Voter Evaluations of the 19th General Election Results

1. Evaluation of the 19th General Election: Self-Destruction of the Opposition vs. Victory for Park Geun-hye

Following the 19th General Election on April 11th, which concluded with the Saenuri Party securing a majority of seats against expectations, many experts are evaluating the results not as a victory for the Saenuri Party, but rather as the self-destruction of the opposition, including the Democratic United Party. Right up until the start of the election campaign, it was widely predicted that the Democratic United Party would become the leading party in the National Assembly and even secure a majority of seats, bolstered by the anti-Lee Myung-bak government sentiment that had intensified through the 2010 local elections and the 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election.

However, once the election campaign began, the Saenuri Party, centered around interim leader Park Geun-hye, focused on creating an image of change and reform. In contrast, the opposition parties, including the Democratic United Party, relied solely on a vague sentiment of judging the government, failed to develop policies that would genuinely appeal to voters, and faced issues such as internal strife during the nomination process, discord during the election alliance between the Democratic United Party and the Unified Progressive Party, and inadequate responses to various negative factors like the controversy surrounding candidate Kim Yong-min's inappropriate remarks. These combined factors ultimately led to the Saenuri Party being handed a majority of seats.

According to the results of the second survey (April 12th-April 15th) of the '19th General Election-18th Presidential Election Panel Survey' (conducted over 7 waves), jointly planned by JoongAng Ilbo, SBS, the East Asia Institute (EAI), and Korea Research, which was conducted immediately after the election, the diagnosis by experts appears to have gained considerable consensus among general voters. When asked about the reasons for the Saenuri Party's victory, securing 152 seats, the largest proportion of respondents (38.2%) pointed to the failures of the opposition parties, such as the Democratic United Party. The proportion of respondents who attributed the victory to the ruling party's performance, including President Lee Myung-bak, interim leader Park Geun-hye, and the Saenuri Party, was 33.5%, a relatively lower figure. In contrast, only 16.7% of respondents cited candidate-specific factors, such as Saenuri Party candidates being better than opposition candidates or opposition candidates being inferior to Saenuri Party candidates.

An interesting aspect is that among voters who found reasons for the ruling party's success, the proportion who answered that the Saenuri Party performed well (4.6%) or that President Lee Myung-bak and his administration performed well (1.4%) was significantly lower than the proportion who answered that interim leader Park Geun-hye performed well (27.5%). These results suggest that voters perceived this election not as a contest of individual candidates in each constituency, but rather as a confrontation between the ruling and opposition camps, and that the evaluation of Park Geun-hye, as a strong presidential candidate, played a crucial role in this confrontation.

Of course, the evaluation of the 19th General Election is not uniform across all voters. For example, [Table 1] shows the reasons respondents attributed to the Saenuri Party's victory in the 19th General Election, broken down by generation and region. Based on generation, a significant difference was found between those under 40 and those 50 and over regarding the role of Park Geun-hye. While the proportion citing Park Geun-hye as a reason for the Saenuri Party's victory was around 22-25% for those under 40, this proportion increased to 32-35% for those 50 and over.

Regarding residential area, respondents residing in the Seoul metropolitan area and Honam attributed the Saenuri Party's victory to Park Geun-hye at a rate of around 20-23%, whereas in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region, a traditional support base for the Saenuri Party and Park Geun-hye, this proportion increased to 38.6%. Considering that younger generations have tended to support opposition parties in various elections in the 2000s, and that in this election, the opposition parties outperformed the Saenuri Party in the Seoul metropolitan area despite the overall seat distribution, the results in [Table 1] demonstrate that voters' perspectives on the 19th General Election can vary according to their political preferences.

[Figure 1] Voter Evaluations of the Reasons for the Saenuri Party's Victory (%)

[Table 1] Evaluations of the Reasons for the Saenuri Party's Victory by Generation and Region (%)

Source: 2nd Survey of the 2012 19th General Election-18th Presidential Election Panel (April 12-15)

2. Evaluation of the 19th General Election According to Voters' Political Preferences

Evaluation of the General Election by Attitude Towards Election Issues

To understand how evaluations of the Saenuri Party's victory differ according to voters' political preferences, the first aspect to consider is their attitude towards the core election issues raised by the ruling and opposition parties: the 'anti-MB' sentiment and the 'anti-opposition party' sentiment. To this end, [Table 2] categorizes respondents into four groups based on their agreement with the statements 'The government's failures under President Lee Myung-bak must be judged in this election' and 'Votes should not be given to the opposition parties that are irresponsibly changing their stance' in the first survey conducted before the election.

According to [Table 2], reflecting the general dissatisfaction and distrust towards the political establishment, the largest proportion of voters (38.3%) in the first survey conducted before the election agreed with both the 'anti-MB' sentiment advocated by the opposition and the 'anti-opposition party' sentiment advocated by the ruling party. In contrast, the proportion agreeing solely with the 'anti-MB' sentiment was 27.3%, and the proportion agreeing solely with the 'anti-opposition party' sentiment was 22.7%, both relatively low. Furthermore, 11.7% of voters stated they did not agree with either the 'anti-MB' sentiment or the 'anti-opposition party' sentiment. Ultimately, [Table 2] indicates that even with about ten days left until the election, a significant number of voters were not readily agreeing with the election agendas proposed by the major parties, and notably, the anti-government sentiment raised by the opposition did not garner the expected broad consensus.

