[EAI Opinion Memo] Public Sentiment Revealed in Post-Election Panel Survey

EAI Opinion Memo No. 12

Author

Lee Na-young, Director of EAI Center for Public Opinion Analysis; Korea University

The EAI-SBS-JoongAng Ilbo-Korea Research joint 2012 Presidential Election Panel Survey, conducted for three days following the election, is noteworthy for reflecting voters' thoughts and evaluations of the election results and process, and for offering significant implications regarding the major political parties' post-election trajectories.

First, regarding the question of the primary reason for the victory of Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye and the defeat of Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in, 50.1% responded that it was 'because the opposition's candidate unification did not proceed as expected.' 'Because the Democratic Party made mistakes' accounted for 18.2%, 'because candidate Park Geun-hye performed well' for 15.4%, and 'because candidate Moon Jae-in performed poorly' for 4.7%. Interestingly, 42.6% of candidate Park's supporters, as well as Moon's supporters, cited the failure of the opposition's candidate unification as the most important reason for Park's victory.

Factors of Presidential Election Victory and Defeat

These survey results could be interpreted to mean that many citizens believe the election outcome might have been different if the opposition had achieved its intended, so-called 'beautiful' candidate unification. However, it can also be interpreted as a sign that a majority of citizens evaluated the opposition's candidate unification process—which was the biggest issue of the presidential election but ended in candidate Ahn's withdrawal due to the failure to reconcile the interests of the Moon and Ahn camps—as a failure.

Important political implications can also be gleaned from public perceptions of the reasons for candidate Park Geun-hye's victory, beyond the failure of the opposition's candidate unification. While 'because the Democratic Party made mistakes' was 18.2%, 'because candidate Moon Jae-in made mistakes' was only 4.7%. This indicates that a considerable number of voters attribute the opposition party's defeat not to candidate Moon Jae-in, but to the Democratic Party itself.

Through these results, it can be inferred that a significant portion of the public expects the Democratic Party to deeply reflect on its election defeat and undergo a complete leadership change and internal reform. Conversely, a different assessment emerged regarding the reasons for candidate Park Geun-hye's victory. While 'because candidate Park Geun-hye performed well' was 15.4%, 'because the Saenuri Party performed well' was only 1.2%. This means that the election victory is attributed more to Park Geun-hye's personal qualifications and individual competitiveness than to the Saenuri Party. These results serve as a reminder that the Saenuri Party must not cease its earnest efforts for self-reflection and reform regarding its future direction, rather than being complacent or relieved by its election victory.

Messages from Voters That Should Not Be Ignored

The survey results on party support also appear to send a stern warning to existing political parties. The 37.7% of respondents who are unaffiliated with any political party, and particularly the 59.5% and 44.7% among those in their 20s and 30s respectively, reaffirm the significant distrust in established parties and the strong desire for new politics.

The situation for the Democratic Party appears even more serious. Not only is the Democratic Party more than 12% lower than the Saenuri Party in overall party support, but it is crucial to recognize the painful reality that it receives only about 20% support from the younger generation, who overwhelmingly supported candidate Moon Jae-in in this presidential election. These party support survey results clearly warn that not only the Democratic Party but also the Saenuri Party could be rejected by the public and become obsolete if they do not undertake bold reforms and renewal efforts.■

[Table 1] Reasons for Park Geun-hye's Victory (%)

[Table 2] Party Support (%)