[EAI Opinion Review] Changes in the Voting Intentions of Ahn Cheol-soo's Supporters After His Withdrawal

1. Changes in Public Opinion After Candidate Ahn's Withdrawal During the October Tripartite Primary Phase

(1) Based on a Multi-Candidate Scenario

[October] Park : Moon : Ahn : Other : Undecided = 38.2 : 24.7 : 27.6 : 0.6 : 9.0

[November] Park : Moon : Other Candidate : Undecided = 45.3 : 43.3 : 1.2 : 10.2

- Of the 359 individuals who supported Ahn Cheol-soo in October, 64.1% supported Moon, 15.0% supported Park, and 18.7% were undecided.

In the multi-candidate scenario, Park Geun-hye's support increased by 7.5 percentage points to 45.3% compared to the previous month, while Moon Jae-in's support rose by 18.6 percentage points to 43.3%, resulting in a 2 percentage point gap. The undecided group showed no significant change. The race shifted to a two-candidate contest following the withdrawal of Ahn Cheol-soo, who had received 24.7% support in the October survey.

Recent media reports on the flow of Ahn Cheol-soo's support have all relied on recall responses, where respondents are asked to remember which candidate they supported before the candidate's withdrawal. These reports have presented varying support retention rates for Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, ranging from 45% to 70%.

According to the results of this panel survey, 94.8% of the 497 individuals who supported Park Geun-hye in the 2nd presidential panel survey (October 11-14) expressed continued support for Park Geun-hye in the current survey (November 25-27). Of the 321 individuals who supported Moon Jae-in last month, 89.7% (288 individuals) maintained their support for Moon Jae-in. Meanwhile, among the 359 individuals who supported Ahn Cheol-soo, 64.1% shifted their support to Moon Jae-in, 15.0% to Park Geun-hye, 18.7% remained undecided, and 2.2% defected to other candidates, such as Lee Jung-hee.

[Table 1] Flow of Support in a Multi-Candidate Scenario (%), 2nd Survey (Oct 11-14) → 3rd Survey (Nov 25-27)

(2) Based on Hypothetical Two-Candidate Race and Final Election Support

[October] Park : Moon : Undecided = 46.6 : 49.8 : 3.6, Park : Ahn : Undecided = 44.5 : 51.3% : 3.6%

[November] Park : Moon : Other Candidate : Undecided = 45.3 : 43.3 : 1.2 : 10.2

Given that the support for the two leading candidates was bound to increase after Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal, it is appropriate to compare the current situation with the hypothetical two-candidate race prior to Ahn's withdrawal to track changes in the competitiveness between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in. Although minor candidates such as Lee Jung-hee and Kang Ji-won exist, their support rates are below 1%, making it effectively a two-candidate race.

In the hypothetical two-candidate race in October between Park Geun-hye and a unified candidate Moon Jae-in, Moon Jae-in led within the margin of error at 46.6% versus 49.8%. However, Park Geun-hye's support dropped by 1.4 percentage points from 46.6% (607 individuals) to 45.2% (589 individuals), while Moon Jae-in's support fell by 6.5 percentage points from 49.8% (648 individuals) to 43.3% (564 individuals), resulting in a reversal of rankings. It is noteworthy that within the sample group, there has been an actual shift in support when analyzing the changes among the same respondents. The initial plan by the opposition to widen the gap between Moon Jae-in and Park Geun-hye has not been realized. However, considering the entire electorate, the race is still within the margin of error, indicating a close contest following Ahn's withdrawal.

Looking at the hypothetical two-candidate race from a month ago, among Park Geun-hye's 607 supporters, 88.1% (535 individuals) maintained their support. Of these, 5.8% shifted to Moon, 5.9% became undecided, and only 0.2% moved to other candidates. Meanwhile, among Moon Jae-in's 648 supporters in the October two-candidate race, 80.5% (521 individuals) maintained their support. However, 6.2% shifted to Park, and 11.4% became undecided. The proportion of Moon's supporters who became undecided (11.4%) is higher than that of Park's supporters who became undecided (5.9%). Overall, 19.6% of Moon's supporters defected.

Furthermore, in the hypothetical Park Geun-hye versus Ahn Cheol-soo two-candidate race in the October survey, 85.5% of Park Geun-hye's supporters expressed continued support for Park in the current survey, with 9.1% shifting to Moon Jae-in. However, among the 668 respondents (51.3%) who indicated they would vote for the unified candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, 73.5% shifted their support to Moon Jae-in, while 11.2% moved to Park Geun-hye, and 13.6% became undecided. The high proportion of Ahn's supporters in the 2nd hypothetical race who shifted to Moon Jae-in in the 3rd final election scenario suggests that these respondents were already supporting Moon Jae-in in the multi-candidate scenario during the 2nd survey.

