[EAI Opinion Memo] The Balancing Act of Generational Voting: The Choice of the 40s and the Divergent Dreams of the 20s and 30s

EAI Opinion Memo No.7

Author

Jeong Han-ul, Deputy Director, EAI Center for Public Opinion Research

The 40s Emerge as the Balancing Force Between Parties

A decade ago, in the 2002 presidential election where Roh Moo-hyun and Lee Hoi-chang were the main contenders, the 20s and 30s constituted 48.3% of the total electorate, nearly half, while the 50s and 60s accounted for only 29.3%. Despite the relatively lower voter turnout among the 20s and 30s, Roh Moo-hyun's victory was largely due to their significant demographic size. However, ten years later, the 20s and 30s now represent 38.5%, and the 50s and 60s represent 39.6%, marking a substantial increase in the proportion of the 50s and 60s. The surge in the 50s and 60s, who have a high voter turnout, acts as a favorable factor for candidate Park Geun-hye, who enjoys overwhelming support from this demographic.

However, in hypothetical one-on-one matchups against presidential candidates, Park Geun-hye maintains a narrow lead of around 5 percentage points (p) against opposition candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in. This outcome is attributed to the support the 40s have provided to candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in. The 40s are expected to play a crucial role as the balancing force between parties and as the decisive factor in determining the election's outcome. For the Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo matchup, 58.8% of the 40s express hope for political change, believing that politics will improve if the incumbent government is replaced. Support for candidate unification also stands at 58.5%.

However, the 40s exhibit a dual nature and a sense of balance, reflecting both the 'desire for change' of the 20s and 30s and the 'desire for stability' of the 50s and 60s. Regarding the values of 'distribution vs. growth,' 62.1% of the 20s and 58.0% of the 30s believe distribution is important, while 57.8% of the 50s and 63.6% of the 60s consider growth to be important. In the 'growth vs. distribution' debate, the 40s are balanced, with 47.2% prioritizing growth and 52.2% prioritizing distribution. Similarly, concerning the values of 'change and stability,' 55.5% of the 20s and 51.6% of the 30s believe 'change' is more important, whereas 62.4% of the 50s and 80.8% of the 60s believe stability is more important. Among the 40s, 47.8% consider change important, and 51.7% consider stability important, indicating a close balance.

Unified Candidate: Moon Jae-in vs. Independent is Irrelevant

Due to their tendency to balance the desire for change with a preference for stability, the 40s favor candidate Moon Jae-in, who is perceived as relatively more stable than candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. Among the 20s, Ahn Cheol-soo leads Moon Jae-in 45.0% to 36.9%, and among the 30s, the figures are nearly tied at 41.5% for Ahn Cheol-soo and 41.9% for Moon Jae-in. In the 40s demographic, 36.7% support Ahn Cheol-soo, while 50.4% support Moon Jae-in. The 50s and 60s show low support for candidate unification itself.

However, this does not indicate an outright pro-Democratic Party or pro-Moon Jae-in inclination. The proportion agreeing with the assertion by Moon Jae-in's camp that 'an independent candidate should not become president' is 32.7%, while the proportion agreeing with the assertion by Ahn Cheol-soo's camp that 'it is acceptable for an independent candidate to become president' is higher at 61.3%. Party support also shows a tendency for both the Saenuri Party and the Democratic Party's approval ratings to decline concurrently.

Reasons Why Winning Over the 40s is Challenging

What further complicates winning over the 40s is that their political inclinations are not homogenous. Even within the 40s demographic, there are differences between men and women. For instance, in a multi-candidate race, support for candidate Park Geun-hye among men in their 40s was 28.7% for Park Geun-hye, 37.4% for Moon Jae-in, and 25.1% for Ahn Cheol-soo. Among women in their 40s, 30.5% supported Park Geun-hye, 24.4% supported Moon Jae-in, and 30.5% supported Ahn Cheol-soo. This could be a result of Moon Jae-in's recent security-focused campaign and strategy emphasizing 'masculinity' proving effective with men, while potentially backfiring with women.

Significant differences in candidate preference are also observed between the early and late 40s. In a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, the early 40s (ages 40-44) show a strong anti-Park sentiment, with Park Geun-hye vs. Moon Jae-in at 35.6% vs. 60.2%, and Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo at 33.9% vs. 61.4%. The late 40s (ages 45-49) show relatively higher support for candidate Park Geun-hye, with Park Geun-hye vs. Moon Jae-in at 41.8% vs. 52.7%, and Park Geun-hye vs. Ahn Cheol-soo at 42.5% vs. 52.7%.

Winning over the 40s, which will determine the direction of the 2012 presidential election, is expected to be challenging. They do not view 'change and stability' as mutually exclusive options but as values that can coexist. Delays in change or feelings of insecurity become the primary reasons for the alienation of the 40s' public sentiment. ■

[Table 1] Political Characteristics of the 40s (1,527 individuals)

[Figure 1] Support Rate Differences Between Men and Women in their 40s in a Multi-Candidate Race (%)

Note: Minor candidates are not listed.

[Figure 2] Support Rate Differences Between Early and Late 40s in a 1:1 Hypothetical Matchup (%)