Summary of Key Findings from the 3rd Joint Korea-Japan Public Opinion Survey

The 3rd Korea-Japan National Mutual Perception Survey

The East Asia Institute (EAI) (Director: Lee Sook-jong), a South Korean think tank, and Media NPO (Representative: Yasushi Kudo), a Japanese non-profit think tank, conducted a 'Korea-Japan National Mutual Perception Survey' targeting citizens of both countries from April to May 2015. The survey results will be announced on May 29th at 2:00 PM at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan (FCCJ) in Tokyo. This marks the third such survey, following the first and second conducted in 2013 and 2014. The objective of this survey is to continuously understand the changes in mutual understanding and perceptions between the citizens of both nations, thereby bridging the various perceptual gaps and fostering mutual understanding. The key findings of the 2015 survey will be presented at a press conference at the FCCJ in Tokyo on May 29th at 2:00 PM, attended by approximately 50 domestic and foreign journalists. The materials for this press conference can be found in (1) this summary presentation, (2) the main data tables, and (3) the main findings report.

Press Conference for Domestic and Foreign Media

Date and Time: Friday, May 29, 2015, 2:00 PM

Venue: Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan, Tokyo, Japan

Presenters: Yasushi Kudo (Media NPO), Jeong Han-wool (EAI), Kim Bo-mi (EAI)

The detailed results of this survey will be reported at the '3rd Korea-Japan Future Dialogue' to be held in Tokyo on June 20-21, jointly organized by the East Asia Institute and Media NPO, where further discussions will take place. At the 3rd Korea-Japan Future Dialogue, private experts and intellectuals from both countries will gather to engage in in-depth discussions on ways to narrow the widening perceptual gap between the citizens of both nations and improve the cooling bilateral relations. (※ Please refer to the separate document for an overview of the '3rd Korea-Japan Future Dialogue'.)

Key Findings of the 3rd Joint Korea-Japan Public Opinion Survey

Deterioration of Mutual Image Between Korean and Japanese Citizens: Worst Bilateral Public Sentiment Since 2004

South Koreans' perception of Japan has worsened again: 76.6% in 2013 → 70.9% in 2014 → 72.5% in 2015

Japanese respondents who hold a "bad image" of South Korea: 37.3% in 2013 → 54.4% in 2014 → 52.4% in 2015

The proportion of South Koreans who responded that their impression of Japan is 'good' or 'generally good' decreased slightly from last year to 15.7% (17.5% in 2014). Conversely, 72.5% (70.9% in 2014) responded that their impression is 'not good' or 'generally not good,' indicating that seven out of ten still hold a negative image. Among Japanese respondents, only 23.8% (20.5% in 2014) found their impression of South Korea to be 'good' or 'generally good,' while 52.4% held a 'not good' or 'generally not good' impression, exceeding half. Although the negative responses among Japanese citizens did not further worsen in the 2015 survey after a 17.1 percentage point increase between 2013 and 2014, more than half still maintain a negative image of South Korea. This suggests that the once-deteriorated image of South Korea is not easily reversed.

[Reference] Rapid Deterioration of Korea-Japan Public Sentiment Over the Past Decade

Reasons for Deterioration of Korea-Japan Relations: South Korea Cites "Historical Issues and Territorial Disputes," Japan Cites "South Korea's Criticism of Japan"

South Korea Perceives Japan as the Second Most Significant Military Threat After North Korea

56.9% of South Koreans Associate Japan with "Militarism"; 55.7% of Japanese Associate South Korea with "Nationalism"

The primary reason cited by South Koreans for their negative impression of Japan is that "Japan has not properly reflected on its invasion history," with 74.0% of respondents agreeing, a slight decrease from 76.8% last year but still exceeding 70%. "Territorial issues" was also cited by 69.3% (71.6% last year), nearing 70%. For Japanese respondents, the main reason for their negative impression of South Korea was "continuous criticism of Japan over historical issues," with 74.6% of respondents agreeing, maintaining the 70% range from the previous year (73.9%). "Territorial disputes" was cited by 36.5%, followed by this, but it showed a slight decrease from 41.9% last year.