[Table 2] Flow of Support from Hypothetical Park:Moon Race in October to Actual Election Scenario in November (wt 5th)

[Table 3] Flow of Support from Hypothetical Park:Ahn Race in October to Actual Election Scenario in November (wt 5th)

2. Types of Ahn Cheol-soo Supporter Defections: Who Defected and Why

Who maintained support for candidate Moon, and who defected? In the second multi-candidate debate, among 360 supporters of candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, respondents who expressed support for candidate Moon Jae-in in the third round of the main contest were classified as 'Moon Support Maintainers,' those who expressed support for candidate Park Geun-hye were classified as 'Park Defectors,' and respondents who supported other candidates or were undecided (had no preferred candidate) were classified as 'Other Undecided.' We will examine the sociopolitical backgrounds of these groups.

(1) Who Defected? Socio-Political Backgrounds

Ahn Supporter Transition Types: 1. Ahn→Moon Maintainers, 2. Ahn→Park Defectors, 3. Ahn→Other/Undecided Defectors

[By Age Group] 20s-30s: 64.8% maintained, 40s: 69.0% maintained, 50s-60s: 56.3% maintained, 23.8% supported Park

[By Region] Seoul: 59.5%, Gyeongin: 58.8%, Daegu-Gyeongbuk: 54.5%, Honam: 70.7%, Busan-Gyeongnam (PK): 79.5%

Analyzing by age group, Moon supporters maintained their support at 64.8% among those in their 20s and 30s, and the highest at 69.0% among those in their 40s. In contrast, this figure was only 56.3% among those in their 50s and 60s. While approximately 20% defected to the undecided category across all age groups, Park defectors were 13.3% among those in their 20s-30s and 10.7% among those in their 40s. Among those in their 50s and 60s, 23.8% defected to Park, indicating that age is a factor in Ahn's supporters' defections.

Regionally, Moon supporters maintained their support at 79.5% in the Busan-Gyeongnam region, the highest rate, followed by Chungcheong at 71.4% and Honam at 70.7%, which were about 8-9 percentage points lower than the PK region. In contrast, only 59.5% in Seoul, 58.8% in the Gyeonggi-Incheon region, and 54.5% in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region maintained support for Moon. Among defectors, the proportion of Park defectors was higher in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Busan-Ulsan regions, while in the Seoul metropolitan area, more defectors moved to the undecided category than to Park.

Examining the types of voting intention changes among Ahn's supporters by age and region, the largest defections occurred in regions with strong Park Geun-hye support, such as the 50s-60s age group and the Yeongnam region. Defections followed in demographics with relatively strong Ahn Cheol-soo support, like the Seoul metropolitan area and the 20s-30s age group. The proportion of support shifting to Moon Jae-in was stronger in regions where Moon had a favorable showing, such as among the 40s age group and the PK region. In demographics with strong Park Geun-hye support, the 'Park defector' type was prevalent, while in demographics with strong Ahn Cheol-soo support, a significant proportion moved to the undecided category. However, caution is advised when interpreting the absolute figures of regional defection types due to the small sample sizes.

[Table 4] Defection Types Among Ahn Supporters by Age Group (%)

[Table 5] Defection Types Among Ahn Supporters by Region (%)

Changes in Ahn Supporters' Voting Intentions (Moon Jae-in Support Retention Rate): Lower Retention Among Saenuri Supporters/Conservatives and Unaffiliated Voters

[Party Support] Saenuri: 19.2%, Democratic: 89.9%, Unaffiliated: 53.8% supported Moon, 31.7% undecided

[By Ideology] Progressive: 73.2%, Moderate: 65.5%, Conservative: Only 48.1% maintained Moon support

Analyzing defection types based on political variables, among supporters of Ahn Cheol-soo who also supported the Saenuri Party, only 19.2% shifted to Moon Jae-in, while 76.9% returned to supporting Park Geun-hye. Among Ahn Cheol-soo supporters who backed the Democratic Party, 89.9% moved to Moon Jae-in, indicating that party affiliation remains a key factor influencing voting intentions after Ahn's withdrawal. However, among unaffiliated voters who supported Ahn Cheol-soo, only about half, 53.8%, shifted to Moon Jae-in, with the remaining 31.7% moving to the undecided category.

