(4) Political Reform and Leadership 11.2% (5) Inter-Korean Relations/Security 2.4%

2) "Uri Party Lacks Superiority on Social Polarization Issue as Well"

: Voting Party by Major Agenda Item

"Grand National Party Superiority Across All Issues"

Notably, 43.6% responded they would vote for a Grand National Party candidate for economic growth/job creation. Until now, the prevailing perception was that the Grand National Party was an entrenched party. Consequently, a strategy for the government and ruling party could have been to explore ways to highlight the issue of social polarization, which could accentuate the Grand National Party's vulnerabilities. However, the Uri Party is being largely overlooked even by voters who prioritize polarization and distribution issues.

"Uri Party Lagging Behind the Democratic Labor Party"

It is also noteworthy that the Uri Party is not scoring higher than the Democratic Labor Party on political reform and leadership, social integration capabilities, and inter-Korean relations improvement capabilities. This suggests the depth of distrust in the current government/ruling party.

2. Analysis of Candidate Strengths and Weaknesses by Issue

1) Lee Myung-bak leads in every issue category, with Park Geun-hye and Goh Kun fiercely competing for second place.

Social Integration: Lee Myung-bak 31.6% > Park Geun-hye 13% > Goh Kun 12.6%

Wealth Gap: Lee Myung-bak 23.0% > Park Geun-hye 15% > Goh Kun 13.5%

Political Reform: Lee Myung-bak 21.6% > Goh Kun 18.1% > Park Geun-hye 11%

Economic Growth: Lee Myung-bak 31.2% > Park Geun-hye 19% > Goh Kun 11.3%

2) Strengths and Weaknesses of the Big Three Candidates

Candidate Lee Myung-bak garners significant support among voters prioritizing economic growth/social integration compared to other candidates, but his support base is relatively weaker among those who prioritize wealth gap and political reform issues. In essence, Lee Myung-bak, as a former business executive, appears to have succeeded in projecting an image of a leader who can drive economic growth, independent of ideological debates. Given that 58.5% of respondents cited economic growth and social integration as the top priorities for a president, his current position is highly advantageous under the existing issue structure.

Conversely, Candidate Park Geun-hye receives relatively high marks for leadership in economic growth but lower marks from voters emphasizing social integration and political reform issues. This can be interpreted as a consequence of her firm stance whenever national identity-related political disputes arose. However, her inability to demonstrate strength in any particular issue can be identified as a weakness, making it difficult for her to proactively lead the election agenda.

Former Prime Minister Goh Kun is in a statistical tie with Lee Myung-bak within the margin of error in the areas of political reform and political leadership, but he has not made a distinct impression in other areas. For Prime Minister Goh, a strategy that involves establishing political reform or leadership as a primary issue and subsequently highlighting his leadership in other domains appears necessary.

3. Diagnosis of the Ruling Party's Presidential Election Strategy

1) The Variable is the "Undecided Voters."

With over 40% of undecided voters currently existing, the movement of these undecided voters is expected to solidify depending on the outcome of the ongoing political realignment. In the 2002 presidential election, the Uri Party successfully politicized the issue of "political reform," for which it held a clear comparative advantage over the Grand National Party, thereby creating the so-called "Roh Wave." This enabled the party to consolidate its support base, attract a broad range of undecided voters, and overcome the "Lee Hoi-chang's momentum." Given the significant gap in approval ratings at present, the ruling party's strategy hinges on how it can re-mobilize its support base while attracting undecided voters.

2) Uri Party, "Is a Repeat of 2002 Possible?"

"Difficult to Politicize Justifications as in 2002"

In 2002, the "Roh Wave" could begin under conditions where a public ignition factor like political reform existed, coupled with the perfect catalyst of a national primary. The political reform issue was directed at the Grand National Party, and the Uri Party's internal political reforms, such as the national primary system, could further highlight the Grand National Party's weaknesses. However, current public criticism is directed not at the Grand National Party but at the Uri Party, as evidenced by recent local election results and opinion polls. Without introspection and strenuous efforts to formulate a vision for the issues facing the ruling party, which are the focus of public criticism, undecided voters are unlikely to shift easily. Particularly, as presidential elections tend to exhibit a tendency towards prospective voting based on future outlook and values rather than retrospective voting judging the incumbent, if the Uri Party can overcome its current difficulties and introduce new value-based issues, the election outcome could remain uncertain. However, the question remains whether the Uri Party's current state can meet these expectations.

As observed earlier, with no issues where the Uri Party holds a superior position, attempts at political realignment or institutional reform for electoral strategy purposes will lack legitimacy. In other words, in a situation where a persuasive answer to the question of "what is this political realignment for?" and "what is this reform for?" cannot be provided, the ruling party's pursuit of political realignment and institutional reform will be perceived merely as artificial political engineering solely for the purpose of gaining the presidency. It is unnecessary to reiterate that the public's aversion to political engineering lacking legitimacy has reached a considerable level through democratization.

3) "Open Primary" is the Wrong Prescription

Setting aside the debate on whether "open primaries" are suitable for the reality of Korean party politics, the approach taken by some leaders of the ruling party, who seem to view "open primaries" as a panacea to overcome the current disadvantage, is a diagnosis that misses the core of the problem. Proponents of open primaries recall the effect of the national primary system in 2002. However, the effect of the national primary system at that time was possible because it was predicated on public demand for political reform, and it directed public dissatisfaction with the Grand National Party's reluctance towards political reform towards the Grand National Party, thereby generating expectations for the then-Democratic Party. The crucial difference now is that public dissatisfaction is focused more on the Uri Party than on the Grand National Party. Without introspection and the presentation of a vision for reform regarding this issue, the introduction of open primaries is likely to replicate the lackluster national primaries of the ruling party during the last local elections.

Following the crushing defeat in the last election, it was reported through the media that some officials within the ruling party lamented, "We truly don't know what we did so wrong." Perhaps, the process of finding their own answer to this question is likely to be the first step in the ruling party's election strategy.