From a security perspective, while both South Korea and Japan view North Korea as the primary military threat (83.4% of South Koreans and 71.6% of Japanese citizens), 60% of South Koreans are concerned about Japan's military threat after North Korea, with even 40% indicating the possibility of military conflict between South Korea and Japan. Distrust of each other's political systems also plays a role among the citizens of both nations.

Among South Koreans, the most common perception of the nature of Japan's social and political system was "militarism" (56.9%), with an increase in responses viewing it as "hegemonism" (34.3%) compared to 26.8% last year. Only 22.2% of South Koreans associated Japan with "democracy." Conversely, among Japanese respondents, "nationalism" was the most common characteristic associated with South Korea's system (55.7%), followed by "statism" (38.6%). Only 14.0% of Japanese respondents associated South Korea with "democracy."

Perceptual Gap Over Historical Issues: South Korea Views Resolution as a Prerequisite for Improving Bilateral Relations; Japan is Pessimistic About Resolving Historical Issues

Regarding the relationship between Korea-Japan relations and historical issues, over half of South Koreans (52.5%) believe that "bilateral relations will not improve unless historical issues are resolved," significantly exceeding last year's 41.1%. Conversely, among Japanese respondents, the prevailing opinion was that "it is difficult to resolve historical issues even if bilateral relations improve," with 35.1% (34.7% last year) holding this view.

For instance, regarding the issue of the Japanese Prime Minister's visit to Yasukuni Shrine, 64.6% of South Koreans (66.5% last year) responded that "visits should not be made under any circumstances." In contrast, 41.3% of Japanese respondents (43.0% last year) found no issue with such visits, and an additional 29.1% (24.9% last year) stated it was acceptable if done in a "personal capacity," totaling 70.4%, meaning seven out of ten are favorable towards the Prime Minister's visit. This illustrates the perceptual gap between South Korea and Japan on historical issues.

Meanwhile, among historical issues to be resolved, "Japan's history textbook issue" was cited by 76.0% of South Koreans, a slight decrease from 81.9% last year but still the highest response. "Perception of Japanese military comfort women" was cited by 69.8% (71.6% last year), "Japan's perception of its invasion history" by 60.9% (70.6% last year), and "lack of reflection and apology from Japanese regarding past actions" by 59.6% (58.7% last year), continuing to be significant concerns. In this survey, "South Korea's anti-Japanese education and textbook content" was cited by 52.5% (56.1% last year), followed by "excessive anti-Japanese actions by South Koreans regarding historical issues with Japan" at 52.1% (54.4%).

Deterioration of Korea-Japan Relations: 80% of South Koreans and Over 60% of Japanese Evaluate Bilateral Relations Negatively

Deterioration of Korea-Japan Relations Leads to Emphasis on Relations with China and Negative Perceptions of Leaders of the Other Country

44.8% of South Koreans: "Korea-China relations are more important than Korea-Japan relations"; Japan: "Japan-China relations are more important" increased from 15.6% to 25.1%

Negative Image of the Other Country's Leader: 80.5% of South Koreans, 48.3% of Japanese

Only 2.6% of South Koreans (2.3% in 2014) and 5.8% of Japanese (5.0% in 2014) view the current Korea-Japan relations as 'good.' Conversely, the response 'bad' reached 78.3% among South Koreans (67.4% in 2013 → 77.8% in 2014). For Japanese respondents, it was 65.4% (55.1% in 2013 → 73.8% in 2014), showing a slight improvement compared to 2014, but still indicating that six out of ten perceive bilateral relations as bad.

The deterioration of Korea-Japan relations is leading to an increased emphasis on relations with China. Comparing Korea-Japan relations with China-Korea relations, 46.6% of South Koreans (47.0% last year) responded that "both Korea-China and Korea-Japan relations are important." However, the response "Korea-China relations are more important" also exceeded 40% at 44.8% (43.8% last year). In Japan's case, while "both are important" accounted for nearly half at 49.1% (47.0% last year), the view that "Japan-China relations are more important than Korea-Japan relations" increased by nearly 10 percentage points from 15.6% last year to 25.1%. In South Korea, public opinion favoring China as more friendly is approaching a majority, while in Japan, the proportion feeling friendly towards South Korea is decreasing.