[Table 2] Proportion of Voters Agreeing with the 'Anti-MB' Sentiment and 'Anti-Opposition Party' Sentiment (%)

Source: 1st Survey of the 2012 19th General Election-18th Presidential Election Panel (March 30-April 1)

[Table 3] Evaluation of the Reasons for the Saenuri Party's Victory by Stance on Election Issues (%)

Source: 1st-2nd Survey of the 2012 19th General Election-18th Presidential Election Panel

Subsequently, [Table 3] shows how voters evaluated the reasons for the Saenuri Party's victory after the election, based on their agreement with the 'anti-MB' sentiment or the 'anti-opposition party' sentiment prior to the election. Firstly, for 'both-sides-are-wrong' voters who agreed with both the 'anti-MB' sentiment and the 'anti-opposition party' sentiment, 36.3% cited the opposition's failures and 28.9% cited the role of Park Geun-hye as reasons for the Saenuri Party's victory, showing a similar distribution to that among all voters. In contrast, among voters who agreed only with the 'anti-MB' sentiment, nearly half attributed the Saenuri Party's victory to the opposition's failures. The proportion of 'anti-MB' voters citing Park Geun-hye's role as a reason for the Saenuri Party's victory was less than 20%. On the other hand, among 'anti-opposition party' voters, only 38.7% pointed to the opposition's failures, while the proportion citing Park Geun-hye as the reason for victory exceeded 30%.

Ultimately, [Table 3] reveals stark differences in perceptions regarding the reasons for the Saenuri Party's victory among voters holding specific political stances. Voters with a pro-ruling party orientation tend to highly evaluate the role of Park Geun-hye, whereas voters with a pro-opposition party orientation attribute the defeat to internal issues within their own camp rather than Park Geun-hye's role. To verify this interpretation more directly, [Table 4] shows how evaluations of the reasons for the Saenuri Party's victory differ according to the party support identified in the first survey conducted before the election.

General Election Evaluation by Party Support

According to [Table 4], nearly 40% of respondents who supported the Saenuri Party in the first survey cited Park Geun-hye's role as the reason for the Saenuri Party's victory in the second survey conducted after the election, a figure nearly 10 percentage points higher than those who attributed it to the failures of opposition parties like the Democratic United Party (30%). In contrast, among respondents who supported the Democratic United Party in the first survey, the proportion citing the opposition's failures was more than double that of citing Park Geun-hye. This gap was even wider among respondents who supported the Unified Progressive Party in the first survey, with nearly 65% attributing the Saenuri Party's victory to the opposition's failures, while only 13% cited Park Geun-hye, indicating a stronger tendency to downplay the significance and role of Park Geun-hye.

[Table 4] Evaluation of the Reasons for the Saenuri Party's Victory by Party Support (%)

Source: 1st-2nd Survey of the 2012 19th General Election-18th Presidential Election Panel

These differences in perception ultimately show that evaluations of the 19th General Election vary considerably depending on the presence of a strong presidential candidate one supports. That is, Saenuri Party supporters believe that the presence and role of Park Geun-hye, a strong presidential candidate, led to the Saenuri Party's victory. Conversely, supporters of the Democratic United Party or the Unified Progressive Party perceive the lack of a unifying figure capable of rallying the opposition forces as a major reason for their defeat. Interpreting this further, it suggests that opposition supporters might expect a reversal of fortunes if a presidential candidate capable of countering Park Geun-hye emerges and rallies the opposition.

Impact of Nomination Evaluation on General Election Outcome Evaluation

Finally, we will examine the differences in perceptions regarding the reasons for the Saenuri Party's victory based on how the nomination of candidates for the Saenuri Party and the Democratic United Party was evaluated. Prior to the 19th General Election, both parties experienced considerable difficulties surrounding candidate nominations. In particular, the controversy surrounding nominations was especially severe for opposition parties, including the Democratic United Party, and many people cite this as a major reason for their election defeat. Although not as severe as in the opposition parties, the Saenuri Party also faced significant controversy regarding candidate nominations, primarily centered around the conflict between the pro-Roh Moo-hyun (pro-Lee) and pro-Park factions. It can be anticipated that these evaluations of each party's candidate nominations would have had a considerable impact on voters' evaluations of the 19th General Election results.

[Table 5] Election Evaluation by Evaluation of Saenuri Party Candidate Nominations (%)

1) The original question was divided into 'Very well' and 'Generally well,' but presented as a combined category due to the extremely small number of 'Very well' responses.

Source: 1st-2nd Survey of the 2012 19th General Election-18th Presidential Election Panel

[Table 6] Election Evaluation by Evaluation of Democratic United Party Candidate Nominations (%)

1) The original question was divided into 'Very well' and 'Generally well,' but presented as a combined category due to the extremely small number of 'Very well' responses.