Ideologically, 73.2% of progressive Ahn Cheol-soo supporters shifted to Moon Jae-in in this survey, and 65.5% of moderate Ahn Cheol-soo supporters maintained their support for Moon Jae-in. In contrast, only 48.1% of conservative Ahn Cheol-soo supporters expressed support for Moon Jae-in. While defectors among progressive and moderate groups primarily moved to the undecided category, a larger proportion of conservative Ahn Cheol-soo defectors returned to supporting Park Geun-hye than moved to the undecided category. This again highlights that existing political orientations exert a strong influence on determining preferred candidates after Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal.

[Table 6] Defection Types by Party Support (%)

[Table 7] Defection Types by Ideological Orientation (%)

[Ahn Supporters' October Preference] In the October survey, in a hypothetical Park vs. Moon race, 20.8% supported Park, and 75.3% supported Moon.

- Moon Support Maintainers: 89.6% had already expressed intent to support Moon Jae-in a month prior.

- Park Defectors: 75.9% had expressed intent to support Park in a Park vs. Moon race in the October survey.

- Other/Undecided Defectors: In the October survey, 18.4% supported Park, and 72.4% intended to support Moon.

Of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters from a month ago, 75.3% indicated they would support Moon in the hypothetical Park vs. Moon two-candidate race in the October survey. Moon support maintainers showed that 89.6% had already expressed their intention to support Moon Jae-in if he became the unified candidate. Conversely, among those who defected to Park Geun-hye, 75.9% had stated they would support Park in a one-on-one race, suggesting that the shift to Park Geun-hye in the current survey was somewhat anticipated. The issue lies with the group that defected to the 'other/undecided' category. A month ago, 72.4% of this group indicated they would support Moon, yet in the current survey, they have moved to support other candidates or become undecided. Currently, Moon Jae-in faces the greatest difficulty in absorbing Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters from this 'other/undecided' defecting group.

[Table 8] Preference in October Park vs. Moon Hypothetical Race by Ahn Supporter Defection Type

(2) Why Did They Defect? Failure of a "Beautiful" Unification and Economic Stagnation as Factors for Undecided Defections

Ahn Supporters' Evaluation of Unification: 65.0% "Negative" (358 individuals)

- Ahn→Moon Maintainers: 51.7% "Negative," 47.0% "Positive"

- Ahn→Park Defectors: 92.5% "Negative" (50/54 individuals), Ahn→Other/Undecided Defectors: 85.5% "Negative" (65/75 individuals)

A total of 65.0% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters evaluated the unification process, which directly led to Ahn's withdrawal, negatively. Notably, 85.5% of defectors to the undecided category expressed a negative view of the unification, nearly as high as the 92.5% negative evaluation among Park defectors. Even among those who maintained support for Moon, 51.7% responded negatively to the unification process, while 47.0% responded positively. This suggests that the failure of the unification process to be perceived as "beautiful" was a primary reason for defections.

[Table 9] Evaluation of Candidate Unification by Ahn Supporter Defection Type (%)

Candidate/Party Favorability (0=Strongly Dislike, 5=Neutral, 10=Strongly Like): Park Candidate as a Source of Instability

* For Ahn→Moon support maintainers, personal favorability (6.9 points) played a greater role than party favorability (5.8 points).

* For Ahn→Park defectors, favorability towards Park Geun-hye and the Saenuri Party was higher, indicating a political leaning towards the Saenuri Party.

* For Ahn→Other defectors: Both Park/Saenuri and Moon/Democratic Party favorability were low (4.5).

Current favorability scores for all candidates and parties show Park Geun-hye at 5.4 points and the Saenuri Party at 4.8 points, while Moon Jae-in scores 5.6 points and the Democratic United Party scores 5.0 points. Although Park Geun-hye's support rating appears relatively high after the unification, she and the Saenuri Party score lower than Moon Jae-in and the Democratic United Party, respectively.

Specifically, among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, favorability towards the Saenuri Party is 3.1 points and towards the Democratic United Party is 5.2 points, indicating strong dislike for the Saenuri Party. Favorability towards Park Geun-hye is 3.6 points, and towards Moon Jae-in is 5.9 points. Moon support maintainers, in particular, show high favorability towards Moon Jae-in (6.9 points) and the Democratic Party (5.8 points). However, among Ahn's supporters who defected to Park, favorability towards Park Geun-hye is 6.2 points and towards the Saenuri Party is 5.5 points, showing pro-Park and pro-Saenuri sentiments. Conversely, favorability towards Moon Jae-in is 4.2 points and towards the Democratic Party is 4.4 points, below the neutral mark, indicating a relatively cool attitude towards Moon Jae-in and the Democratic Party.

