North Korea and the World: The Visualization of Kim Ju-ae's Succession and Challenges for Solidifying the Fourth Hereditary Succession

YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L8mPVZ_wGU

Video Script

There are inevitably significant limitations regarding whether Kim Ju-ae can control North Korean society. Thank you to everyone watching Park Won-gon's North Korea and the World. Today, we must discuss Kim Ju-ae. This is the third time on North Korea and the World. Given the endless controversy surrounding Kim Ju-ae, I feel the need to summarize it once again. Crucially, the National Intelligence Service announced that the succession plan for Kim Ju-ae has become clearer, drawing renewed attention from global media. It has been quite some time since Kim Ju-ae first appeared. Her initial appearance was in November 2022, so it has already been four years by count. Many things have happened during these four years, and she has shown various actions, but one of the still uncertain aspects of North Korea is that the name Kim Ju-ae has not yet appeared in North Korean media.

The Visualization of Kim Ju-ae's Succession Plan and Its Basis

The name Kim Ju-ae became known in September 2013 when American professional basketball player Dennis Rodman visited North Korea. He met with Ri Sol-ju at the time and mentioned recognizing their daughter, Ju-ae, in an interview with the British newspaper The Guardian. As it was written as 'Ju Ae' in English, it was not precisely confirmed what Hanja or Korean characters were used. Some defectors have revealed the name as Ju-ye, suggesting the name itself is correct. However, importantly, she is not yet referred to by the name Kim Ju-ae; North Korea's official media uses expressions like 'beloved' or 'respected child.' I will summarize the NIS announcement. On February 12th, the National Assembly Intelligence Committee was informed that Kim Jong-un has been gradually revealing a succession plan for Kim Ju-ae, and since the end of last year, her status as the second-highest in protocol order has been emphasized. This indicates that Kim Ju-ae has moved one step closer as a successor. The current assessment is that she has entered the stage of being designated as a successor.

Several grounds were cited for this, one being that Kim Ju-ae's presence has been highlighted at events such as the Military Foundation Day celebration and visits to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun. Her appearance at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on January 1st, 2026, was captured by North Korean media. In the photograph, Kim Ju-ae stands in the center between Kim Jong-un and Ri Sol-ju. The overall composition of the photograph emphasizes Kim Ju-ae. Given North Korea's emphasis on protocol, this effectively demonstrates her as the primary successor, the legitimate heir of the Paektu bloodline. Naturally, in the North Korean system, Kim Jong-un, as the supreme leader and Suryong, holds the first position in all protocol and should stand in the center. However, Kim Ju-ae standing in the center this time is considered significant evidence, as the NIS stated, that she is in the designation phase of the succession plan.

Furthermore, a Unification Ministry official stated that attention is being paid to the titles used for Kim Ju-ae, one of which is 'Hyangdo' (향도). This term appeared on March 16, 2024. The expression 'Hyangdo' means to illuminate the path forward and guide the direction in revolutionary struggle. Why is this significant? The only individuals who can receive the title 'Hyangdo' are the Suryong, the supreme leader of North Korea. This expression has only been used for Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un. On March 16, 2024, the North Korean Rodong Sinmun reported, 'The great Hyangdo individuals, along with party, government, and military officials, toured the Kangdong General Greenhouse.'

It should be used in the plural. Naturally, it should be singular, referring only to Kim Jong-un. However, the plural 'great Hyangdo individuals' can be interpreted as referring to Kim Ju-ae, who accompanied Kim Jong-un. In the sense that a title used only for the Suryong or supreme leader was applied, it can be said that Kim Ju-ae has shown her status as a successor. One of the characteristics of the North Korean system is the great importance placed on titles. The presence or absence of certain titles preceding a name confirms whether they have ascended to the level of supreme leader. Since 'Hyangdo' is an expression used exclusively for the supreme leader, its application to Kim Ju-ae as a title suggests that the possibility of her succession is viewed favorably. Additionally, according to a November 2023 report by Radio Free Asia (RFA), a source in Pyongyang referred to Kim Ju-ae as 'The New Star, the Female General of Joseon.' This is highly significant.

This is significant because 'Joseon' refers to the entire Korean Peninsula, and the title 'Star' has only been used for Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un. Kim Il-sung was called 'Sun,' and Kim Jong-il was called 'Light.' The use of 'New Star' for Kim Ju-ae indicates she has moved one step closer to the succession plan. According to RFA reports, the party leadership in Pyongyang held a lecture commemorating the satellite launch, attended by officials from the party, the Ministry of State Security, and the Ministry of Social Security. This expression was reportedly used there.

