A Prepared Agenda is Key to Presidential Success

Since initiating the project "Conditions for Presidential Success" in 2002, the East Asia Institute (EAI) has explored institutionalization strategies for the desirable roles, powers, and responsibilities of presidents in a democracy through projects such as "Conditions for Successful Presidential Transition" (2007) and "Conditions for Presidential Success in 2013" (2012), conducted every five years. To mark the presidential election year of 2017, EAI invited Professor Park Hyung-joon of Dong-A University (former Secretary-General of the National Assembly) on March 31, 2016, to hold the third round table discussion on "Conditions for Presidential Success in 2018."

The President Who Reads the Trends of the Times and the Public Sentiment

Five years is a very short period for a president serving a single term. While managing the existing system might be less demanding, a presidency with insufficient preparation during a period of structural transition, which could even determine the nation's fate, can lead to disaster. Thus, there are inevitably many demands placed upon those who aspire to the presidency and those who seek to elect them.

First and foremost, the president must accurately grasp the prevailing trends of the times. This involves understanding global economic systems and international political dynamics to interpret the situation through a long-term perspective. It requires insight into domestic economic and social conditions, as well as political power dynamics and landscapes. Above all, sensitivity is needed to read the public's demands and the flow of public sentiment.

The President's Agenda

Must Be Based on Comprehensive and Dynamic Analysis

Based on a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of these factors, the core ideology and priority tasks of state administration must be selected. This means having a blueprint for the values and vision with which the five-year term will be managed. It is no exaggeration to say that the president's agenda setting determines more than 50 percent of the success of a five-year term.

Past presidents since democratization have had their own presidential agendas. The Roh Tae-woo administration, discerning global changes, pursued northern policies such as establishing diplomatic relations with China to secure a leading role in the new East Asian order.

The Kim Young-sam administration consistently pursued measures like the real-name financial system and the end of military rule. Although the intention and outcome diverged, with the financial liberalization centered on short-term capital contributing to the foreign exchange crisis, the Kim Young-sam administration was arguably the most prepared in terms of its plans for its five-year term. This was because President Kim Young-sam had a relatively long preparation period from the moment he was confirmed as a candidate, given his high probability of winning, and his personal style of utilizing intellectuals as a broad talent pool led to significant research even before taking office.

The Kim Dae-jung administration, facing a crisis situation immediately upon taking office, could focus on overcoming the foreign exchange crisis and establishing a welfare system. Certain self-philosophies and values must be recognized in tasks such as the introduction of the basic livelihood security system and the separation of medical and pharmaceutical services.

The presidential agenda of the Roh Moo-hyun administration involved highly contentious issues, making it difficult to expect success from the outset. While it championed de-authoritarianization, core state affairs centered on difficult-to-agree-upon topics such as the so-called "four major reform legislations" (National Security Act, Private School Act, etc.) and the relocation of the administrative capital. It is unlikely that these were tasks President Roh Moo-hyun was best suited to handle. The Lee Myung-bak administration prioritized green growth and establishing the nation's global standing amidst the global financial crisis. It is regrettable that the achievements of this period have not been accumulated by the current administration. The Park Geun-hye administration's sole agenda was creative economy, but its implementation faced various controversial aspects.

How systematically were these core tasks prepared and executed? Observing the implementation of presidential agendas thus far, the lack of execution strategies and know-how, i.e., process management, has been severe. Did any president effectively operate a transition team? Did any president establish concrete plans for the early period of their administration? Were specific plans and strategies for governing formulated? Were the goals of priority tasks clearly defined and set for practical effect? And was focus adequately maintained on those tasks? Was the public's energy mobilized, and a positive flow of public sentiment toward state affairs fostered? Few presidents can answer these questions affirmatively. The Kim Young-sam administration is the only case that effectively operated a transition team.

While everyone agrees on the importance of executing the priority tasks of a five-year term within the first one or two years, most plans and strategies for governing have been largely improvisational and reliant on quick responses. Aspiring presidents and their campaign teams, focused on the election campaign, had little plan for what to do once in power. Preparing election pledges and a presidential agenda are distinct matters. To illustrate with the 2007 presidential election experience, although a planning team was mobilized for the presidential agenda due to candidate Lee Myung-bak's particular interest, it was overwhelmed by the election mechanism and had little influence, failing to systematically connect with the transition committee and the administration. President Kim Dae-jung was able to push his agenda forward only because of the environmental change posed by the foreign exchange crisis.

Virtues a President Must Possess

The first virtue a president must possess is the insight required of a final decision-maker. While it may seem from the outside that the president only makes crucial decisions, they actually make many trivial ones as well. Regardless of whether it is desirable for the president to be involved in every minor detail, such decisions can have significant repercussions when they negatively impact the administration. From these small decisions to larger ones, a president's insight wields immense influence. The president must be able to distinguish between what is important and what is urgent, and this insight must transcend personal emotions.

Second, a dynamic sense of balance in state administration is crucial. The essence of state affairs is complexity and multifacetedness. All issues are interconnected like a balloon effect. Due to their multifaceted nature, public opinion also varies depending on the issue. The president must be able to exercise moderation on each issue through a dynamic sense of balance, rather than mechanical compromise. This ability goes beyond knowledge and experience. It is difficult to expect a dynamic sense of balance without cultivating leadership through the formation of broad interpersonal relationships.

Third, in the era of democratization and informatization, sensitivity to public opinion is more important than ever. Its essence lies in communication and empathy. There are criticisms that not only the current administration but also past administrations failed to adequately publicize their state affairs agendas. The criticism that "the intentions behind the Four Major Rivers Project were good, but it was poorly publicized" is not a valid criticism. It was a political issue, not a publicity issue. One-way communication is not communication.

