[EAI Opinion Memo] Who is the President Koreans Want in 2012? A Communicative President: Park Geun-hye for Statecraft, Ahn Cheol-soo for Morality and Communication

EAI Opinion Memo No.5

Author

Kim Jun-seok, EAI Civic Politics Panel; Dongguk University

The Next President Koreans Want in 2012?

Communication with the Public 46.4%, Statecraft 27.2%, Morality 22.9%

What is the most important virtue for the next president in 2012? In this panel survey, 46.4% of respondents ranked communication skills with the public as the top priority, followed by statecraft ability at 27.2% and morality at 22.9%.

The more progressive the voter's ideological orientation, the greater the desire for the candidate's communication skills. 60% of progressive voters prioritized a president who communicates well with the public over one with excellent statecraft or high morality. It is particularly important to pay attention to the candidate selection criteria of centrist voters, who are considered a key demographic that could sway the election. 46.8% of centrist voters chose communication with the public, surpassing statecraft ability (22.9%) and morality (24.2%).

The emphasis on communication skills as a major theme in the 2012 presidential election appears to be significantly influenced by dissatisfaction with the current administration. More than half (50.4%) of respondents who gave a negative assessment of the Lee Myung-bak administration's statecraft emphasized the next president's communication skills with the public, while voters with a positive view of the current administration prioritized statecraft ability (38%). These results suggest that both ruling and opposition party candidates will need to deepen their considerations regarding empathy and communication with voters on the campaign trail.

Progressives and Centrists Value Communication; Conservatives Value Statecraft

Park Geun-hye rated 66.4% positively for statecraft; Ahn Cheol-soo only 45.5%. In terms of statecraft ability, candidate Park Geun-hye received the most favorable evaluation. 66.4% of respondents assessed Park's statecraft ability as sufficient, with 18.2% rating it as average and 15.2% as insufficient.

While the overwhelming majority of conservative voters (83.2%) expressed favorable opinions, more than half of progressive voters (50.9%) and a majority of centrist voters (61%) acknowledged Park's statecraft ability. Candidate Moon Jae-in received a positive assessment from 54% of respondents, while Professor Ahn Cheol-soo was evaluated as having 'sufficient statecraft ability' by less than half of respondents, at 45.5%. The assessment of insufficient statecraft ability was 15.1% for Moon Jae-in and 26.9% for Ahn Cheol-soo.

Statecraft: Park Geun-hye; Communication: Ahn Cheol-soo

Ahn Cheol-soo Leads in Morality; Park Trails Moon

Professor Ahn Cheol-soo received high marks in terms of morality and communication with the public. 67.3% of respondents assessed Professor Ahn's morality as sufficient, and 68.9% rated his communication skills as sufficient. In contrast, Park Geun-hye (morality 55.8%; communication skills 54.9%) and Moon Jae-in (morality 56.1%; communication skills 57.3%) received relatively lower evaluations.

Specifically, while 71% of conservative voters rated candidate Park Geun-hye as a good communicator, only 39.8% of progressives and 49.6% of centrists responded that Park's communication skills were sufficient, indicating a divergence in evaluation. The negative assessment of Park's communication style by centrist voters, along with the difficulties she faces in expanding her support base beyond her current core supporters, highlights the persistent issues of 'corridor politics' within the National Assembly.

Challenges: Park - Unconventional Communication; Ahn - Proving Governance Ability; Moon - Strengthening Presence

This panel survey provides insights into voters' perceptions of the qualities of the three main candidates, as well as important implications for each candidate's future campaign strategy. Candidate Park Geun-hye's 'sweeping' moves since the day after securing the nomination—visiting former President Roh Moo-hyun's resting place, meeting with Mrs. Lee Hee-ho, and participating in a debate on tuition fees with university students—represent a complete departure from her previous communication style. It is highly likely that this will lead to bolder choices in the formation of the general election campaign committee and in her future actions. Professor Ahn Cheol-soo's primary challenge is to dispel voters' doubts about his statecraft ability. Given his lack of public service experience and his inability to secure an independent political base, this issue will necessitate Ahn's greater reliance on a coalition with the Democratic United Party, moving beyond mere vote calculations. Candidate Moon Jae-in has not demonstrated any particular strengths compared to other candidates in terms of statecraft ability, morality, or communication skills. Even if confirmed as the nominee after the Democratic Party primaries, he appears to be in a difficult position to seize the initiative in national politics, whether in discussions about unification with Professor Ahn or in a three-way race scenario. ■

[Table 1] Most Important Virtues for the Next President (%)

[Table 2] Voter Perceptions of Presidential Candidates' Qualities (%)

Excludes 'Don't know' and 'No response'.