A Smart Alliance in the Age of Complexity

Professor Shin Sung-ho is a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University, and has served as a member of the Defense Policy Advisory Committee of the Ministry of National Defense.

Abstract

Complex Security and a Smart Alliance: The Future of the ROK-US Alliance in the 21st Century

The security environment surrounding the ROK-US alliance in the 21st century is far more complex and multifaceted than during the Cold War. South Korea is being called upon to play more numerous and diverse new roles than before. While a concrete vision for the future of the ROK-US alliance in the 21st century has not yet been presented by the governments of both countries, questions about the alliance's future are being raised. This paper argues that the ROK and the US share sufficient common interests to maintain their alliance despite the diverse and complex security threats and new challenges of the 21st century. The vision for the ROK-US alliance in the 21st century requires the alliance to move beyond the persistent threat of the Cold War on the Korean Peninsula and to jointly address regional and global security issues. As a new approach to dealing with complex security tasks at the Korean Peninsula, East Asian, and global levels, the ROK and the US should pursue a smart alliance. A smart ROK-US alliance envisions the flexible application of strategies and roles by both countries according to the threat targets and different levels of spatial missions, combining a hard (military) alliance with a soft alliance.

First, a smart alliance at the global level is a concept to implement the goal of a ROK-US "strategic alliance" contributing to world peace, as proposed by President Lee Myung-bak in the 21st century. To combat terrorism, one of the most significant security threats at the global level in the 21st century, the United States is engaged in a global war on terror, with Afghanistan as the primary battlefield. South Korea is not free from the threat of terrorism, as evidenced by terrorist acts against Korean nationals in Iraq, Afghanistan, and recently in Yemen. This is why South Korea's participation in the war in Afghanistan is necessary. However, considering the security situation on the Korean Peninsula and domestic political circumstances, South Korea's military intervention is currently difficult. Instead, South Korea can play a role in a soft alliance, supporting the US's counter-terrorism military strategy by expanding its civilian reconstruction team, including the existing medical personnel, and increasing economic and technical support for reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. This non-military soft alliance role for South Korea can be expanded to include increased overseas aid in the fight against poverty, which the US has identified as another global issue, international cooperation on climate and environmental threats, and support for peacekeeping operations. Meanwhile, the recent joint deployment of naval forces with the US to Somalia for anti-piracy operations has opened up new possibilities for a hard alliance, with both countries jointly responding militarily to global threats.

Second, regional threats include efforts to cope with the increased uncertainty arising from China's rise in the Asian region. In this case, both countries should pursue a soft alliance strategy rather than a hard (military) alliance. Maintaining a constructive friendly relationship with a rising China is an important policy goal for both countries. At the same time, both countries are required to prepare for the uncertainties that may arise from China's long-term rise. Rather than direct military responses such as containment or blockade against China's rise itself, both countries should prepare for economic crises, political and social instability, and exclusive nationalism that may occur during China's rise. While pursuing close cooperation with China to resolve regional security issues, such as through the Six-Party Talks, wisdom is required to jointly address potential disagreements and friction between the two countries in the event of a North Korean sudden change of regime. At the same time, a soft strategy is required to build a system that can more stably manage regional security by making efforts to establish new multilateral security consultative bodies or organizations in Northeast or East Asia.

Third, in the case of the Korean Peninsula, North Korea's conventional military threats and development of weapons of mass destruction necessitate that the hard alliance role, which the ROK-US alliance has traditionally pursued, remains important. Currently, both countries are pursuing the realignment of US Forces Korea, the transfer of wartime operational control, and the

For the success of the ROK-US smart alliance in the 21st century, as presented above, both countries are required to make the following efforts.

· Understand and acknowledge differing priorities in security interests: It is necessary to understand and acknowledge the reality that the priorities of security interests held by both countries may not perfectly align regarding the complex security environment and threats of the 21st century, such as the global war on terror, the rise of China, and North Korea's nuclear program on the Korean Peninsula.

· Emphasize common interests: Nevertheless, both countries clearly share security interests in each respective domain, and it is important to recognize and emphasize that the ROK-US alliance remains the most effective common means for the security interests of both nations.

· Successfully conclude the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON): Despite some concerns and technical and financial difficulties, the ongoing readjustment of US Forces Korea and the transfer of wartime operational control are an inevitable trend of the times. All these tasks must be successfully and smoothly completed for the long-term development of the ROK-US alliance.

· Establish close cooperation on North Korea: Differences in opinion between the ROK and the US regarding North Korea's nuclear weapons and potential sudden changes in its regime should not be highlighted. Both countries share more fundamental interests with each other than any other regarding the complete denuclearization of North Korea, peace on the Korean Peninsula, and ultimate unification. Through close cooperation on North Korea, the ROK and the US must neutralize North Korea's strategy of engaging with the US while isolating South Korea and find effective solutions.

· Jointly initiate efforts for multilateral security: A multilateral security framework in the Northeast Asian region can be an effective means to complement and strengthen the functions and objectives of the ROK-US alliance. Although there are currently many practical constraints, both the ROK and the US must take the lead in multilateral security efforts in Northeast Asia from a long-term perspective, thereby dispelling regional suspicions about the ROK-US alliance and evolving into a comprehensive alliance that contributes to regional security and world peace.