[EAI Opinion Review] Analysis of the Characteristics of Uncertainty in the 2012 Presidential Election: Weakening of the Adversarial Dichotomy and Changes in the Ruling Party's Strategy

Predicting the 2012 Presidential Election Based on Electoral Variables

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1. Characteristics of Presidential Elections Since Democratization: Uncertainty and Dynamism

The election is just about 90 days away. Approximately 90 days prior to the 14th presidential election in 1992, both the Democratic Liberal Party and the Democratic Party had already confirmed their candidates, Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung, in May. In the 15th presidential election of 1997, the New Korea Party confirmed Lee Hoi-chang as its candidate in July, and the National Congress for New Politics confirmed Kim Dae-jung in May, by which time the presidential race was already in full swing. Presidential elections prior to the 2000s tended to be quite predictable.

However, the 16th presidential election in 2002 marked a turning point where uncertainty, as seen today, began to emerge in earnest. For the 16th presidential election, Roh Moo-hyun was confirmed as the Democratic Party candidate on April 27, and Lee Hoi-chang was confirmed as the Grand National Party candidate on May 10. Nevertheless, the 2002 election was the most dynamic in history. As shown in [Figure 1], following the Democratic Party's defeat in the local elections held in June of the same year, calls for Roh Moo-hyun's resignation emerged, and even discussions about replacing the candidate arose. The fervor of the World Cup's success propelled Chung Mong-joon to a rapid rise. Roh Moo-hyun's approval rating, which had hovered around 40-50% in April-May, subsequently fell to the 20% range, and Chung Mong-joon's approval rating surpassed Roh Moo-hyun's in August-September. Consequently, Roh Moo-hyun made a decisive move for candidate unification, successfully merging with Chung Mong-joon through a public poll on November 25, ultimately becoming the winner.

The presidential election five years ago, in 2007, was characterized by significant uncertainty for different reasons. As confirmed in [Figure 2], considering the point when Lee Myung-bak was confirmed as the Grand National Party's presidential candidate on August 20 after defeating Park Geun-hye in the primary, the combined approval ratings of Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye were around 60-70%. August 20 can be considered the de facto election day for the 17th presidential election. However, the former ruling camp experienced continuous internal divisions, with the Millennium Democratic Party splitting to form the Uri Party, and then the Grand National Party recruiting Sohn Hak-kyu, a primary candidate from the opposition party at the time, due to a lack of competitive candidates. Furthermore, Moon Kook-hyun, CEO of Yuhan-Kimberly, who ran on an anti-Grand National Party and anti-establishment sentiment, emerged, delaying the selection of the Millennium Democratic Party's presidential candidate until October 15 amidst protracted discussions on candidate unification. Although the balance of power had already tipped, it was not an election characterized by stability.

Observing past elections since democratization, it is evident that the sources of uncertainty and instability during election periods have primarily originated from within the camp opposing the Grand National Party. For the Grand National Party, since the merger of its predecessor, the Democratic Liberal Party, its presidential candidates have been the central figures of the so-called 'trend theory.' In contrast, the Democratic Party camp has only been able to achieve victory through political engineering of alliances and the combination of dramatic events while in a consistently disadvantaged position. Fundamentally, while the Grand National Party's strategy is to maintain a stable lead, the opposition's secret to victory has been to channel the anxiety arising from uncertainty into positive energy for dynamic change.