Fourth, political capability and the exercise of power based on democracy are important. After presidential elections, there is a tendency for appointments to be concentrated among a select inner circle. This is also a reason why the public image of the president's exercise of power has been limited in the early stages of administrations. The president must escape the trap of the inner circle to heal divisions and conflicts. However, this is not as easy as it sounds. What is clear is that within the conditions of democracy, power grows when it is shared.

The Competence of Aides Defines the President's Competence

The competence of aides largely defines the competence of the president and the administration. The composition of the initial team of aides is particularly crucial. The transition preparation team from the election campaign must evolve into the transition committee and then into the presidential staff to foster expertise. The ability to provide policy and the ability to manage state affairs are distinct. Experts who wish to participate in state affairs must begin with the transition preparation team and engage in intensive deliberation upon confronting practical politics.

Second, the competence of the Chief of Staff, as the president's shadow, is also very important. This role involves managing the entire presidential office and is a position of significant influence. The Chief of Staff must possess the same virtues required of the president. In the Korean political system, the Chief of Staff effectively plays the role of a vice president. Individuals who are "power-wielding," "figurehead," or "policy-incompetent" must be strictly avoided.

Third, appropriate placement of personnel with experience in the presidential office and state administration is necessary. Whether vertically or horizontally, the presidential office tends to be filled with amateurs after a change of administration. Intentional efforts are needed to place individuals with state administration experience throughout the initial composition of the presidential office. There is no better teacher in state affairs than experience.

Fourth, if possible, it is advisable to retain some former presidential office staff. This is because understanding what the previous administration attempted and what failed allows for the reduction of trial and error.

Fifth, establishing an effective meeting system is essential. The three pillars of the presidential office are political affairs, policy, and public relations. Organic communication and a healthy tension among these three lines are imperative. Debate is necessary among these three lines, and it is preferable for this debate to occur before the president. The president can gain insight not just by receiving the conclusions of debates but by hearing the process of the debates.

The Importance of the First Year in Office

The key to a successful five-year term lies in the reform agenda and its execution during the first year. The Kim Young-sam administration, through planning, and the Kim Dae-jung administration, due to given circumstances, each attempted meaningful changes in their first year. The Roh Moo-hyun administration wasted its first year due to insufficient preparation and misdirected focus of its initial programs, while the Lee Myung-bak administration's first year was hampered by the inexperience of its initial presidential staff and the mad cow disease incident. The Park Geun-hye administration remained at a management level due to a lack of vision and agenda setting. The next administration has a wider range of options for reform tasks that can and should be undertaken in its first year compared to previous administrations. It must identify and systematically prepare political, economic, and social reform tasks that can address the period of structural transition.

How to Harmonize the Presidential Office's Coordination Function with Ministerial Autonomy

Most ministerial functions are linked to political affairs and public relations. Therefore, the presidential office's coordination function in political affairs and public relations is unavoidable. It is desirable to dismantle departmental silos and coordinate political affairs and public relations comprehensively through vice-ministerial meetings chaired by the Senior Secretary for National Policy and the Senior Secretary for Public Relations. Subsequently, in terms of policy, expanding ministerial autonomy is necessary. Since the function of coordinating policy itself lies with the Prime Minister's Office, the primary coordination function should be enhanced by effectively utilizing the Minister for Government Policy Coordination.

Furthermore, the discussion on the extent to which ministers should be granted autonomy in personnel appointments for their affiliated organizations is crucial. There is no issue with granting significant personnel authority. However, post-election "parachute appointments" are inevitable. This issue can be considered from the perspective of ensuring openness in public institution appointments and dismantling vested interests. Nevertheless, expanding ministerial autonomy is the principle. Only then can ministers effectively perform their duties.

President-Parliament Relations

Resolving Adversarial Structures Through Deliberation and Cooperation is Necessary

Looking at the models of president-parliament relations, it appears to be a "regal presidential system," but in reality, it is a system that can institutionalize an "incompetent president." Fundamental reflection on the confrontational system between the National Assembly and the government is needed, and the fundamental solution lies in transforming the political system through constitutional amendment. Even if the current system is maintained, it is necessary to resolve the confrontation between the government and the National Assembly and the adversarial structure between the two parties through deliberation and cooperation. Efficient governance is impossible within an adversarial party structure, and this incapacitates the president. It is necessary for the ruling and opposition parties to bridge their gaps and possess the will to govern together by jointly identifying important agendas. Furthermore, dialogue between the president and political parties must be regularized.■

Park Hyung-joonProfessor Park Hyung-joon of Dong-A University has served as a reporter for the JoongAng Ilbo, Senior Secretary for Public Relations to the President, a member of the 17th National Assembly, Co-Spokesperson for the Grand National Party, Director of Public Relations Planning for the Presidential Office, Senior Secretary for Political Affairs, Special Advisor for Social Affairs, and finally as Secretary-General of the National Assembly Secretariat.

Moderator

Lee Sook-jong, President of EAI, Professor at Sungkyunkwan University

Discussion

Kang Won-taek, Professor at Seoul National University

Kim Seok-ho, Professor at Seoul National University

Kim Jae-il, Professor at Dankook University

Kim Tae-young, Professor at Kyung Hee University

Na Tae-jun, Professor at Yonsei University

Park Won-ho, Professor at Seoul National University

Park Hyung-joon, Director of EAI Governance Center, Professor at Sungkyunkwan University

Lee Nae-young, Director of EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center, Professor at Korea University

Han Gyu-seop, Professor at Seoul National University

Han Seung-joon, Professor at Seoul Women's University

Han Jeong-hoon, Professor at Seoul National University

Bae Jin-seok, Senior Researcher at EAI

Kim Bo-mi, Senior Researcher at EAI