The group of Ahn Cheol-soo supporters who defected to the undecided category, which has garnered significant attention, shows a considerable aversion to Park Geun-hye (3.5 points) and the Saenuri Party (3.0 points). While their favorability towards Moon Jae-in and the Democratic Party is relatively higher than towards Park/Saenuri, it remains below the neutral 5-point mark, confirming a negative sentiment. Although their defection is driven by negative feelings towards Moon Jae-in/Democratic Party, given their relatively higher favorability scores for Moon/Democratic Party compared to Saenuri Party and Park Geun-hye, they are more likely to choose to support Moon/Democratic Party or abstain from voting rather than shift to supporting Park Geun-hye.

[Figure 1] Candidate/Party Favorability Scores by Ahn Cheol-soo Defection Type

Those with Negative Economic Perceptions Have Higher Tendency to Become Undecided Ahn Supporters; Capturing the Economy Will Capture These Undecided Ahn Supporters

- Among Ahn→Moon maintainers, 38.3% stated "household economy has worsened," and 73.2% stated "national economy has worsened."

- 39.2% of the Ahn-to-Park defector group responded "household economy worsened," and 69.2% responded "national economy worsened."

- 52.8% of the Ahn-to-Other/Undecided group responded "household economy worsened," and 68.1% responded "national economy worsened."

Meanwhile, comparing perceptions of the national and household economies by type of defection from Ahn Cheol-soo's support base, perceptions of the national economy worsened regardless of the defection type, with approximately 70% indicating a worsening, showing little difference. However, significant differences were observed in perceptions of the household economic situation. For Moon supporters who maintained their support and Park supporters who maintained their support, the responses indicating a worsening household economy were similar at 38.3% and 39.2%, respectively, and relatively low. In contrast, among defectors who moved to the undecided/other category from Ahn Cheol-soo's support base, a substantial 52.8% (12.5% very worsened, 40.3% generally worsened) responded that their perceived household economic situation had worsened. If a negative assessment of the household economic situation contributed to their becoming undecided voters, then conversely, presenting tangible measures for the actual household economic situation could be a crucial lever for regaining the support of these defected undecided voters.

[Table 10] Evaluation of Household Economy by Ahn Cheol-soo Support Group Defection Type (%)

[Table 11] Evaluation of National Economy by Ahn Cheol-soo Support Group Defection Type (%)

3. The Direction of Ahn Cheol-soo Supporters' Votes

(1) Variable: Expectation of Regime Change

[Regime Change Theory] Agreement with Regime Change Theory High at 73.6%

Of the 230 Ahn-to-Moon maintainers, 199 (86.6%) agreed.

Of the 53 Ahn-to-Park defectors, 21 (39.6%) agreed.

Of the 75 Ahn-to-Undecided/Other defectors, 44 (57.9%) agreed.

The high agreement with the theory of regime change among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters indicates that they could potentially become a future support base for the opposition rather than the ruling party. While 56.0% of all voters agreed with the statement, "To achieve regime change in this election, we should support a unified opposition candidate," 73.6% of Ahn Cheol-soo's 359 supporters agreed. Specifically, 86.6% of the 230 Moon maintainers agreed, whereas only 39.6% of defectors to Park Geun-hye agreed. Among the 75 individuals who defected to the undecided/other category, 57.9% agreed with the theory of regime change and supporting a unified candidate, suggesting a considerable possibility of them becoming Moon Jae-in's support base in the future.

[Table 12] Attitude Toward Regime Change Theory by Ahn Cheol-soo Support Defection Type (%)

[Coexistence of Regime Punishment Theory and Opposition Party Scrutiny Theory] Simultaneous Punishment of Ruling and Opposition Parties vs. Pure Regime Punishment Theory: 38.7% vs. 37.5%

- Ahn-to-Other/Undecided group: Simultaneous Punishment Theory 37.8% vs. Regime Punishment Theory 31.1%, Opposition Party Punishment Theory 17.6%

Although there is significant agreement with the regime punishment theory, the theory of simultaneously punishing both the ruling and opposition parties, which suggests not to vote for irresponsible opposition parties, also garnered high support in the March survey. While 37.5% of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters are pure regime punishment proponents (those who do not agree with the ruling party's theory of scrutinizing the opposition party), 38.7% hold the position that both the ruling and opposition parties should be scrutinized. Notably, among those who defected to the undecided/other category, 37.8% agreed with simultaneously punishing the regime and the opposition party, while 31.1% agreed with the pure regime punishment theory. This is below the average, whereas those who agreed with the theory of not voting for irresponsible opposition parties were 17.8%, higher than the overall average. Therefore, it is evident that it will not be easy for the Moon Jae-in camp to absorb all of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, even if they agree with the regime punishment theory.