[Figure 1] Approval Rating Fluctuations During the 16th Presidential Election Period (2002)

[Figure 2] Approval Rating Fluctuations During the 17th Presidential Election Period (2007)

2. Structural Factors of Presidential Election Uncertainty Since Democratization: An Imbalanced Ruling and Opposition Party Confrontation Structure

Why, then, do the ruling party's strategy consistently involve maintaining stability, while the opposition party's presidential election strategy relies on drama born from uncertainty? A structural factor can be attributed to the party structure formed through the 'founding election' that concluded the transition to a new party system after democratization and determined the party competition structure repeated for a considerable period in subsequent elections. This structure was influenced by the regionally based party system of Yeongnam and Honam, which was imbalanced. Among the four parties in the 1987 presidential election and the 1988 general election – the Democratic Justice Party, based in Daegu-Gyeongbuk during the Park Chung-hee regime; the Reunification Democratic Party, based in Busan-Gyeongnam; the Republican Party, based in Chungcheong; and the Party for Peace and Democracy, based in Honam – the three parties excluding the Party for Peace and Democracy merged in 1990 through the three-party merger, solidifying a regional structure of a large ruling party based outside Honam and a minority opposition party based in Honam.

Specifically, the imbalance in population proportion between Yeongnam and Honam, which has formed a confrontational regional structure, inherently creates a situation where a party based in Yeongnam, with 2.5 times the population of Honam, has an advantage from the outset in elections decided by majority vote. Consequently, for the ruling party, leveraging this advantage to maintain a regional coalition structure becomes a strategy for leading the election safely. Conversely, the opposition party is compelled to adopt a strategy of disruption to create cracks in this imbalanced regional coalition structure. The alliance strategies, such as Kim Dae-jung's DJP alliance and Roh Moo-hyun's candidate unification with Chung Mong-joon, were unavoidable choices. The fact that both Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun narrowly won the presidency by only tens of thousands of votes, even after successfully forming alliances with disparate philosophies and experiences, paradoxically demonstrates how disadvantageous the existing party structure is to the current opposition party.

This asymmetrical structure presents both opportunities and challenges for both the ruling and opposition parties. The Grand National Party, having an advantageous position from the start and the possibility of independent rule, benefits from maintaining and institutionalizing the party's identity. With ample room, party identity management is stable. The demand for a 100% public participation primary system from non-Park Geun-hye factions during the 2012 presidential candidate selection process, although criticized at the time as Park Geun-hye's autocratic politics, can be evaluated as a desirable decision from the perspective of party institutionalization, considering the potential harms that can arise when the Democratic Party's primary rules fluctuate according to necessity. This was likely influenced by Park Geun-hye's leadership style, but the author believes the structural advantage in the ruling-opposition confrontation also played a role. However, this positional advantage can also be detrimental. It is difficult to break free from the framework of a stability-seeking strategy that prioritizes complacency and resists change. Consequently, it is also true that the conservative vested interests have been reinforced, leading to self-inflicted crises.

Conversely, the Democratic Party must always consider alliances with external forces for electoral victory, making it difficult to strengthen its own philosophy, values, and identity. Furthermore, as it must pursue alliances with changing partners in changing environments for each election, it cannot institutionalize even the candidate nomination system. The system degenerates into a tool for nomination success. The public participation primary, introduced with the 'Roh Moo-hyun wave' in 2002, was nullified in the 2006 local elections as a strategic nomination to recruit candidate Kang Kum-sil, and later replaced by a 100% opinion poll method for the alliance with the Unified Progressive Party. In an organization where rules are applied flexibly, strategic talent development is impossible, and a culture of accepting results is difficult to expect. This can be seen as a major reason why the noise surrounding mobile voting in the recent Democratic Party presidential primary could not be resolved institutionally, and why the Democratic Party has been ridiculed as an 'infertile party' for failing to produce capable and well-prepared candidates in several recent national elections.