The exact phrase is, 'The future of the era of a space power will shine brighter through the New Star, the Female General of Joseon.' This clearly refers to Kim Ju-ae. While this expression has not been officially published in North Korean media, its use itself suggests that Kim Ju-ae has significantly approached the status of a successor. Recently, Kim Ju-ae's activities have also shown her moving closer to the public. On February 17th, North Korean media, including the Korean Central News Agency and Rodong Sinmun, reported on Kim Ju-ae's appearance at the completion ceremony for 50,000 housing units in Pyongyang, where her interaction with residents was unusually highlighted. Interaction with North Korean residents is something only the supreme leader, the Suryong, does. This is done by Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un. This event was particularly significant because North Korea announced at the 8th Party Congress (2021) a crucial task: to build 50,000 housing units over five years, at a rate of 10,000 units per year. Therefore, the event on the 17th marked the completion of the final 10,000 units, fulfilling the goal of 50,000 units in Phase 4 of the Hwaseong District project. Kim Ju-ae attended this ceremony and was seen interacting with North Korean residents. Her appearance at such a significant project, showing embrace towards the North Korean populace, is reminiscent of the actions of a Suryong or supreme leader, suggesting an effort to further highlight Kim Ju-ae's succession prospects. Overall, the possibility of her becoming a successor appears to be clearly increasing. In particular, the emphasis on her being 'loved by the people,' as just mentioned, can be seen as an effort to create a justification for promoting Kim Ju-ae.

Potential Power Struggle with Kim Yo-jong

Additionally, the British newspaper The Telegraph reported on the possibility of a power struggle between Kim Jong-un's sister, Kim Yo-jong, and Kim Ju-ae if the latter were to become the supreme leader. The report suggests that if Kim Jong-un were to suddenly become incapacitated and Kim Ju-ae were designated as successor, Kim Yo-jong might engage in a power struggle with Kim Ju-ae. The report emphasized that Kim Yo-jong already possesses a solid foundation within the party and military. Therefore, if an opportunity to seize power arose, she could potentially win a power struggle against her young niece. I hold a different view on this. This is because the North Korean system itself makes it difficult for Kim Yo-jong to establish a solid foundation. All foundations are controlled by the supreme leader, the Suryong.

If Kim Yo-jong were to establish her own independent base, it would be considered factionalism, which North Korea views with extreme sensitivity and thoroughly suppresses. Logically, in a one-man authoritarian regime like North Korea, a second-in-command cannot be tolerated. The existence of a second-in-command implies the formation of a support base for that individual, leading to the inevitable sidelining of even one's own sister. Therefore, even if Kim Yo-jong were to gain prominence due to Kim Jong-un's incapacitation, my fundamental belief is that her influence would be difficult to sustain. Consequently, a conflict between Kim Yo-jong and Kim Ju-ae is highly unlikely.

The Fundamental Limitations of Kim Ju-ae's Succession Plan

From another perspective, the discussion revolves around the direct bloodline of the Paektu bloodline. Of course, Kim Jong-un is not Kim Jong-il's eldest son. While he is a direct descendant, he has a complex family background with a different mother. The crucial point is that Kim Jong-un's child inherits power; it is highly unlikely for Kim Jong-un's sister, Kim Yo-jong, to inherit power. Kim Yo-jong is a collateral relative. Therefore, Kim Yo-jong's role is likely to be to support the direct descendant of the Paektu bloodline, perhaps Kim Ju-ae, rather than to replace her. This is one of the characteristics of the North Korean Paektu bloodline. While I have discussed the possibility of Kim Ju-ae becoming the fourth-generation successor, I will now address the limitations. Assuming the possibility of Kim Ju-ae becoming a successor is very high, what limitations would arise if such a situation occurred? There would inevitably be significant limitations. In a sense, these are limitations that Kim Jong-un of North Korea must overcome. The first and perhaps the biggest obstacle to Kim Ju-ae's emergence as a successor is the party-centered system in North Korea. To hold a position within the party, one must be at least 18 years old. However, Kim Ju-ae is estimated to be born in 2013, making her 13 years old. She needs about five more years to reach 18 and become a party member to receive a party position. Therefore, this is a fundamental limitation: she has not yet reached the age to hold the most important party positions.