Source: 1st-2nd Survey of the 2012 19th General Election-18th Presidential Election Panel

First, [Table 5] shows that the more positively voters evaluated the Saenuri Party's candidate nominations, the less they attributed the Saenuri Party's victory to the opposition's failures, while the proportion citing Park Geun-hye's role significantly increased. Interestingly, regardless of how candidate nominations were evaluated, the proportion citing candidate-specific factors as reasons for the Saenuri Party's victory did not change significantly. These results suggest that even if voters are favorable towards the Saenuri Party's nomination process, they ultimately evaluate Park Geun-hye's role and leadership during the nomination process more positively than the qualifications of the nominated candidates.

In contrast, [Table 6] clearly illustrates voters' perception that the Democratic United Party's nomination failures were the most significant reason for handing victory to the Saenuri Party. The more negatively voters evaluated the Democratic United Party's candidate nominations, the higher the proportion attributing the Saenuri Party's victory to the opposition's failures. Applying the interpretation of [Table 5] to the case of the Democratic United Party, it suggests that voters perceive the lack of strong leadership capable of controlling and managing the overall election campaign, including the nomination process, as a primary reason for the defeat of the Democratic United Party and other opposition parties in the 19th General Election.

3. The 19th General Election as a Prelude to the Presidential Election

The analysis thus far indicates, first, that voters perceived the 19th General Election as a contest between parties and camps rather than a competition between individual candidates for legislative power. Second, the potential support for Park Geun-hye, currently the strongest presidential candidate, significantly influenced the outcome of the 19th General Election—or at least voters' evaluations of it.

Ultimately, the upcoming 18th Presidential Election scheduled for December is central to voters' perspectives on the results of the 19th General Election, implying that voters may have made their choices in the actual voting with the December presidential election in mind. While many voters consider Park Geun-hye's nomination as the Saenuri Party's presidential candidate almost certain, a presidential candidate capable of challenging Park Geun-hye has not yet emerged from the opposition parties. Therefore, the 19th General Election, as perceived by voters, can be interpreted as having strongly resembled a vote of confidence in Park Geun-hye, a potential future leader, rather than a mid-term evaluation or judgment of the current ruling power.

This interpretation is also reflected in how evaluations of the Saenuri Party's victory reasons differ according to preferred presidential candidates. In the first survey conducted just before the election, respondents chose whom they would vote for 'if tomorrow were the election day' among the politicians considered likely to run in the presidential election at that time. The largest proportion of respondents (31.9%) chose Park Geun-hye, followed by Ahn Cheol-soo (21.2%) and Moon Jae-in (14.8%). The proportion of those who stated they had no candidate to support also reached 8%.

According to [Table 7], voters who support Park Geun-hye in the 18th Presidential Election cite her role as the reason for the Saenuri Party's victory in the 19th General Election at a rate of nearly half. In contrast, for voters supporting Ahn Cheol-soo or Moon Jae-in, over half cite the opposition's failures as the reason, with the proportion citing Park Geun-hye's role being only 14-15%. Even among voters who stated they had no candidate to support—that is, those who do not actively support Park Geun-hye—their evaluations of the general election are similar to those of Ahn Cheol-soo and Moon Jae-in supporters.

Reversing the findings of [Table 7], the perception that the opposition's failures are the reason for the Saenuri Party's victory in the 19th General Election can be seen as reflecting the disappointment and dissatisfaction of opposition-leaning voters with the current reality where no opposition presidential candidate capable of challenging Park Geun-hye has emerged for the December election. In fact, Ahn Cheol-soo, unlike during the 2011 Seoul mayoral by-election, refrained from direct involvement in the general election, and Moon Jae-in, while focusing on the election in the Busan region, failed to establish a one-on-one contest with Park Geun-hye on a national level. Therefore, the discrepancy in the presidential election landscape between the ruling and opposition parties, with the presidential election just over eight months away, is reflected in voters' perspectives on the 19th General Election.

[Table 7] Evaluation of the Reasons for the Saenuri Party's Victory by Presidential Candidate Preference (%)

Source: 1st-2nd Survey of the 2012 19th General Election-18th Presidential Election Panel

4. Overall Assessment

Many experts assess that the so-called 'Park Geun-hye trend' within the Saenuri Party has been further strengthened through the 19th General Election. Indeed, Saenuri Party supporters also corroborate this assessment by citing the presence and role of Park Geun-hye as the most important reason for the Saenuri Party's victory, which exceeded expectations. However, if we broaden our view to all voters, the outcome of the presidential election in December still appears uncertain, despite the Saenuri Party's performance in the general election.

Opposition-leaning voters who do not support Park Geun-hye do not highly rate the influence of Park Geun-hye on the 19th General Election results. This can be interpreted to mean that the 'Park Geun-hye trend' is currently confined to her actual support base and has not gained broad consensus among voters. Rather, opposition-leaning voters are finding the reasons for their defeat in the 19th General Election within their own parties. This can be seen as reflecting their expectation that the situation could be reversed if an opposition candidate capable of challenging Park Geun-hye emerges, rallies the opposition, and demonstrates leadership in the December presidential election. ■