3. Uncertainty in the 2012 Presidential Election: The Ruling Party's Strategy of Change and the Weakening of the Adversarial Dichotomy

The 2012 presidential election is as uncertain as previous elections. However, the structural factors observed in past elections are still at play. Despite criticism of the current government reaching 60% in the 2012 presidential election, candidate Park Geun-hye remains at the forefront (Figure 3). However, unlike the 2007 election where the opposition was overwhelmingly defeated, the combined support for Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in at least surpasses that of Park Geun-hye. While the 2007 election was decided 90 days prior, the 2012 election is likely to be a closely contested race until the very end, similar to 2002, with a balanced power structure between the ruling and opposition parties. This suggests that this election will be held under a greater degree of uncertainty than any other. The crucial point to watch is that while uncertainty can manifest positively as dynamism, it can become a source of anxiety if it leads to negative outcomes. However, what distinguishes the 2012 election from 2002 is that the structure of stability for the ruling party and dynamic change for the opposition is breaking down, with uncertainty and the potential for dynamic change originating from both camps.

[Figure 3] Approval Rating Fluctuations During the 18th Presidential Election Period (2012): After the Emergence of the 'Ahn Wind'

The Potential for Change and Dilemma within the Park Geun-hye Camp

The Saenuri Party is still trying to maintain the lead of candidate Park Geun-hye, who is backed by the 'trend theory,' and considers the unification between Ahn Cheol-soo and the Democratic Party candidate, who are competing closely with Park Geun-hye, as the decisive factor. However, Park Geun-hye's actions since the confirmation of her candidacy suggest she is aware that complacency based on the trend theory, as seen in past presidential elections, can be detrimental.

When Park Geun-hye took over as the interim leader of the Saenuri Party in January, she not only changed the party name but also preemptively adopted pro-opposition agendas such as economic democratization, moving away from the growth discourse of 'Julpuse' (cut taxes, simplify regulations, deregulate) from the past. Along with a tailored welfare line, this was a message of her own transformation to align with voters' changing preferences. Furthermore, at the party convention on August 20, she attempted unconventional national unity gestures, including visits to Bongha Village and the Jeon Tae-il statue. Despite strong criticism from the opposition regarding the sincerity of her actions, public opinion evaluated them positively at 56%, with 62.7% urging her to continue these unity efforts. It appears that Park Geun-hye's transformation is being perceived as dynamic change rather than a cause for anxiety. Even nearly half of the Democratic Party's supporters believe it is desirable for her to continue her unity efforts. If she consistently strives to embrace not only centrist voters but also those with opposing views, her limitations in expanding her support base may cease to be an issue.

However, recent incidents, such as the threat scandal involving spokesperson Jeong Jong-gil and her adherence to her past stance on historical issues, have tarnished the message of change that candidate Park Geun-hye had conveyed. While acknowledging that elections are a battlefield of ruthless political survival, her focus on 'smearing the opposing candidate' under the guise of 'verification' while advocating for 'national unity' is indistinguishable from the past trend theorists of the Grand National Party who focused on complacency. This inconsistency will erode the advantage of 'predictability' that candidate Park Geun-hye had demonstrated. It is worth recalling that President Lee Myung-bak's emphasis on 'a fair society and a pragmatic centrist line' throughout his term, while initially boosting approval ratings, ultimately failed to demonstrate consistent support, thereby reinforcing distrust in the Lee Myung-bak administration.

The Opposition's Dilemma and Potential for Change: Breaking Free from the Adversarial Dichotomy is the Core of the Ahn Cheol-soo Phenomenon

Conversely, the opposition is attempting to replicate the scenario of the 2002 election, where Roh Moo-hyun, who had been trailing Lee Hoi-chang after the local election defeat in June 2002, made a comeback through unification with Chung Mong-joon. However, what the opposition must not overlook is that despite the apparent similarities between the situations in 2012 and 2002, there are fundamental differences. Above all, in 2002, the public's desire for change was expressed through the party candidate Roh Moo-hyun, but ten years later, dynamic public opinion is showing its primary expectation towards Ahn Cheol-soo, who is outside the established party system.