For reference, Kim Jong-il officially received his position within the party at the 6th Party Congress in 1980, and Kim Jong-un at the 3rd Party Conference in 2010. These events institutionalized their status as successors. Similarly, Kim Ju-ae must reach a certain age to be officially recognized as a successor. Another limitation is her gender. While the North Korean system has seen women like Kim Yo-jong (Vice Department Director of the Workers' Party), Choe Son-hui (Minister of Foreign Affairs), Hyon Song-wol (Vice Department Director of the Operations Department), and Kim Jong-sun (Head of the Workers' Party's Mass Organizations Department) rise to high positions, and some argue that women can now be leaders in North Korea unlike before, this is only partially true. While women have reached higher positions than in the past, there are still no women in positions such as members of the Central Committee or members of the Politburo Standing Committee. Overall, the number of women in high-ranking positions is very limited, and they primarily serve in functional or supportive roles, not in positions of supreme power. Furthermore, the more Kim Ju-ae is highlighted, the more speculation about Kim Jong-un's health issues arises. This is because Kim Jong-un is reportedly born in 1984, still a young age.

The continuous discussion of a successor suggests a reasonable inference that there might be issues with Kim Jong-un's health. Some researchers argue that it would be strange if Kim Jong-un's health were not problematic. As you may have seen in the media, he is clearly overweight, and there is a family history of health issues. In this context, Kim Jong-un's health could be precarious at any time. Moreover, the continuous discussion of designating his young daughter as a successor implies that if Kim Jong-un were to disappear from the media, health issues could easily surface. Another point is that even if a daughter is formalized as a successor, she becomes a second-in-command. The emergence of a second-in-command inevitably leads to people gathering around them, potentially forming a power base. If such a power base emerges, it could pose a challenge to Kim Jong-un, which is something the North Korean system cannot tolerate. However, how to overcome the establishment of a second-in-command could be a significant challenge for Kim Jong-un.

Challenges as a Female Leader

The core issue ultimately lies in persuasion within North Korea. The North Korean system itself remains highly patriarchal. It is a society where Confucian traditions are strongly ingrained, raising a fundamental question of whether a female leader would be accepted. North Korea is defined in various ways. One definition is a guerrilla state. This was articulated by Professor Wada Haruki, Professor Emeritus at the University of Tokyo. North Korea continues to utilize the narrative of Kim Il-sung's anti-Japanese guerrilla struggle in the 1930s. In recent North Korean military parades, the first unit to appear is the 7th Regiment, which participated in the guerrilla struggle. They are presented as a symbolic vanguard, appearing on horseback.

The resistance against Japanese imperialism in the 1930s has now transformed into a response against US imperialism, and this narrative continues to be linked to the legitimacy of the Paektu bloodline. The characteristic of this narrative is that, as it is a guerrilla struggle, legitimacy is conferred through military activities undertaken by men. However, Kim Ju-ae is not male and has no experience in military activities. Therefore, a pertinent question arises as to how this narrative can continue to be accepted. Another aspect is that North Korea constitutes a great family, with the 'Father Suryong' at its apex. While we conventionally consider the term 'Father' to be value-neutral, in North Korea, Kim Il-sung is consistently referred to as 'Father.'

This raises the question of whether Kim Ju-ae can ascend to the role of 'Father' within the North Korean system, which is structured as a family state and a great family. Finally, there is the aspect of being a Confucian state, emphasizing tradition, resisting change, and utilizing tradition. Another characteristic is that it is an extremely male-dominated society, and there is a question of whether Kim Ju-ae, as a woman, can control a North Korean society with strong Confucian traditions. Crucially, both Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un, while deriving legitimacy from Kim Il-sung within the Paektu bloodline, must have had their own distinct achievements. Kim Jong-il, amidst the chaos following the end of the Cold War, navigated through his 'Songun' (military-first) politics and socialist construction in our style, which is cited as his achievement. Kim Jong-un, as we have observed over the past nearly 14 years, has, in their terms, completed the nuclear armament, creating a history that prioritizes nuclear weapons. The scene where Kim Ju-ae was brought along was at the launch site of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile.

Considering these aspects, it is highly likely that there are significant limitations regarding whether Kim Ju-ae can create a narrative that showcases her achievements, particularly as a woman. Overall, while it is clear that Kim Ju-ae has moved a step closer to the succession plan, if she were to be designated successor prematurely, or if a woman were chosen as successor, there would be considerable challenges in whether the North Korean system could properly accept and explain this, grant legitimacy, and maintain stability. Even as I say this, I feel a sense of unease.

This is because we are discussing a very pre-modern concept. A third-generation hereditary succession is unprecedented, and the prospect of a fourth-generation succession is not a pleasant one. Nevertheless, we must observe North Korea and, from the position of sensitively tracking and analyzing changes in the North Korean system, I have discussed the succession of Kim Ju-ae. Thank you to all who have watched.

■ Author: Park Won-gon (Director of the North Korea Research Center at the East Asia Institute, Professor at Ewha Womans University's Department of North Korean Studies)

■ Management and Editing: Lim Jae-hyun (EAI Researcher)

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 209) | jhlim@eai.or.kr