Furthermore, the deterioration of Korea-Japan relations appears to be reinforcing negative perceptions of each other's leaders. Among South Koreans, 80.5% hold a "bad impression" (sum of responses indicating "very" or "generally" bad impression) of Japanese Prime Minister Abe, exceeding last year's 75.9%. Among Japanese respondents, 48.3% (45.3% last year) held a "bad impression" of President Park Geun-hye, nearing half. Only 5.2% (7.0% last year) held a "good impression."

Growing Concerns Over Deterioration of Korea-Japan Relations, Increased Awareness of the Importance of Bilateral Relations

87.4% of South Koreans and 65.3% of Japanese Consider Korea-Japan Relations Important

Seven Out of Ten Citizens in Both Countries Believe Further Deterioration of Public Sentiment is "Undesirable and Needs Improvement"

Despite an Unclear Outlook for Korea-Japan Relations, Expectations for Improvement are Spreading

The proportion of respondents who consider Korea-Japan relations "important" (including "generally important") reached nearly 90% among South Koreans at 87.4% (73.4% last year), and exceeded last year's 60.0% among Japanese at 65.3%. Meanwhile, only 9.1% of South Koreans (6.7% last year) and 15.7% of Japanese (9.0% last year) responded that Korea-Japan relations are "not important" (including "generally not important").

South Korean citizens responded that the current state of public sentiment between the two nations is "undesirable and concerning" (26.4%) or "a problem that needs to be improved" (40.8%), indicating that seven out of ten are concerned about the worsening public sentiment. In Japan, 29.0% responded that it is "undesirable and concerning," and 38.8% indicated that it is "a problem that needs to be improved."

However, the proportion of respondents who believe that the current situation in Korea-Japan relations will not change significantly has increased compared to last year. 45.9% of South Koreans (38.1% last year) and 41.4% of Japanese (32.9% last year) expect no major changes in current bilateral relations. Despite this, the proportion of respondents who believe relations will "improve" (including "generally improve") has returned to an increasing trend since last year, with 19.0% of South Koreans (13.8% last year) and 21.9% of Japanese (15.6% last year) holding this view. Furthermore, the response that relations will "worsen" (including "generally worsen") has significantly decreased compared to last year, with 28.4% of South Koreans (39.4% last year) and 12.1% of Japanese (22.7% last year), suggesting a cautious but growing expectation for improved relations.

Recognition of the Necessity of Summit Diplomacy, with Temperature Differences Between Citizens of Both Countries

80% of Korean and Japanese Citizens Believe Summit Diplomacy is Necessary

38.0% of Japanese Citizens: "Summit diplomacy should be held as soon as possible"; 69.9% of South Korean Citizens: "No need to rush"

Summit Agenda: South Koreans Prioritize "Historical and Territorial Issues"; Japanese Prefer "Comprehensive Agenda"

Regarding Korea-Japan summit diplomacy, over 80% of citizens in both countries believe it is necessary. Among them, 69.9% of South Koreans (72.4% last year) and 43.5% of Japanese (40.5% last year) responded, "It is necessary, but there is no need to rush." For agenda items to be discussed at the summit, "historical perception issues and the issue of Japanese military comfort women" was the most cited by South Koreans at 77.7% (76.3% last year), followed by "Dokdo issues" at 69.6% (70.3% last year), indicating a strong tendency to prioritize "historical perception" and "territorial" issues. In Japan, the response favoring "broad discussions for the improvement of bilateral relations" was the highest at 45.3%, a significant increase from 35.6% last year.

A Realistic Approach Prioritizing Economic Interests is Necessary

Japan's Economic Development Benefits South Korea: 46.6%; South Korea's Economic Development Benefits Japan: 49.5%

Regarding Korea-Japan economic relations, the view that "Japan's economic development has a positive impact on South Korea and is necessary" was held by 46.6% (43.3% last year), exceeding the support for the stance that "Japan's economic development is a threat to South Korea" (including "generally a threat") at 37.0% (37.5% last year). In Japan's case, 49.5% (42.8% last year), nearly half of the respondents, believe that "South Korea's economic development has a positive impact on Japan and is necessary" (including "generally necessary"), indicating an increasing perception that South Korea's economic development is also beneficial to Japan.

