[EAI Opinion Memo] Challenges in Expanding Park Geun-hye's Support Base: Reasons for the Limited Convention Effect

EAI Opinion Memo No.3

Author

Lim Seong-hak, EAI Civic Politics Panel; University of Seoul

Convention Effect? Little Change Immediately After the Primary

According to the results of the 3rd panel survey conducted on August 20th by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research immediately after the Saenuri Party's national convention where Park Geun-hye was nominated as the presidential candidate, Park Geun-hye appears to be experiencing difficulties in expanding her support base.

It is true that both Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo have seen a roughly 10%P increase in support compared to the 1st survey conducted just before the general election. However, looking at the approval ratings immediately after the general election and the current ones, Park Geun-hye's support has only risen by 2%P, suggesting that the Saenuri Party's presidential primary did not achieve the expected level of success. In contrast, Ahn Cheol-soo's support increased by 6.8%P despite the absence of any significant political events. As Park's support base is not expanding, undecided voters or those who have not yet chosen a candidate, disillusioned with established politics, are shifting their support to Ahn as the possibility of his candidacy increases, narrowing the gap between the two candidates. So, what are the reasons why it is difficult for Park to expand her support? This will be analyzed in three dimensions.

[Figure 1] Presidential Election Multi-Candidate Scenario Support Trend (%)

Factor 1: Disconnect with the Public's Era-Specific Demands

If the era-specific demand in the 17th presidential election was 'economic development and advancement,' then for the 18th presidential election, it can be seen as 'communication with the public.' When asked about the desired qualities of the next president, half of the respondents, 46.4%, wanted a 'president who communicates well with the public.' Following this, 27.2% desired a 'president with excellent state management skills,' and 22.9% sought a 'moral president free from self-interest.'

In the evaluation of major candidates by the public, Park received the highest score for state management ability but scored low in communication skills. Ultimately, if Park fails to demonstrate her communication skills to the public, it will be difficult for her to attract new supporters. Her recent choice of visiting the graves of former presidents and meeting with Lee Hee-ho, the widow of former presidents Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung, as her first schedule as a presidential candidate appears to be an effort to dispel the image of being uncommunicative, and attention is focused on how these actions will affect her approval ratings.

Factor 2: Insufficient Prompt Response to Nomination Scandals

In 2002, facing a crisis of being labeled the 'cart-hauling party' due to illegal campaign funds, then-leader Park Geun-hye moved the party headquarters to a tent and successfully led the party through the 2004 general elections. This swift reformist image captured the public's attention. However, such a stance was difficult to find in the recent nomination scandal. While it is understandable to reserve judgment until the prosecution's investigation confirms the facts, this approach did not align with the public's sentiment that political corruption is no longer tolerable. When asked about Park Geun-hye's responsibility for the nomination scandal, 59.4% of respondents believed she had 'direct responsibility,' significantly higher than the 34.3% who believed she had 'no responsibility.'

Factor 3: The 'Ahn Phenomenon's' Counteracting Effect: Offsetting Female and Chungcheong Premiums

The presence of Ahn Cheol-soo acts as a factor that offsets the expansion of Park's support base. As a woman, becoming a presidential candidate in a Confucian cultural country like Korea is significant in terms of women's rights. Due to her gender, Park receives considerable support from female voters compared to other major presidential candidates.

However, there is a notable lack of difference in gender support between her and Ahn. In a hypothetical two-way race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in, 58.5% of women supported Park Geun-hye and 37.6% supported Moon Jae-in. Yet, in a hypothetical race between Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo, 48.8% of women supported Park Geun-hye and 47.0% supported Ahn. Meanwhile, after Park defended the original plan for Sejong City, she maintained high support in the Chungcheong region. With no other presidential candidates currently based in the Chungcheong region, Park's support there was expected to remain stable. In a hypothetical two-way race with Moon Jae-in, Park's high support in Chungcheong is maintained, but this 'Chungcheong premium' for Park does not appear in the hypothetical race against Ahn.

[Figure 2] Chungcheong Region (147 individuals) Presidential Support Trend (%)

The effect of Ahn Cheol-soo's potential candidacy also erodes Park's support base expansion. Comparing the period immediately after the general election (2nd survey) with the current panel survey (3rd), Park Geun-hye had 46.3% support and Ahn Cheol-soo had 49.7% support, with others at 3.9% immediately after the general election. In the current survey, Park Geun-hye has 45.3% support and Ahn Cheol-soo has 50.5% support, with others at 4.2%, indicating Ahn is slightly ahead in a two-way race. Let's examine the characteristics of those who switched from supporting Park to supporting Ahn (98 individuals) and those who withdrew their support for Park and became undecided (25 individuals) between the post-general election survey and the current survey (see Figures 3 and 4).

The group that changed their support or remained undecided is more supportive of Ahn Cheol-soo's candidacy. In the overall survey, 39.4% believed Ahn should run, while 42.5% believed he should not, indicating a majority against his candidacy. However, among the group that switched or remained undecided, 54.5% supported his candidacy and 26.8% opposed it, showing an overwhelming preference for him to run. The 'Ahn phenomenon' appears to be a factor causing Park's supporters to defect. ■

[Figure 3] Party Support Trend Change Between 2nd and 3rd Surveys

[Figure 4] Comparison of Attitudes Towards Ahn's Candidacy: Overall vs. Park Defectors