[Table 13] Cross-Attitude Types of Regime Punishment Theory vs. Opposition Party Scrutiny Theory by Ahn Cheol-soo Support Defection Type (%)

(2) Lukewarm Attitude Toward Moon Jae-in/Democratic Party

[Attitude Toward Candidate Moon] Considering individuals, who is presidential material? Moon Jae-in 51.7%, Park 17.0%, None 27.1%

Ahn-to-Moon maintainers: 74.7% (171/229), Park 5.2%, None 16.6%

Ahn-to-Park defectors: 72.2% (39/54) chose Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in 1.9%, None 20.4%

Ahn-to-Undecided/Other: 13.3% (10/75) chose Park, 17.7% (13) Moon, 64.0% found no suitable candidate.

Despite strong agreement with the theory of regime change, their support does not translate to Moon Jae-in's candidacy, likely due to a lukewarm evaluation of him. Among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, when asked who is presidential material based solely on individual candidates, without considering party affiliation, only about half, 51.7%, chose Moon Jae-in. Those who selected Park Geun-hye accounted for 17.0%, and 27.1% responded that there was no suitable candidate.

While 74.7% of the Moon maintainers chose Moon Jae-in, among those who defected to Park Geun-hye, 72.2% conversely chose Park Geun-hye. However, among those who defected to the undecided/other category, only 13.3% chose Park Geun-hye and 17.7% chose Moon Jae-in, with a cynical 64.0% responding that there was no suitable candidate. To translate the agreement with the regime change theory into actual support for the opposition candidate, strengthening Moon Jae-in's leadership and improving his evaluation among the current undecided/other respondents presents a significant challenge.

[Support for Candidate Moon] Ahn Supporters: Should actively help Moon Jae-in 63.4%, Should continue in politics 77.2%

Ahn-to-Moon maintainers: Should actively help Candidate Moon 83.4% (191/230)

Ahn-to-Park defectors: 13.2% (8/53)

Ahn-to-Undecided/Other: 38.1% (29/75) should actively help Moon, 61.9% do not agree with supporting Moon.

Overall, 77.2% of Ahn Cheol-soo's 359 supporters believe he should continue in politics. In this presidential election, 63.4% believed he should actively support Moon Jae-in. This is a highly encouraging response for the Moon Jae-in camp. However, the situation is not entirely optimistic when examined by defection type. While 83.4% of Moon maintainers believe Ahn Cheol-soo should actively support Moon Jae-in, only 13.2% of Park defectors hold this view. Notably, among those who defected to the undecided/other category, only 38.1% believe Ahn Cheol-soo should actively support Moon Jae-in, while 61.9% disagreed with Ahn Cheol-soo supporting Moon.

[Table 14] Presidential Suitability Considering Only Individual Factors (%)

[Table 15] Attitude Toward Candidate Ahn's Support for Candidate Moon (%)

(3) Weakening of Voting Motivation

[Active Voting Intention Group] 71.5% of Ahn supporters are in the active voting intention group.

Of the 230 Ahn-to-Moon maintainers, 188 (81.7%). Of the 53 Ahn-to-Park defectors, 40 (75.5%).

Only 28 out of 75 Ahn supporters who defected to the undecided/other category (37.3%) responded, "I will definitely vote."

The overall active voting intention among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters was 71.5%. Among them, 81.7% of the Moon maintainers responded that they would definitely vote, and although slightly lower, 75.5% of those who defected to Park Geun-hye also expressed an active intention to vote. However, among Ahn supporters who defected to the undecided/other category, the response of "definitely vote" was low at 37.3%.

Looking at their active voting intention in the October survey, 84.4% of Moon maintainers and 83.0% of Park defectors had a very high intention to vote. In contrast, among those who defected to the undecided/other category, 61.3% had expressed an intention to definitely vote in the October survey. The active voting intention group decreased by approximately 24.0 percentage points in one month. This suggests that the negative perception of the unification process has led to undecided voters becoming more undecided and a weakening of active voting intention.

[Table 16] Voting Intention by Ahn Cheol-soo Support Defection Type (%)

[Figure 2] Change in Active Voting Intention Group by Ahn Cheol-soo Support Defection Type (%)