Need to Strengthen the Role of Objective and Fair Media and Expand Direct Exchange

Over 90% of citizens in both countries (94.6% in South Korea, 94.3% in Japan) cite 'their own country's news media' as the source of information about the other country, with a particular reliance on 'TV.' Regarding whether their domestic media provides "objective and fair reporting" on Korea-Japan relations, 51.7% of South Koreans (50.9% last year) responded "no," exceeding half for the second consecutive year. In Japan, the most common response was "cannot say either way / don't know" at 43.0% (48.7% last year), indicating a distance from the assertion of "objective and fair reporting."

26.0% of South Koreans (24.8% last year) and 26.0% of Japanese (22.5% last year) have visited the other country. 88.2% of South Koreans (87.2% last year) and 75.7% of Japanese (82.2% last year) responded that they "do not know any citizens of the other country (and never have)," demonstrating a significant lack of direct exchange between the citizens of both nations.

Overview of the 2015 '3rd Joint Korea-Japan Public Opinion Survey'

The East Asia Institute (EAI), a South Korean private think tank, and Media NPO, a Japanese public non-profit organization, conducted a mutual perception survey targeting citizens of both South Korea and Japan from April to May 2015. The purpose of this survey is to closely examine the current state and changes in mutual understanding between the citizens of both nations, with the aim of resolving perceptual differences and promoting mutual understanding.

The results of this survey will be presented and discussed at the Korea-Japan Private Dialogue (3rd Korea-Japan Future Dialogue: scheduled for June 20-21, 2015), established in May 2014 by both institutions with the goal of improving bilateral relations.

The South Korean survey was conducted from April 17th to May 8th using face-to-face interviews by enumerators targeting men and women aged 19 and above nationwide. A total of 1,010 valid responses were collected. The final educational attainment of respondents was as follows: elementary school or below: 7.8%, middle school: 7.1%, high school: 37.4%, some college/dropout (including junior college): 11.4%, university graduate: 35.0%, and graduate school: 1.0%.

The Japanese survey was conducted from April 9th to April 30th using the visit-and-collect method targeting men and women aged 18 and above nationwide (excluding high school students). A total of 1,000 valid responses were collected. The final educational attainment of respondents was as follows: elementary/middle school: 9.9%, high school: 45.5%, junior college/vocational high school: 18.3%, university graduate: 23.2%, and graduate school: 1.2%.

Separately from this public opinion survey, the East Asia Institute and Media NPO conducted a survey targeting intellectuals (有識者) in both countries from early April to late May. The South Korean survey was distributed online to EAI members and affiliates, with a total of 310 responses. In Japan, questionnaires were distributed to approximately 6,000 intellectuals who had participated in past discussions and surveys by Media NPO, and responses were received from 634 individuals.

Korea-Japan Future Dialogue

The 'Korea-Japan Future Dialogue' is a platform for private dialogue jointly established in May 2013 by the East Asia Institute and Media NPO in response to the growing need for such exchanges between South Korea and Japan. Bilateral relations are deteriorating due to strong distrust and a lack of mutual understanding between the citizens of both countries. With the aim of overcoming this situation through private dialogue, both institutions continuously investigate the trends in public perception and strive to contribute to fostering friendly relations between South Korea and Japan by creating a forum for open and candid discussions among civil society members from both nations, rotating between Seoul and Tokyo annually.

The East Asia Institute (EAI) and the NPO Media represent South Korea and Japan, respectively, as standing members of the 'Council of Councils' (COC), a global think tank council organized by the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). At the COC's founding general meeting in March 2012, the EAI was selected as a founding member representing South Korea, and the NPO Media was selected as a founding member representing Japan. In the process of participating in the COC, the NPO Media and the EAI agreed to create a new private dialogue forum, the 'Korea-Japan-U.S. Future Dialogue,' as a platform for dialogue to stabilize the unstable regional order in East Asia and improve deteriorating Korea-Japan relations. The third dialogue is scheduled to be held in Tokyo in 2015... (continued)