The image that Ahn Cheol-soo projects is, above all, that of an individual who has transcended the existing adversarial dichotomy. One of the most significant reasons for the public's disappointment with existing political parties and politics is that while people's attitudes among themselves are becoming more flexible and complex, based on pragmatic thinking, the political sphere remains trapped in an extreme dichotomy of progressive versus conservative, and ruling versus opposition. The conflicting yet flexible position of 'conservative on security, progressive on economy' aptly describes Ahn Cheol-soo's ideological stance. However, existing political parties have fundamentally understood the relationship between progressive and conservative, and ruling and opposition parties as an adversarial dichotomy and have engaged in politics of conflict.

Indeed, significant changes are occurring in the public's attitude towards politics and political parties. As shown in [Figure 4], during the Roh Moo-hyun administration, the public viewed the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party as adversarial alternatives. That is, if one was critical of the Grand National Party, they considered the Democratic Party as an alternative, and vice versa; a zero-sum perception dominated. However, by examining the changes in approval ratings for both parties during the Lee Myung-bak administration in [Figure 5], we see that the Grand National Party's approval rating changed independently, and the Democratic Party's approval rating also changed independently. This means that the correlation between the approval ratings of the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party has disappeared, and voters are evaluating each party independently.

On an individual level, according to survey results from the East Asia Institute, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research Panel, when cross-referencing favorability scores for the Saenuri Party and the Democratic Party, the proportion of 'unilaterally Saenuri Party supporters' who are favorable to the Saenuri Party and unfavorable to the Democratic Party, and conversely, 'unilaterally Democratic Party supporters' who are favorable to the Democratic Party and unfavorable to the Saenuri Party, is decreasing. The proportion of 'conflicted attitude voters' who dislike both parties or like both simultaneously is increasing, and they are forming the centrist voter bloc. They have grown to about one-third of the total electorate. Their choices will determine the presidential election. The April 11 general election demonstrated the limitations of capturing voters' hearts through negative strategies based on an adversarial dichotomy.

[Figure 4] Changes in Major Party Approval Ratings During the Roh Moo-hyun Administration (%)

[Figure 5] Changes in Major Party Approval Ratings During the Lee Myung-bak Administration (%)

2012 Presidential Election: Voters with Conflicted Attitudes Will Decide One Week Before the Vote

The 2012 presidential election is distinct from previous elections in that the Saenuri Party, holding a structural advantage, is campaigning with 'change' as its core concept, moving beyond stimulating the desire for stability, which has been the norm for the ruling party since democratization. For the opposition party, unification with a candidate other than the leader of the main opposition party has emerged as a key keyword for electoral victory. In particular, it is being tested whether the opposition can create an alliance based on positive values, moving away from the 'anti-Grand National Party coalition' that was the secret to opposition victories since democratization. Whether Park Geun-hye can create consistent change beyond mere rhetoric, and whether Ahn Cheol-soo and the opposition presidential candidates can forge an alliance value that transcends opposition to the Saenuri Party, will be the biggest variables in the 2012 presidential election.

The outcome will be determined by the final choice of the conflicted attitude voters, who hold both positive and negative views towards both the Saenuri Party and the Democratic Party. Examining their voting decisions reveals that the final choice is almost always made within a week of the election. [Figure 6] shows that during the 19th general election period, 'unilateral Saenuri Party supporters' tended to decide their preferred candidate much earlier than the election day compared to unilateral Democratic Party supporters, and unilateral Democratic Party supporters, especially conflicted attitude voters, were more likely to make their voting decision closer to the election day. As many as 71.6% of conflicted attitude voters stated they chose their final candidate within a week of the election. If this pattern holds true for the presidential election, with a month remaining until the vote, each candidate must engage in a nail-biting contest from now until election day, striving not to be eliminated from the current close race while preparing for the final showdown. This is why the uncertainty of the 2012 presidential election is drawing such particular attention. ■

[Figure 6] Timing of Candidate Decision by Party Attitude Type During the April 11 General Election (%)

Source: EAI·SBS·JoongAng Ilbo·Korea Research 2012 Election Panel Survey 2nd Round (April 2012), Jeong Han-wool's Doctoral Dissertation (2012)